Reddy Freddy
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Posts posted by Reddy Freddy
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Gotta love the eternal optimism of Bills fans
never lose it!The realist in me can see the Bills beating the Falcons up in Toronto as the have the 28th ranked run defense. Their O line is porous, and their best offensive weapon is on IR. Plus the Bills get WR's Stevie & Woods back this week. 5-7
@ Tampa Bay against an improved 3-8 Buc's team that just beat the Lions at Detroit. 5-8
@ Jacksonville against the 2-9 Jags that just beat the Texans at Houston 13-6. Still 6-8
Miami at home, and the Bills play so much better at the Ralph. 7-8
@ New England, and the Bills don't play so well on the road, and against the best team in the AFC 7-9. Which is still better then Gailey, and better then I had previously thought.
"IF" the Bills can fix the run game, give EJ better protection on the road...then 9-7 is an actual possibility.
If you're scenario plays out, then I bet the Bills are at least mathematically alive going into the Pats game, which would be pretty cool for this year's team.
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Because once you sort out things out like head to head games where SOMEONE in that group of 9 has to pick up a win, it's great odds that one of them ends up picking up 3 (or in the winner of the steelers ravens this week, 2) wins down the stretch.
One of the teams in contention for that last playoff spot would have to win 4 of their last 5 games to get to 9-7. The winner of that Steelers-Ravens game will still have to win 3 of their last 4 to get to 9-7. Otherwise, an 8-8 team will make the playoffs.
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Lol. What are you smoking dude? We are 4-7 for a reason. There is absolutely nothing that should make anyone believe we can win three straight games, let alone five. I think 3-2 over the next five is the best we can reasonably hope for, but I expect we'll go 2-3 down the stretch (wins over Jax and Miami).
Well we're favored to win vs. Atlanta. And if we win that, I bet we'll be no worse than a pick' em vs. Tampa. We'll also probably be favored in Jax and at home vs Miami. Sooooo ... there is SOMETHING that should make people believe we can win a few games in a row.
After all these years of turmoil, some of you think the BIlls are gonna run the table? Keep expectations low people! If not, you will be on here saying Marrone should be fired, Bills should draft a QB next year, Ralph must die...AND ON AND ON! Going 3-2 in the next 5 games is good!
Ahh, the constant battle between those who want to dream big and those who are terrified of getting their hopes up for fear of being let down.
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These game will test the Bills' mettle. They need to win them all. 8-8 will not earn a playoff berth. I could see them losing all of these.
However, if the offense can eliminate turnovers and the defense remains tough, we have an excellent chance to get to 9-7 and maybe end the playoff futility!
Based on what? The team currently in the 6th spot is under .500. Why are some people so certain that the 6th seed at the end of the season will be over .500?
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Buffalo wins out...
Pats hold out to lose tonight
Jets lose to the Fins once, or twice to other teams not named MIA
and Patriots lose @ MIA in week 15 and week 16 @ BAL
Then week 17 is for the division title.
I like where your head's at. Let's do this.
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If we beat JAX, it's mathematically impossible for us to win the common games tie-breaker with the Jets. Best we could hope for is that Jets beat the Raiders. In that scenario, Bills and Jets would have identical records against common opponents, and the fourth tie-breaker would be used (assuming that both teams also had the same AFC East record so that second tie-breaker doesn't determine the outcome).
The scenario you outlined (Bills beating Jax and Jets beating Oak) is by far the most likely scenario in my opinion. For that reason, I don't think any tiebreaker would come down to record vs. common opponents.
I played with the playoff machine a little more, and we can in fact win a tiebreaker with the Jets when both teams finish 8-8. The key is that the Bills' one loss has to come vs an NFC team. For instance, I used the power ranking criteria, then gave the Bills wins vs. everyone except Atlanta and the Jets wins vs everyone except Balt, Carolina, and Miami. Both teams finish 8-8, Bills win tiebreaker. So call me crazy, but if we lose to Atlanta or TB (our 2 toughest games remaining except NE in my opinion), I'm still not sticking a fork in us.
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Power rankings as criteria, Bills beat Dolphins, Bills beat Patriots, Jets lose to Dolphins in week 17 = Jets and Bills at 9-7 but we win the tie-breaker.
Sorry, I should have clarified. I mean I can't get the Bills to win a tiebreaker with the Jets when both teams finish 8-8. I feel pretty good about the Bills' chances if they get to 9 wins, but was hoping to find a reasonable path for them to make it with 8 wins. That looks tough unless the Jets tank.
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The main problem I'm having is that I can't get the Bills to win a tiebreaker with the Jets. If that's the case, it wouldn't matter who else we were tied with since divisional ties are broken first. Looks like we'll probably have to win out to make it.
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A few thoughts:
1) I love this thread and eball for creating it, and this is no place for negativity.
