Reddy Freddy
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Posts posted by Reddy Freddy
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Hello All,
As diehard Bills fans, my family and I have often quoted an old NFL commercial (we think?) that included a line that went something like “When destiny strikes, and you know it will, you can say you were there all along.” It was in the context of why fans follow their teams and stay loyal through thick and thin.
With the Bills in the middle of a pretty special run, we’ve been trying to find the old commercial, but can’t find it anywhere. Does this commercial ring a bell for anyone else? Any idea where to find it? Thanks very much, and here’s hoping destiny is about to strike!
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7 hours ago, /dev/null said:
Ravens over Bengals
Chargers over Raiders
Jaguars over Titans
Bills over Dolphins
9-7 with a 1st round draft pick in the 17-20 range
Ravens will beat KC in the first round giving the Bills a second first rounder in the 21-24 range
If this is how it plays out, it won’t really be the Bills’ losses to the Jets or Bengals that bother me. It’ll be the Titans’ losses to the 49ers and Rams. If they had won one of those games, we’d get it under the scenario you laid out above (would put Bills, Titans, and Chargers in 3-way tie at 9-7, which Bills would win). The Titans loss to the 49ers in particular hurt - long, last-second FG by the Niners to win it.
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42 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:
I know people think they are gonna lose out but the Titans play much better at home then they do on the road. They've only lost once at home so far this year and I expect them to be competitive with the Rams next week with their season on the line
Agree. I think they have a solid chance vs. Rams.
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On 12/13/2017 at 1:36 PM, Reddy Freddy said:
Scenarios are being discussed in various other threads, but thought it would be good to have them in one place. I'll kick it off with what I think is the likeliest scenario that gets the Bills in:
1) Bills win 2 of their final 3
2) Kansas City beats LA Chargers this weekend
3) Tennessee loses exactly 2 of their final 3, including a loss in week 17 to Jacksonville
One down, two to go ...
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19 hours ago, Tuco said:
Sorry but we don't get in under that scenario. If all that happened the 3 teams would be 9-7. Our head to head over KC would be meaningless since head to head only applies if one team beat the other two or lost to the other two. All 3 would be 9-7 in conference games. Common opponents also wouldn't apply since there won't be the minimum of 4 common opponents between all 3 teams. That goes to strength of victory which KC owns.
If we're going to get into a 3 way with Tennessee (or Baltimore) it needs to be with San Diego. H2H still doesn't apply but then SD would drop out because of their worse conference record. We would then take Tennessee out with the common opponents (all assuming we beat the Phish X2 and Tenn loses to Jags to get to 9-7) or possibly Baltimore with SOV.
Sorry but we DO get in under that scenario. KC at 9-7 wins the division over the Chargers, so the Chiefs are not up against us in wild card scenarios. If you haven't already, I'd encourage you to play with the ESPN playoff machine. It isn't 100% accurate always, but it's been pretty good lately.
6 hours ago, Kmart128 said:1) Bills win 2 of 3
2) Chargers beat KC
3) Tennessee loses out
Either could easily happen with the way 49ers are playing. I'm not even gonna root for a KC Chargers game cause it's impossible to know what Tennessee will do with their 3 remaining games.
Agreed. That Chiefs-Chargers game is tricky, but I think we're in slightly better shape if the Chiefs win.
15 hours ago, Boatdrinks said:Actually SOV is the most likely path into the playoffs for the Bills. Common opponents could doom them. You are correct about this: If BAL loses to CLE AND the Titans defeat JAX OR win any two games the Bills are done. That is a tiebreaker oddity, though an unlikely one as it involves CLE defeating BAL. Assuming that combination of events doesn't occur, there are more scenarios that put the Bills in on SOV than a head to head with KC.
The scenario described WOULD put the Bills in assuming that the OP meant KC defeats LAC and also finishes 9-7. KC would win AFCW by virtue of 2wins over LAC. That would put BUF, LAC, TEN at 9-7 3 way tie which would go to BUF based on SOV tiebreak
Regarding the bolded part above, it actually doesn't matter what the Chiefs do the rest of the way if they beat the Chargers. All that has to happen are the 3 items I listed in my original post. Assuming the Chiefs beat the Chargers, KC either goes 9-7 or 10-6 and wins the division over the Chargers, or they go 8-8, lose the division, and are below us in the standings anyway (assuming Bills win 2 of 3). In either case, we don't end up in a tie for a wild card with the Chiefs.
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Scenarios are being discussed in various other threads, but thought it would be good to have them in one place. I'll kick it off with what I think is the likeliest scenario that gets the Bills in:
1) Bills win 2 of their final 3
2) Kansas City beats LA Chargers this weekend
3) Tennessee loses exactly 2 of their final 3, including a loss in week 17 to Jacksonville
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13 hours ago, MAJBobby said:
No you want Chargers to win that division.
