Koufax
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Posts posted by Koufax
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I'm not on board in ever rooting for a loss or trying to get a loss. While I can handle some of the inevitable losses we will suffer in our remaining 7 games, and see the silver lining of improved draft position, this organization after its shocking playoff appearance last year will be better served by a 5-11 season than a 2-14 season, as crazy as that sounds.
As for Josh Allen, I would prefer to see him sit through the bye week, and want the decision to play him based on his development, and not 2018 season goals. I don't think there is any clear NFL roadmap as to watching the first year vs playing the first year, so McD can decide based on some of the little personal things along with health, and I'm fine either way.
But we aren't going to be drafting a franchise QB this year, where the difference between #1 and #2 and #5 really matters, and position player drafts in the top ten are a crap shoot, so I am not rooting for a loss any game all season, and that strategy I think we should start all referring to as the Losers Fallacy.
Top non-QBs in last five drafts that we have a little time to evaluate
2011: Von Miller 2, Dareus 3, AJGreen 4, Peterson 5, Julio Jones 6 (JJ Watt 11)...doesn't seem like losing an extra game made a difference, and I would love to pick Watt
2012: Richardson 3, Kalil 4, Blackmon 5, Claiborne 6, Barron 7, Kuechly 8, Gillmore 9...I'm happy picking 8 or 9 in that draft too.
2013: Fisher 1, Joekel 2, Jordon 3, Johnson 4, Ansah 5, Mingo 6...top tackles are nice...
2014: Clowney 1, Robinson 2, Watkins 4, Mack 5, Matthews 6, Evans 7, Gilbert 8, Barr 9, Ebron 10, Lewan 11, Beckham 12....if you were going to trade up to #4, I wanted to pick Mack on draft day, and if you are picking 5, 7, 12 in this draft you are fine too.
2015: FOwler 3, Cooper 4, Scherff 5...Gurley 10...I don't mind picking smart at 10 in this draft...
A higher pick is always a great thing to have, and I'm rooting for the Giants, Raiders, Niners, Cardinals, Browns, Jets to help us out with some meaningless wins in the next few weeks, but not picking a QB, improving draft stock by tanking and being a joke of a team doesn't really add up to a winning future.
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1 hour ago, RPbillsfan said:
Listening to AM 1090 in San Diego on the way to work and commentator stated how he's looking forward to seeing if the Patriots could put up 70 points on the Bills tonight.
I'm so pissed ? that we get abused by even remote locations by radio hosts who don't even have a local team.
C'mon Bills, put on a great performance tonight and shock the world.
I know both of the guys on the show personally, and neither knows anything about the Bills in any way shape or form, and with the Chargers leaving San Diego they have been spending a lot less attention on following football. So they will have no idea that our defense is actually pretty good, and while we can't expect much out of our offense, we are not a horrible laughing stock team. We are QB weak and not hitting on all cylinders, but our defense is good, our offense will be forced to run the ball and eat the clock some, and the game should be closer than people think.
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1 hour ago, Augie said:
Yeah, I wonder how much of the decision was related to the possibility that he could slip on a wet mat in TC, bump his noggin and POOF, his career is over? That concussion history really concerned me, probably more than most people... Maybe 5 years ago I wouldn’t be so sensitive to it, but you just hear so much about concussions these days...
(This is all part of trying to cope.)
I agree.
I like the current football player Josh Rosen much better than the current football player Josh Allen. But we aren't getting the current football player, we are trying to get the next ten years.
Rosen is such a smart kid and from a smart well off family, that I could see him walking away after his first NFL concussion, and as a stationary pocket passer in the NFL, I unfortunately know that could come at any time.
Also, again coping here, Rosen would seem to be who he is, and I'm not quite sure that is more Matt Ryan than Ryan Mallett, and only time will tell. But Allen has some exciting room to become something really special, so we have to dream the upside and see how soon we can make McCarron a backup, but patiently wait for the right time.
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My worries on Josh Allen are limited to if he will be able to make quick good decisions at NFL speed and accurately deliver the ball. Those two Drew Brees/Tom Brady/Joe Montana skills come before everything else. I have him behind Mayfield, Rosen, and Darnold on my big four list because of my doubts/concerns about those two things. I have little substantial reason to think he will fall short on these things, but the other three have all shown more promising signs on these two aspects.
