QB and OLB ...here's my explanation

[Astrobot]

Here’s my thinking right now. I’d love your feedback.

 

QB------After Smith and Barkley, the rest are flawed in various ways. Some are better fits (pun intended) for Hackett’s West Coast Offense (Barkley, Nassib, Smith, Jones, Wilson). Nix says they’re looking for an “accurate, tough” QB. IF Smith or Barkley is there, they take one of them, in that order. I don’t think they’ll take a second QB in the draft as they have Jackson, Corp and Fitz on the roster right now. If Fitz doesn’t take a salary cut, he’s gone and the Bills might take a developmental QB (Klein, Doege, Renfree, Sorensen) later. They can't risk falling in love with 1 QB; just do their homework and pick the quarterNassib that can run Hackett's offense.

 

LB-----Two guys who can play LB could be gone at our 8^th pick. However, their prime NFL position is not OLB34, but DE43, okay for our old D but not necessarily for Pettine (although he’d adapt). These include:

 

Damontre Moore

DE43 /OLB34 -39 (drops 39 slots on our big board if used as a OLB34)

94

Texas A&M

6'4"

250

 

Dion Jordan

DE43 / OLB34 -0

96

Oregon

6'6"

243

 

Could they help our team? Absolutely; they are Top 6 in the draft. Will they fill a hole? Yes if you think Mark Anderson’s 2 surgeries have left us dry opposite Mario at DE34. Does it satisfy our need at OLB34? No.

 

The next tier of players makes it interesting:

Barkevious Mingo

OLB34 / WILB -16

49

LSU

6'4"

240

 

Jarvis Jones

OLB34/ DE43 -0

29

Georgia

6'2"

242

 

Alec Ogletree

WILB /OLB43 -0

9

Georgia

6'3"

236

 

If the Bills decide to wait for late RD1 or RD2#41 for their QB (which I hope they do and don’t lock onto one QB), these 3 guys are more interesting because they are primarily NFL OLB34’s PLUS they each have scheme versatility. I have Mingo on my board at 8, Jones at 12 (was at 1 before the spinal stenosis story), and Ogletree at 25 (theft and dirty drug test drops him for Bills).

Why no Ziggy Ansah? DraftTek has him on their board at 34. He’s like Moore and Jordan, just worse at his second position than either of them (that’s a slide of 58 slots if you use him as a OLB34).

 

Ezekiel Ansah

Brigham Young

6'5"

270

DE43 / OLB34 -58

 

Montgomery is the other way around, the way you’d like it if you’re short on LBs like we are:

Sam Montgomery

LSU

6'4"

248

OLB34 / DE43 -6

He’s never played OLB34 so he’d only be of value if he slipped to RD2 IMHO. Surprising agility and speed. He sure can play DE in the way Pettine wants it played, but he could fall to the Bills at 41 because coaches aren’t sure how to use him. That won’t be Pettine who thinks that.

 

Would we take Arthur Brown?

 

Arthur Brown

Kansas State

6'1"

228

WILB / OLB43 -0

We think Arthur Brown is a definite possibility for the Bills, as there is zero falloff between using him at WILB next to Sheppard in the 3-4, or as the OLB opposite Bradham (or a Jets FA) when Pettine goes to 4-3. Optimally, I’d see Brown (or Montgomery) as a more of a target IF the Bills trade down (ideally, for St. Louis’s 16 and 22 first round picks. In my dreams STL wants Jarvis Jones and have no hope of waiting for him at 16, and they trade up to 8).

 

Have I mentioned that I hate formatting on this chatboard? --astro

Edited February 24, 2013 by Astrobot

[yungmack]

I think you are right to focus on a position of where there are many very good players instead of wasting a top pick on aQB of modest ability in the hope he will turn out to be a gem. I would only question giving Smith & Barkley a pass as, to my eye, neither of them is good enough to qualify as a top QB in the NFL. I will go so far as to predict that Smith will be a huge flop & Barkley will no more than okay.

[jaybee]

I think you are right to focus on a position of where there are many very good players instead of wasting a top pick on aQB of modest ability in the hope he will turn out to be a gem.

 

Agree.

 

Also, I've noticed there are several teams in need of a wide receiver. So if we pass in the 1st round on a WR the pickings might be slim later on. I wont be surprised if Buffalo selects a WR at # 8. There are some good ones out there. Guys that can potentially make an impact right off the bat. Of course we need a QB to get the ball to him !

 

I really cant settle on a QB I really like this year. Even Geno. I've seen the kid thread needles into double coverage. I've seen him miss wide open receivers. I just dont know what to think at the QB position at this point. I'll route hard for whomever they start next year.

 

Astro, thanks for the work. Good stuff there. I'm not smart enough to add much to it though !!

 

jb

[boyst]

It makes me want to select BPA. I do not know if the QB available is going to be anywhere near that. I do not think Smith is one of the top 10 or 12 best players in the draft, and I know Barkley isn't. There is a far difference in top tier CB's and LB's and mid-tier QB's, but without a bonafide top QB in this draft, and one not named Smith likely to be there at 8, would take the CB or LB first. Even in the 2nd, I'd go with the best TE on the board - which could easily be the best or 2nd best TE in the draft.

 

Falling to the third if one of the guys is there that we had interest with QB in late in the 2nd, say last 5-6 picks, look in to trading up. If not, if he is there at the third get him then, but otherwise get another LB. There will be 3 good QB's in the 4th available. I think EJ Manuel goes earlier then people think, but Glennon, Klein Scott, Nassib, Dysert, Bray, or Jones should be there. EJ Manuel just has that upside that a team will fall in love with for some reason.

 

Dysert has the mark of a career backup for me, a solid smart guy that is capable of winning when he gets put in.

[CarolinaBill]

Tyler wilson is very much in play here