Bills should trade away #9

[Thurman#1]

I think the Bills should seriously consider moving the #9 pick for a proven commodity. Before we talk about how valuable a top 10/first round pick is, lets look at 10 Bills drafts, skipping over 08 and 09 because its too early to tell (I am including the Parrish pick in 05 bc it was essential our top pick that year, having traded away our 05 first a full year in advance, which allowed us to focus on that pick being our first in that draft)

 

2000 Erik Flowers

2001 Nate Clements

2002 Mike Williams

2003 Willis McGahee

2004 Lee Evans

2004 J.P. Losman

2005 No 1st Round Pick, Roscoe Parrish (2nd Round)

2006 Donte Whitner

2006 John McCargo

2007 Marshawn Lynch

 

Now to quatify that with a % success rate, I am going to use a simple grading system. A 1 will equal a good pick with good value and production from that player relative to their draft position. a 1/2 with equal a decent player with decent production relative to their draft position. A 0 [zero] will basically be a bust, or someone who has disappointed relative to draft position. This scale will result in any average over 50% as above average. I will be very gracious with my ranking too.

 

2000 Erik Flowers: Zero - complete bust. Started 5 games before being benched, only last 2 years before being cut.

2001 Nate Clements 1 - one of the better corners to hit FA when the Bills didnt resign him. Played 6 years for the Bills.

2002 Mike Williams: Zero -Complete Bust. Never played LT and was out of the league a few years later.

2003 Willis McGahee: 1/2 - missed entire rookie year. Played well when he was in. Would be a zero if his trade did not bring in 2 third round picks

2004 Lee Evans: 1/2 - One of the better players on the team but a WR taken 13th overall should be more productive regardless of who is throwing him the ball. Labeled a 1 trick pony.

2004 J.P. Losman: Zero- banished to the UFL after his rookie contract expired.

2005 No 1st Round Pick, Roscoe Parrish (2nd Round): Zero - never more thana Punt returner. Bills needed more value with this pick.

2006 Donte Whitner: Zero: 8th overall pick gets beaten out by UDFA and former WR for starting job. Being a top 10 pick=Zero

2006 John McCargo: Zero - no explanation needed.

2007 Marshawn Lynch 1/2 - Made the PB and is a good back, but was beaten out by UDFA and D3 Jackson. If he is traded with little return this will drop to a zero.

 

To add the figures:

0+1+0+1/2+1/2+0+0+0+0+1/2=2.5

 

2.5/10=.25 = 25% success rate.

 

25% As we can see, a top 10/first pick is not valuable to a Bills organization that simply can not draft well early on. Now I realize Nix is in the house now, but he was there last year too, and Maybin was the Bills selection. Maybin has not shown anything in his rookie year that can make anyone think the Bills have righted the ship.

 

Now considering it is feasible that the Bills could trade away that pick for say, Wilfork or McNiel, I would be all for doing it. Lets be honest here, the only player I gave a 1 to in my rankings - which I feel are very accurate - is Clements, who spent only 6 years with the team. Only 2 or 3 of those years was he very dominant. We could be getting guys who are entering the prime of their careers in Wilfork/McNiel, who could easily pend 6 years in Buffalo dominating, and not unknown rookies who need to be taught the game and have little chance of succeeding, who will then likely leave via FA.

 

We are going to draft a T/NT most likely anyways with taht #9 overall. I say dont risk drafting another colossal bust. Save the top 10 pick money, dont risk taking a rookie, and divert the money into a big contract for Wilfork/McNiel by trading the pick away.

 

 

 

First, the Bills draft last year looks excellent, the best in years.

 

Second, if you expect them to do something because they have been proven to be bad drafters ... I don't know what to say to you. If they believed that, they'd fire everyone and start over. They don't believe that, and they have pretty good reason to have confidence after last year's excellent results.

