Jump to content

1B4IDie

Community Member
  • Posts

    5,818
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Posts posted by 1B4IDie

  1. http://www.nfluk.com/events/regent-street.html

     

    The NFL street party on Saturday, October 24.

    Additionally, having done it already a few times...if you have only one day to sightsee...I highly recommend you use the hop on, hopoff double decker bus. You pay one price for 24 hours and they have stops at every must see location. You can get off for a bit andthen get back on another bus. They come every 15 mins. This is the one I liked the best...www.theoriginaltour.com.

    That original tour looks like a great idea.

  2. While I think Luck has been crowned a little prematurely, I think that if football had an EWA (Estimate Wins Added) stat, Luck would be top 6 in that category. Without Luck, the Colts probably barely split with the Jags and Titans.

    This is true.

    Luck isn't the problem.

     

    The GM that gave up on Hughes and traded for Trent Richardson is the problem.

     

    Luck makes the rest of that crap team look great. The GM has to sift through the team and see who is a piece of **** and who is quality.

     

    Luck needs some quality around him. That defense is a joke.

  3. How do you explain Spiller's history of generating quite impressive yards per carry prior to his poor use this past season?

     

    The obvious attempt to explain this would be to claim that he had high ypc but few carries, but the fact he has carried the ball only a few times, but prior to the broken collarbone which limited him last year, Spiller carried the ball over 200 times the previous 2 seasons and even racked up over 1200 yds in his best season.

     

    In the real world Spiller has demonstrated open field running ability such as in his kickoff return work and racked up some good receiving stats in college.

     

    Is Spiller great

     

    No.

     

    However, is Spiller as you said one of the worst RBs ever drafted by the Bills.

     

    No!

     

    The reality of the situation as clearly indicated by his stats says your assessment is simply wrong.

     

    Right now Spiller enters an RB market which is gonna be soft for him and the Bills likely will be able to resign him cheaply.

     

    The Bills should NOT pay a ton for CJ, but I doubt they will have to.

     

    Spiller seems like he can be a good resigning by the Bills at a reasonable price.

    You're praising him for being a kick returner and Receiver.

    Running Backs - Block, Follow Blocks, and continue to move the ball forward after initial contact.

    Spiller is terrible at all of that. He is one of the worst Running Backs judged by running back skills that the Bills have ever drafted.

  4. Won't disagree. However, the fact is, outliers are calculated in every running back's stats. I didn't hear anybody this year saying, hey, if you throw out DeMarco Murray's fifteen 20+ yard runs, he only averaged 3.8 YPC rather than 4.7 YPC. It is what it is. And it is not just running backs. How about QBs, should we deduct those few 50+ yard passes, WR YAC, drops by WRs, etc., from their passing stats to more accurately assess them? Probably, that is why there are more advanced analyses by PFF, Football Outsiders, Pro Football Reference, etc. That is not what I was doing. I was simply responding to a poster who wanted to know what Spiller's overall stats were when running in 3 WR sets versus 2 WR or less sets.

    I think you can compare Standard Deviation of YPC.

    The real world effect is other RBs with get you into 2nd and 5 more often.

    Where Spiller gets you in 2nd and 7 more often and every once in awhile hits a triple

  5.  

     

    Spiller doesn't have a fumbling issue at all. (Fumbled on 2% of all touches in his career (Fred is at 1.5%))

    Not every decent running back is a decent blocker.

    Most of his yards during his best seasons were between the tackles.

    Season.

    And running a draw between the tackles in a spread formation isn't the same as lining up and following blocks and finding holes between the tackles.

    Spiller is very replaceable.

     

     

    When whole numbers hurt, use percentages

    Look at the league leaders in fumbles and fumbles lost in his one good season.

  6. two seasons ago he was the 2nd best runner in football. He won us games. He averaged 6 freakin yards a carry. Teams were setting up their entire gameplan around the guy.

     

    1700 all purpose yards and 8td's behind a mediocre O line. The last time he touched the ball he went for 50+.

     

    Dont judge him by what Hackett did with him. And remember PFF graded our run blocking as the worst in the NFL last year. Dead last. (nice job fixing that doug and dumber)

    We won 6 games.

     

    Spiller doesn't know how to block, follow blocks or hold on to the ball.

     

    He could be replaced so easily.

     

    He is a nice guy that is true. My mailman is nice a guy, I don't want him playing RB for the Bills. Although if he can follow blocks and fall forward after contact without fumbling he could be an upgrade over Spiller.

    2012: In 3 WR sets - 101 carries for 6.9 YPC; Less than 3 WR sets - 60 carries for 5.5 YPC (62% of his carries in 3 WR sets)

    2013: In 3 WR sets - 63 carries for 5.3 YPC; Less than 3 WR sets - 128 carries for 5.5 YPC (32% of his carries in 3 WR sets)

    2014: In 3 WR sets - 36 carries for 6.4 YPC; Less than 3 WR sets - 36 carries for 1.4 YPC (50% of his carries in 3 WR sets)

     

    Interestingly, running up the middle this year was the weakest part of the Bills running game (particularly in 2 TE sets), which is not surprising, given the play of the guards. Spiller averaged less than 2 YPC running up the middle and about 5 YPC outside the guards, yet, 30% of his runs were up the middle in 2 TE sets.

     

    Another interesting point, Spiller's YPC up the middle drastically improves in spread formations and was the case in 2012. 2013, and 2014. In fact, Spiller ran up the middle in almost 40% (82 carries) of the plays in 2012. However, most of that was out of 3 WR sets and he averaged 6.5 YPC - the highest average in the NFL up the middle in 2012.

