Lothar
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Posts posted by Lothar
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More fodder for the grist mill when it comes to our offensive failings.
- 2004 passing offense as compared to 2003 -
26th in yards per attempt vs. 26th
26th in completion percentage vs. 16th
22nd in percent passes intercepted vs. 10th
14th in percent passes for a score vs. 32nd
26th in sacks vs. 32nd
25th in passer rating vs. 22nd
Compared to 2003, I suppose these are baby steps forward. However, this comparison clearly show our offense no longer requires spectacular QB play - merely a solid caretaker. However, I anticipate if we want to become an elite team, our QB should at least be in the middlle of the pack in most of these categories. This, in addition to our late game failings, indicates a change at QB is unlikely to do much harm to this offense - considering where we're starting from. Losman - or I suppose Bledsoe - if we don't want the future to get here quicker, doesn't need to be brilliant next year, just mediocre and this team gets to the playoffs. If JP has the moxie to avoid sacks and drive us to a game winning touchdown or 2, we will become an elite team.
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I hear you brother. Team loss, but I'm sure if we were playing San Fran, he'd make it. Malarkey really doesn't trust Lindell - from long distance (only 3 of 12 attempts the last 2 years) or in close games. So when things get hairy, I guess I'm not surprised the kid has no confidence. Like SoCal says, he's young - we've cut good kickers when they were young and unwilling to let them grow into their position before. All that being said, if we can get a clutch veteran kicker for next season, I'm all for it.
right now i don't care about success rate from 40+. this numbskull missed a 28-FREAKING-YARDER when the bills had to have it.lindell didn't throw a bad interception and he didn't take a sack/fumble and he didn't allow 2nd- and 3rd-stringers to eat up 9 minutes of the 4th quarter. but his gaffe was directly responsible for a shift in momentum that contributed to the loss.
lindell is not an elite kicker and as long as he's kicking for buffalo i'll be holding my breath at every attempt.
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Lets research before we start hammering Lindell. He missed four FG. One that would have made the game a tie against JJ, 42yarder . Two that we won a 43 and a 38 yarder and the one against the PS we still would have lost anyways.
So lets look at some of the other kickers in the league.
I don't completely disagree. However, do YOUR research and you'll see he has the LOWEST % of successful FG over 40 yards the last 2 years of any regular kicker.
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I'm pissed off about this last game and in lieu of sleep (I get the day off tomorrow) I'm trying too hard to understand why we make a habit of losing close games.
In our last 9 games decided by less than 7 points, we have lost 8 of em. This can be explained in one of 2 ways: either our offense and defense are not mentally tough enough to win close games or our kicking game is untrustworthy and inadequate - or both.
In several of these close games, our offense was mostly putrid - so I give them, and Drew specifically, a good chunk of the blame for 6 of these losses. Our defense contributed to 4 of these losses allowing last minute drives despite holding teams off for most of the game. However, most remember that Lindell did play a role in some of these losses. In 4 of the 8 games, his misses were directly responsible for the margin of defeat. You also have to give him marginal credit for helping win against the Jets. In last year's putrid season, those 2 losses probably didn't matter much because the team was so bad. However the Jacksonville and Pitt misses were gimmes for a good kicker and contributed heavily to our missing the postseason.
2003
11/9 @ Dallas Cowboys L 6-10 - makes 2 of 2 FG, offense horrible
11/16 Houston Texans L 10-12 - misses 2 of 4 field goals
11/23 Indianapolis Colts L 14-17 - missed 48 yarder, offense horrible, defense wears down
12/14 @ Tennessee Titans L 26-28 - makes 2 of 2 FG, defense choked against Volek (who looks like a player now)
2004
9/12 JacksonvilleJaguars L 13-10 - missed 1st half 41yarder, defense choked
9/19 @ Oakland Raiders L 13-10 - offense sucked till the last 5 minutes
10/10 @ New York Jets L 16-14 - offense sucked till last 5 minutes, defense chokes
11/7 New York Jets W 22-17 - made 19 and 29 yarders, offense consumes last 4 mins
1/2/05 Pittsburgh L 29-24 - missed 28 yarder, offense sucked after 1st TD drive, defense doesn't live up to the hype
Kicker
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I actually thought Bills Nation was too tough on Ryan Lindell for much of this year since he was better than 80% and not given many opportunities to win close games. Plus on two occasions when he actually attempted long field goals (45+ yards), he made them - only to have points taken of the board by coaching timeout blunders. But a kicker's life is all about confidence. Mularkey's lack of confidence in him is brought on by his bad year last year - supposedly the result of an injury he kept from the fans and media. Unfortunately, just as Vinatieri and Vanderjagt are automatic in the clutch (as were Christie and for the most part, Norwood), most kickers putz around on several teams before becoming good. Look, we cut Gary Anderson and Shane Graham ourselves so I'm wary about letting a decent kicker go before he gets his confidence rolling. Sometimes you have to live with growing pains. Now that the Bills have clambered above mediocrity, we can't afford a mediocre kicker. Unless we get a proven Mr. Automatic (Vanderjagt is due to be a FA - or we get Nugent in the 2nd round), I think we give Lindell 1 more shot.
