Dibs
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I pointed that out when I did the big list...the article forgot him.
1 QB didn't change the percentages much though...
72% are busts or not good enough.
Only 19% get to the big game.
ONLY 12.5% WIN THE SUPER BOWL!
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I did a similar study during last season, and had similar findings.
50% Bust
25% Journeyman quality
25% Legit long-term starter
To the earlier poster who pointed out (correctly) that lower picks have longer odds, I would differ from his conclusion that teams in need need to pick their qb in the first round. Instead, I think the best strategy based on this data is that you pick a qb every year, and do not put all your eggs in his basket. You do not take a step back to develop him on the field, because the chances are you will spend years sapping the morale of the team just to find out he's not your guy. You keep these qb's on the bench untill they show they are better than the guy starting.
Do you have to do it that way? Of course not. I simply think this strategy has the best W-L payoff for the franchise over time.
I quite like that theory. If you combine it with the "in the trenches" theory & use 1st round picks on the lines each year then when you (eventually) strike it rich at lower round QB you will have an awesome line(theoretically) protecting him & providing a good running game.
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Which raises the question again....why did the 49ers make the trade.
They said they needed starters & were less interested in depth.
Is it just me or does this just sound wrong considering the depth of this draft.
I agree with the 49ers trading down from #6 theory(won't be to us though).
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I think there is a good argument though to suggest a QB with exceptional awareness can succeed with an average O-line. Brady would be the most prominant example for this.
I think a top O-line(& weapons) can make a QB look better than he is but a true Pro bowl QB(Favre, Montana, Elway, Manning, etc) makes all around him look better.
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Mistake in article...Bledsoe also made the superbowl.
I had a bit of time so...
# of 1st round QBs from 1986-2002 = 32
2003-2005(too early to tell)
COMPLETE BUST = 14
NOT GOOD ENOUGH(injuries included) = 5
PRO BOWLER = 7(4 are not really good enough to win)
SUPERBOWL WINNER = 2(both pro bowlers)
SUPERBOWL LOSER = 4(all pro bowlers)
As you can see, 72% are busts or not good enough.
Only 19% get to the big game.
ONLY 12.5% WIN THE SUPER BOWL!
I personally don't think it is as simple as they go to rubbish teams so therefore become busts. Some moved on to other teams to earn pro bowls & super bowls.
A lot of the QBs were picked lower in the draft(by O.K. teams) & were still busts.
I'm starting to think the QB position might be too difficult for scouts to analyse at the college level.
Minimally, I think there is no extra reason for drafting a QB higher just because he is a QB. Too much emphasis is placed upon a 1st round QB.
()=number of pro bowls
1986
3 Jim Everett(1) - HOU
12 Chuck Long - DET
1987
1 Vinny Testaverde(2) - T.B.
6 Kelly Stouffer - St. L
13 Chris Miller(1)- ATL
26 Jim Harbaugh(1)- CHI
1988 - none
1989
1 Troy Aikman(6) - DAL
1990
1 Jeff George - IND
7 Andre Ware - DET
1991
16 Dan McGwire - SEA
24 Todd Marinovich - OAK
1992
6 David Klingler - CIN
25 Tommy Maddox - DEN
1993
1 Drew Bledsoe(4) - N.E.
2 Rick Mirer - SEA
1994
3 Heath Shuler - WAS
6 Trent Dilfer(1) - T.B.
1995
3 Steve McNair(2) - HOU
5 Kerry Collins(1) - CAR
1996 - none
1997
26 Jim Druckenmiller - S.F.
1998
1 Peyton Manning(6) - IND
2 Ryan Leaf - S.D.
1999
1 Tim Couch - CLE
2 Donovan McNabb(5) - PHI
3 Akili Smith - CIN
11 Daunte Culpepper(3) - MIN
12 Cade McNown - CHI
2000
18 Chad Pennington - NYJ
2001
1 Michael Vick(3) - ATL
2002
1 David Carr - HOU
3 Joey Harrington- DET
32 Patrick Ramsey - WAS
2003
1 Carson Palmer(1) - CIN
7 Byron Leftwich - JAX
19 Kyle Boller - BAL
22 Rex Grossman - CHI
2004
1 Eli Manning - NYG
4 Philip Rivers - S.D.
11 Ben Roethlisberger - PIT
22 J.P. Losman - BUF
2005
1 Alex Smith - S.F.
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I've made comment recently about how I believe one needs a top QB to win Super Bowls.
I stand by that thought though....