2). I think there's a distinct possibility the last wild card gets in at 8-8, although I'll admit this is probably somewhat unlikely. Still, the teams currently in the 6th spot are .500, so what makes people so sure that won't be the case at the end of the season as well? And which of the contending teams do people see as likely to get to 9-7, keeping in mind that for most of them that would mean winning 5 of the last 6 games? Not saying if the Bills get to 8-8 they will get in, but I would not be shocked at all if an 8-8 team makes it.
3) It is probably the case that if we win each of the games that we'll be favored in, then we'll be 8-7 going into the New England game. I believe we'll be favored vs Atlanta. We win that, we'll be favored vs. Tampa and Jax. Win those, we'll be favored vs. Miami. Nothing earth-shattering here - just a different way to think about it. I actually see the Atlanta game as the scariest one of the next 4. As terribly as they've played, that's still a talented team that was almost in the SB last year.
4) If we get to the New England game with a realistic shot of making the playoffs in the final week, I don't care what anyone says, I'm counting that as a playoff game and declaring the end of the playoff drought.
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The Bills beat the Jests and they're one game back of the 6th seed.
They don't have to win out. It's a relative goal not absolute.
A majority of the AFC has 4 wins. And not all these teams are winning out. Head to head is first tie breaker after the division is settled. We have the tie breaker of the Ravens.
They just need to win one more game than the Jests down the stretch. Which is at least 5 probably a win out but that's the situation.
Now will they actually do it based on the performance in the Steelers game. No way.
But the Jests game is a playoff game for them.
If they lose this weekend then even the wildest playoff hopes go out the window.
WE actually get at least one more meaningful game this weekend.
Now what they need in the 2011 draft is a receiver that is open when he is covered.
I like the kid that makes Manzeil look good very week.
Agreed on all points. That last AFC playoff spot is there for the taking, and a mediocre team is going to get it. It's the Jets, a bunch of 4 win teams, and us and the other 3 win teams. Another way to look at it: If we beat the Jets this weekend, none of the contenders for that last AFC playoff spot will have more than 1 win more than the Bills.
The problem isn't that we're too far out of it. As usual, the problem is finding a way to win our games.
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THAT'S ... why they play the games.
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Nine wins will not get us into the playoffs in the AFC this year. Especially not with KC, Denver and SD playing well. We need to get to 10
I'll bet you a Buffalo nickel that the last AFC wild card gets in at 9-7. Not saying that will be us, but a 9-7 team will make the playoffs in the AFC. San Diego is 4-3 and has to play Denver and KC twice each still.
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IF the NFL gods shines a light on Buffalo
8 Sun, Oct 27 @ New Orleans - L
9 Sun, Nov 3 Kansas City - W
10 Sun, Nov 10 @ Pittsburgh - L
11 Sun, Nov 17 New York NYETS - W
12 BYE WEEK
13 Sun, Dec 1 Atlanta - W
14 Sun, Dec 8 @ Tampa Bay - W
15 Sun, Dec 15 @ Jacksonville - W
16 Sun, Dec 22 Miami - W
17 Sun, Dec 29 @ New England - L
My optimistic projection above ... 9 wins is the magic number in my opinion. That at least gives us a solid chance, especially if we beat the Jets and Dolphins. I still think @Pitt will be very tough and Atlanta is still dangerous. If we lose to Atlanta or drop one of the games we'll be favored in (TB, JAX, MIA), then I think we'll need to win the last game of the year to get to 9 wins.
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We have four games until the bye week, then a pretty favorable schedule after that.
If we can split these next four (NO, KC, PITT, NYJ), that would put us in a great position.
I definitely think we can, but I can also see us going win less.
A week 12 bye week is no fun, but going into ours 5-6 (or better, but i'm not holding my breath) would be HUGE.
I think this is exactly right. 2-2 over the next 4 games keeps us alive to get to 9-7 on the season, which I think gives us a chance in the AFC this year. Here's how I look at it:
Regarding the games before the bye, I think we will lose to the Saints and beat the Jets at home. That means we have to take one of the two games home vs. the Chiefs and at the Steelers. Both would be great, but I think that's asking too much with Thad likely still at QB for those games.
That gets us to 5-6 at the bye, hopefully with EJ ready to come back at that point.
Regarding the games after the bye, we should be favored to win at Tampa, at Jax, and home vs Miami. Win those, and you're then at 8 wins. The two other games are Atlanta in Toronto and at New England. Split those and you're at 9 wins.
Difficult? Yes. Impossible? I don't think so.
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Gotta love Bills fans eternal optimism!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p3-eavMSBnk
Buffalo Bills 2-4, PF 136, PA 157
@ Dolphins 3-2
@ New Orleans 5-1
Chiefs 6-0
@ Pittsburgh 1-4 *
Jets 3-3
Falcons 1-4 *
@ Tampa Bay 0-5 *
@ Jacksonville 0-6 *
Dolphins 3-2
@ New England 5-1
If we can steal 2 of the next 3, my mind will wander to the possibility of making the playoffs. That puts us at 4-5 with a decidedly easier stretch of games to follow. I think 9-7 would give us a shot at the last wild card in the AFC this year.