Offense
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The fact that the offense has as much trouble as it does in these close games has to be laid at the feet of the QB. I think Drew's played reasonably well when we play against bad to middling teams. He exudes confidence when McGahee's churning yards and he gets 5 seconds to throw and I'm especially happy that he's willing to scramble a bit when the pressure's on now. But the elite teams all have QBs that can win a game for you when you're down by 7 with 2 minutes to go. They will their teams to victory in those situations. At the very least, we go into camp giving JP a chance at winning the starting job. We may take a small step back before moving forward but this kid has the tools, he's a hard worker and he's got better coaches than most anyone else. I was a bit disappointed in Moulds' season but I'm not sure if that's mostly him or the coaches. He didn't seem to get many opportunities beyond 10 yards but Drew also didn't seem to go to him in the clutch. Evans is a star in the making. Campbell and Euhus are fine for this kind of team - especially if Losman takes over. If Drew stays, we may need another pass catching option. I'm mixed about Jennings - he's a good left tackle, not great. But he gets nicked up way too often. Get a couple OL in the draft or FA and I think this unit is set.
Defense
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For as well as they played all season, there's something nagging about their failures in close games as well. Some of that may be because we don't have a Bruce Smith to provide a game changing pass rush in the last drive of the game. But Gray's schemes work for the most part. I'm more troubled by the run defense against good teams. Pitt, New England, Baltimore and Cincy all scorched our run defense - and that's WITH Phat Pat and Big Sam. If we lose Pat, we may actually drop back a bit in run defense but Edwards and Anderson need playing time too. I'd try to keep Pat - more for continuity on defense. If he asks for top DT money, we gotta move on. All in all, though - as our offense gets better, I don't think we want to tweak this unit much. Hopefully Vincent and Milloy will anchor this secondary for 3-4 years and the youngsters develop. I thought Clements sucked last year but was spectacular this year - he's a probowler-in-the-making and we've gotta tie him up long term before the end of next year.
Coaching
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I thought Malarkey did a great job establishing his offensive gameplan. I still think Clements compensated too much for Drew's failings against elite teams - meaning they had more dumpoffs and fewer long throws than they would with a reasonably mobile QB. Mouse McNally's the real deal. The OL became a competent unit as they played together. Jerry Gray will be a head coach in the next 2 or 3 years.
As painful as this loss was (losing to scrubs - r u kiddin' me?), I'm going to go with the idea that the team was trying too hard and overcompensating for the lack of a passing game. (Nanananananana - I don't hear you if you're saying we suck compared to the good teams.)
Overall, you gotta love the direction the team's going. We had a hot start last year - a hot finish this year. Let's see if we can put it all together next season.
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I think this is good and bad - I counted at least a half dozen times when there were 8 or 9 men in the box and we'd just run Willis into the pile for a 3 yard loss. For only playing 9 or so games, McGahee still leads the league in negative yardage runs. Some of that is his hesitation in looking for the hole. But another aspect of this is the caoching staff willing to stumble on offense (especially in the running game) and not give Drew too much responsibility. The revived run game took a step back this week - we really need to get that cranked up cause I'm not sure you can count on 4 + turnovers from the opposition each game.
I took interesting note of the announcers saying that Bledsoe had told them one of the reasons for the team's better play was that the Bills braintrust has simplified the offense by stripping out a lot of the audibles which could be called.This certainly made sense to me as I have felt that one of our problems last year was that in addition to Kevin Killdrive being a bit too pass-happy in his play calling, there also seemed to be a number of plays where based on the time Bledsoe took to call the play and shifts in our set-up seemingly based on play changes which I assumed came on Bledsoe audibling we went to some unsucessful (many of them pass) plays.
