Lothar
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Posts posted by Lothar
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From the front office interviews over on the official Bills site, I think it more likely we trade back down into the second to get a top TE. I think now they see 4 or 5 bg receivers about the same and expect one to fall to them.
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WIN - Sept. 7 Seattle Seahawks 1 p.m.
LOSS - Sept. 14 at Jacksonville Jaguars 1 p.m.
WIN - Sept. 21 Oakland Raiders 1 p.m.
WIN - Sept. 28 at St. Louis Rams 4:05 p.m.
WIN - Oct. 5 at Arizona Cardinals 4:15 p.m.
Oct. 12 Bye
LOSS - Oct. 19 San Diego Chargers 1 p.m.
WIN - Oct. 26 at Miami Dolphins 1 p.m.
WIN - Nov. 2 New York Jets 1 p.m.
LOSS - Nov. 9 at New England Patriots* 1 p.m.
WIN - Nov. 17 (Mon.) Cleveland Browns 8:30 p.m.
WIN - Nov. 23 at Kansas City Chiefs 1 p.m.
WIN - Nov. 30 San Francisco 49ers 1 p.m.
WIN - Dec. 7 Miami Dolphins (at Toronto) 4:05 p.m.
WIN - Dec. 14 at New York Jets 1 p.m.
LOSS - Dec. 21 at Denver Broncos 4:05 p.m.
LOSS - Dec. 28 New England Patriots* 1 p.m
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Vernon Gholston
the guy is a workout wonder with stiff hips. He is definitely too stiff for OLB. As a down DE, the kid has the bull rush and the straight wide rush, but ask him to double move and the hips start to show. Any decent OT in the NFL with enough power to handle his bull rush should shut down Gholston completely. We can only hope he ends up a Jet or Pat.
Excellent speed rusher who needs to be accounted for on every play and has good field presence, locating the ball quickly to fly to it and contain the run … Has the ability to consistently disrupt the backfield, as he has the speed to escape and the strength to overpower offensive tackles off the edge … Plays with the type of effort and emotion that makes a coach comfortable knowing that he will make plays all over the field … Has great flexibility and balance working down the line and changing direction … Has a low center of gravity and strong anchor, making it very rare to see him on the ground … When he is taken off of his feet, he is quick to recover and get back into the action … Has loose hips, good knee bend and balance in his running stride when chasing long distances … Has rare ability to run the field for a player his size and can be sudden in his initial movement
Every analysis I've seen of this kid says just the opposite of what you said (Warroom scouts take above) ... but ok.
I don't want this kid in the AFC East.
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A good buddy of mine who follows PSU football religiously told me he wouldn't be surprised if Connor winds up being a better pro than Poz -- and he loves Poz' game.
War Room scouts have Connor rated as a 3rd or 4th rounder calling him one of the more overrated players in the draft. Another guy whose career merits watching ...
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What is the big knock on him anyhow? I have not been pushing for him but I've seen some hi-lite clips & he looks great. Lots of draft gurus have us taking anyone but. What gives?
I've read several reviews of him fwiw - Sweed's big knock is that he's more athlete than football player, raw with his routes, makes spectacular catches but drops easy ones and a potential boom or bust pick.
I still think Kelly will be the best of the bigs coming out - and with the speed fiasco from last week, a solid choice if available in the 2nd. Kelly was described as having the best hands of this current crop (1 dropped pass over the last 2 years + he catches the majority of his passes over the middle) and he's been called the best blocking receiver EVER (according to WarRoom scouts.) I just think he's a perfect fit for the type of receiver the Bills need.
It really will be interesting to revisit these wideouts in 5 years.
