[Trade 1 for a young proven player]

Cars get a bit cheaper after they've been broken in.  Good, young, proven veterans get more expensive, both as free agents and trade targets.

[Ty Dunne: Motor can lift Bills to super bowl]

A very encouraging article, why doesn't Buffalo hire a guy like that to coach the running backs?

[Beane's toughest draft yet. The conundrum; there aren't 30 players with a 1st round grade in this draft]

I get the practice of putting a draft placement grade on players, but while there might be some year to year variation, I'm guessing that it would be a rare year when more than 32 players got a first round grade, and an overwhelming majority of drafts have fewer than 30 players with a first round grade.  

 

There are other factors that go into the decision to trade out of the round or not.  The most obvious is the question of who is willing to trade with you.  I would guess that most of the time you don't want to drop below the top third of the second round  Who in that group is willing to trade, and what will they give you for the #30 spot?   Team need and the value of available players by position is a huge factor.  I imagine individual preference weighs on that factor.  For instance, most would agree that WR is not a huge need for the Bills this year.  Obviously Jaylen Waddle, Jamar Chase, Devonta Smith and Rashod Bateman are going to be gone at 30.  Kadarius Toney may or may not be available, and Elijah Moore probably will be available.  If he is, Beane has to decide how much of a value he is.  Buffalo could conceivably have to part ways with Beasley next season because of cap issues and Beasley's age.  Either Toney or Moore could fill Beasley's role, and both have the speed to be a legit deep threat like John Brown.  Plus they are tough enough to fill Isaiah McKenzie's gadget player role.  That adds up to quite a bit of value I would not be dismayed if Buffalo ended up with either one of them at #30.  Finally, there is the Round 1 contract consideration.  When you draft a player in round 1, you've got him for 4 years at a value price, (if he's any good) plus a bonus fifth year if you want him at a higher price that a team may still consider to be a bargain.  If you're rolling the dice on a player with issues, maybe you don't care about that fifth year, buy maybe you would consider a player with a little lower ceiling  (and draft position ranking) if he's got a high floor, and you want the stability the fifth year option gives you.  Carlos Basham might be an example.  I would guess he's not currently regarded as a first round value, but at the same time a lot of people consider him to be a safe pick who will have a nice NFL career.

 

I think it is very possible the Bills trade out of the #30 spot, either up 5-8 spots, or down to the top third of the second round, but if they stand pat at #30, I'm not going to worry to much about the value they're getting.

[Late Speed at WR: The Anthony Schwartz Intrigue, and a Reasoned Approach to a Lesser-Known Alternative]

Marquez Stevenson ran a 4.45 40 at his pro day. Schwartz ran a 4.26.  In what universe is that comparable?  4.45 is fast enough to be a legit deep threat, but if Stevenson aspires to be a special receiver in the NFL, 4.45 speed is not what is getting him there.

[Your day 2 crush?]

If the Bills don't get their edge rusher in round 1, I'm intrigued by Payton Turner.

[Broncos acquire QB Teddy Bridgewater for 6th round pick]

Somewhere, sometime, Denver fans are going to hear John Elway say, "We have to QBs capable of starting."  Somewhere someone is reported as saying, "If yout have 2 starting QBs, you don't have any.

 

Of course the main effect for the Bills is that it removes one of the mail obstacles to New England trading up to pick a QB.

[Bucky Brooks Suggests Ravens Should Pick Fields]

12 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Because Fields is a better passer would be the reasoning. He is a lesser athlete (compared to Lamar almost every NFL player is) but he can still do some of those things while offering higher upside as a passer. I don't think it will happen but it isn't mad. Lamar's contract negotiations will be fascinating. His regular season record is insanely good but his ceiling as a passer gives the team limitations. When he is costing more money where is the line? I genuinely don't know. 

That's always been my opinion of Lamar Jackson.  He's got a unique athletic profile and skill set as a QB.  If you've got an OC who can figure out how to use him (and Greg Roman is perfect for him) he is going to be successful, but opposing DCs will figure out what he can't do, and good teams will be able to contain his strengths to an extent.  Initially, he was wildly successful because no defense has has ever seen a QB like Jackson.  He's going to continue to have some success because he's still unique.  It is always going to be tough to prepare for "unique," but the best opponents are going to manage it.

[Call your shot: Who will the Bills pick in the 1st round?]

I'll go with Jayson Oweh.

[Ty Dunne: Motor can lift Bills to super bowl]

Devon Singletary's decline seems to have more to do with a change in the Bills' running strategy than anything else.  In 2019, they used a power blocking scheme and ran the ball between tackles a lot.  In 2020, they did more zone blocking and tried to run the ball outside more.  I don't know if the Bills are going to keep trying to run like they did last season or go back to more of a power blocking run game.  If they want to have one back who can do everything, they should draft Ettienne.  Harris would be a clear upgrade over what Buffalo has, a power back who is a weapon in the short passing game, but I don't think anyone would describe him as elusive or fast.