I think one of the primary benefits of limiting the audibles we can call is quite frankly that it has taken Bledsoe and his brain out of the playcalling. This team apparently called pass plays on some extraordinary number of third and short yardage down and distance last year. i think this may well be true because Killdrive called too many passes and then when he did call a run, Bledsoe himself would audible out of them.
At any rate, the Bills play calling is much improved this year. We may be being a bit too clever by half as I think that a couple of times we have taken Lindell points off the board by calling late TOs on kicks that he made may be because our braintrust was setting up tendencies on future play calling. However, this is a small price to pay for our success the last few games.
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very nice kelso - I know those percentages are somewhat arbitrary so the resulting odds feed off those numbers but I too now give our Bills about a 1 in 3 chance - assuming we win our last 2. This is down from about 50% given Green Bay's tribute to the postal service (mailing it in). I really think it's up to the Jags now - I don't see Denver playing well enough to hold off Indy no matter what the situation.
If the Bills finish 8-8, they would be mathematically eliminated from the playoffs.If the Bills finish 9-7, they would need all 3 of the following scenarios to occur to make the playoffs:
1. Ravens lose their last 2 games
2. Broncos lose their last 2 games (OR lose 1 of 2 in the unlikely situation that the Bills lost to the 49ers but beat the Steelers to get to 9-7)
3. Jags lose their last 2 games
If the Bills finish 10-6, they would need 3 of the 4 following scenarios to occur to make the playoffs:
1. Jets lose their last 2 games
2. Ravens lose 1 of their last 2 games
3. Broncos lose 1 of their last 2 games
4. Jags lose 1 of their last 2 games
And here's a schedule of the remaining games of any relevance to us:
(Note: * or *** means that game directly affects our mathematical chances of making the playoffs)
Week 15:
Monday night game:
Dolphins (H) over Patriots - could affect how the Steelers play us in Week 17
Week 16:
Saturday, 8:30pm game:
Titans (H) over Broncos *
1pm games:
Steelers (H) over Ravens *
Texans over Jags (H) *
Chargers vs. Colts (H) - depends on who you'd want to play in the 1st round
4pm games:
Bills over 49ers (H) ***
Patriots over Jets (H) *
Week 17
1pm games:
Bills (H) over Steelers ***
Fins over Ravens (H) *
Rams (H) over Jets *
49ers over Patriots (H) - could be relevant only for playoff seeding
4pm games:
Chiefs vs. Chargers (H) - irrelevant if top 2 AFC seeds are clinched by this point
Raiders (H) over Jags *
Colts over Broncos (H) *
And here's my probability listing:
(Note: for reasons of sanity, I've divided the probabilities only into 5 increments: heavily favored win - 80%, likely win - 65%, too close to call - 50%, likely loss - 35%, heavily favored loss - 20%]
Bills over 49ers in Week 16: 80%
Bills over Steelers in Week 17: 50% (assuming Steelers will have something to play for by this game - very likely)
Jets over Pats in Week 16: 35%
Jets over Rams in Week 17: 65%
Ravens over Steelers in Week 16: 35%
Ravens over Fins in Week 17: 80%
Broncos over Titans in Week 16: 65%
Broncos over Colts in Week 17: 80% (assuming Colts have nothing to play for by this game - a very likely situation)
Jags over Texans in Week 16: 65%
Jags over Raiders in Week 17: 65%
So based on these probabilities, here are the chances of the Bills making the playoffs:
(Note: the chances of the Bills making the playoffs at 9-7 is about .1% and therefore statistically irrelevant)
Chance of Bills finishing 10-6: 40%
Chance of Jets losing both games: 22.75%
Chance of Ravens losing 1 game: 72%
Chance of Broncos losing 1 game: 48%
Chance of Jags losing 1 game: 57.75%
Total chance of Bills getting the necessary outside help: 29.97%
Total chance of Bills making the playoffs: 11.99%
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don't like this predictability - 9 men in box, we still run - they mention we don't audible much anymore
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small hands Kitna - thank you
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The combination of extreme cold, snow showers and wind make the elements a big part of this week's game. I really can see things breaking either way depending on mistakes.
