Players we should have drafted

[silvermike]

I think an effective way to evaluate draft picks is to compare the player your team got with the next two players drafted overall, and the next two drafted at his position. This won't fault you for grabbing Erik Flowers instead of Tom Brady, but will catch your choice to pick Aaron Maybin instead of Brian Orakpo. Sound reasonable? I'll grade each pick on a scale from 1 to 4 (one point for each player you "beat." Who's better is obviously subjective, so please correct me. Also, I'm going to award ties against the team: your pick SHOULD be better than the next guy off the board.

 

C.J Spiller vs. Tyson Alualu, Anthony Davis, Ryan Matthews, and Javid Best

Score: 0. After one year, the system's tough to use, but I think - narrowly - that I'd like any of those four players.

 

Aaron Maybin vs. Knowshon Moreno, Brian Orakpo, Brian Orakpo, Larry English

Score: 0Well, we all knew Maybin was going to get a goose egg. I'm not sure whether it's fair or not to count Orakpo twice; he shows up in both categories. Ultimately, I think that double-counting him is the right thing because it's a top-level job for a scouting staff to identify the right choice between two very similarly-rated prospects.

 

Eric Wood vs. Hakeem Nicks, Kenny Britt, Max Unger, Antoine Caldwell

Score: 3. Nicks is a great player, and Britt is emerging, but so is Wood. Unger and Caldwell, I think, have falled short of Wood at Center. If you want to refigure this for guards, go ahead - position can be a fudgy area.

 

Leodis McKelvin vs. Ryan Clady, Jonathan Stewart, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Aqib Talib

Score: 1. Stewart has been pretty disappointing.

 

Marshawn Lynch vs. Adam Carriker, Darrell Revis, Kenny Irons, Chris Henry

Score: 3. Revis is dynamite, but this pick worked out all right.

 

Donte Whitner vs. Ernie Sims, Matt Leinart, Jason Allen, Daniel Bullocks;

Score: 2. This is a very hard call to make. Leinart and Bullocks both washed out; Allen became a cornerback with some success, and Ernie Sims strikes me as a basically similar player, though I've barely seen him play. I think you could make a case for at least a 3 here. Here, the system fails to catch some things - if the next two teams drafting do poorly, you can really get too much credit (Ngata was drafted several picks later).

 

John McCargo vs. Marcedes Lewis, DeAngelo Williams, Claude Wroten, Dusty Dvoracek

Score: 2. The system is struggling here - Wroten and Dvoracek were worse that McCargo by a long shot. And he's terrible!

 

In any case, the total score here is 1.57 in the post-Donahoe era. That's not...great. But let's compare it to the Patriots

 

Devin McCourty vs. Jared Odrick, Kyle Wilson, Kyle Wilson, Chris Cook

Score: 4. Good start.

 

Jerod Mayo vs. Leodis McKelvin, Ryan Clady, Curtis Lofton, Jordan Lizon

Score: 3. Clady holds this one off

 

Brandon Merriweather vs. Jon Beason, Anthony Spencer, Eric Weddle, Gerald Alexander

Score: 3. Slight edge to Beason, I think

 

Laurence Maroney vs. Manny Lawson, Davin Joseph, DeAngelo Williams, Joseph Addai

Score: 0. Sometimes, even Billy gets one wrong.

 

So that's an average of 2.5 - considerably better than us. Sound fair?

[buffaloaggie]

I think an effective way to evaluate draft picks is to compare the player your team got with the next two players drafted overall, and the next two drafted at his position. This won't fault you for grabbing Erik Flowers instead of Tom Brady, but will catch your choice to pick Aaron Maybin instead of Brian Orakpo. Sound reasonable? I'll grade each pick on a scale from 1 to 4 (one point for each player you "beat." Who's better is obviously subjective, so please correct me. Also, I'm going to award ties against the team: your pick SHOULD be better than the next guy off the board.

 

C.J Spiller vs. Tyson Alualu, Anthony Davis, Ryan Matthews, and Javid Best

Score: 0. After one year, the system's tough to use, but I think - narrowly - that I'd like any of those four players.

