OldTimer1960 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 (edited) Below are the last several #3 overall picks. Looking at the list, I still strongly believe that the Bills' best strategy is to find a "safe" player with a "high floor". Of the last 10 3rd overall picks: 4 (40%) are flat busts/major disappointments: Tyson Jackson, Vince Young, Joey Harrington, Gerard Warren. I'd also add Braylon Edwards as a mild to moderate disappointment and the jury is out on Gerald McCoy. From ProFootballWeekly.com: Overview: The past decade has been good to players taken with the third pick in the draft. A couple of the league's top wideouts have been selected with the pick, and the Falcons got a pretty good quarterback in Matt Ryan. PFW found that the No. 3 pick, which is held by the Bills this year, has welcomed some top players into the league in the past 10 years. 2010: Buccaneers select Oklahoma DT Gerald McCoy It took McCoy a while to start playing a high level, but it finally looked like he was putting it all together before a torn left biceps ended his season after 13 games. McCoy has a ton of potential and is expected to be a building block in Tampa Bay. 2009: Chiefs select LSU DE Tyson Jackson Jackson wasn't very impressive in his 14 starts for the Chiefs as a rookie and was unable to take a step forward in 2010. He started just three games last season, tallying 31 tackles and only one sack. 2008: Falcons select Boston College QB Matt Ryan Ryan has become everything an NFL team looks for in a franchise quarterback. He is constantly improving and is coming off the best season of his career in '10, in which he threw for 3,705 yards and 28 touchdowns. 2007: Browns select Wisconsin OT Joe Thomas Thomas has made the Pro Bowl each year he has been in the league and has never missed a start. At 6-6, 312 pounds, the strong, athletic tackle is extremely effective in pass support and can run-block just as well. 2006: Titans select Texas QB Vince Young A winning record as a starting quarterback (30-17) in the NFL is all Young has going for him. He clashed with former Titans head coach Jeff Fisher throughout his career and, even though Fisher is gone, he was told by the team that it was moving on without him. He has thrown as many touchdown passes as interceptions (42). 2005: Browns select Michigan WR Braylon Edwards Edwards had 80 catches for 1,289 yards and 16 touchdowns with the Browns in 2007, the lone season that he appeared to be a true No. 1 receiver. Struggles at the quarterback position didn't help his development before he was eventually traded to the Jets in October ’09. 2004: Cardinals select Pittsburgh WR Larry Fitzgerald Fitzgerald has emerged as one of the best wideouts in the game. He is a hard worker with tremendous body control, can catch the ball in traffic and does everything you would expect from a No. 1 receiver. His performance in leading the Cardinals to the Super Bowl in 2008 was historic — 30 catches, 546 yards and seven touchdowns in four games. 2003: Texans select Miami (Fla.) WR Andre Johnson The AFC's best receiver, if not the best wideout in the NFL, Johnson has the potential to be a Hall of Famer. He has produced five seasons of 1,000-plus yards — including three in a row — has 50 career TD receptions and is a five-time Pro Bowler. 2002: Lions select Oregon QB Joey Harrington Harrington had some ability, but his fragile ego got in the way of him becoming a dependable starter. He spent seven seasons in the league, making 76 starts, and threw 79 touchdowns and 85 interceptions. 2001: Browns select Florida DT Gerard Warren Warren, nicknamed "Big Money," was known for his athletic abilities early in his career but was never able to live up to expectations during his four seasons in Cleveland. He was traded to the Broncos for a fourth-round pick in '05 and has played for four teams in his career, including a solid season in New England in ’10. Edited April 27, 2011 by OldTimer1960 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bangarang Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 (edited) I believe I read that historically, the 3rd overall pick has seen the most players either make a Pro Bowl or be elected to the Hall of Fame. Edited April 27, 2011 by Bangarang Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldTimer1960 Posted April 27, 2011 Author Share Posted April 27, 2011 I believe I read that historically, the 3rd overall pick has seen the most players either make a Pro Bowl or be elected to the Hall of Fame. I don't disagree that you can get an outstanding player at #3. All that I am saying is to adjust expectations for the 3rd overall pick. It is maybe a 60-70% success rate rather than a slam-dunk based on the last 10 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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