Some stats to think about ...

[Guest Guest_Coach_Tuesday]

Great thread (minus the over-defensive anti-crusade crusaders who seem to be running the Board these days).

 

I'd be curious to know what Willis' stats are on 1st down compared to TH. I'm guessing you'll find some improvement there. Also, while I love stats, if you've WATCHED Willis and TH play over the last year, you'd probably agree that Willis has a knack for turning nothing plays into positive yardage, something Travis used to excel at but seemed to slip at (literally!) late last year and early this season.

 

Finally, those stats tell me NOTHING about the real, key difference in my book between the two backs - PASS PROTECTION. It's the sacks, stupid. Willis performs, Travis did not, in that key, overlooked area.

[Matt in KC]

I guess internet message boards are a good way to blow off steam rather than kicking the dog or punching the wife??? 

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...or maybe in addition to kicking the dog and punching the wife?

 

Thanks for the stats Traveling.... I hope other teams reach the same conclusions when contemplating a trade for henry.

 

I do think WM is a superior back, but the Henry deserves a lot of respect for what he accomplished as well. He's a middle-of-the-pack starting RB, and probably the league's best #2 (when healthy enough to play).

[Guest Guest_Coach_Tuesday]

and probably the league's best #2 (when healthy enough to play).

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That would be Jerome Bettis, actually. But TH is right up there.

[Zamboni Man]

What I like about McGahee the most is that the guy can actually pick up the blitz. Hasn't everybody who's had a similar injury to McGahee said that it takes at least 3 years to get back to 100%? I'd venture to say that McGahee's injury was by the far the worst knee injury I've seen somebody come back from. With that injury, defenses stacking 8 in the box and blitzing to try and shut down Bledsoe, I'm impressed enough to leave him as our #1 horse in the backfield because of the level of play he's brought to the table this season.

[Guest Guest_Coach_Tuesday]

Um, by the way, this is the ONE THREAD discussing x's and o's on the first half of the TSW page, yet it's getting NO PLAY.

 

WAKE THE FUG UP, WALLERS!!!! WE'RE IN THE PLAYOFF HUNT.

 

Come on, people! Who the hell cares who Rudyc80 oogled at last night, what you'd like for Christmas, or whether Mark Schlereth answered a Bills question in "fact-or-fiction." Cripes, people! This is SORRY!

[TravelingDad48]

Thanks for the support .. believe it or not digging those numbers up and making that post took a good hour .. which equals about 300 of the posts people do here !

 

I will look for yardage by down ... would be interesting I am sure

 

I agree WM does seem to make positive yardage out of nothing .. but having a bum foot sure would stop you from driving forward also.

 

If this is where WM is at year one and it takes 3 years then it sure does look promising, but also hate to see TH get dumped on after being a pretty fair running back for a few years.

 

Pass protection is also key - line play - a passing attack that opens up the running - being ahead - good play selection - and I am sure there are a dozen more.

 

My worry is we have beat the teams we were much better than - lets see how we do against a good team in their place (Cinncy) and then a VERY good team at ours (Pittsburgh).

 

If the Offence can score 24 a game I think the D can hold most if not all teams to less. I still worry about our passing D but with TV back its sure looks better !

[Dan Gross]

Great thread (minus the over-defensive anti-crusade crusaders who seem to be running the Board these days).

 

I'd be curious to know what Willis' stats are on 1st down compared to TH.  I'm guessing you'll find some improvement there.  Also, while I love stats, if you've WATCHED Willis and TH play over the last year, you'd probably agree that Willis has a knack for turning nothing plays into positive yardage, something Travis used to excel at but seemed to slip at (literally!) late last year and early this season. 

 

Finally, those stats tell me NOTHING about the real, key difference in my book between the two backs - PASS PROTECTION.  It's the sacks, stupid.  Willis performs, Travis did not, in that key, overlooked area.

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It's too bad that even "stat heavy" sites don't carry "Yards After Contact" stats, as it feels like McGahee excels over Henry in that area, but I'm interested in seeing it. Henry at his best was good at YAC when it came to carrying people and falling forward. McGahee seems to have a way to "power through" a pile to its end point and to shed tackles.

 

Anyway, to the first down stats, McGahee is averaging 4.3 YPC on 1st down, while Henry was 3.1 this year, 3.6 last year, and over his career is 3.8. McGahee gets progressively fewer yards on 2nd and 3rd down, while Travis gets progressively higher yards. (yahoo has those stats, plus many other situationals...)

 

Another stat that I'd like to see is number of runs over 10 yards. Just looking at the "longest run" stats in the game logs, he has yet to have a game where his longest run is under 10 yards, and in 5 games his longest run is 20 or greater. Henry last year had three games where his longest run was under 10 yards, and had 4 games in which his longest run was 20 or greater. Just to get a breakdown of number of - yard plays, 0-5 yard plays, 5-10 yard plays, etc would be interesting to see...

 

Another thing (besides blitz pickup) that just doesn't show up on the stats is "field vision." He has the patience to wait for the play to develop before him and he does show some ability to find a "plan B" on the fly. Of course improvisation can hurt as well, but he seems to find success more often than not.

[Guest Guest_Coach_Tuesday]

Anyway, to the first down stats, McGahee is averaging 4.3 YPC on 1st down, while Henry  was 3.1 this year, 3.6 last year, and over his career is 3.8.  McGahee gets progressively fewer yards on 2nd and 3rd down, while Travis gets progressively higher yards.  (yahoo has those stats, plus many other situationals...)