I don't have any real personality concerns about any of the four, I don't think there is a Leaf or Manziel red flag in this group. The long term success of these four will be determined by the two Joe Montana skills. Completion Percentage is a big focus college stat to try to sum up these two skills, but it isn't that precise, and there is a difference in situations that leads to some guarded optimism for Allen. But until he is our pick and I start rooting for him, I'm hoping he isn't our pick, because the unknowns are too great.
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Nelson over Mayfield and Rosen either implies that those two will likely fail to be good NFL QBs (I disagree) or undervalues the positional importance and weights.
The difference between a decent OG and hall of fame OG on a football team's success is less than the difference between a good and a very good QB.
Every time I see a guard or running back too high because of their "grade" I think that the NFL still hasn't made the adjustment on positional weights, and how easy it is to find a decent replacement guard on day two or free agency vs how easy it is to fine a decent replacement qb on day two or free agency. Fortunately I hope that is a market inefficiency that our own team can exploit and allow us to be smarter than other teams.
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There is no chance that there are six good QBs from this draft five years from now. That doesn't mean that the top four are the four best necessarily or that Jackson and Rudolph are doomed. But when the dust settles there will be a bust and a so-so/backup in this group of six.
The secret is in evaluating them properly, and developing and utilizing the guy you get.
Allen scares me a lot for his accuracy and decision making (jury out), which can never be secondary to the "big hands, all the throws" crap. But he still has a path to stardom.
Mayfield (my choice) could be more Manziel than Brees and not overcome his small size and medium arm strength.
Darnold could get stuck at "pretty good" by continuing to turn the ball over, but has a very high floor.
Rosen could be more Ryan Mallet than Matt Ryan, and with his lack of mobility he will have to have timing, quick release, and decision making all go in his favor.
Jackson I think has a very good chance to be better than projected and end up one of the four best, and I think people get confused on his performance in designed runs vs scrambling. He was so good running that he wasn't always a pocket passer, but his pocket passing has a chance to develop, and there are some things I like about rolling dice on his incredible athletic ability more than Allen, but there is definite risk.
Rudolph is an interesting wild card. I see more solid backup than playoff game winner in him. I just see the NFL game moving a little too fast for his talents.
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On 4/16/2018 at 6:47 AM, greeneblitz said:
I'd be happy with any of the QBs except for Rosen (I think he's a terrible fit for us in Buffalo and in the locker room) and Jackson (I want nothing to do with another QB that can't stand in the pocket and throw from day one)
I don't like that so much of his value has been running, but it is important to note that a lot of that was on designed runs, and on designed passes his rate of deciding to scramble is actually fairly low.
I'm not so sure what to make of him, but I did want to point out this, and not have his running ability lead people to assume he is a scramble first guy who won't stay in the pocket. But the number of times Louisville decided to design a run for him makes it harder and more limited to evaluate how he is as a pocket passer, and how he would perform as a Buffalo Bill.
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1 hour ago, NewEra said:
His decision making and lack of accuracy. Some don’t like that he played vs crap competition as well
Yep. Those are the two BIGGEST qualities in a successful NFL quarterback, and I have no good reason to think Allen will become awesome at either. He is very scary, because while his ceiling is very high if he improves those two things, his floor is way too low if he doesn't (compared to Rosen and Mayfield who are very likely to be pretty good at worst, and Darnold who isn't a sure thing and has work to do, but is further along).
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On 4/3/2018 at 9:08 AM, Logic said:
I'll see your "Moving up to #2 = no playoffs for the next three years" and raise it a "No franchise QB = no Super Bowl Championships for the next decade".
Under normal circumstances, I might be inclined to agree with you, but the Bills' 2018 draft is not "normal circumstances". They've spent two full offseasons offloading talent after talent JUST to accumulate picks for this very purpose. As it stands now, they could reasonably trade up, get a quarterback, STILL have a decent amount of picks to use this year, and then go into 2019 with nearly $100 million in cap space to build around the young QB.
Can't say "maybe next year" forever. Go get a QB and be done with it.I like this. Playing the Jags on the road or even getting Norwood a shot from 47 isn't the goal. Winning a Super Bowl is what all macro decisions should be built on, especially regarding the QB position. Free agent line backers and guards and third round picks can all he based on depth chart and winning right now, but everything big should be about identifying which of these guys gives us the best shot at winning a Super Bowl, and doing what it takes to get him, even if we don't have a pick left to take a Maybin or Troupe or Hardy of Whitner...those kind of blue chips who all but guarantee a Lombardi...