Where do you find said top QB?
I would have thought high 1st round in the draft...hell, 1st round period.
This article puts a dampner on my thoughts.
Linky: http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/draft06/colu...02=stateChanged
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Look at the long-term results from the 2001 draft:
Round 1: Nate Clements. Result: contract expired after 5 years.
Round 2a: Aaron Schobel. Result: solid starter locked up long-term.
Round 2b: Travis Henry. Result: failed to provide enough of an upgrade over Antowain Smith to have been worth a 2nd round pick.
Round 3: Jonas Jennings. Result: Jennings was allowed to hit free agency after just four years. Lost to San Francisco.
Rounds 4 - 7: Brandon Spoon, Marques Sullivan, Tony Driver, Dan O'Leary, Jimmy Williams, Reggie Germany, Tyrone Robertson. Result: none.
After five years, the lone unblemished success story of this draft is Aaron Schobel.
Clements... could still sign a multi-deal & be here for life....is a top player!!!!
Henry...made 2 pro-bowls & we recouped a 3rd rounder(could get a top DT)
Jennings...was considered a good starter(look how much S.F. gave him), started heaps of games for us.
I don't mind TD being knocked for not looking after the lines, his bad pick of coaches, his letting go of the wrong players, his bad handling of personel etc etc etc.....
but
I always thought his drafting & free agent acquisitions were pretty good.
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*sniff*... *sniff*
Well it wasn't me.
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Actually he said....
I think it's a good choice.Even if he did, what's wrong with people taking in more information, reassessing something & changing their opinion?
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No.
True.
True.
I know this doesn't apply to you but...
a lot of people(especially Bills fans it seems) look at things with an automatic negative slant.
i.e. if something isn't fantastic/great/good it must be terrible/rubbish/crap.
It is like alright/O.K./not-bad is not a part of their thought process.
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You do realize that who we draft is not determined by consensus on 'The Wall'?
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I think you made this point(about a different player) to me the other day....
You'd think I would have remembered it.
I agree with the point but....the real scouts wouldn't have know just how fast he is.
I think it was that speed etc that got him up into potential top 10.....mind you, a top 10 TE would be expected to have elite physical ability.
Regarding Davis, I think the combine assessments rightly elevated his stock to a top 10 prospect.
There you go....watch Dibs do a 180
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I don't think anyone is saying Davis is a bad football player....just that his stock seemed to be greatly elevated due to the combine.
It's the concept of rating a players physical abilities above their playing abilities therefore achieving an unrealistic assessment.
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I suppose this isn't to say Davis won't be awesome....
perhaps at the college level with generally weaker opposition, all the TEs could show their stuff. Maybe at the pro level, only Davis really has the physical goods to stand out....which was only truly discovered at the combine.
Did I just have a bite out of both sides of the apple?
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I don't think they were refering to anyone in particular but as a concept it fits to a greater or lesser degree with a lot of players.
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I think you're right. It wasn't so long back there were several TEs all considered around the same level.....
then the combine & BOOM!!!!
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why do I keep hearing that we have enough talent at Wr, after Evans we have no talent at WR.
Price has one good eye, couldn't make it in Dallas last year.
Davis-has been a bust in the pros, evan the game he tied the record for the longest catch (at 99 yards) he couldn't break the 100 mark (1 catch for 99 yards)
Josh reed-improved last year, but was at the end of his first contract.
Roscoe-he's 5'8" 160 pounds, he is not Hall, Smith or Moss-he is Roscoe and he is small, and he can not get off of the line.
Fast Freddie-funny thing is he is neither, his name really isn't freddie and he is not fast.
aikens-still looking for the talent, great special teamer.
That said, I'd be happy with Stovall in the 3rd.
Glass half empty much?
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1st round QBs
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
I have looked at the other rounds &.....
From years 1986-2001
(I only counted rounds 2-7 since 8+ are no longer used)
# of QBs drafted in rounds 2-7 = 127
# of QBs of long term starter caliber(including pro bowlers) = 18(14%)
--plus Warner(undrafted), B. Johnson(9th round), Elvis Grbac & Trent Green(8th round)
# of QBs to make Superbowl or considered good enough = 13(10%)
# of QBs to make the superbowl = 6(5%)
# of QBs to win the superbowl = 3
--Brad Johnson drafted 9th round won with Bucs
--Warner undrafted won with Rams
Using the 'trade value chart' there would obviously be far better value/pick with rounds 2-7 rather than round 1.