Round-by-Round QB Draft Analysis

[Cash]

Inspired by a similar breakdown over on the Buffalo Range boards, I decided to look at all the QBs drafted in the last 20 years by round. I wanted to see what the success rates looked like. We all know that even first-round QBs have a high chance of busting, and that late-round guys sometimes pan out, but what are the actual percentages? So I went to drafthistory.com and got a list of all QBs drafted since 1990, and broke them down in 4 categories:

 

Likely HOF: Likely to make the Hall of Fame. Manning, Brady, Favre, etc.

 

Pro Bowl: The easiest one to rate, because it's 100% objective. If he's made at least 1 Pro Bowl, yes, if not, no.

 

Starter: By this I mean not just that he's started games, but that he was his team's unquestioned starter for at least a year, and not just by default. So I didn't count guys like Fitzpatrick or Gradkowski, nor did I count guys like Sanchez or JaMarcus Russell, who've only started due to draft status. If a high pick started for a couple of years, played terribly, and then was cut or benched, that didn't count. This one is pretty subjective, but I tried to be consistent throughout. My main guideline was that a guy's team had to go into at least one offseason both knowing that the guy was their starter and not looking to acquire a QB (except as a backup).

 

Bust: Didn't pan out as a starter. The term "bust" may seem a bit harsh for a lot of these guys, especially the late-round guys, but here's my thought process: We're looking for a starting QB - a franchise guy. No matter what round we draft a QB in, if he doesn't develop into a starter, it doesn't do us much good. Ryan Fitzpatrick has done well for himself as a 7th-round pick, but another Fitzpatrick won't help.

 

I actually double-counted some guys under both "Starter" and "Bust" because they were their team's unquestioned starter for a bit, but then flamed out. Trent Edwards is a good example here. Alex Smith and Vince Young were both benched for a whole season, but now appear to be their teams' respective starters, so they got double-counted as well.

 

Again, a lot of this was pretty subjective, and I may have misjudged a few, but most of them are pretty clear-cut. Anyone who i felt wasn't determined yet, I left blank - like this year's first-round QBs. I think I left Matt Schaub's Pro Bowl column blank, because while he hasn't made one yet, he's likely to make one at some point.

 

I also took a quick look at the current starters for each team. One thing that I thought was pretty interesting is that almost all of the non-first-round QBs who panned out did so for a team that didn't draft them. Right now, the list is only Brady, Garrard, Tony Romo (not drafted, but has only played for Dallas), and Bulger, assuming Bulger doesn't get cut this offseason. Maybe you can count Chad Henne as well, although that's still pretty up in the air.

 

Anyway, feel free to check out the analysis (linked below). The Cliff's Notes version is that 1st-round QBs bust a little over 60% of the time, 2nd-round QBs bust about 75% of the time, and for every other round, they bust about 90% of the time.

 

https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0As...NqV1E&hl=en

[Glass To The Arson]

Inspired by a similar breakdown over on the Buffalo Range boards, I decided to look at all the QBs drafted in the last 20 years by round. I wanted to see what the success rates looked like. We all know that even first-round QBs have a high chance of busting, and that late-round guys sometimes pan out, but what are the actual percentages? So I went to drafthistory.com and got a list of all QBs drafted since 1990, and broke them down in 4 categories:

 

Likely HOF: Likely to make the Hall of Fame. Manning, Brady, Favre, etc.

 

Pro Bowl: The easiest one to rate, because it's 100% objective. If he's made at least 1 Pro Bowl, yes, if not, no.

 

Starter: By this I mean not just that he's started games, but that he was his team's unquestioned starter for at least a year, and not just by default. So I didn't count guys like Fitzpatrick or Gradkowski, nor did I count guys like Sanchez or JaMarcus Russell, who've only started due to draft status. If a high pick started for a couple of years, played terribly, and then was cut or benched, that didn't count. This one is pretty subjective, but I tried to be consistent throughout. My main guideline was that a guy's team had to go into at least one offseason both knowing that the guy was their starter and not looking to acquire a QB (except as a backup).

 

Bust: Didn't pan out as a starter. The term "bust" may seem a bit harsh for a lot of these guys, especially the late-round guys, but here's my thought process: We're looking for a starting QB - a franchise guy. No matter what round we draft a QB in, if he doesn't develop into a starter, it doesn't do us much good. Ryan Fitzpatrick has done well for himself as a 7th-round pick, but another Fitzpatrick won't help.

 

I actually double-counted some guys under both "Starter" and "Bust" because they were their team's unquestioned starter for a bit, but then flamed out. Trent Edwards is a good example here. Alex Smith and Vince Young were both benched for a whole season, but now appear to be their teams' respective starters, so they got double-counted as well.

 

Again, a lot of this was pretty subjective, and I may have misjudged a few, but most of them are pretty clear-cut. Anyone who i felt wasn't determined yet, I left blank - like this year's first-round QBs. I think I left Matt Schaub's Pro Bowl column blank, because while he hasn't made one yet, he's likely to make one at some point.

