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BuffaloBorn1960

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    Luntz Analysis as of 4:00PM

    in Politics, Polls, and Pundits

    Posted

    Luntz thinks Kerry is going to win.  Turnout overall has been as much about economic security as about national security vote. Kerry is winning economic voters 4 to 1. (Bush wins on national security vote.) Kerry could be headed to 310 or 320 electoral vote.  But if Bush carries Fla. or Ohio, Bush can still win. (Networks aren't likely to make a call early because of tight races in Fla. and Ohio.) But . . .

     

    Way too close to call/BUT leaning Kerry by 1 percent in Fla. and Ohio

     

    Pa.: 54 percent for Kerry

     

    Wisc: 3 point lead for Kerry

     

    Iowa.: 1 point lead for Kerry (Bush supposed to win)

     

    NM: Kerry plus 2

     

    Nev: Bush plus 1

     

    NH: Kerry by 3

     

    NJ: 8 points for Kerry

     

    Colo: Bush plus 2

     

    Mich: Kerry plus 4

     

    When all is said and done: "Kerry's people must be feeling very confident."  Election not over. But based on initial data, Luntz's educated judgment is that Kerry is headed to victory. Unless something happens with late voting.  Right now, Kerry is doing about 2 points better in states where expected to be closer.

     

    Looks like economy security more important than Bush knew.

     

    Senate: Looks like GOP picks up 3. Dems pick up 1, for net up 2 for GOP Thune over Daschle by 4 points. Likely enough to sustain Indian reservations numbers coming in later for Daschle.

     

    GOP picking up N.C. and S.C.

     

    Bunning in Ky.

     

    Oklahoma goes GOP (Coburn)

     

    Plus 3 for GOP.

     

    Castor in Fla. is looking good.

     

    Salazar up in Colo.

    97564[/snapback]

    Or maybe they are trying to suppress the vote by trying to insuiate that the spread is insurmountable.... These spreads are not as big as Gore had in 2000...

     

    What say we wait until the voting is done and the votes are counted....

    Round Two Of Exit Polls

    in Politics, Polls, and Pundits

    Posted

    This Round comes from slate.  GRAIN OF SALT ONCE AGAIN.

    Ohio

    Kerry 50

    Bush 49

     

    FLA

    Kerry 50

    Bush 49

     

    PA

    Kerry 54

    Bush 45

     

    WI

    Kerry 51

    Bush 46

     

    MN

    Kerry 58

    Bush 40

     

    NV

    Bush 50

    Kerry 48

     

    NM

    Kerry 50

    Bush 48

     

    NC

    Bush 51

    Kerry 49

     

    CO

    Bush 53

    Kerry 46

     

    More warnings:

    EXIT POLLS, NOT ACTUAL RESULTS.

    TAKE AS SUCH!

    97423[/snapback]

    link please

    So the Mayor of Philly says it was a hoax

    in Politics, Polls, and Pundits

    Posted

    Kerry hasn't been president yet. That is why we don't know what he will do as President. If you say you know how he will govern, and what he will do about taxes and the war on terror and with a divided congress and about social security you are totally full of schitt. You have no idea what he will do. You had no idea what George Bush would do before he became President either. It's impossible to know with ANY degree of certainty about any candidate from any party, especially in the world the way it is today, with its myriad of unknowables.

     

    I think you have been pretty clear, too. You would vote for the Republican candidate in that hypothetical. But that is just my opinion. It is entirely within the realm of possibility that I am wrong about that, and you are so rightoeus and above it all that you wouldnt vote Republican if you didnt know exactly what he would do in the White House instead of Gore. But I doubt it.  :devil:

    97314[/snapback]

    The fact that noone knows what Kerry will do is scary... I have a strong idea of what he would do based on his abysmal record in the Senate for the last 20 years.

     

    Kerry has a track record of saying what it takes to be elected. He voting record contradicts half of what he says....

     

    We had a very good idea of what GWB would do based on his limited time as governor of Texas.. Seems he continued to do those things he said he would do..

     

    I have voted for democrats, idependendants and republicans in my life for many different offices.... I have voted predominately for republicans for president as I have believed they best represented my views. Bush was a better candidate than Gore and I am glad I voted for GWB then.... Thank God Gore was not President when 911 happened.. Bush was and is the right guy for this time,... even staunch democrats like Ed Koch believes this ..... and he doesn't agree with most of what GWB does but he agrees with him on the primary reason he should be president.... the war on terror.... every other issue is meaningless if we don't get thta right...

     

    Koch has said....

     

    ""However, you are misinformed on my position as to why I support President Bush for reelection. I support him because of the Bush Doctrine, "we will go after the terrorists and the countries that harbor them." He has demonstrated that he means it by invading Afghanistan and Iraq, both threats to their regions and to the U.S. I do not believe that the Democratic Party, which is now dominated by those who preferred Governor Dean for president, but decided he could not win, has the stomach to take on worldwide terrorism. Indeed, a New York Times-CBS poll of the delegates at the Boston Convention demonstrated their opposition to John Kerry's position which is not to get out of Iraq now. It is the party activists who the candidate has to rely on to get elected and whose positions generally prevail.