Have tie breakers against KC and Oak not to metion better draft pick got from KC
It's not this straightforward. We have the tiebreakers on KC and Oak if it's just a two-way tie between us and one of them. If there are 3 or more teams, the tiebreakers are different and head-to-head matters less. I think it's actually better for the Bills if KC wins the West at this point because in a multi-team tie at 9-7, they would beat us out and the Chargers would not.
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5 hours ago, TheTruthHurts said:
They have a great shot to be very alive entering week 17 with a win Sunday.
Hopefully the titans lose @sf and home to the Rams.
If the Bills win this Sunday vs Miami, I believe they will be alive entering week 17 no matter what else happens. Tinkering with the various playoff simulators, I can't get a combo where Bills win this week and then have no chance in week 17.
5 hours ago, njodogg said:I will hope for a miracle but realistically the drought will likely extend. I am not sure how it happens but I see us needing to win week 17 to be in. Then classically collapsing. Its sad but we have all seen this happen before. I'll hope for the best but prepare for the worst.
Miracle? If Bills beat Dolphins twice and lose to NE, they make it two-thirds of the time, according to the NYT playoff simulator. As it stands today, they have about a 1-in-4 chance. Hardly a miracle.
3 hours ago, ShadyBillsFan said:Buffalo has to win out the wway the schedule looks for all of their competition.
This is so amazingly wrong. They make it at 9-7 65% of the time, according to the NYT simulator, assuming the wins come against Miami. Bills MIGHT need to win out, but it's probable they will only need to get to 9-7.
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10 minutes ago, zman44 said:
A Ravens loss to the Browns actually wouldn't help the Bills much at all. In order for the Bills to hold the tiebreaker over the Ravens they need their loss to come against a common opponent, Colts or Bengals. A Browns loss bringing them to 9-7 gives them the edge over the Bills, 5-0 to 4-1 in common opponent games.
Thanks for explaining this. I noticed on the NYT playoff simulator that our odds actually IMPROVE if the Ravens beat the Browns next week. I'm still not sure why it would actually help us if the Ravens beat the Browns, but this explains why a Browns win doesn't do much for us.
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51 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
1-2 doesn't help us. We lose 9-7 tiebreaks to Baltimore and Tennessee. We need to win and for them to lose out. It is that simple. No need for lots of complicated scenario playing folks.
This is not true.
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21 minutes ago, Patrick_Duffy said:
Yes, I was looking at this game yesterday coming up between Ravens and Browns in Cleveland and I predict that the Browns get their 1st and only win of the season. I expect the Steelers to bust em up a little bit and soften them up just right for Browns to get their 1st win at home.
So this is weird, but the NYT playoff machine actually has us with a better shot at the playoffs if the Browns beat the Ravens next week. I can’t imagine why this would be true.
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1 hour ago, PABillsfan23 said:
It would be a minor miracle if the Bills got in the playoffs even at 9-7. Need so many things to happen.
This is totally false. At 9-7, we’d be better than 50-50 to make it according to the NYT playoff simulator.
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I know..I belive its over as much as everyone else...BUT....just for fun...do this.
Go here: http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine
Select "Power Rankings" as the default W/L.
Set the Bills to beat the Jets (We are favored for all other games)
Then...make the Steelers Lose to either the Ravens or Browns.
This results in the bills in the Playoffs. As horrible as it seems right now, if the bills win out, I think they have a 50/50 shot at making the playoffs. Thats a big IF, but not big enough for me to give up hope...yet...
The New York Times playoff simulator has the Bills making it about 23% of the time if they win out.
Odd as it sounds, I think we have a decent chance of winning out, and I'm not too concerned about passing the Jets and Raiders if that happens. The problem is that KC is almost certainly not going to lose its last 3 games and since Pitt won today it is now very difficult to catch them. Seems very possible that they could lose to Den next week, but it's asking a lot to have either Bal or Cle beat them in the last 2 weeks of the season.
The bottom line is that if the Bills and Broncos win next week, things get interesting again.
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My expectation is that we finish 9-7, with a loss to either Philly or Washington. Likely miss the playoffs in that scenario, but there's a chance that Pittsburgh struggles against Cincy and Denver.
I agree. In this scenario, we actually have a little better than 50-50 shot to make it, according to the NYT Playoff Simulator.
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The Steelers have two tough games coming up but it's asking a lot to think they'll drop both of them given the way their offense is playing.
Agreed, but don't discount those two division games to close the season. Granted the Steelers are much better than the Ravens and Browns this year, but those division games have a way of being close no matter the records.
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Who do you see Bills beating rest of way?
@Pats
@Chiefs
Texans
@Eagles
@Redskins
Dallas
Jets
Here's how I think about it:
1) Split the next two road games vs. Pats and Chiefs
2) Beat the Texans at home
3) Split the two road games vs. Eagles and Skins
4) Then either split the two home games to close the season vs. Cowboys and Jets (if you think 9 wins gets us in) or sweep those last two games (if you think it'll take 10 wins).