 

And last, for God's sake, give up on Wilfork and McNeill, their organizations are simply NOT going to let them get away. The Bills were massively stupid giving away Peters. Don't expect the Pats* or the Bolts to follow suit by giving away one of the top players on their team at a highly important position without a good plan for replacing them. The Bolts have NOBODY to replace McNeill, and the Pats* have a couple of extremely young unproven guys who aren't particularly good. Getting McNeill or Wilfork is about as likely as getting Johnny Unitas as our next QB.

 

Oh, and feel what you want, your rankings are slanted extremely negatively.

[Thurman#1]

Nix did such a good job last year with his talent evalution of Maybin.

 

 

Yeah, maybe he did. Impossible to know yet. But after that, he got a rookie Pro Bowler in the second and three starters and another who looks like he will be one at TE. It looks like an excellent draft indeed.

 

And by the way, you obviously have seen his evaluation of Maybin. What did he say, exactly? What were his arguments for and against. Putting the responsibility for any one pick on an assistant GM is just nonsensical.

 

We don't know who made the pick. We don't know what Nix thought of it. We don't know whether or not it was a good pick. But other than that, you're right on.

[Thurman#1]

Wrong!

 

When did Lynch get "beaten out" by Jackson, for his job?

 

 

If I recall correctly, Lynch was suspended for the first 3 or 4 games of the year...making Jackson the starter by default.

 

Fred Jackson played well enough to the point where, when Lynch came back, the staff let Jackson keep his job because he had earned the chance to get more playing time, and he was proving to be effective.

 

When Fewell took over, he left Jackson in because Freddie gave Fewell the best chance at winning and keeping the H.C. job.

 

 

 

Um, yeah. That's called getting beaten out.

[Thurman#1]

You do realize that you just explained more thoroughly how Lynch was beaten out, rather than make an argument against it, right?

 

 

 

Awwww, you beat me to it. Hadn't seen this post when I posted my last one.

[Thurman#1]

I hear ya now. I believe in your argument in principal. Although you wouldn't get "youth" with the #9 pick you would get most likely get a better "player" with the #9 pick than you could realistically get in the draft. Trading away a 1st is always tough though. You better be careful with your Wilfork talk and comparison to Jason Peters though.

 

***QUEUE THE ...."Wilfolk is a lazy, fat, doughnut eating, locker room cancer, loyalty lacking, greedy bastard talk" that everyone spewed about Peters because their poor little feelings were hurt because the guy wanted to be paid what he was worth. The Eagles did pay him what he was worth and gave up a 1st and a 3rd for the right to do it!!!!!!!!

 

 

 

A first and a fourth and a sixth this year, I believe, but I hear ya.

[Thurman#1]

Hey guys I'm new to twobillsdrive and thought this first thread seemed pretty interesting. I agree that we do need more picks but I'm throwing a wild idea out there. This is probably more ideal in the minds of Madden players, but what if we traded UP with Detroit. They are shopping for a team to take that pick because they frankily can't afford it. Kevin Smith's injury problems are a cause for concern, so what if we traded Lynch, 1st rd pick, 3rd rd, and a 6th rd pick for their 2nd overall pick and Ernie Simms. We take either Suh or McCoy with that pick, get an amazing LB, and also have a 2nd rd pick to select a QB or OL. If we believe we are set at NT, which we are not, we could take a LT but I think taking either one of those two to anchor our defense along with Simms would be amazing.

 

Again, probably more suitable for a Madden '10 trade than reality, but just a thought.

 

 

 

It's just me, but I can't see either side making that trade, them because they would find it tilted in favor of the Bills, and us because Mr. Wilson wouldn't be likely to want to take on a salary like that.

 

The only exception, from the Bills side, would be if they decide that they absolutely have to have either Clausen or Bradford. Ralph would understand paying that much money to a QB, I would guess.

[spartacus]

We don't know who made the pick. We don't know what Nix thought of it.

 

That's the beauty of the INner Circle Jerk - nobody at OBD is responsible for the decisions being made.