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And if I can reiterate what the Sporting News said about Kelly:
1. He has the best hands of any receiver coming out - dropped 1 pass in the last 2 years.
2. He is fearless going over the middle and has the skills to turn upfield.
3. He is the best blocking receiver their scouts have EVER seen.
In comparison, they said, Sweed is a better athlete than football player - will drop some easy throws. And he is definitely more of a boom or bust pick - if his wrist is well and he checks out, he seems more likely a 2nd round selection and at that slot he would be well worth a shot. To me, if we go wideout in the 1st, I'd be shocked if it isn't Kelly or Thomas. If we don't pick a WR until the 2nd or later , I think the possibilities for a tall, strong wideout are wide open.
if a receiver runs excellent routes, has good burst off the line, and has excellent ball skills - the 40 isn't nearly as important.Housmandzadeh - 4.6
Jerry Rice - 4.6
Larry Fitzgerald - 4.6
Plaxico Burress - never ran it officially (apparently) but was estimated to be a 4.6
basically if Kelly runs anything in the 4.5/4.6 range, he's probably fine - assuming the scouts are satisfied with his game (routes, burst, ball skills) and his health.
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Harvey has already bulked up to 277 and is showing he can maintain the speed and quickness.
If he has - and can still play - I stand corrected. Too many guys gain or lose weight to hit the requisite specs for the combine or pro day. Bottom line is if our personnel guys feel good about him at that weight, he seems a good choice.
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FWIW, looking at a bunch of post-season pre-workout analyses of players is I think a great basis for deciding if a player has the right intangibles and performance history to succeed. To that end, the Sporting News and a couple other online publications detailed some of their best picks and why others are extremely risky.
I really think it comes down to 3 questions and their corollaries:
1. Did you have solid production in school? If not, why not?
2. Can you compete athletically with NFL caliber competition? This is where workouts allow you to compare kids from schools that don't have top-flight competition
3. Do you have the instincts and smarts to play your position? Are you competitive?
CB: With respect to cornerbacks, consensus was that Rogers-Cromartie looked like an average player against mediocre competition on game tape. His rise up the charts coincided with his Senior bowl practices and his workout numbers. Buyer beware. McKelvin and Jenkins seem like more complete and tested players at this position.
DE: While I wouldn't be disappinted in the selection of the 250lb Harvey (the first choice in this poll), he really would have to put on 15-20 pounds to be effective at this level since I don't see him as on OLB. Frankly, Calais, the 6-8 defensive end fom Miami has received comparisons to Julius Peppers. If you buy into the idea that the inept offense at UM this past year affected the play of their D, he may also be worth a look as a potential star at this position
WR: If it comes down to it, I'd rather take Kelly - who has far better hands and is a better blocker than Sweed (who has off-the-field issues and his own wrist injury to make me think he's red flagged on our board). Thomas, from MSU, seems to have a great blend of breakaway speed and size and production - albeit for just 1 year given MSU's coaching flubs the last few years - that I think the Bills consider him if they have doubts about Kelly's knees.
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I'd agree with that except they just had James Hall in who is just as nicked up and equally unproductive save for one year. He's possibly cheaper but the rest of the arguement really doens't work for me. He's the 4th DE, we need what 10-15 good snaps a game?
except that DJ is familiar with both guys and know their work habits and their potential impact on a young club.
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chris brown pretty much ruled it out as a bills' option - I'm thinkin' those "people in Detroit" probably reside in Buffalo now:
DON'T THINK DE EDWARDS IS AN OPTION: The release of Kalimba Edwards got my attention yesterday, but after looking at him further and talking to some people in the know, I don't anticipate him being a free agent target of the Bills. Talking to some people in Detroit he's a great practice player, but it never translates to the game field. He's had a myriad of injuries in his career and lost his starting job to Jared DeVries, a player that produces even though he's not as physically gifted as Edwards. An NFL head coach once told me that being available on Sundays is one of the most important qualities needed to have a long career in the NFL. Granted a lot of that is luck, but a guy with knee, ankle, foot, head and groin injuries in his six-year career is viewed as a risk. Even in a situational pass rushing role I don't think Edwards comes off as anything impressive, since his best sack season was 6.5
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They showed us having interest in Lynch and Poz last year plus a bunch of other folks who we didn't draft. It looks like the list is a lot shorter in terms of what they know this year:
'08
Todd Blythe, WR, Iowa State
Fred Davis, TE, Southern California
Kalvin McRae, RB, Ohio
Martin Rucker, TE, Missouri
'07
Buffalo Bills
Quarterbacks:
Troy Smith, Ohio State
Running Backs:
Marshawn Lynch, California
Fullbacks:
Brian Leonard, Rutgers
Wide Receivers:
Aundrae Allison, East Carolina, Ted Ginn Jr., Ohio State, Anthony Gonzalez, Ohio State, Brandon Myles, West Virginia
Tight Ends:
Scott Chandler, Iowa
Offensive Tackles:
None
Offensive Guards:
Manuel Ramirez, Texas Tech
Centers:
Dustin Fry, Clemson, Ryan Kalil, Southern California
Defensive Ends:
None
Defensive Tackles:
Amobi Okoye, Louisville
Outside Linebackers:
Paul Posluszny, Penn State
Inside Linebackers:
Patrick Willis, Mississippi
Cornerbacks:
Leon Hall, Michigan, Marcus McCauley, Fresno State, Aaron Ross, Texas
Safeties:
None
Kickers/Punters:
None
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To echo the above sentiments, that was some outstanding analysis. Thank you.
