Dibs
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Posts posted by Dibs
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For some reaosn, D'brick is the one top marquee player i see as a likely candidate to fall to the bills over any other of the top 5. hawk could fall, but i think the saints are going to find a way to get him. I see D'brick falling to us in this way...
Hou - bush (obviously)
NYJ (from NO) - leinart (they need some big name to get the fans pumped again, plus they can adress other needs at the #29)
Ten - young (who they want all along)
NO - Hawk
GB - Williams (they might take D'brick, but with williams slipping to 5, they cant pass on him)
SF - Davis
Oak - Huff
Buffalo - Ferguson...and all is well
I like it (& agree with your thoughts on NO re. Hawk)
Now comes the difficult part.
Make it happen!
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Sounds great, but I really don't see the Saints using a top 5 pick on a QB - they simply would have too much money tied into that position after signing Brees. Unless they realize that Brees isn't going to be healthy and they need another top QB I just don't see them going for that position so early.
At the risk of being a bit facetious....
They won't pick a top QB....unless they do pick a top QB?
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With all due respect, this is simply not true imo. In fact, I would guess that OTs have a higher success rate in the early first round than any other position, except for perhaps Guards
Check out how many of the OGs drafted in the 1st round have made it to the superbowl/playoffs!
Agreed(though I can't be bothered researching again)
It has only been the last few years that the busts have been common.
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If it would just come true.
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You wrote that just to get a response didn't you???
#4 1983 Chris Hinton 7 pro bowls
#2 1984 Dean Steinkuhler 5 pro bowls
#2 1995 Tony Boselli 5 pro bowls
#4 1996 Jonathan Ogden 9 pro bowls
#1 1997 Orlando Pace 7 pro bowls
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Unfortunately according to the 'trade value chart' that deal would be very unlikely to happen.
8 = 1400
17 = 950
48 = 420
51 = 390
As you can see 2 seconds isn't going to happen.
their 115(4th) = 64
our #8 for their 17,51 & 115.....not nearly as nice
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Why trade NC. We will have to do some driving (negotiate tough on a long term deal for him) but we are in the driver's seat regarding NC. Since the yearly cap hit at CB was lowered by the balloon payment to Winfield coming off the top 5 CB salaries his cap hit is lowered. Meanwhile, the overall cap goes way up with the nwq TV deal kicking in so we can easily afford to pay him.
Throwing a hissy fit does not work at all for him as we now are late in the team building process and by the time the draft is done everyone will be set at CB for the most part.
He is coming off a disappointing year and since we tagged him he will need to play hard in 06 to produce or he will be negotiating as an FA next year coming off two disappointing seasons in a row.
Negotiate hard with NC and if we make a long term deal it will give him a far bigger paycheck than he has ever gotten before ad he will be here for perhaps his term as a player so he should be fairly content though he will be disappointed he did not get the top CB dollar in the league.
I think it should work out even better for us if he simply plays under the tag. He must perform and also has a lot of financial reasons to be a good boy so he is more attractive as an FA not simply to owners but also to his fellow players as a good teammate.
Even better, the CBA allows us to tag him again if we choose if he plays well in 06.
I'm thinking either we sign him up now to a long term deal or we lose him next year. Taging him next year will cost another 20% on top of what he gets this year.
May as well pay him buckets now (we have heaps of cap room at the moment).
Charles Woodson was a good example last year of what we will be looking at if we tag him again next year.
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I am not sold on Bunkley, Ngata nor Justice...
Slim slim slim chance of getting D'brick(or is that just wishful thinking
)I expect us to get Davis or Huff & I'd be happy with it.
I want us to take the best player available (though I'd balk a bit at a QB)
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I'm so confused.
You say done deal.
Bills WILL draft Ngata.
http://www.stadiumwall.com/index.php?showt...59entry665859
This guy says NO WAY will we draft him.
Who do I believe?
Ooooh, who do I believe?
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I'm so confused.
You say NO WAY.
Bills wont draft Ngata.
http://www.stadiumwall.com/index.php?showtopic=45317&st=0
This guy says it's a done deal regardless of who else is available.
Who do I believe?
Ooooh, who do I believe?
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I have looked at the other rounds &.....
From years 1986-2001
(I only counted rounds 2-7 since 8+ are no longer used)
# of QBs drafted in rounds 2-7 = 127
# of QBs of long term starter caliber(including pro bowlers) = 18(14%)
--plus Warner(undrafted), B. Johnson(9th round), Elvis Grbac & Trent Green(8th round)
# of QBs to make Superbowl or considered good enough = 13(10%)
# of QBs to make the superbowl = 6(5%)
# of QBs to win the superbowl = 3
--Brad Johnson drafted 9th round won with Bucs
--Warner undrafted won with Rams
Using the 'trade value chart' there would obviously be far better value/pick with rounds 2-7 rather than round 1.
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I pointed that out when I did the big list...the article forgot him.
1 QB didn't change the percentages much though...
72% are busts or not good enough.
Only 19% get to the big game.
ONLY 12.5% WIN THE SUPER BOWL!
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I did a similar study during last season, and had similar findings.
50% Bust
25% Journeyman quality
25% Legit long-term starter
To the earlier poster who pointed out (correctly) that lower picks have longer odds, I would differ from his conclusion that teams in need need to pick their qb in the first round. Instead, I think the best strategy based on this data is that you pick a qb every year, and do not put all your eggs in his basket. You do not take a step back to develop him on the field, because the chances are you will spend years sapping the morale of the team just to find out he's not your guy. You keep these qb's on the bench untill they show they are better than the guy starting.