 

It wasn't Nix (the top national scout) - he trashed it after the season

 

It wasn't Modrack (the head of college scouting)- he trashed maybin too, AFTER the season

 

 

Maybin must have picked himself.

 

same with McCargo, Whitner, Hardy, McElvin, etc

[Thurman#1]

People...Fred Jackson was the starter from day 1 because Marshawn Lynch could not play!

 

Do you REALLY think if Lynch was not suspended that Jackson would have started opening day? Not a chance.

 

 

Being "beat out" would mean that there was a fair competition at RB in training camp, and Jackson played better than Lynch and fairly took the job. That was not the case.

 

Again...Jackson won the starting job by default, due to Lynch's suspension.

 

 

 

Dude, being "beaten out" doesn't imply a fair competition. It just implies that one guy is picked over another, with at least some period of trying out.

 

You're right that for the first three games we didn't know anything. But when Jackson was started in game #4, it was because he had beaten out Marshawn.

[Thurman#1]

If Buddy Nix is worth anything at all, this is why he was hired.

 

The Bills need to take a OT with that #9

 

 

 

Or a QB. Or someone else Nix values at the spot. Although LT would be nice, certainly.

[Thurman#1]

That's the beauty of the INner Circle Jerk - nobody at OBD is responsible for the decisions being made.

 

It wasn't Nix (the top national scout) - he trashed it after the season

 

It wasn't Modrack (the head of college scouting)- he trashed maybin too, AFTER the season

 

 

Maybin must have picked himself.

 

same with McCargo, Whitner, Hardy, McElvin, etc

 

 

 

Neither guy has ever been the GM, up till Nix got appointed this year. So of course there has always been a chance they would get overruled.

 

Quick question: has anybody ever corrected Modrak or Nix when they said (Modrak -that he wanted Cushing) or implied (Nix - that he wouldn't pick one year wonders) that they would have gone another way? No? Exactly.

[Hey Hey]

I think the Bills should seriously consider moving the #9 pick for a proven commodity. Before we talk about how valuable a top 10/first round pick is, lets look at 10 Bills drafts, skipping over 08 and 09 because its too early to tell (I am including the Parrish pick in 05 bc it was essential our top pick that year, having traded away our 05 first a full year in advance, which allowed us to focus on that pick being our first in that draft)

 

2000 Erik Flowers

2001 Nate Clements

2002 Mike Williams

2003 Willis McGahee

2004 Lee Evans

2004 J.P. Losman

2005 No 1st Round Pick, Roscoe Parrish (2nd Round)

2006 Donte Whitner

2006 John McCargo

2007 Marshawn Lynch

 

Now to quatify that with a % success rate, I am going to use a simple grading system. A 1 will equal a good pick with good value and production from that player relative to their draft position. a 1/2 with equal a decent player with decent production relative to their draft position. A 0 [zero] will basically be a bust, or someone who has disappointed relative to draft position. This scale will result in any average over 50% as above average. I will be very gracious with my ranking too.

 

2000 Erik Flowers: Zero - complete bust. Started 5 games before being benched, only last 2 years before being cut.

2001 Nate Clements 1 - one of the better corners to hit FA when the Bills didnt resign him. Played 6 years for the Bills.

2002 Mike Williams: Zero -Complete Bust. Never played LT and was out of the league a few years later.

2003 Willis McGahee: 1/2 - missed entire rookie year. Played well when he was in. Would be a zero if his trade did not bring in 2 third round picks

2004 Lee Evans: 1/2 - One of the better players on the team but a WR taken 13th overall should be more productive regardless of who is throwing him the ball. Labeled a 1 trick pony.

2004 J.P. Losman: Zero- banished to the UFL after his rookie contract expired.

2005 No 1st Round Pick, Roscoe Parrish (2nd Round): Zero - never more thana Punt returner. Bills needed more value with this pick.