    "I have held public office for 23 years. I was elected five times as Congressman and three times as Mayor with super majorities after the first election for each office. New Yorkers trusted my insights and common sense, and I believe they still do. The Islamic terrorists, in the words of Lee Hamilton, "want to kill us," and there are hundreds of millions of them. I want a President who is willing to go after them before they have the chance to kill us.

    "There is nothing wrong with American Jews, concerned for the safety of all Americans, to be grateful that President Bush supports the State of Israel when European states in fear of terrorism capitulate to the demands of the terrorists and are hostile to Israel."

     

    http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2...11/145903.shtml

    So the Mayor of Philly says it was a hoax

    in Politics, Polls, and Pundits

    Posted

    I am not voting anyone but Bush, I just understand it. I think Kerry will make a good President. I think he's run a shoddy campaign at times, and says stupid things at times, and is a political opportunist when he doesnt need to be because he is smart, and I would prefer Joe Biden, and perhaps one or two others, but I have no problem with Kerry as a President as of now. If he makes global errors of judgment I will change my mind. I don't see that happening.

     

    I just want you to say, honestly, in public, right here, that you would NOT vote for the GOP candidate in this example if you absolutely hated Gore and your vote could be the decider.

    97248[/snapback]

    One last time.....

     

    What is it about... "I continue to vote for someone who represents my interests... sometimes that person doesn't win... but I never vote for someone who I don't know what they will do just because he is running against someone I don't like... Thats just stupid!"... that you don't understand?

     

    I think you have issues to deal with... earlier you said..

     

    "We don't know what Kerry is going to do. We do know what Bush is going to do. A lot of people hate the way the country is going, so it is "anyone but Bush". Remember, I said in the example it is your opinion that those things have been wrong, please don't respond that Bush didn't do these things. "

     

    So by your own words you are voting for someone who you don't know what they are going to do? That's smart.... Don't try to project your inadequaties on me.. I think I have been pretty clear on what I said..

    So the Mayor of Philly says it was a hoax

    in Politics, Polls, and Pundits

    Posted

    So in other words, you would NOT vote for the GOP candidate in this election and would sit back and do nothing but accept that Al Gore was re-elected, that your taxes were raised, that Saddam was terrorizing the U.S., that liberals were running the Supreme Court, that government was expanding and gay marriage was being promoted by the President you weren't opposing with your vote. Hmm... I don't know you well, but that non-vote and appearance that all is well in the political world is kind of surprising.

    97219[/snapback]

    Once again...

     

    What is it about... "I continue to vote for someone who represents my interests... sometimes that person doesn't win... but I never vote for someone who I don't know what they will do just because he is running against someone I don't like... Thats just stupid!"... that you don't understand?

     

    who said anything about a non-vote? You do understand the theory of checks and balance don't you? There are Local, State and Federal offices at stake that act to "Check & Balance" anything the president could do and visa versa.... No president has carte blanche.. I rather cast my vote to support someone than to simply vote for anyone but... thats a slippery slope..

     

    Have you ever thought for one second that your vote for anybody but Bush could lead to severe consequencies for the U.S.?

    So the Mayor of Philly says it was a hoax

    in Politics, Polls, and Pundits

    Posted

    Thanks for completely ignoring the question. It doesn't matter one bit if you believe that Bush is doing great, or isn't doing all those things I listed, about 50% of the population think he's doing abysmal and those are the people that you and me are referring to. Only those people. The "anyone but Bush" crowd. You're complaining that their position of "Anyone but Bush" is stupid and irrational, but I am assuming by your complete refusal to answer the hypothetical that you would feel the same way if fortunes were reversed. If not, please explain why you would vote for Gore's re-election or not vote at all and help allow Gore to be re-elected. I didnt use those examples because I necessarily believe them to be true, I used them because they seemed to be the inverse of the dilemma that "anyone but Bush" voters are feeling.

    97200[/snapback]

    You could also argue that maybe this is what happened to Germany in the 1930's and we all know how that turned out...

    So the Mayor of Philly says it was a hoax

    in Politics, Polls, and Pundits

    Posted

    Thanks for completely ignoring the question. It doesn't matter one bit if you believe that Bush is doing great, or isn't doing all those things I listed, about 50% of the population think he's doing abysmal and those are the people that you and me are referring to. Only those people. The "anyone but Bush" crowd. You're complaining that their position of "Anyone but Bush" is stupid and irrational, but I am assuming by your complete refusal to answer the hypothetical that you would feel the same way if fortunes were reversed. If not, please explain why you would vote for Gore's re-election or not vote at all and help allow Gore to be re-elected. I didnt use those examples because I necessarily believe them to be true, I used them because they seemed to be the inverse of the dilemma that "anyone but Bush" voters are feeling.

    97200[/snapback]

    What is it about... "I continue to vote for someone who represents my interests... sometimes that person doesn't win... but I never vote for someone who I don't know what they will do just because he is running against someone I don't like... Thats just stupid!"... that you don't understand?