    That makes sense, spread em out and let Spiller pin ball around a Nickle or Dime defense. Because Spiller can't follow a block.

     

    Spread em out is pretty much the opposite of what Roman did in San Fran.

  7. Huh regarding your first point?

     

    No he didn't. I suppose you are trying to be cute and argue market value is what someone is willing to pay. Pegula paid $1.4 billion, so that is FMV, right?

     

    Well, the key here is that no one, literally no one else, was willing to pay within several hundred million of that price.

     

    I'm not sure that's FMV.

     

    I mean if I am sitting at Christie's and bidding on a 1962 Ferrari 250 GTO and all other bidders drop out at $28 million, I can then say "$35 million!" and watch everyone in the room gasp in surprise, but that doesn't really make $35 million the FMV of the car.

     

    It is $28 million or whatever price bidding was at when the last competitor dropped out of the bidding.

    that is not historically Acurate.
  8.  

    Spiller is much better than you give him credit for. He was, for a time, excellent. Nearly unstoppable. Obviously, that isn't sustainable for him and he does have problems blocking and making something out of nothing. But if there is space and you can get him rolling and he's healthy, he's very dangerous. Not to mention, his full potential in the passing game has yet to be realized but he is capable of putting up numbers there too.

     

    If you can keep Spiller you do. He's a fantastic talent who you draft high. You don't need to overpay but you can't just let him go without a competitive offer.

     

    Square peg. Round hole. As much as you want it to fit, as hard as you try, you just cannot make his style work in a system unfit for his ability.

    Do you really want to watch Spiller between the tackles again next year?

     

    I actually liked him better as a slot Receiver when Chan was Ina pinch for a WR.

    I will give you that he has great hands.

     

    Can't block, follow a block, or hold on to the ball, but can catch.

  9. The early consensus is Ryan/Roman will be run first and ground & pound offense. Spiller's injury history should be a concern not only for the Bills but any team. He just can't stay healthy and he is a risky signing because of that. He is an explosive player and has great skills but .......

    True except the skills part.

     

    He is a track star that hasn't learned the craft of RB in the same meeting room as one of the craftiest RBs in NFL History.

  10. I don't think money is an issue with the new ownership. I think they will sign whomever they can, as long as it makes cap sense. I see us signing Hughes, Spikes, Searcy (unless Rex brings in his safety from NY), and I think they will extend Dareus.

     

    The guy spent about 400 million over market value just to get the keys to the Dodge. He will scratch out some major bank to put greatness on the field.

     

    I hope he doesn't go crazy like Snyder and throw good money after bad, like Haynesworth.

    1.) He paid market value for the Bills.

    2.) There is a salary cap in the NFL.

     

  11. Spiller is one of the worst RBs the Bills have ever drafted. He doesn't know how to block, follow a block or hold on to the ball. He doesn't know how to fall forward after contact and that is after playing with one of the best yards after contact RBs in NFL history.

     

    Just, No.

     

    We can find some UDFA RB that can dance in the hole and fumble to replace Spiller.

  12. This is my take too.

    The best long play for Schwartz is stay in Buffalo for another year with this beast roster, Swap strategies with Rexy then lineup a HC interview in 2016.

    Jumping to a DC gig for the Gints or Deadskins like delays his chance to be a HC again because now he is a 1 year stop on his resume. Which can be explained away but it still may make some owners/GMs uneasy.

    That is if Rexy can keep his fingers out of Schwartz' snack jar.

     

    Dude he is a football coach not an accountant. No GM will care he stayed 1 year given a new Head Coach was brought in who is a defensive expert who also brought in his previous DC. I want him to stay cause changing something so dominant to a scheme that we may not have the players for sounds like little upside but potentially big downside.

    Incorrect. If anything the 1 year stop will hurt him more than an accountant.

  13. chances are, Schwartz would love to take a raise and - as KTD points out - collaborate with the son of the coach who schemed up the defenses that he, Fisher, Greggo, and countless others were weaned on in the 90's.. other than a HC gig, how much better does it get for a football coach. this talk of philosophical differences is bs - they have more that joins them, than seperates them.

     

    chances are, Schwartz would love to take a raise and - as KTD points out - collaborate with the son of the coach who schemed up the defenses that he, Fisher, Greggo, and countless others were weaned on in the 90's.. other than a HC gig, how much better does it get for a football coach. this talk of philosophical differences is bs - they have more that joins them, than seperates them.Well said.
    This is my take too. The best long play for Schwartz is stay in Buffalo for another year with this beast roster, Swap strategies with Rexy then lineup a HC interview in 2016. Jumping to a DC gig for the Gints or Deadskins like delays his chance to be a HC again because now he is a 1 year stop on his resume. Which can be explained away but it still may make some owners/GMs uneasy. That is if Rexy can keep his fingers out of Schwartz' snack jar.
  14.  

     

    Greg Roman goes to Buffalo, ending his term as the most egregiously scapegoated 49ers assistant in years: ... bit.ly/1C9CTEO

     

    Greg Roman goes to Buffalo, ending his term as the most egregiously scapegoated 49ers assistant in years

     

     

    Hmmmmm. "Even right tackle Anthony Davis bizarrely assumed all that and was angry at Roman for screwing up the 49ers’ offensive focus."

    So do we believe a blogger, or someone actually on the offense? :)

    The point in the article, is does Harbaugh seem like the type of Type B personality that is just going to let his OC railroad him into an offensive strategy he doesn't want?

     

    Which is a very astute observation and does diffuse some of the blame that is piled on Roman for the 9ers 2014 collapse.

×
×
  • Create New...