[Who might the Bills take on Thursday? NFL Rumors gives a clue]

The most recent rumor I've hear (on the radio) has Pittsburgh picking Najee Harris at #24,  I can't imagine Buffalo will trade up for him.  I know that Asante Samuel has appeared as a Bills pick in a lot of mocks, but I can't see it.  He's strong for his size, but like so many Bills CBs he's undersized to play onon the outside.  He's mostly seen as a slot cornerback who could play some safety.  That still leaves Buffalo with Levi Wallace on the outside, unless the undersized Dane Jackson or the undersized Samuel wins the starting job.  That still leaves Buffalo vulnerable to big physical receivers.  I think Samuel is faster than what Buffalo has and might not get beat deep as much, but he would leave me a big frustrated as a fan.  Phillips and Oweh seem fairly obvious, though there are risks with both of them.  You're not going to be able to draft Chase Young or Myles Garrett at #30.

[3 Year Anniv: "If Josh Allen succeeds, the Bills will have outsmarted basically all regular humans and the entirety of math itself"]

Stats have value, but there are other factors as well.  It's not just "heart" whatever that is.  It's also opportunity.  For whatever reason, Josh Allen did not have the opportunity to participate in a big time high school program.  That led to him not getting a real opportunity to go to a 4 year college with a chance to start.  Instead, he went to a small time community college.  Even that did not get him a scholarship offer from a division 1 school.  He always had to settle for leftovers.  A kid can react to the lack of opportunity by giving up, or he can decide he's going to outwork everybody else and prove them wrong.  Fortunately, Allen had the raw talent to succeed and personality wise, he turned out to be the latter, a guy who is going to outwork and out compete everybody else, and prove them wrong.  

 

I'm sure the Bills scouting staff crunched all the numbers, including pro day performance, but fortunately they dug deeper and talked to Josh Allen's coaches along the way.  Of course, they interviewed Allen as well.  So I'm going to give some credit to Brandon Beane.  It's about analytics, but not just about analytics.  He made a decision based on his belief that the intangibles he and the scouting staff sensed in Allen from all the extra work they did, that he was better than his stats.

 

It should be noted that the Bills were not the only team impressed with Allen.  You may recall that the Arizona Cardinals were heavily rumored to be planning to take Josh Allen when Buffalo traded up to ***** him out from under their noses.  Nobody can prove that, but it's reasonably plausible.

[McShay- Bills trying to move up above 23 for Etienne]

1 hour ago, Nextmanup said:

Beane is a lot smarter than moving UP to craft a RB in the first round! 

 

At least I sure as hell hope he is! 

 

 

If he could actually craft a QB, he's smarter than any of us, regardless of the round.  Drafting a running back is another story.

[billspro’s official mock draft]

I like the top tree picks.  Not so sure about the second trade.  Beane has gotten lots of value from his late round picks.

[Who are the 49er's going to take at 3]

I buy the reasoning that you don't draft the player with the lower ceiling at #3.  Virtually everybody thinks Mac Jones is the player with the lower ceiling.  I suspect the choice will be Trey Lance.

[BOLD draft predictions!]

10 hours ago, thunderingsquid said:

I'm high on Sermon in the 3rd this Sunday.

Preach it, brother, but I think the draft starts Thursday and round 3 will be conducted with round 2 on Friday.  As for Trey Sermon, not a fan.

[Are sports’ drafts fair to the players?]

There are always going to be limits.  The player's initial choice is to attempt to play professionally or not.  To me it's not so different from the person who takes a job with a big corporation, then has to  locate wherever the corporation wants him to, or my own situation.  I'm a retired pastor in a denomination that uses an appointment system.  For 40 years I lived where I was appointed.  I lived in 5 different locations over the years.  Most of the time, I didn't have a choice about the house I lived in.  One difference is they have a contract that may pay them anywhere from 7 times to 800 times what I made per year at the end of my career.  I won't even tell you what I made when I started out in 1979.  Anyway, I'm not that sympathetic toward professional ball players over the draft issue.  If there was no draft, I can't imagine how we could have viable sports leagues.  If we didn't, these guys would be playing semi-pro ball at best.

[Justin Fields confirms epilepsy rumor]

On 4/21/2021 at 2:03 PM, Captain Hindsight said:

Perhaps someone with more medical background can explain epilepsy better, but it seems to havent had much affect on him as an elite athlete. Sounds like doctors arent too concerned 

My adopted daughter developed symptoms of epilepsy as a result of a car accident.. Sometimes it can be congenital .  Sometimes it can be the result of a brain injury.  I imagine there are cases where an illness could cause it.  I suppose there are times when the cause is unknown.  There are variations in the type of seizures one can experience.  40 years ago I knew a fellow with severe epilepsy.  It was not controlled and he typically had grand mal seizures.  Forty years may have seen the development of better medications, but there is great variation in epilepsy.  Some cases are easily manageable, some are very difficult.  At the time, there was nothing that could control Fred's epilepsy.  Because of it he could not drive or hold a job.  If Fields' case is stable and well controlled, I don't see any reason why it would mess up his chances for a solid career.