 

Great find, thanks. That alone represents a HUGE difference IMO. Having second-and-short makes Bledsoe's and the line's job way, way easier.

[maddog]

 

Left 23% of the time, 3.58 yards, #10 in the league

Middle 54% of the time, 3.15 yards, #28 in the league

Right 23% of the time, 2.90 yards, #26 in the league

 

Just some food for thought !

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This info can't be correct as it would imply Buffalo's average per rush is somewhere around 3.2 when it is actually 3.8. Maybe they are using "scrimmage yards" or some other stat like that.

 

Regarding Willis, his ypc is 3.8 which is just about the same as LaDainian Tomlinson who is at 3.9. I don't think there is any doubt about the quality of back that LT is.

[BRH]

I don't think TravelingDad was trying to argue a position either, although I can certainly see why the Travis-bashers and Willis-lovers got all up in arms.

 

I love stats myself, but they never tell the whole story. I'm willing to bet that Willis has a better ypc in the second half than in the first, for example, and I'd like to see his ypc numbers on those all-important "clock-eating last drives." I'll bet they're a lot higher than 3.8.

 

You want to see a misleading stat? Try last year's "#2 overall defense." That didn't mean squat because we had a record-low 18 turnovers. Just for comparison, this defense has forced 18 turnovers in the LAST FOUR GAMES alone.

[Dan Gross]

I don't think TravelingDad was trying to argue a position either, although I can certainly see why the Travis-bashers and Willis-lovers got all up in arms.

 

I love stats myself, but they never tell the whole story.  I'm willing to bet that Willis has a better ypc in the second half than in the first, for example, and I'd like to see his ypc numbers on those all-important "clock-eating last drives."  I'll bet they're a lot higher than 3.8.

 

You want to see a misleading stat?  Try last year's "#2 overall defense."  That didn't mean squat because we had a record-low 18 turnovers.  Just for comparison, this defense has forced 18 turnovers in the LAST FOUR GAMES alone.

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As I mentioned in my previous response, All those kinds of stats are right here:

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/players/6359/situational

You can also click on "split stats" to see a variety of other types of stats related to game conditions (field type, home, away, conference/division, etc).

[BRH]

Great stuff. I notice Willis is averaging 4.5 ypc in the fourth quarter, 4.5 ypc on 1st and 10, and 5.1 ypc on carries 21-25. Also 4.4 ypc on carries 11-25.

[BRH]

Also, on 1st and 10: 4.5 ypc = 2nd and 5 or 6

2nd and 3-7: 3.8 ypc = 3rd and 1 or 2

3rd and less than 3: 1.6 ypc = first down, or close to it.

4th and less than 3: 15.3 ypc = first dooooown

[YOOOOOO]

So basically in Mcgahee's first year he is as good a runner as Henry....Imagine next year when Mcgahee is 100% and god willing gets his speed back....WoW we got a complete RB here boys....

 

 

And thats no knock on Henry who i think is a top15 back in this league himself...It's just Mcgahee has the potential to(and i think will) be a top5 back in this league...

[1billsfan]

 

Evans - 52 for 587 yards (11.2 avg) and 6 TDs and catches 63% of the balls thrown him.  9 over 20 yards and 4 over 40 yards.

 

 

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Bullcrap! Lee Evans has only dropped a handfull of balls this season. Four tops! What source did you pull that from? This is a bogus stat if I ever saw one.

[YOOOOOO]

Bullcrap!   Lee Evans has only dropped a handfull of balls this season. Four tops! What source did you pull that from? This is a bogus stat if I ever saw one.

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63% i think counts all the balls thrown his way....The ones bounced to him, overthrown, ones he has dropped and caught...

[tornado681]

I have to agree with Kelso and Traveling. He didn't post the stats to create a "trade Willis because he sucks thread" but to just point out some interesting stats. I'm thinking that the point is that the offense still hasn't really turned the corner and is still, in some ways, stuck in the mud. Willis's stats might be a bit misleading though. The last handful of games, the Bills have tried to control the clock at the end of the game and other teams are playing to defend the run first, which in turn cuts into the YPC stat. Though that isn't the only factor, I believe the line is still a work in progress and isn't as dominating as the 100 yd games tend to make you think they are.

Nice job on digging up these stats. It shows that it's a team game and without help form ST and the D, the Bills would be in serious trouble.

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How I see it is that most teams committ to stoping the run and make Bledsoe and our WRs beat them. Do you blame them? I think a really good stat to look at would be how many yards McGahee has after first contact compared to the rest of the backs in the league. Not sure if this stat exists or not. IMO, he bounces off 1 or two guys before he is brought down. When teams are putting 8 guys in the box WM is going to have less yards.

 

Also, another thing Ive noticed the last couple of weeks is how great the play action has been working. It seems to me every time Bledsoe does a play fake, he has a great amount of time in the pocket, more so than when he just drops back to pass. BUF uses the run to open up the pass. Having runs of 0 and 1 yards are worth it if the D overcommits to WM and allows Bledsoe to zip and 17 yarder to Moulds.

 

Take E. James, for example...he is having a tremendous year...but Im sure his great stats are due to the fact that opposing D's are crapping their pants about Manning and co.