One comment with regard to the vertical jump - I do think it reflects explosion for most every position. A LB's potential to go thru a ball carrier as opposed to just tackling him is often times reflected in this number.
Ideally, you want production (stats) and durability (injuries) to be your first pass thru this group. Then the instincts and leadership intangibles get combined with an individual's athleticism to refine that decision. On that basis, I like your thinking - Willis/Poz/Beason all seem like fine choices early. Durant - and lately, Shaw impress me as 3rd round possibilities. Shaw's physical tools and versatility lead me to think he may be better than he's shown thus far if a coaching staff lets him settle into a position.
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The model for this is actually the Jax defense which finished 4th in the league in rush defense, The biggest DT is Henderson at 325 (about 40-50 pounds less than the standard big run plugger like a Big Ted). The other 3 DTs Stroud, Meier and I can't remember who else all weigh in at less than 310 (I think a couple of them have playing weights below 300.
There are many things uncertain about the Bills in this draft, but one of the more certain ones is that we are not going to spend big resources going after a DL player in this draft.
While I agree with your conclusion (no DL - especially 1st day), I couldn't disagree more with your example. Henderson and Stroud are the antithesis of Cover-2 DTs - they're both big and strong and tend to play most downs. They completely choke off any semblance of a running game inside but you definitely wouldn't mistake Henderson for a speedy interior lineman. Chicago and Indy are more the prototypes for our defense and it remains to be seen just how good the interior of our line can be with a healthy McCargo and an experienced Walker. I do know we are woefully short on LB depth right now and expect to see multiple picks at this position.
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Worst (most superficial) analysis ever?
I think those arguments are legitimate, Dean. I'm cautiously optimistic the right side of the OL will be better. But to those who think we paid Walker 25 mil to be a backup - that's nuts. Barring injury, he's the opening day starter at RT. And with regard to his playing other positions, at 6'8", he's way too tall to be a guard - especially for a team whose QB is 6'2".
By the way, best Bob Dobbs avatar... ever
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Based on history I don't think Marv and TM would have talked about Willis so much if they planned on drafting him.
No tipping the hand.
I tend to agree with you .. I do recall one year during Donahoe's regime when Modrak commented on a bunch of guys - including Roscoe Parrish who we ended up picking in the 2nd. As far as the 1st round pick, though, I'm almost thinking we go with Poz now since he wasn't even mentioned. Interesting that the M&M boys hinted at multiple picks at LB though ...
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Maybe; could be a diamond in the rough if he is picked up in the later rounds. I can also see the TE from Delaware State being a Buffalo Bill as well. I'm hoping we with the 1st 3 picks we draft Willis in the 1st, a big projected 1st rnd WR who falls (hopefully Jarret, Rice, or Bowe) and a RB in the 3rd. I think then at other positions if 2nd and 3rd players develop and step their game up we could suprise some folks next year. The fact that we will have some offensive familiarlity next year will be a big plus.
Late round? I've seen several mocks with him going in the 1st - to Indy or even the Pats.
Frankly, he's the only back I'd like in the 2nd round - assuming Lynch and AP are gone. The fact that Modrak spent time extolling his praises makes me think they wouldn't pick him ... almost too obvious.
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This will be the 4th year in a row that we play the Pats after their bye week. I think Belichek having a full 2 weeks to game plan against us is a big reason for our poor record against them the last 4 years.