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There are great QBs not taken in the top 10 picks, and there are QBs who perform better than others selected in front of them. But I'm not aware of any time recently where the 5th best QB to come out of a draft was any good. So which are the top 3 or 4 and when the top 3 or 4 will be picked, and if anybody will make a mistake and pick a bad QB ahead of a good one is all up to debate.
But I don't see any way that 5 good QBs come out of this draft, and I have some pretty big doubts that 4 will.Aaron Rodgers was the 2nd QB picked, and with all due respect to Jason Campbell and Charlie Frye, there were two useful QBs in that draft.
There were two good QBs in the Brees draft.
Manning, Rivers, Ben were quite a top three, but there wasn't a fourth in that draft.
The Brady draft had Pennington, Marc Bulger, and Brady and no fourth QB. The error was evaluating and picking the top QB, not the reality that the fifth or sixth best QB was any good.
Luck, RGIII, Tennehill, Cousins, Foles were all in the same draft so that is close.
So it is fine to like Allen or Rudolph or Jackson MORE than Rosen or Mayfield or Darnold, but out of those six you have to try to order them so you don't accidentally pick one of the two or three that will be forgotten about in a few years.
My thoughts on the six are (not as QB expert, but putting down things), that Darnold is overrated and will take some time (a year behind Tyrod), but will be pretty good. Rosen will rub a lot of people the wrong way and be easy to root against, but will make a Pro Bowl. Mayfield will be more Wilson/Brees than Manziel/Sanchez, and could be the best in the draft. Jackson and Rudolph will be irrelevant backups.
Allen is the hardest for me to read, and likely the hardest for the NFL evaluators. He has such a high ceiling with his talent, but also a low floor. I hate the low completion percentage, but playing at Wyoming there is more of a reason to give some credence as to the supporting cast and not his ability to throw the ball where it should be. But I need to be impressed with the projections of the two most important qualities of an NFL QB before I would be interested, accuracy and decision making, and I haven't been convinced yet on either (but also not seen strong reasons he will come up short). I just don't see the examples of college QBs posting back to back 56% completion percentages and then being successful in the NFL. So right now I would pass on Allen, but am very aware that if smart guys really see him becoming an accurate passer and a good decision maker, he could be amazing. I just want to stop hearing about athleticism and arm strength like they remotely matter without the other two things.
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38 minutes ago, No Place To Hyde said:
I found it odd that the analyst team kept saying "If you draft this kid in round 1 or round 2"
Don't remember them saying round 2 for the other guys. Maybe the mom agent is shying people away. Not being easy to schedule or get to know hurts as well. Add not running the 40 and it's at least fair to wonder if teams will think he's going to be difficult to work with.
He's slower than Usain Bolt, faster than Vita Vea.
If your player personnel team shies away from someone because they get the voicemail in March a couple times, they probably aren't good at their jobs. If your player personnel team dives deeper and correlates this with a disinterest or flaw in the actual player that they don't think your head coach can overcome, then kudos to have that adjust placement on your big board. We will have to see, but the mom/meeting stuff right now doesn't raise much red flags for me, it just makes it a little harder to have complete information, and means that the team that is persistent and competent enough to get complete information will probably do better in the draft.
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There are almost certainly not four QBs in this draft. But the QBs also very likely will not go in order of their future value, so we don't have to be in the top three to get a top three QB. We have to evaluate better or get lucky.
I am not sure what order I have the four QBs ranked, and I think it is very likely the Jets and Bills do not have the same order. Does Darnold or Allen climb now that they do not have to start day 1? I had preferred Mayfield or Rosen most likely all things equal, but know that that evaluation could be as wrong as Smith over Rodgers or Leaf vs Peyton.
Fingers crossed that our brain trust can pick right in the top two, outside the top two, or even at 12.
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Darnold can't play right away, and I don't think Allen can either. Both of them with big upside need developing.
Rosen and Mayfield are each much more ready to play day 1 or close after.
Obviously we add another QB to the roster from the veteran heap, with a pretty likely situation that he is the #1 as we approach the season to be derailed only by actual training camp performance, and not master plans on paper. But we aren't counting on that veteran to be a long term or even full season solution, so a temporary game manager like McCarron or McCown is a viable solution.