When Cincy has the ball
Kitna has small hands, is prone to fumbling (I believe he's the NFL QB career leader on that front) and will obviously be a bit more rusty than Carson Palmer would have been. That said, his strength is his decision making and getting throws into the hands of his receivers quickly. I think Cincy moves the ball on us, but we have to keep the pressure on with various zone blitzes and see if we can force a fumble or 2 out of the QB and receivers. I really do think that Cincy will move the ball between the 20s on us unless we force a bunch of turnovers. I like the way our D is playing right now, with confidence and smarts. We have the playmakers to cause opponents' problems in the red zone and need to keep their potent O to FGs instead of touchdowns.
When Buffalo has the ball
I like our special teams to give us the edge in field position. That may be critical in this game since the expected weather doesn't play to Drew's strength - I know he has a cannon but that doesn't matter if the ball's wet and cold. Obviously, we need a healthy dose of Willis in this game - we also need to be patient if things aren't rolling for us early. By the 2nd quarter, I hope we've established the run enough to open up that intermediate passing game. Drew has had three horrible games out of 13 - against Baltimore, at the Patriots and last week against the Browns. This past week was because the team was trying to force the ball into Moulds time and again. Drew has to let the game come to him or it could be a long day.
Summary
Bills have lost 9 straight games decided by less than a touvhdown. This game has close written all over it unless the weather causes a turnover festival. Call it a hunch though - I'm going with the Bills in a tight one.
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Interesting comments from Ace Freeley (with apologies to Tasker and Criqui) - he said they were surprised the Bills started the game trying to play cover 2 against em given the problems their OL had. He thought they changed up in the 2nd half to doing what every other team does against them and try to put pressure and caused them a lot more problems. I have noticed that Gray has been employing a more vanilla scheme in the 1st quarter or so before ratcheting up the blitz schemes - though I haven't seen any exotic zone blitzes the last few weeks either.
To be honest, I don't think the Bills did a good job either with the pass rush or much of their coverage. And this despite the 5 picks. I was surprised how little pressure the Bills managed on the maligned Fins OL. I excuse our offense a bit because of the injuries and the fact they're playing a good D. But the defense seemed outa sorts on coverage for most of the 1st 3 quarters or so. I'm not sure if that first quarter was just blown coverages due to youthful mistakes or that Feeley had ample time to find receivers. Make no mistake - if we want to play with the big boys this year, we really do need Troy Vincent back. I think we have some developing players in the back (including McGee and Baker) but they're not ready to take on playoff caliber teams just yet.
But the sign of a team that is maturing is the fact that they won without their A game. Let's hope it's a sign of good things to come.
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good news - looks like TD made a smart move not re-signing Jennings
bad news - he didn't wait till the end of the year to sign Schobel
If he waits a couple more years, we can start from scratch.
I'm sorry - seeing my team at these depths - and I think a good chunk of it is abslutely no confidence in anything they're doing - makes me long for bad Sabres hockey. At least that game moves faster - not the Sabres mind you, just the puck.
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i can't bear to watch this travesty of a performance anymore - maybe later this season, they'll resemble a football team.
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sucks.
While I'm pissed at everything about the game result, I now also have a new candidate for "most awful" announcer - and though I loved everything about Tasker as a player, he may be the worst NFL commentator I've ever heard. I heard him as a play-by-play announcer in the preseason and he was awful, but this - this was bordering on pathetic. When you long for Theismann or Maguire or any of the non descript jaw flappers covering other games, you know the coverage has reached a new low.
He regularly called the wrong player's name (obviously not looking at the monitor on replays), offered little to no insight (seemed to contradict common sense on several red flag reviews) and seemed to talk for the sake of talking - the cardinal sin of a good analyst. Since he is part of the Bills family, I hope he learns the trade before it's too late. I'd like to see him talk in more detail about special teams tactics or playing the dual role of regular and special teams or something.
Sorry to rail at a Bills' icon - I guess I'm just blowing off steam after the painful result.
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I hate piling on with a "great job" kudo but that was way better than just a good post. Insightful commentary, inside info - what more could we Wallers want? Thanks a lot Mark.
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Have the same problems - don't see the buttons below the description.
The Good News From This Season
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
Only a handfull of teams have a Shockey or Gonzales. If we try to improve here, that would be more for Drew's benefit than Losman. Our TEs need to be great blockers first.
Finding clutch kickers aint easy. Unless we draft a Nugent or sign a Vanderjagt, I think we let Lindell grow into this position for 1 more year.
OK FFS but the stats show that Bledsoe ranked in the botom 3rd of QBs in nearly every measurable category. If Losman's an air breather and his knuckles don't drag, we shouldn't be any worse off.