 

I also took a quick look at the current starters for each team. One thing that I thought was pretty interesting is that almost all of the non-first-round QBs who panned out did so for a team that didn't draft them. Right now, the list is only Brady, Garrard, Tony Romo (not drafted, but has only played for Dallas), and Bulger, assuming Bulger doesn't get cut this offseason. Maybe you can count Chad Henne as well, although that's still pretty up in the air.

 

Anyway, feel free to check out the analysis (linked below). The Cliff's Notes version is that 1st-round QBs bust a little over 60% of the time, 2nd-round QBs bust about 75% of the time, and for every other round, they bust about 90% of the time.

 

https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0As...NqV1E&hl=en

 

Why does Peyton Manning have a 1 next to bust?

[Cash]

Why does Peyton Manning have a 1 next to bust?

 

Because he sucks, duh.

 

Nice catch on the typo. I just corrected it.

[billsFORlife50]

I dont think you can call brady quinn a bust yet he has not really been given the starting job ever, and vince young has a really good winning percentage when he plays so i do not think you can put him in that bust category either

[Cash]

I dont think you can call brady quinn a bust yet he has not really been given the starting job ever, and vince young has a really good winning percentage when he plays so i do not think you can put him in that bust category either

 

Brady Quinn is debatable, but I'm pretty confident that he gets dumped this offseason. He's certainly sucked so far. As for Young, he got benched last year, went through the whole depression thing, and despite horrible play from Kerry Collins during an 0-6 start, it took a direct meddle from the owner to get him playing again. If Bud Adams doesn't force Jeff Fisher to put Young in the lineup, Young almost certainly gets cut this year.

[Brand J]

Inspired by a similar breakdown over on the Buffalo Range boards, I decided to look at all the QBs drafted in the last 20 years by round. I wanted to see what the success rates looked like. We all know that even first-round QBs have a high chance of busting, and that late-round guys sometimes pan out, but what are the actual percentages? So I went to drafthistory.com and got a list of all QBs drafted since 1990, and broke them down in 4 categories:

 

Likely HOF: Likely to make the Hall of Fame. Manning, Brady, Favre, etc.

 

Pro Bowl: The easiest one to rate, because it's 100% objective. If he's made at least 1 Pro Bowl, yes, if not, no.

 

Starter: By this I mean not just that he's started games, but that he was his team's unquestioned starter for at least a year, and not just by default. So I didn't count guys like Fitzpatrick or Gradkowski, nor did I count guys like Sanchez or JaMarcus Russell, who've only started due to draft status. If a high pick started for a couple of years, played terribly, and then was cut or benched, that didn't count. This one is pretty subjective, but I tried to be consistent throughout. My main guideline was that a guy's team had to go into at least one offseason both knowing that the guy was their starter and not looking to acquire a QB (except as a backup).

 

Bust: Didn't pan out as a starter. The term "bust" may seem a bit harsh for a lot of these guys, especially the late-round guys, but here's my thought process: We're looking for a starting QB - a franchise guy. No matter what round we draft a QB in, if he doesn't develop into a starter, it doesn't do us much good. Ryan Fitzpatrick has done well for himself as a 7th-round pick, but another Fitzpatrick won't help.

 

I actually double-counted some guys under both "Starter" and "Bust" because they were their team's unquestioned starter for a bit, but then flamed out. Trent Edwards is a good example here. Alex Smith and Vince Young were both benched for a whole season, but now appear to be their teams' respective starters, so they got double-counted as well.

 

Again, a lot of this was pretty subjective, and I may have misjudged a few, but most of them are pretty clear-cut. Anyone who i felt wasn't determined yet, I left blank - like this year's first-round QBs. I think I left Matt Schaub's Pro Bowl column blank, because while he hasn't made one yet, he's likely to make one at some point.

 

I also took a quick look at the current starters for each team. One thing that I thought was pretty interesting is that almost all of the non-first-round QBs who panned out did so for a team that didn't draft them. Right now, the list is only Brady, Garrard, Tony Romo (not drafted, but has only played for Dallas), and Bulger, assuming Bulger doesn't get cut this offseason. Maybe you can count Chad Henne as well, although that's still pretty up in the air.

 

Anyway, feel free to check out the analysis (linked below). The Cliff's Notes version is that 1st-round QBs bust a little over 60% of the time, 2nd-round QBs bust about 75% of the time, and for every other round, they bust about 90% of the time.

 

https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0As...NqV1E&hl=en

 

You have a lot of time on your hands my man..

[Buftex]

Brady Quinn is debatable, but I'm pretty confident that he gets dumped this offseason. He's certainly sucked so far. As for Young, he got benched last year, went through the whole depression thing, and despite horrible play from Kerry Collins during an 0-6 start, it took a direct meddle from the owner to get him playing again. If Bud Adams doesn't force Jeff Fisher to put Young in the lineup, Young almost certainly gets cut this year.

 

And if Bill Walsh had stuck with Steve DeBerg all those years ago, we might have never heard of Joe Montana...so does that make Montana a bust? If Drew Bledsoe doesn't get a blood vessell sheared, Tom Brady never plays...so he is a bust too?