Foles would be more costly, and would be a different strategy, and likely planned on being a multiple year starter if we traded for him.
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22 hours ago, Nihilarian said:
There were reasons as to why both Kelly and Marino fell so late in that year's draft.
Kelly had a shoulder separation so bad in his senior year he needed pins inserted to keep it together and was told by doctors he would never have a full throwing motion. Kelly would have been a top 5 pick or even competed against Elway for that #1 spot if not for that injury.
As for Dan Marino, it was said he partied way too much at Pitt and it was mentioned he smoked weed which caused quite a stir back then.
Tony Eason actually went to a Super Bowl with the Patriots and the playoffs in years after. What didn't help was he was one of the most sacked QB's in the NFL at times and also led in INTs. Steve Grogan and Doug Flutie were also in the QB mix. The guy really only had one good year.
Blackledge was another story as even though he won a national championship at Penn St, he never did step up his game to the NFL level.
Absolutely. And unless we make some major vault into the top three picks, we will need to have some baggage or perceived flaw or missed evaluation by other teams in order to get a top QB. My larger point is that there are just about never four good QBs in a draft, so if you pick the fourth or fifth QB, it should be on the assumption that the other teams got it wrong, or as later round filler/backup.
Right now I would rather have Mayfield's perceived flaws of height and trouble making than Allen's inaccuracy in a superb athletic package. I think Rosen could be special and has flickers of Matt Ryan/Tom Brady in his game, but I don't think he leaves the top three. Darnold I'm not bullish on right now as he has to grow a lot, but I have seen few enough games of him that I'm happy if I am wrong and we steal him.
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35 minutes ago, kdiggz said:
I wouldn't give both 1sts. I would give a 1st and a 2nd since we have an extra one of those as well. But 13th might only get us the 5th best QB and if they trade up and don't take a QB I might throw my tv out the window
We do not trade up to get the 5th best QB. We trade up when we think one of the five QBs who has fallen to a spot is better than fifth best.
A minor but important distinction. I can't remember any draft where the fifth best QB was any good, but I can remember some where the fifth QB chosen was really good.
Obvious example is 1983 where Elway went #1, but then Blackledge was picked at #7 before Kelly went #14, then Eason and O'Brien before Marino went #27.
So that is a draft where there were hall of famers available in the teens and the twenties, but getting the 5th best QB wasn't a good idea, but being better in your ranking and projections of the top three QBs you like than other teams were was the secret.
I don't even remotely consider trading up if we aren't getting someone we think is one of the top three QBs in this draft, but we also hope other teams make mistakes and our #4 and #5 rated QBs get picked earlier than someone in our top 3. But there is just about never a case where there end up being more than three good QBs in a draft, so unless you think you are getting one of YOUR top three, I don't see any reason to draft a QB in the first.
In 2004 we picked the 4th best QB in a three QB draft.
We can read the tea leaves better and smarter than other teams and laugh when they pick Blackledge and we get Kelly, but while the 5th best WR or LB or RB can often be a very useful player, I'm not aware of any time where the 5th best QB was a useful player.
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I think we need a tall wide receiver like James Hardy and probably a DT for our scheme like Torell Troup.
If you draft for need, you end up with inferior football players and other needs. Just keep getting the best players you can and fill needs with free agency.
The one place this is different is if you need a QB and you see one you can get. That is different and if McD and company see any of these guys as a franchise QB they should try to get them if the likelihood and cost match up.
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I definitely don't like Rosen or Darnold enough to Kings Ransom to the top two spots. I think Mayfield will be better than either of them in the NFL and has more Brees than Manziel in his future, but he could end up going too high to get (but if the coaches agree with me on him, they should definitely try to move up for him).
And while I like Alex Smith or Kirk Cousins on our team next year, neither is the long term answer. If either is a realistic possibility they can certainly be a stop gap that allows us to not do any crazy mortgage-the-future trades for non-slam-dunk QB prospects, but we really need to draft someone we think can be an Elite NFL QB in the next couple drafts either way, and if we identify someone in this draft that fits that, starting early and doing it with a lot of draft capital is better than waiting for the next draft or the one after that.
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Just now, matter2003 said:
Because on any long pass the defensive player would be coached to just tackle the receiver if he was beat.
