afrodziak Posted December 6, 2004 Share Posted December 6, 2004 OK, there are 2 assumptions we are going to have to start with to look at possibilities for the remainder of the season: 1. Bills win out to finish the season on a 7-0 run with a 10-6 final record after starting 0-4 2. San Diego, Indy, New England and Pittsburgh win their divisions (basically for our concerns, I'm saying that San Diego and Indy don't finish 10-6, which could change all kinds of things) So here is the wild card race in a nutshell as it stands today, with current record, recent streak, remaining schedule and what each team must do for Buffalo to pass them if they run the table (only top 2 of these 5 teams will make the playoffs as wild cards): 9-3 Jets (Won 3) - @Pittsburgh; Seattle; New England; @Rams *must lose 3 games (and one of those has to be against New England) 7-5 Ravens (Lost 2) - NY Giants; @Indy; @Pittsburgh; Miami *must lose 2 games 7-5 Broncos (Lost 2) - Miami; @Kansas City; @Tennessee; Indy *must lose 1 (I believe I read somewhere that we'd have a tie breaker against them if we both finished 10-6 - someone correct me if i am wrong here) 6-6 Jaguars (Lost 3) - Chicago; @Green Bay; Houston; @Oakland *must lose 1 6-6 Buffalo (Won 3) - Cleveland; @Cinci; @San Fran; Pittsburgh *must win all 4 Cinci and Pittsburgh obviously will be the tests for us. I am more worried about the Bengals because if we play Pittsburgh at home on a 6 game winning streak with the playoffs at stake and blow it, it just wasnt meant to be! I didnt include the Bengals in the list above because we are assuming that Buffalo wins all 4, meaning the Bengals can't pass us. In summary you can see that all the teams ahead of us are on current losing streaks and have pretty difficult teams coming up. The Jets are the only ones not on a losing streak, but they probably have the most difficult schedule of them all down the stretch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubes Posted December 6, 2004 Share Posted December 6, 2004 7-5 Broncos (Lost 2) - Miami; @Kansas City; @Tennessee; Indy*must lose 1 (I believe I read somewhere that we'd have a tie breaker against them if we both finished 10-6 - someone correct me if i am wrong here) 147847[/snapback] The Broncos must lose two. If we both finish 10-6, Denver will have a better AFC record than us. All 4 of their remaining games are against AFC teams, and right now they are 4-4 against the AFC. A 10-6 finish would mean they would finish with a 7-5 record against the AFC. If the Bills win out and finish 10-6, they would have a 6-6 AFC record. We are 3-6 against the AFC right now, and have only 3 games left against AFC teams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExWNYer Posted December 6, 2004 Share Posted December 6, 2004 OK, there are 2 assumptions we are going to have to start with to look at possibilities for the remainder of the season: 1. Bills win out to finish the season on a 7-0 run with a 10-6 final record after starting 0-4 2. San Diego, Indy, New England and Pittsburgh win their divisions (basically for our concerns, I'm saying that San Diego and Indy don't finish 10-6, which could change all kinds of things) So here is the wild card race in a nutshell as it stands today, with current record, recent streak, remaining schedule and what each team must do for Buffalo to pass them if they run the table (only top 2 of these 5 teams will make the playoffs as wild cards): 9-3 Jets (Won 3) - @Pittsburgh; Seattle; New England; @Rams *must lose 3 games (and one of those has to be against New England) 7-5 Ravens (Lost 2) - NY Giants; @Indy; @Pittsburgh; Miami *must lose 2 games 7-5 Broncos (Lost 2) - Miami; @Kansas City; @Tennessee; Indy *must lose 1 (I believe I read somewhere that we'd have a tie breaker against them if we both finished 10-6 - someone correct me if i am wrong here) 6-6 Jaguars (Lost 3) - Chicago; @Green Bay; Houston; @Oakland *must lose 1 6-6 Buffalo (Won 3) - Cleveland; @Cinci; @San Fran; Pittsburgh *must win all 4 Cinci and Pittsburgh obviously will be the tests for us. I am more worried about the Bengals because if we play Pittsburgh at home on a 6 game winning streak with the playoffs at stake and blow it, it just wasnt meant to be! I didnt include the Bengals in the list above because we are assuming that Buffalo wins all 4, meaning the Bengals can't pass us. In summary you can see that all the teams ahead of us are on current losing streaks and have pretty difficult teams coming up. The Jets are the only ones not on a losing streak, but they probably have the most difficult schedule of them all down the stretch! 147847[/snapback] Nice post and well summarized. I have already conceded one of the Wildcards to the Jest. As you said, the Bills must win out which means that Cincy would be gone. The Ravens & Broncos both have tough schedules and could easily lose two of their remaining four (Ravens: @Indy & @ Pit?; Broncos: a different team on the road- @KC & @ Ten?). The Jags won't win out, regardless- too many close to the vest games (loss @ GB?). I totally agree that if the Bills run the table and lose @ home to PIT with the playoffs on the line, then they didn't deserve it anyway. No matter what happens, it's just great to be watching meaningful Bills games this late in the season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CosmicBills Posted December 6, 2004 Share Posted December 6, 2004 Let's take it one week at a time to save the confusion. Look at it this way: We ABSOLUTELY need the following to happen next week: 1) Win over Clevland 2) Jets lose to Pittsburgh Those are must haves. The rest of these games would be nice but don't hurt if they go the other way: Broncos lose to Miami Ravens lose to NYG Jags lose to Chicago So all we need next weekend is the Jets to lose to Pittsburgh and to beat Clevland. Then we will worry about everything else at this time next sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubes Posted December 6, 2004 Share Posted December 6, 2004 Let's take it one week at a time to save the confusion. Look at it this way: We ABSOLUTELY need the following to happen next week: 1) Win over Clevland 2) Jets lose to Pittsburgh Those are must haves. The rest of these games would be nice but don't hurt if they go the other way: Broncos lose to Miami Ravens lose to NYG Jags lose to Chicago So all we need next weekend is the Jets to lose to Pittsburgh and to beat Clevland. Then we will worry about everything else at this time next sunday. 147887[/snapback] We don't absolutely need the Jets to lose. It would be great if they collapsed, but the Jets and the Bills can both make the playoffs. We REALLY REALLY want the Broncs, Ravens, and Jags to lose next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CosmicBills Posted December 6, 2004 Share Posted December 6, 2004 We don't absolutely need the Jets to lose. It would be great if they collapsed, but the Jets and the Bills can both make the playoffs. We REALLY REALLY want the Broncs, Ravens, and Jags to lose next week. 147924[/snapback] It's very, very unlikely that both wildcard spots will go to AFC East teams. I know it's possible but the law of averages are against it. And if the Jets lose to Pittsburgh it will make the Seahawk game very interesting. Plus the more losses for the Jets the better, just on general principle:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubes Posted December 6, 2004 Share Posted December 6, 2004 Plus the more losses for the Jets the better, just on general principle:) 147935[/snapback] There is no possible retort to that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CosmicBills Posted December 6, 2004 Share Posted December 6, 2004 There is no possible retort to that! 147941[/snapback] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jarthur31 Posted December 6, 2004 Share Posted December 6, 2004 We don't absolutely need the Jets to lose. It would be great if they collapsed, but the Jets and the Bills can both make the playoffs. We REALLY REALLY want the Broncs, Ravens, and Jags to lose next week. 147924[/snapback] Yep you got that right! Those 3 teams can't tie us or we have no prayer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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