So how do the next 3 games shape up? I'd say we have a 50% chance of winning at Miami, a 10% chance of winning at New Orleans, and a 40% chance of beating KC at home. I'll let the statisticians do the math on what odds that gives us to get to 4-5 ... Roughly 20-25% chance maybe?
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<iframe width="420" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/rU2o1dqLZuw" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
I know a lot of people are gonna disagree with me. but when I watch this tape from what he did against the Steelers #1 defense last year. I see a player who reads the entire field and delivers the ball on time. yes he made a couple of bad reads but overall he made very good decisions with the football. EJ may have a bigger upside than Lewis but Lewis is still young too at only 25, If the offense is more productive with Thad I'd say we ride with him til the end of the season
Wow, it just goes to show that when it comes to QBs, beauty is in the eye of the beholder. I came away from watching this clip thinking he looked terrible. Jittery and inaccurate, especially on deeper throws but even on short ones. Numbers aside, if he looks like this for us we will have one of the 2 or 3 worst starting QBs in the league, which I guess should be expected given his background, but to say he will play at a higher level than EJ is absurd in my opinion. I'll never understand how a guy like this gets a gig in the NFL over someone like Tim Tebow, who has had success whenever he has been a starter at every level of football, but I know I'm in the minority with that opinion to say the least.
All that said, go Thad - prove me wrong!
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I think the pressure is off him for a couple of weeks. There should be no reason to rush EJ back into the line up now. If Lewis bombs, then the Bills would be out of playoff contention. If Lewis does well, then you can also ease EJ back on a slower schedule. I think over the long term, this mid-season break will work to EJ's favor.
What if Lewis is just ok but we somehow manage to stay in contention in the next few weeks?
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Based on what? Turning a starting job into a 3rd string one.
He set the Green Bay Packers all-time record for passing yards and TDs thrown in one game. THAT ALONE makes him more qualified than Thad Lewis and Jeff Tuel.
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Being demoted to 3d string for Oakland still isn't enough evidence that this guy isn't an NFL QB?
Look around you. Do you see a healthy NFL QB ANYWHERE ON THIS TEAM? It's different degrees of non-NFL QB-ness at this point.
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Just released per ESPN....
It pains me to say this, but I'd be in favor of bringing in Flynn. Not to start this week, but as a potential option for next week in case Thad craps the bed. Or even as a better backup option than Tuel. Yep, this is what it has come to: Matt Flynn.
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So what are you trying to convey, cause I'm not getting it?
I think he's implying that people don't usually comment on the fact that, say, Jeff Tuel, is a well-spoken kid.
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You want to be objective and you start off this way?...About a team that is 2-3 but should be at least 3-2 right now if their starting QB only ducked out of bounds a split second sooner...A team that in all 3 losses was ahead or tied in the 4th quarter? And the same team that has been playing without 4 of their top 5 DB's for a good chunk of those 5 games...A total train wreck? Really?
I can be as negative about some aspects of this organization as anyone...I've proven that here hundreds of times...There's a bunch of things they could have, and should have, done better...But to call the Bills a total train wreck? No way...
I agree, although I think it's fair to call the Bills' QB situation a total train wreck at this point. I don't really blame the front office - they acquired Kolb and EJ. Teams don't usually get down to their 3rd option at QB, so it's hard to say they should have expected it. You could make the argument that they should have brought in a more experienced option as soon as Kolb went down, but I'm not sure there were any viable options out there.
One more point: in my opinion Freeman choosing the Vikes illustrates the hurdles that the front office still must overcome when trying to lure talent/coaches to Buffalo. I know the thinking is that Freeman chose the Vikes because he might have a shot to stick there long term, but I gotta believe if a more well-respected franchise like the Niners, for example, had the same QB crisis as the Bills, Freeman would have gone to the Niners. The only thing that will help is winning.
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Pat White? The Bills are officially throwing the season. They should offer ticket refunds.
"I feel my first NFL completion coming on real soon!" -Pat White
Good luck Pat. I'm depressed. Go Bills, I guess.
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I am irrationally heartbroken by this. Pat White? Yikes.
Official Playoff Possibilities Thread
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
Believe it or not, they still have a solid shot if they win out, which I know everyone will say is impossible. Using the espn playoff machine, if you give wins to the teams that rank higher in their power rankings the rest of the season and flip one game (GB over Pitt) and make the Bills win out, the Bills would get in at 8-8. At the very least, if they beat TB, Jax and Miami, they should be mathematically alive going into the final week.
I know people get exasperated about the mere mention of the Bills in the playoffs because they are frustrated with the losses and constantly being let down by the Bills. I really get that. But what you have to understand is that the last wild card spot will likely go to a team with a mediocre record, and with three very winnable games coming up for the Bills, there's still a shot.