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In this year's draft, QB...


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In last year's draft, everyone in the league knew the Bills needed to get a TE. All of the discussion on this board and in the mock drafts had us picking one early - second round, if I recall correctly.

 

The reality was, while the Bills also knew they needed a TE, they didn't love any of the prospects enough to spend a day 1 pick on them, and they also had other priorities (mainly the interior of the o-line and getting a S prospect they were really high on. I won't mention the Maybin pick here). They actually draft 5 players before selecting Shawn Nelson in Round 4, a player who fell into their lap at that point.

 

This year, I think QB will be similar. There are some players they probably like but don't love. In my opinion, these probably include Tebow, McCoy, Skelton, Snead, LeFevour and Z. Robinson.

 

I think what they do is focus on their priorities for at least the first 3 rounds - OT, OLB, speedy playmaker (i.e. waterbug scatback) and / or NT.

 

Then, starting in round 4, they start thinking about who has fallen hard at QB. Maybe Tebow, maybe Lefevour. We'll see.

 

But this is how I expect it to go. I definitely do not expect, with this weak QB class, for Nix to reach in round 1 or round 2 for a QB. I'm not in love with either of these QBs. But if you get then in Round 4 / 5, that works. Just don't waste a second round pick on one of them.

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In last year's draft, everyone in the league knew the Bills needed to get a TE. All of the discussion on this board and in the mock drafts had us picking one early - second round, if I recall correctly.

 

The reality was, while the Bills also knew they needed a TE, they didn't love any of the prospects enough to spend a day 1 pick on them, and they also had other priorities (mainly the interior of the o-line and getting a S prospect they were really high on. I won't mention the Maybin pick here). They actually draft 5 players before selecting Shawn Nelson in Round 4, a player who fell into their lap at that point.

 

This year, I think QB will be similar. There are some players they probably like but don't love. In my opinion, these probably include Tebow, McCoy, Skelton, Snead, LeFevour and Z. Robinson.

 

I think what they do is focus on their priorities for at least the first 3 rounds - OT, OLB, speedy playmaker (i.e. waterbug scatback) and / or NT.

 

Then, starting in round 4, they start thinking about who has fallen hard at QB. Maybe Tebow, maybe Lefevour. We'll see.

 

But this is how I expect it to go. I definitely do not expect, with this weak QB class, for Nix to reach in round 1 or round 2 for a QB. I'm not in love with either of these QBs. But if you get then in Round 4 / 5, that works. Just don't waste a second round pick on one of them.

 

 

I don't like the idea of a QB in this class in rounds 1-3. I don't really think it is worth wasting a 4th or 5th on "whoever

is left over at QB" either. If they aren't going big with a round 1 QB (and I hope that they don't), then spend the picks

on better players at other positions. Almost none of these 3rd, 4th, 5th round QBs ever amount to anything and some

players picked at other positions in those rounds do pan out to be contributors - at least on special teams. Please spare

me the "what about 6th round Tom Brady and 3rd round Joe Montana" comments. Those guys are very very rare.

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I don't like the idea of a QB in this class in rounds 1-3. I don't really think it is worth wasting a 4th or 5th on "whoever

is left over at QB" either. If they aren't going big with a round 1 QB (and I hope that they don't), then spend the picks

on better players at other positions. Almost none of these 3rd, 4th, 5th round QBs ever amount to anything and some

players picked at other positions in those rounds do pan out to be contributors - at least on special teams. Please spare

me the "what about 6th round Tom Brady and 3rd round Joe Montana" comments. Those guys are very very rare.

 

Yeah, generally I agree. I'm not saying I would be in favor of taking a QB in those rounds - just what I think might happen. Nix will only take Tebow or Lefevour if he thinks there is some promise there. At this point, just saying what I expect.

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It's all about value. This teams has needs, but putting a need in front of where a player SHOULD actually be selected, usually doesn't end up well (see Aaron Maybin). The QB's in this draft other than Bradford and Claussen (Tebow is the true wild card---who knows where his draft ceiling and floor really are) are second round picks and beyond. Some will be drafted too high and others will slip lower than many pundits believe. Following the value chart that this team sets forth will lead to a reasonable QB selection should they choose.

 

If it comes to the third round and the Bills have their 4th ranked QB available vs. the 10th ranked OT and 8th ranked DT. Nine times out of ten you take the best ranked.

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Going in to this year's draft, or any draft for that matter, you have to take in consideration where the value is for each position. This year seems to be pretty heavy at T and DT/NT. Since we have holes at both positions I think it makes logical sense to draft and fill these positions in the first couple of rounds.

 

But who really knows, if a player falls to you at some point that's too good to pass up, do you pass him up because you have other positional needs? That's why the guys in the front office make the big bucks. I thinks it's safe to say that the Bills at some point in the draft will take: a Tackle (s), a Nose Tackle, Wide Receiver, Running Back, Linebacker, Guard(s), and maybe a Quarterback (probably). Okay, okay, it would have been easier for me to list the positions they are not going to draft.

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