I happen to think it's very likely 9 wins will do it, especially if those 9 include a second win vs. the Jets. Assuming we sweep the Jets and end the season at 9-7, the Jets would have to go 5-1 in their other 6 games to finish ahead of us. Unlikely.
Then you're looking at hoping 9 wins (or tiebreakers) will put us ahead of either the Steelers OR Raiders. I think it will. There's always the chance another team like the Chiefs catches fire, but that seems unlikely.
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What's the delay - get him to sign already!
My theory on this: The Bills and Clay could have an understanding that a deal will happen. But the Bills have waited to make their offer. All the while, Miami gets nervous and signs other players, including Cameron, thus making it much harder for them to match the Bills' offer. Genius! Or perhaps I'm reading too much into it and he's heading back to Miami to sign with them haha.
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I'm sure a lot of Bills fans don't want him, but I would guess that RGIII is being referred to as the QB option not being talked about much.
I actually think we could make a move for Cousins. I know he wasn't great last year, but I like the way he plays and just have a totally uninformed hunch the Bills do too. Trade for Cousins and then either sign a FA (I'd go for Hoyer or Locker, personally) or draft a QB in the middle rounds.
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If the Bengals, Ravens, and Steelers all win next week we are out.
I'm not sure why you guys think we have the tie-breaker on Ravens. We do not. If they finish 10-6 they will have us on tie-breaker #3, best win% vs common opponents. They will be 3-2 while we are 2-3 vs Mia, Cle, Hou, and SD.
Mark, you are correct. I was blindly following the results shown by the ESPN playoff machine, but it does not take into account record vs. common opponents. Bummer.
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yeah....that's exactly what i did. The reason it matters is the strength of victory tiebreaker. Go ahead and fill it in the way we said then mess around with different combinations of chicago, minnesota, green bay, detroit, miami, jets, houston and jacksonville. Watch what happens. Depending on the outcomes it changes that last tiebreaker slightly, it also matters how you have the rest of week 16 set. It's not neat the way you're describing my friend.
I'm not sure how you're setting it, but I simply chose the default setting of power rankings. Then I made week 16 your "doomsday" scenario, with Pittsburgh, Cincy, San Diego and Baltimore all winning (along with the Bills winning of course). Then in week 17 I give the Bills the win, and Balt, San Diego, and Cincy all losses. In this scenario the Bills make the playoffs, regardless of the outcome of the Jax game, the GB game, or any other game.
Sorry if this was mentioned elsewhere, but...
If the Bills win next week at OAK, is there any way they can still be eliminated from the playoffs? Just wondering if a win next week ensures that the finale in NE will carry some meaning.
I have not seen this officially reported/confirmed anywhere, but according to my (rather obsessive) tinkering with the ESPN playoff machine, if the Bills beat the Raiders then they will go into week 17 alive and kickin'.
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You are correct, I think but it's more than just what you said. If all the teams I listed win in week 16 and what you said happens in week 17 Green Bay and Jacksonville must also win in week 17 for us to hold the tie breaker. So technically not mathematically eliminated, just mathematically really really small.
Nope. My friend, just google espn playoff machine and play with a little. Green Bay and Jax do not need to win in week 17. I wouldn't waste too much time looking at conference records, strength of schedule, etc. Let espn do it for you, and correctly at that!
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I think if Pittsburgh, Cincy, Baltimore and San Diego all win we're toast.
This is incorrect. Even if the above teams win, the Bills are still alive going into week 17 as long as they beat Oakland. Just confirmed it using the playoff machine.
In this scenario, Bills get in if they win and the
Browns, Steelers and Chiefs also win in week 17.
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If KC beats Pittsburgh....and Baltimore beats Houston....then buffalo is eliminated ( assuming no ties) before they snap the ball at OAK.
Why? KC/SD winner is assured of 10 wins and Baltimore has 10 wins, and PIT/CIN winner is assured of 10 wins
Djp, I think you corrected this later in the thread, but this is not accurate. I'm fact, I cannot come up with a scenario where the Bills win next week and are still eliminated. There could be one, but
I haven't found it yet. If anyone isn't familiar with it, the ESPN playoff machine is very helpful in determining who beats whom in tiebreakers and why.
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#Bills win zero tiebreakers. To make playoffs, must win 2 and get 3 of following 5 teams to NOT win 10: CIN PIT BAL KC SD
This is not accurate. There is at least one scenario where we beat out Baltimore if we both finish with 10 wins. The playoff machine is great for proving/disproving stuff like this.
Help finding old NFL commercial: “When destiny strikes ...”
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
Love all of these - thanks for sharing. I’ve spent more time than I care to admit looking for the video mentioned in my original post. It’s hard to find!
As a side note, one of my other favorite inspirational Bills clips is Marv reciting the Sir Andrew poem (Fight on, a little I’m hurt but not yet slain ...). That one is all over YouTube. Great stuff!