Orton's Arm Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 (edited) I agree. For every Peyton Manning/Troy Aikman/John Elway, there's a Ryan Leaf/Alex Smith/Akili Smith/Tim Couch/JaMarcus Russell/David Carr/Jeff George/Joey Harrington. There's also the (occasional) Tom Brady (6th round)/Joe Montana (3rd round)/Johnny Unitas (9th round)/Bart Starr (17th round)/Daryle Lamonica (24th round!?!?!) So the round a team picks a QB in is not nearly as important as how good an evaluator of talent the folks doing the picking are! I have confidence in Nix. GO BILLS! It's true that not every franchise quarterback is taken in the first round. Since the year 2000, how many franchise QBs have been taken in rounds 2 - 7, or as UDFAs? Let's see if I miss anyone . . . 2nd round: Drew Brees, 32nd overall 3rd round: Matt Schaub 4th round: nobody 5th round: nobody 6th round: Tom Brady 7th round: nobody UDFAs: nobody That's three players--three!--over the last ten+ years. That's 0.009 players per team per year. On average, a typical NFL team will acquire a non-first round franchise QB once every 106 years. Forgive me if I seem a bit impatient, but . . . Edit: the Patriots had two 5th round picks back in the 2000 draft. The first of those picks was used on a TE by the name of Dave Stachelski. Stachelski's NFL career was two seasons long, and included zero starts. Their second 5th round pick was used on Jeff Marriott, for whom no position is listed, and who apparently didn't make the Patriots' final roster. The Patriots also had two picks in the sixth round of the 2000 draft. The first of those two picks was used on Antwan Harris, a cornerback whose NFL career lasted six seasons, and included two starts. The second of the Patriots' two sixth round picks was used on Tom Brady. Maybe the Patriots are better at talent evaluation than most other teams, thereby giving their later round picks a higher than normal chance to work out. But it would be extremely foolish to rely on a strategy like this to find the next franchise quarterback. Late round picks are a lot like lottery tickets. Most of the time when you scratch away that silver coating, you find you've picked a Stachelski or a Marriott. Even on those rare occasions when you pick a winner, there's no telling which position that winner will happen to play. Edited August 12, 2011 by Edwards' Arm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewcity Cheesehead Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 It's true that not every franchise quarterback is taken in the first round. Since the year 2000, how many franchise QBs have been taken in rounds 2 - 7, or as UDFAs? Let's see if I miss anyone . . . 2nd round: Drew Brees, 32nd overall 3rd round: Matt Schaub 4th round: nobody 5th round: nobody 6th round: Tom Brady 7th round: nobody UDFAs: nobody That's three players--three!--over the last ten+ years. That's 0.009 players per team per year. On average, a typical NFL team will acquire a non-first round franchise QB once every 106 years. Forgive me if I seem a bit impatient, but . . . 2nd round: Kevin Kolb 6th round: Matt Hasselbeck 7th round: Matt Cassel UDFAs: Tony Romo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turbosrrgood Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 (edited) Yeah obviously there are no locks no matter where you are picking...Yes you can nab great players later in the first, and occasionally later in the draft. BUT, many special players come early in the draft. The Bills have been hoping to get a "diamond in the rough" and "bargains" for way too long...We all know how that's worked out...I'd love to see us actually go for one of the TOP players, particularly at QB. I think we got the TOP player in the entire draft this past year, which we couldn't have done picking 10th +. Personally I'm not satisfied winning 5-9 games a year...I don't see anything to celebrate in getting your 5th win in week 12 (unless it helps knock the Jets out of the playoffs) 2nd round: Kevin Kolb 6th round: Matt Hasselbeck 7th round: Matt Cassel UDFAs: Tony Romo I'll pass on all of them, not much of an upgrade over Fitz if any. Edited August 12, 2011 by Turbosrrgood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDaDdy Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 Yeah obviously there are no locks no matter where you are picking...Yes you can nab great players later in the first, and occasionally later in the draft. BUT, many special players come early in the draft. The Bills have been hoping to get a "diamond in the rough" and "bargains" for way too long...We all know how that's worked out...I'd love to see us actually go for one of the TOP players, particularly at QB. I think we got the TOP player in the entire draft this past year, which we couldn't have done picking 10th +. Personally I'm not satisfied winning 5-9 games a year...I don't see anything to celebrate in getting your 5th win in week 12 (unless it helps knock the Jets out of the playoffs) I'll pass on all of them, not much of an upgrade over Fitz if any. The only guy in that list that is an upgrade is Romo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turbosrrgood Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 (edited) The only guy in that list that is an upgrade is Romo. Yeah he was borderline for me...The guy can throw and makes a ton of plays...BUT he makes a ton of mistakes too, and he is the opposite of clutch, at least so far in his career. I suppose even with that he could be an upgrade over Fitz, depending on how you rate Fitz. Edited August 12, 2011 by Turbosrrgood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewcity Cheesehead Posted August 12, 2011 Share Posted August 12, 2011 (edited) If you guys want to look into a QB that would help out the Bills, check out Matt Flynn of the Packers who's set to be a FA next season, and he'll want to seek out a starting job. We've seen him play very well in the preseason and in the one game he started last season @New England (and almost won). His biggest knock is that he doesn't have a very strong arm, but he seems to have the composure and the attitude that all the great QB's have. He's a very accurate passer, and makes smart decisions, and he's a proven winner since he led LSU to a National Championship title in 2008. The only reason the Packers haven't shopped him for a draft pick is because he's their only capable backup QB. I'm convinced he'll be an above average starting quarterback once he gets the chance... BTW, Packers drafted him in the 7th round in '08. EDIT: I think its also worth mentioning that its not only about DRAFTING good quarterbacks... its also about DEVELOPING good quarterbacks. If you draft the best QB but don't have the coaching staff to translate potential to performance, you'll have a mediocre QB. Which is IMO the case with Flynn. Mike McCarthy is a former QB coach, and Tom Clements is a very good QB coach, and every offseason (with the exception of this last one due to the lockout) the Packers put on a "quarterback school" where all quarterbacks will get together with McCarthy and Clements and go back to square one and work on the fundamentals of quarterbacking. Basically a dedicated mini-camp just for QB's. Edited August 12, 2011 by Brewcity Cheesehead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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