Mikie2times Posted December 20, 2004 Share Posted December 20, 2004 Here are some probability's surrounding our playoff chances in the next two weeks. Each game is rated based on my prediction out of a 10 game series. For example next week I predict the Bills at 9/10. Meaning if they played San Fransisco 10 times they would win 9 of them. Probability of the Jaguars winning both games is 6/10 vs Houston = They lost the first game to Houston 8/10 vs Oakland= Oakland coming on but Jaguars are still superior Total likelihood of the Jaguars winning both= 48% Probability of the Ravens winning both games 4/10 vs Pittsburgh= The Steelers can be beat but they should have the edge at Heinz 8/10 vs Miami= Miami is coming on but the Raves are still superior Total likelihood of the Ravens winning both= 32% Probability of the Broncos winning both games 5/10= Titans can move the ball 4/10= Would be much worse for Denver if the Colts play their starters Total likelihood of the Broncos winning both= 20% Probability of the Jets losing twice. Note that my fractions represent the odds of the Jets losing the game. For example next week I predict the Jets at 7/10. Meaning if they played New England 10 times at the Giants stadium they would get beat 7 times. 7/10 vs New England= Jets are good at Giants stadium but the Patriots are top 1 or 2 in the league right now. 4/10 vs Rams= The Rams are playing some horrible football now but Bulger should be back for this game. Historically the Rams are a pretty decent home team. Total likelihood the Jets get beat twice= 28% Assuming Buffalo wins out my math puts them as the second seed in the playoffs. If you agree with my predictions the order would be as follows. Wild Card 1 Jets Wild Card 2 Bills Jaguars Ravens Broncos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATBNG Posted December 20, 2004 Share Posted December 20, 2004 Here are some probability's surrounding our playoff chances in the next two weeks. Each game is rated based on my prediction out of a 10 game series. For example next week I predict the Bills at 9/10. Meaning if they played San Fransisco 10 times they would win 9 of them. Probability of the Jaguars winning both games is 6/10 vs Houston = They lost the first game to Houston 8/10 vs Oakland= Oakland coming on but Jaguars are still superior Total likelihood of the Jaguars winning both= 48% Probability of the Ravens winning both games 4/10 vs Pittsburgh= The Steelers can be beat but they should have the edge at Heinz 8/10 vs Miami= Miami is coming on but the Raves are still superior Total likelihood of the Ravens winning both= 32% Probability of the Broncos winning both games 5/10= Titans can move the ball 4/10= Would be much worse for Denver if the Colts play their starters Total likelihood of the Broncos winning both= 20% Probability of the Jets losing twice. Note that my fractions represent the odds of the Jets losing the game. For example next week I predict the Jets at 7/10. Meaning if they played New England 10 times at the Giants stadium they would get beat 7 times. 7/10 vs New England= Jets are good at Giants stadium but the Patriots are top 1 or 2 in the league right now. 4/10 vs Rams= The Rams are playing some horrible football now but Bulger should be back for this game. Historically the Rams are a pretty decent home team. Total likelihood the Jets get beat twice= 28% Assuming Buffalo wins out my math puts them as the second seed in the playoffs. If you agree with my predictions the order would be as follows. Wild Card 1 Jets Wild Card 2 Bills Jaguars Ravens Broncos 168281[/snapback] You're making a mistake at the end - you only need one fo the three teams (Jacks, Balt, Denver) to win out to eliminate the Bills (barring the Jets and 3 way scenarios, which you say is not a factor 3/4 times). So it's 48% + 32% + 20% divided by some factor for overlap...that's taking it down to 20% or so, and that's assuming the Bills beat Pittsburgh (which is not a 100% prop). I also think you're underestimating Denver as crappy as they look - I think they're better than 50% to win at Tennessee. They'll be a 3 point favorite or so. That's not to say that you may not be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crackur Posted December 20, 2004 Share Posted December 20, 2004 You're making a mistake at the end - you only need one fo the three teams (Jacks, Balt, Denver) to win out to eliminate the Bills (barring the Jets and 3 way scenarios, which you say is not a factor 3/4 times). So it's 48% + 32% + 20% divided by some factor for overlap...that's taking it down to 20% or so, and that's assuming the Bills beat Pittsburgh (which is not a 100% prop). I also think you're underestimating Denver as crappy as they look - I think they're better than 50% to win at Tennessee. They'll be a 3 point favorite or so. That's not to say that you may not be correct. 