Do you have to do it that way? Of course not. I simply think this strategy has the best W-L payoff for the franchise over time.
I quite like that theory. If you combine it with the "in the trenches" theory & use 1st round picks on the lines each year then when you (eventually) strike it rich at lower round QB you will have an awesome line(theoretically) protecting him & providing a good running game.
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Which raises the question again....why did the 49ers make the trade.
They said they needed starters & were less interested in depth.
Is it just me or does this just sound wrong considering the depth of this draft.
I agree with the 49ers trading down from #6 theory(won't be to us though).
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I think there is a good argument though to suggest a QB with exceptional awareness can succeed with an average O-line. Brady would be the most prominant example for this.
I think a top O-line(& weapons) can make a QB look better than he is but a true Pro bowl QB(Favre, Montana, Elway, Manning, etc) makes all around him look better.
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Mistake in article...Bledsoe also made the superbowl.
I had a bit of time so...
# of 1st round QBs from 1986-2002 = 32
2003-2005(too early to tell)
COMPLETE BUST = 14
NOT GOOD ENOUGH(injuries included) = 5
PRO BOWLER = 7(4 are not really good enough to win)
SUPERBOWL WINNER = 2(both pro bowlers)
SUPERBOWL LOSER = 4(all pro bowlers)
As you can see, 72% are busts or not good enough.
Only 19% get to the big game.
ONLY 12.5% WIN THE SUPER BOWL!
I personally don't think it is as simple as they go to rubbish teams so therefore become busts. Some moved on to other teams to earn pro bowls & super bowls.
A lot of the QBs were picked lower in the draft(by O.K. teams) & were still busts.
I'm starting to think the QB position might be too difficult for scouts to analyse at the college level.
Minimally, I think there is no extra reason for drafting a QB higher just because he is a QB. Too much emphasis is placed upon a 1st round QB.
()=number of pro bowls
1986
3 Jim Everett(1) - HOU
12 Chuck Long - DET
1987
1 Vinny Testaverde(2) - T.B.
6 Kelly Stouffer - St. L
13 Chris Miller(1)- ATL
26 Jim Harbaugh(1)- CHI
1988 - none
1989
1 Troy Aikman(6) - DAL
1990
1 Jeff George - IND
7 Andre Ware - DET
1991
16 Dan McGwire - SEA
24 Todd Marinovich - OAK
1992
6 David Klingler - CIN
25 Tommy Maddox - DEN
1993
1 Drew Bledsoe(4) - N.E.
2 Rick Mirer - SEA
1994
3 Heath Shuler - WAS
6 Trent Dilfer(1) - T.B.
1995
3 Steve McNair(2) - HOU
5 Kerry Collins(1) - CAR
1996 - none
1997
26 Jim Druckenmiller - S.F.
1998
1 Peyton Manning(6) - IND
2 Ryan Leaf - S.D.
1999
1 Tim Couch - CLE
2 Donovan McNabb(5) - PHI
3 Akili Smith - CIN
11 Daunte Culpepper(3) - MIN
12 Cade McNown - CHI
2000
18 Chad Pennington - NYJ
2001
1 Michael Vick(3) - ATL
2002
1 David Carr - HOU
3 Joey Harrington- DET
32 Patrick Ramsey - WAS
2003
1 Carson Palmer(1) - CIN
7 Byron Leftwich - JAX
19 Kyle Boller - BAL
22 Rex Grossman - CHI
2004
1 Eli Manning - NYG
4 Philip Rivers - S.D.
11 Ben Roethlisberger - PIT
22 J.P. Losman - BUF
2005
1 Alex Smith - S.F.
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I've made comment recently about how I believe one needs a top QB to win Super Bowls.
I stand by that thought though....
Where do you find said top QB?
I would have thought high 1st round in the draft...hell, 1st round period.
This article puts a dampner on my thoughts.
Linky: http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/draft06/colu...02=stateChanged
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Look at the long-term results from the 2001 draft:
Round 1: Nate Clements. Result: contract expired after 5 years.
Round 2a: Aaron Schobel. Result: solid starter locked up long-term.
Round 2b: Travis Henry. Result: failed to provide enough of an upgrade over Antowain Smith to have been worth a 2nd round pick.
Round 3: Jonas Jennings. Result: Jennings was allowed to hit free agency after just four years. Lost to San Francisco.
Rounds 4 - 7: Brandon Spoon, Marques Sullivan, Tony Driver, Dan O'Leary, Jimmy Williams, Reggie Germany, Tyrone Robertson. Result: none.
After five years, the lone unblemished success story of this draft is Aaron Schobel.
Clements... could still sign a multi-deal & be here for life....is a top player!!!!
Henry...made 2 pro-bowls & we recouped a 3rd rounder(could get a top DT)
Jennings...was considered a good starter(look how much S.F. gave him), started heaps of games for us.
I don't mind TD being knocked for not looking after the lines, his bad pick of coaches, his letting go of the wrong players, his bad handling of personel etc etc etc.....
but
I always thought his drafting & free agent acquisitions were pretty good.
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The "expert" mock drafter. Rick Gosselin
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
I didn't mean to cause offense.
My post was a summary of yours.
All I was doing was pointing out that you think they won't
...unless 'x' event happens
...which means they then will.
They won't unless they will
I know you think it unlikely....so do I. I was just playing word games.