    So the Mayor of Philly says it was a hoax

    in Politics, Polls, and Pundits

    Posted

    Put it this way. If Al Gore was the President that won in 2000. And he did nothing about the war on terror. And he raised your taxes like crazy. And he put several liberals on the Supreme Court. And he did everything he could to increase government spending and lobbied for gay marriage and tried his best to be friends with France and Germany and let Saddam Hussein threaten us with weapons and yet did nothing about it. AND you didnt like the Republican candidate at all that was nominated against him. And didnt know exactly what that Republican was going to do if he was in office. You're telling me you would vote for Gore and wouldnt have the opinion of "Anyone but Gore"?

    97106[/snapback]

    Thank God we don't live in that fantasy..

     

    GWB did something about the war on terror..

    GWB lowered my taxes..

    GWB has not had an opportunity to appoint a new member to Supreme Court...

    GWB believes that Marriage is between a man and a woman...so do I.. not against some sort of civil union,,,,but not the same as marriage..

    GWB does not try to be best friends with those whose interest are against the US interest... He was elected to represent the US... not corrupt government overseas.

     

    I continue to vote for someone who represents my interests... sometimes that person doesn't win... but I never vote for someone who I don't know what they will do just because he is running against someone I don't like... Thats just stupid!

     

    Fortunately I have always been able to vote for someone based on thier record... Problem with Kerry is he only has a record of saying whatever he he thinks people want to hear... all sides of all issues... has no real principles except to blame america first.... He is the perfect Monday morning QB.. can tell you all the things that went wrong but can offer any suggestions how to fix things.... oh I forgot He has a PLAN!!

     

    What was that Plan again?

     

    I think everyone should vote for someone they believe in...

    So the Mayor of Philly says it was a hoax

    in Politics, Polls, and Pundits

    Posted

    We don't know what Kerry is going to do. We do know what Bush is going to do. A lot of people hate the way the country is going, so it is "anyone but Bush". Remember, I said in the example it is your opinion that those things have been wrong, please don't respond that Bush didn't do these things.

    97065[/snapback]

    Well Now I've heard everything...

     

    The problem with your argument is that 80-90% of Bush voters strongly support thier candidate and believe the country is on the right path.... and yes we do know what Bush will do... thats why we are voting for him

     

    Kerry voters are about 40% behind their candidate... the rest are anti-bush.... You don't know what Kerry will do and yet you blindly follow him? Those who don't know were they are going will never get there..

     

    You blame Bush for everything and say he lies.... but when your candidate say the same things you overlook what he said...

     

    Ahh but ignorance is bliss isn't it?

    So the Mayor of Philly says it was a hoax

    in Politics, Polls, and Pundits

    Posted

    CBS is definitely lefty, but ABC? They are the only real fair and balanced network going. They are owned by a bunch of right wingers. How could you group them with CBS?

    96964[/snapback]

    Have you watched Peter Jennings? Remember what he said before president addressed the nation after 911.. "no matter what you believe... he is still our president"

     

    Stephanopolis (sp)? Clinton's advisor....

     

    Have your heard about ABC's political director, Mark Halperin and his instruction to be more critical of the President?

     

    Fair & Balanced? Keep drinking the Kool-aid...

     

    Outside of George Will.....

    I Was A Voter Intimidation Victim Today

    in Politics, Polls, and Pundits

    Posted

    :D  :D I always wondered if it was a job requirement that one be in one's dotage. Most of those lovely old women are old enough to remember the days BEFORE they had the right to vote.  So maybe that's why they are there...bless their hearts.

    96855[/snapback]

    So since Women won the right to vote over 84 years ago, the average age of those who remember not being able to vote would be 102 (84+18)..

     

    What precint to you vote in? Must have excellent health care!

    The Markets look like they know something

    in Politics, Polls, and Pundits

    Posted

    It was.  Falling oil prices...falling because the excessive risk priced into them has been becoming progressively less excessive in the eyes of futures traders who forsee a Kerry victory. 

     

    At least, that's the way the logic is going.  In reality...the market does whatever the !@#$ it wants, often with little or no reason.

    96875[/snapback]

    Or... it could be market forces at work with supply catching up witth demand.

    So the Mayor of Philly says it was a hoax

    in Politics, Polls, and Pundits

    Posted

    I wish "reporters" like Drudge had to run headlines on their web sites when they were wrong informing their viewers that they screwed up, again.  Maybe we would have fewer people posting his every crap story here within seconds of it appearing.

    96756[/snapback]

    Yeah like CBS & ABC are so quick to retract their known lies and distortion...

     

    Rather & Jennings what jokes...

    Go Vote

    in Politics, Polls, and Pundits

    Posted

    My daughter was off today for parent teacher conference..

     

    Took her to the polls were I make my usual joke to the poll worker about returning in a couple of hours to vote again.... mentioned we lived in Chicago for a while and that is how we voted..... my daughter asked if it was like the fast pass system at disney world... we you get to cut in line...LOL

     

    Anyway brought her into the booth and showed her how we vote.... she asked why I didn't vote straight across... it was a little confusing to her but she figured it out when she aligned the columns.... too bad they can't figure that out in FLA...LOL

     

    When we left my daughter said "see you in a few hours to the poll workers" as she let out a little giggle.... God was I proud....

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