This.
The stuff you don't like is what happens around the current rule. If you knew the worst you could get was 15, defensive players would be way more deliberately aggressive and deep passes would go down a TON. Not what the NFL wants or the fans want.
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Have to identify where we value each of these imperfect players relative to the NFL and see how that fits together.
Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield, Allen, Jackson, Rudolph all could be a consideration to be the top guy from this draft when all is said and done, and someone in that group will go in the top couple picks and someone in that group will still be available at #21.
In addition to that group is the Alex Smith Kirk Cousins option which is a stopgap, but prevents a giant reach/gamble if the chips don't play out right.
I don't know that any of those guys really feel like the guy to trade in to the top three slots and pay the draft capital to do so. Right now I'm most interested in Mayfield especially with his chances of falling out of the top ten, although I think as time presses on he will likely see his stock rise and cost more to go up and get.
But to the prices to pay, if there is a guy we want to move up, I think that a franchise QB is worth a lot more than when we moved to pick Watkins over Odell, and I don't mind if we pay a price for the right guy. I'm just not sure I see that big move to move up guy, and point to what Washington gave up to move up to #2 for RGIII with tons of picks to do so, only to also take Cousins at #102 and we saw how that played out in the big picture.
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I love Peterman as a serviceable backup, and maybe his future can be brighter than that as some backups end up being, but he is not ready to be handed the keys. Excited to have him on the roster, but more Frank Reich than Jim Kelly.
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I love Tyrod, and he is a class guy and gives his all. We can't all be elite NFL QBs no matter how hard we try, But he protected the ball, gave up his body, and exceeded both his draft slot and free agency cost, and got us to the playoffs however much of the credit he deserves or doesn't. We were still alive with one minute left in a playoff game, and only eight teams.
By the way of the eight teams left that did better than we did this year, four have first round QBs, two have HOF QBs, plus Keenum and Foles who are playing because of injuries and haven't won a playoff game yet.
Thanks Tyrod, and we hope you are okay after that final play, and if that was your last snap as a Bill, we wish you well the rest of your career.
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Well, two good things for the Bills came out of last night:
1) Some missed plays in the second half might have people doubt Mayfield more than if he kept rolling like the first half.
2) He doesn't get to play in the championship game and do something else to increase his draft stock.
Now, did he get any better or worse in this game? No. He is the same player he was last week, and still someone I would love to have and really hope we draft. Leadership, Decision Making, Accuracy are all clearly there, and I actually like him more than Watson who I really wished we had taken at #10 at the time. So if the Bills leadership agrees on how good the player was three days ago, the fact that he didn't write any legend stuff yesterday to increase his stock is fine with me. I can see him available at our first pick happens without trading up, but I would also be fine trading up if necessary.
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I am a huge fan the more I see. Much more Wilson or Brees than he is Manziel.
I like him more than Darnold definitely and I think he will be better than Rosen (who will be good). Hoping like Brees and Wilson he falls out of the top of the draft, but I would happily go up for him. Maybe not the ransom to get to the top three but he is the player we want.
Hoping his perceived flaws let him fall despite his big spotlight success like Watson last year.
The top three attributes for a quarterback are decision making, accuracy, and leadership. You can do just fine without a Ryan Leaf arm or Jamarcus Russell hands or Brock Osweiler height
Let's do it..
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Raiders block a field goal attempt and get the ball at the Chargers 30 after it bounces around!
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Revisiting the draft
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
Every draft has imperfections, some by bad decisions (Whitner over Ngata, Maybin over Orakpo both of which all of us at TSW called ahead of time), some just by players outperforming what could have reasonably be expected from them on draft day. I'm pleased with the Allen and Edmund picks and excited to watch them develop into stars over the next few years. There is no draft where there aren't things to change with hindsight, and even without dipping onto Brady (who the PATRIOTS passed on six times!).
Getting good players as often as you can, accepting a bust when it happens, and getting lucky once in a while is what you hope for. These both seem like good players. Tough to look back at passing on Mahomes right now, but the draft is an inexact science, I think somewhat because it can never be that accurate, but also because it is an informational inefficiency that teams do not execute very well and a smarter team can do better (but never perfect).
I'm hoping we select a star player at #17 next June because wins are more valuable than draft slots unless you are trying to get your franchise QB.