2006 Donte Whitner: Zero: 8th overall pick gets beaten out by UDFA and former WR for starting job. Being a top 10 pick=Zero

2006 John McCargo: Zero - no explanation needed.

2007 Marshawn Lynch 1/2 - Made the PB and is a good back, but was beaten out by UDFA and D3 Jackson. If he is traded with little return this will drop to a zero.

 

To add the figures:

0+1+0+1/2+1/2+0+0+0+0+1/2=2.5

 

2.5/10=.25 = 25% success rate.

 

25% As we can see, a top 10/first pick is not valuable to a Bills organization that simply can not draft well early on. Now I realize Nix is in the house now, but he was there last year too, and Maybin was the Bills selection. Maybin has not shown anything in his rookie year that can make anyone think the Bills have righted the ship.

 

Now considering it is feasible that the Bills could trade away that pick for say, Wilfork or McNiel, I would be all for doing it. Lets be honest here, the only player I gave a 1 to in my rankings - which I feel are very accurate - is Clements, who spent only 6 years with the team. Only 2 or 3 of those years was he very dominant. We could be getting guys who are entering the prime of their careers in Wilfork/McNiel, who could easily pend 6 years in Buffalo dominating, and not unknown rookies who need to be taught the game and have little chance of succeeding, who will then likely leave via FA.

 

We are going to draft a T/NT most likely anyways with taht #9 overall. I say dont risk drafting another colossal bust. Save the top 10 pick money, dont risk taking a rookie, and divert the money into a big contract for Wilfork/McNiel by trading the pick away.

That shi$ is depressing.

[spartacus]

Neither guy has ever been the GM, up till Nix got appointed this year. So of course there has always been a chance they would get overruled.

 

Quick question: has anybody ever corrected Modrak or Nix when they said (Modrak -that he wanted Cushing) or implied (Nix - that he wouldn't pick one year wonders) that they would have gone another way? No? Exactly.

 

has anybody corrected them?

 

who exactly would call them out on the record?

 

Ralph

 

someone from the Inner Circle Jerk - who are all committed to deflecting responsibility?

 

that about covers everyone in the draft room

 

help me out

[Hazed and Amuzed]

I tend to agree about trading down but I'd do it for the reason of getting more draft picks. This draft is pretty damn deep and I'm thinking that drafting is going to be a strong point with having a guy like Nix at the helm. With last years draft looking strong for the most part we may be able to have 2 straight good drafts. That is what this team needs more then anything. Sprinkle in a couple of good FA's to start and a couple of more for depth and repeat. If this can be accomplished this year and next then we will have a competitive team by 2012 which is when the world ends, so it looks like everything is lining up as planned-When the Bills finally win the Super Bowl the world will end.

[JPS]

What if Berry or Haden are there? Or a team looking ensure they get Spiller?

Virtually everything I've read say Berry and Haden will be gone. Spiller...at 9?? Hell, if Whitner went at 8, I guess anything is possible.

[Wilson from Gamehendge]

Dude, being "beaten out" doesn't imply a fair competition. It just implies that one guy is picked over another, with at least some period of trying out.

 

You're right that for the first three games we didn't know anything. But when Jackson was started in game #4, it was because he had beaten out Marshawn.

Beaten him out in what way? Lynch did NOT play or practice.

 

Jackson got hot while being GIVEN the opportunity to start while Lynch sat out. The coaching staff stuck with him because he was their best chance to win, because Lynch had not been playing OR practicing and Jackson was the only other option. So, by game 4, yes, Jackson had been playing good enough to warrant the starting job. However, I am talking about the beginning of the season. Fred Jackson did not EARN the starting job through training camp, but when he got the chance, he earned it and proved his worth...by week 4, due to Lynch not being around.

 

 

I am NOT knocking Jackson, I love the guy, think he is a great player. I have ALWAYS rooted for him, coming from D-3 Coe college. However, I think Lynch is the better running back. He lost his job due to suspension, just like somebody losing their job to an injury. In these cases, the backup (Jackson), did not EARN the starting job.