 

Aaron Maybin vs. Knowshon Moreno, Brian Orakpo, Brian Orakpo, Larry English

Score: 0Well, we all knew Maybin was going to get a goose egg. I'm not sure whether it's fair or not to count Orakpo twice; he shows up in both categories. Ultimately, I think that double-counting him is the right thing because it's a top-level job for a scouting staff to identify the right choice between two very similarly-rated prospects.

 

Eric Wood vs. Hakeem Nicks, Kenny Britt, Max Unger, Antoine Caldwell

Score: 3. Nicks is a great player, and Britt is emerging, but so is Wood. Unger and Caldwell, I think, have falled short of Wood at Center. If you want to refigure this for guards, go ahead - position can be a fudgy area.

 

Leodis McKelvin vs. Ryan Clady, Jonathan Stewart, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Aqib Talib

Score: 1. Stewart has been pretty disappointing.

 

Marshawn Lynch vs. Adam Carriker, Darrell Revis, Kenny Irons, Chris Henry

Score: 3. Revis is dynamite, but this pick worked out all right.

 

Donte Whitner vs. Ernie Sims, Matt Leinart, Jason Allen, Daniel Bullocks;

Score: 2. This is a very hard call to make. Leinart and Bullocks both washed out; Allen became a cornerback with some success, and Ernie Sims strikes me as a basically similar player, though I've barely seen him play. I think you could make a case for at least a 3 here. Here, the system fails to catch some things - if the next two teams drafting do poorly, you can really get too much credit (Ngata was drafted several picks later).

 

John McCargo vs. Marcedes Lewis, DeAngelo Williams, Claude Wroten, Dusty Dvoracek

Score: 2. The system is struggling here - Wroten and Dvoracek were worse that McCargo by a long shot. And he's terrible!

 

In any case, the total score here is 1.57 in the post-Donahoe era. That's not...great. But let's compare it to the Patriots

 

Devin McCourty vs. Jared Odrick, Kyle Wilson, Kyle Wilson, Chris Cook

Score: 4. Good start.

 

Jerod Mayo vs. Leodis McKelvin, Ryan Clady, Curtis Lofton, Jordan Lizon

Score: 3. Clady holds this one off

 

Brandon Merriweather vs. Jon Beason, Anthony Spencer, Eric Weddle, Gerald Alexander

Score: 3. Slight edge to Beason, I think

 

Laurence Maroney vs. Manny Lawson, Davin Joseph, DeAngelo Williams, Joseph Addai

Score: 0. Sometimes, even Billy gets one wrong.

 

So that's an average of 2.5 - considerably better than us. Sound fair?

A different way to look at things, I like it, but saying Jonathan Stewart has been a disappointment is a stretch. He's a part time back averaging 900 yards a season, though he took a step back this past year, as did the Panthers. I would not call him a disappointment. He scored 10 TD's in each of his first two seasons.

 

Just the fact that the Bills have taken three Running Backs in the first round in the past eight years should tell you how terrible the thought process has been at One Bills Drive. Our starting RB this year is an undrafted FA, and the best rookie RB this year was an undrafted FA. RB's can be found other places besides wasting a 1st rounder on one.

[silvermike]

A different way to look at things, I like it, but saying Jonathan Stewart has been a disappointment is a stretch. He's a part time back averaging 900 yards a season, though he took a step back this past year, as did the Panthers. I would not call him a disappointment. He scored 10 TD's in each of his first two seasons.

 

Just the fact that the Bills have taken three Running Backs in the first round in the past eight years should tell you how terrible the thought process has been at One Bills Drive. Our starting RB this year is an undrafted FA, and the best rookie RB this year was an undrafted FA. RB's can be found other places besides wasting a 1st rounder on one.

 

Yeah, I was working quickly. You're right - Stewart has probably been more successful than McKelvin up to this point. And probably will be if he's ever a feature back. I was more trying to lay out the method than apply it flawlessly. That's the subjective part.

 

Also, I guess this only really tests your scouts - how good are the players on the board? It doesn't do the other key part of drafting: evaluating your own talent. Even if Whitner scored a four, he still might have been a bad pick because of our decision to abandon Lawyer Milloy, etc. But I think it's at least a start.

[San-O]

I think it was posted several months ago, maybe more then that, but the Buffalo Bills

I believe were found to have fewer 1st and 2rd round starteds than anyone else on the NFL.

 

This really speaks volumes when you consider this was just a 4-12 team.