168283[/snapback] I think ur wrong..............we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATBNG Posted December 20, 2004 Share Posted December 20, 2004 I think ur wrong..............we'll see 168289[/snapback] About the math? Or odds? Do you have any reasoning? By the way, early odds on next week via my offline sports book: Denver -4 at Tennessee Buffalo -10 at San Francisco Houston at Jacksonville -6. All the other games are OFF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikie2times Posted December 20, 2004 Author Share Posted December 20, 2004 You're making a mistake at the end - you only need one fo the three teams (Jacks, Balt, Denver) to win out to eliminate the Bills (barring the Jets and 3 way scenarios, which you say is not a factor 3/4 times). So it's 48% + 32% + 20% divided by some factor for overlap...that's taking it down to 20% or so, and that's assuming the Bills beat Pittsburgh (which is not a 100% prop). I also think you're underestimating Denver as crappy as they look - I think they're better than 50% to win at Tennessee. They'll be a 3 point favorite or so. That's not to say that you may not be correct. 168283[/snapback] I didn't make a mistake. My prediction was based on each team and their percentages of winning out or losing out (Jets). I did not attempt to create a collective probability of the Bills chances. Rather, I created a individual probability's for each teams chances, ranked them in order, and assumed the Bills to win out. The reason I assumed the Bills to win out is because they must do so for any of this to be relevant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACTOBILLSFAN Posted December 20, 2004 Share Posted December 20, 2004 I also think you're underestimating Denver as crappy as they look - I think they're better than 50% to win at Tennessee. They'll be a 3 point favorite or so. That's not to say that you may not be correct. 168283[/snapback] Have you even watched this team in the last 4 weekS??? If you have how in the hell can you claim that he is underestimating Denver??? They scored 17 points against KC!!! Some CFL teams would put up 17 on KC! Denver is done because Plummer seems to throw to the other team a lot and their defense is pretty porous and Tenn can put points up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest cal t Posted December 20, 2004 Share Posted December 20, 2004 You're making a mistake at the end - you only need one fo the three teams (Jacks, Balt, Denver) to win out to eliminate the Bills (barring the Jets and 3 way scenarios, which you say is not a factor 3/4 times). So it's 48% + 32% + 20% divided by some factor for overlap...that's taking it down to 20% or so, and that's assuming the Bills beat Pittsburgh (which is not a 100% prop). I also think you're underestimating Denver as crappy as they look - I think they're better than 50% to win at Tennessee. They'll be a 3 point favorite or so. That's not to say that you may not be correct. 168283[/snapback] ATBNG..u r correct....you have to combine those probabilities . They dont work individually. And they take the % down to the 20 range.--still not that bad of a shot though. The bills could make it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATBNG Posted December 20, 2004 Share Posted December 20, 2004 Have you even watched this team in the last 4 weekS??? If you have how in the hell can you claim that he is underestimating Denver??? They scored 17 points against KC!!! Some CFL teams would put up 17 on KC! Denver is done because Plummer seems to throw to the other team a lot and their defense is pretty porous and Tenn can put points up. 168321[/snapback] I have seen them, and am not impressed, but I only use Vegas lines to make my assumptions about which team "should" win. That is the best measure because that represents the collective feelings of millions of gamblers which side "should" win. He is underestimating Denver because he is givign them 5/10 against Tennessee (when they are in reality 4 point favorites) and 4/10 against the Colts (where I project they will also be favored since the game only has about a .1% chance of meaning anything to Indianapolis). If you feel very strongly about Denver being overrated, I suggest that you look into grabbing Tennessee at home with a four point head start this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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