I don't really think there is some grand conspiracy or anything like that. But it is a little ridiculous that this keeps happening. The odds of that happening in a completely random situation are (2/16)^4 = 1/4096 = .02 %. Come on NFL schedule makers... thanks for the MNF game, but mix up the Pats post bye week opponent for once.
I agree and I shake my head when I see it happen every year but frankly we've been overmatched against them most seasons in the Brady/Belechick era - even the "no bye week" scenarios haven't bode well for us. I think when we become true playoff contenders, I'll let this stuff worry me ... methinks we're still a year or 2 away.
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Here's a link to his status. I wonder if he could be worked into our line-up and if so, what capacity. Would he be a good addition? My guess is that this guy becomes a June 1st casualty. I'm making this post more so to have people keep in mind that June 1st will provide some unique opportunities and we don't have to live and die by the draft.
http://blog.mlive.com/lionsinsider/2007/04..._in_detroi.html
I really liked this kid in college - he seemed like a Keyshawn clone (tall, great hands, strong enough to break jams and finds a way to get open + he didn't have "coachability" issues) which when you think about it - is a perfect possession receiver and exactly what we need. If our front office vets the details and finds his problems in Detroit were due to scheme and not character-related, this is a pickup I would like.
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I just had a thought occur to me. Doesn't the Lions resemble the Redskins is some ways, especially during the draft? They both manage to mangle themselves, even with having great draft slots. This seems to go on year after year.
Sure but people are probably saying that about our Bills over the last decade
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ummm ... they're the Titans?
just responding to your assumption that Houston is new - they have a pretty storied history. It's like saying Cleveland's a young franchise.
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all fine and good, but the real question: do they have the 6th largest fan base? i don't think so. also, they're a young franchise, so all they have to base on in terms of their history is their X number of losing seasons. what is it now, 5? 6? so even texans fans can't complain cause they've never been winners.
ummm ... Oilers?
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Sorry, I didn't bother to read the whole blog. I first saw this snippet on KFFL and when I saw that it came from Mlive I just read the first part of the story. I now see that it was mentioned again later in his blog.
No worries - good find.
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Based on all the ongoing discussions about the draft, I thought this was an interesting article. It discusses value of 1st round picks by position. Also, the idea that the further a position is from the ball, the easier it is to adjust to the NFL.
While I don't condone copying articles in their entirety, I'm less conflicted at pointing to someone who did so at the BB message board.
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The 2 most interesting comments - despite the alarmist headline ... I don't think Detroit's a threat since we're talking multiple trades (and 20 obviously won't cut it to get Willis):
Jeff: How many spots are the Lions looking to move down, ideally? Is it down to 5-7 for Adams or back a little further for Willis?
Tom Kowalski: I think the Lions would prefer to move down no further than No. 6. The consensus is that there are six elite players in the draft and then, after that, it's a pool of really good players. I believe the Lions are hoping Willis slides down the board and I think there's a chance it might happen. Not because of his ability, but because he's a middle linebacker and some teams don't even have that position while other teams have greater needs. The Lions are hoping to jump back up into the first round (after a potential trade down) and grab him about No. 20. It's a longshot, but they don't have a lot of options.
Mike: When dungy took over tampa they went 6-10, the next year they were 10-6... when lovie took over the bears 5-11 to 11-5... even when dungy took over the 6-10 colts they went 10-6 the next year... now i know the Lions aren't going to go 13-3, but how much do these turn arounds display the importance of understanding the 'tampa-2' and how far along do you think the lions players are... what are the chances of the Lions following suit in the 'tampa-two turnaround'
Tom Kowalski: It was interesting to talk to Brian Urlacher the last couple of years because he said they were basically clueless about the defense in the first year and made huge strides in the second year. He also said it takes three years for the players to really "know'' the defense and have it become second nature. But he did say the biggest leap is from the first year to the second. We'll see if the Lions can pull it off.
OFFICIAL: 3pm is here 2008 Draft Thread
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
Unless Bennett falls thru the 2nd and we try to trade up, I like taking a flyer on Cottam in the 4th - you'd be drafting all potential though.