Playoff Possibilities

[maddog]

First things first, we cannot overstate how big the Cinci/Balt SD/Den and Pitt/Jax games were yesterday for our playoff chances. They dramatically improved the possibility of the Bills getting in.

 

I'm a number cruncher who does statistical analysis for a living. So I figured I would play out the remaining schedule to see the chances of the Bills making the playoffs if they win the rest of their games. The following are the contenders schedules with the likelihood of them winning the game (my estimates)

 

Jets - at Pitt(25%) Seattle(65%) NE(25%) at St Louis (45%)

Baltimore - NYG(75%) at Indy(25%) at Pitt(30%) Miami(90%)

Jacksonville - Chic(70%) at GB(30%) Hous(60%) at Oak(50%)

Denver - Miami(90%) at KC(50%) at Tenn(50%) Indy(50%)

 

Based on those likelihoods, here are the probabilities of making the playoffs (yes, I figured out tie-breakers!)

 

NY Jets 66%

Buffalo 56%

Denver 46%

Baltimore 25%

Jacksonville 8%

 

Of course, we all know they play the games on the field and upsets happen. But it is nice to know that if the Bills win out, they have a pretty good shot at getting in.

 

There are some big games/pitfalls.

 

If the Jets beat NE, our probability of making the playoffs goes from 56% to 37% since we will lose the tie-breaker to the Jets.

 

If you assume Indy has nothing to play for and mails it in against Denver (giving the Broncs the W), our probability goes from 56% to 38%.

 

Looking at the schedule for this upcoming week, as long as the Bills win, I don't expect anything to really hurt our chances. Even if the Jets win, it wouldn't kill us. If any of the other teams lose, it's a bonus.

 

One last thing to remember, we really need Pitt, NE and Indy to come through. I'm a little worried that they may slip up toward the end of the season. They have a combined five games against, NYJ, Balt, and Denver.

 

GO BILLS!

[BuckeyeBill]

Very nice summary.

 

I too was noticing how big those games (Cincinnati and Pittsburgh's comeback with the win by SD). I have too been trying to crunch the numbers.

 

But have you attempted to figure out the possibilty of what will our liklihood be of the Bills ending 9-7? It definitely will be less than 50%, but it's above 0%, right?

[JohninMinn.]

I don't see mailing anything in with home field at stake.

[maddog]

Very nice summary.

 

I too was noticing how big those games (Cincinnati and Pittsburgh's comeback with the win by SD).  I have too been trying to crunch the numbers.

 

But have you attempted to figure out the possibilty of what will our liklihood be of the Bills ending 9-7?  It definitely will be less than 50%, but it's above 0%, right?

148563[/snapback]

It gets too complicated if the Bills finish 9-7. First of all, it brings other teams into the mix, like Cincinnati. Second, we are so weak on tie-breakers, all the teams would have to fall apart for us to make it. I don't think it is an impossibility, but the chances of us getting in at 9-7 are pretty close to 0% I think.

[MrJaimie]

It gets too complicated if the Bills finish 9-7.  First of all, it brings other teams into the mix, like Cincinnati.  Second, we are so weak on tie-breakers, all the teams would have to fall apart for us to make it.  I don't think it is an impossibility, but the chances of us getting in at 9-7 are pretty close to 0% I think.

148573[/snapback]

 

Having only a minor in Numerical Analysis, do you really think the Bills have a 56% chance of winning out? I think your percentage is a bit high.

[maddog]

Having only a minor in Numerical Analysis, do you really think the Bills have a 56% chance of winning out? I think your percentage is a bit high.

148595[/snapback]

No, if they win out, they have a 56% chance of getting in.

 

Despite my optimism, I think the chances of the Bills sweeping the next four is probably less than 50%. But that's why they play the games.

 

I was really trying to figure out the rest of the games would shake out for the other contenders and how that would impact our playoff possibilities.

[OGTEleven]

No, if they win out, they have a 56% chance of getting in.

 

Despite my optimism, I think the chances of the Bills sweeping the next four is probably less than 50%.  But that's why they play the games.

 

I was really trying to figure out the rest of the games would shake out for the other contenders and how that would impact our playoff possibilities.

148617[/snapback]

Bills chances at winning out (estimated):

 

Cle 90%

*

Cin 45%

*

SF 80%

*

Pit 60%= 19.44%

 

19.44% * 56% = 10.89% chance of playoffs.

 

That's better than I would have thought at 0-4.

[eSJayDee]

I believe you failed to take into consideration the possibilites of Indy &/or SD losing their remaining 4 games. I realize each have low probability.

 

I haven't figured the odds yet (let's wait at least another game), but the way I look at it, there's 6 teams that can be 'eliminated' & we need 3 to do so (& of course, us winning our remaining 4).

[maddog]

I believe you failed to take into consideration the possibilites of Indy &/or SD losing their remaining 4 games.  I realize each have low probability.

 

I haven't figured the odds yet (let's wait at least another game), but the way I look at it, there's 6 teams that can be 'eliminated' & we need 3 to do so (& of course, us winning our remaining 4).

148842[/snapback]

True. Albeit small, there still is that possibility.

 

Looking at the schedule, I think we'll have a pretty good idea of what may happen or need to happen for us to get in after week 15 (game 14). There are some big games that week (NYJ vs. Sea, Buf @ Cin, Balt @ Indy, Jax @ GB, and Den @ KC).