BigAl2526
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Posts posted by BigAl2526
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13 hours ago, TrentEdwardsCheckDownOn4th said:
The bills only traded back because they thought their guy would be available at 2.01.
That tells me they want to take a guy that most people didn't mock in the first round. So who could that be ?
Is it possible the bills loved a guy like Ricky Pearsall, and thought no way someone would take him in the first?
What if the bills shot themselves in the foot?
Unless the bills trade down again, why risk losing out on your guy just to gain a better draft position in round 3?
It tells me they didn't think the two Xaviers were decent values at the spots where they would have had to take them. Beane is very cognizant of value, especially in the first round. I won't know until this evening if they think there is a WR worthy of the 33rd spot in the draft.
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The jury is still out for me. I think the Bills need to come out of the draft with a quality receiver that has some speed and athleticism. I don't know what their thought process was regarding Brian Thomas Jr., Xavier Worthy and Xavier Legette. I don't know if they tried to trade up for Thomas and failed to get a fair deal or they didn't think he represented a good value where they would have had to move. My assumption is they didn't like the value of the two Xaviers where they would have had to take them. Obviously, other teams had different opinions. Only time will tell who's right, and only time will tell if Beane's strategy will pan out in getting a quality receiver at a place that represents good value.
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I would love to ask Beane if there were any players he would have tried to trade up for if they fell sufficiently, or if perhaps they actually did try to swing a trade and couldn't get a deal done. As far as Worthy and Legette are concerned, I think it is obvious Beane didn't think they represented good value to the Bills at the spots they traded away. I honestly don't know who they will draft at 33, or if Beane will trade down again.
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8 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:
It would have been negligent to trade numerous assets to get one the WRs considering the roster reboot we’re doing.
Any objective outsider looking at our draft capital plus needs before tonight would have said “yea you guys got a tough hill to climb.”
Now we have 3 top 100 picks. 11 total.
We still have our first and 2 seconds next year.
After Thomas went I felt all options in trade backs were on the table and honestly, necessary. And we’re still in a position to get the WR we want. My guess is it’s Franklin or Mitchell.
If the Bills want Franklin, I could see them trying to trade down again.
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2 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:
I know Mitchell is the obvious projection, but I think we'll draft McConkey.
I'm not certain about anything. McConkey may be a more complete receiver at this point, but the Bills may feel Mitchell has more upside due to his athleticism. Then again, there is the nagging question of Mitchell's health long term with the alleged type 1 diabetes. Troy Franklin is likely too much of a reach. There are some who still think of Keon Coleman as a 2nd round value, but I just can't get past that 4.61 40. Then the other day some pundit made the comparison between Kelvin Benjamin and Keon Coleman. Gag! I think the Bills feel the need for speed with KC as a perennial rival (and having just drafted Worthy), Not to mention Miami wanting to dethrone Buffalo in the AFC East with their speed.
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It's not a huge deal, but any time a player projected by most to go later than the Bills' pick (Michael Penix to the Falcons) that is good for the Bills.
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When teams drive up the market like this, the effect in the near term on the draft could be that other teams needing receiver help will be more likely to look for help in the draft than among the remaining free agents or trade acquisitions who would be looking for new deals. That would mean it is more important for the Bills to get a WR early rather than hoping for a quality guy to slip through almost two full rounds.
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I make no special plans except to watch the draft as I am able. As it happens, my wife and I are committed to attend a Thursday night Bible Study, and I likely won't be able to start watching the draft until about 8:30. I don't mind missing the first five to ten picks since I don't see the Bills trading up that high. When I get home I'll settle down with my TV and computer. I have certain websites that I rely on during the draft: NFL.com of course for their draft tracker and scouting reports, NFL Draft Buzz for their scouting reports (a little different perspective), and drafttek.com which creates repeated computer generated 7 round mocks after every draft pick. As the league moves deeper into the draft, Drafttek has a tougher time keeping up and the new mocks may only happen a few times each round, but they try the best that they can.
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Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State - Cardinals
Rome Odunze, Washington - Chargers
Ladd McConkey, Georgia - Chiefs
Brian Thomas Jr., LSU - Jaquars
Xavier Worthy Texas- Dolphins
Bonus Bills pick - Legette (after trading out of Round 1
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My approach to the draft is, I think, a bit different from that of most fans. I have prospective draft picks I am most interested in as Bills picks. This draft is no different. Brian Thomas Jr dropping would be nice, or perhaps a modest trade up to get him. If the Bills don't trade up and Thomas is not available at 28, which is the most likely outcome for the Bills, my preference is for a trade down, no lower than 12 spots. At that point, I would pick in order of preference: Mitchell, Legette, McConkey, Franklin or Worthy. However, my reaction to the Bills picking any one of those at 28 would not be, "Oh, the Bills made a terrible mistake." Instead, it would be, "OK we'll see how this pans out." I figure Beane and the Bills know what they're doing in this whole process. They are more knowledgeable than me and have access to far more information than me. They aren't infallible, they are far less fallible than I am when it comes to evaluating draft talent.
As far as the receivers Buffalo will have to choose from, every one, including Thomas has downside risk to be aware of. Thomas has some questions about his effort and is route running in not well developed. Legette has questions about his experience, lets deep throws into his body and may struggle some in zone coverage. McConkey wasn't as productive in college as he might have been with a pretty high floor and perhaps not as high of a ceiling as some others, struggles some with his catch to run transition and with contested catches. Mitchell may be a type one diabetic and that he was a #2 in college. He struggles with press coverage, like McConkey he's inconsistent transition from pass catching to running and struggles with contested catches. He's also not much of a blocker, something Buffalo values in its receivers. Worthy is small and very light and could be vulnerable to injury in the rough and tumble NFL. He sometimes struggles with zone coverage and his production dropped in 2023 despite being targeted more. The lack of size also means he can get knocked off his route at the LOS. Franklin may be taller, but he's even skinnier than Worthy. He's had a tendency to turn and run before securing the catch, thus leading to drops. That's not to say the Bills should avoid all of them, just that you're taking something of a chance with anybody they will have the opportunity to draft.
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Ruff might get the Sabres into the playoffs, if that is their goal. I don't see him taking them on a deep playoff run.
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8 hours ago, HereComesTheReignAgain said:
In a sea of crappy mock drafts, this guy manages to stand out. That was a steaming pile of hot garbage.
Yeah, that's my opinion too. Marshawn Kneeland is a big time reach in round one. Roman Wilson is a good receiver and a reasonable value in round 2, but a near clone of Shakir and Samuel. The Bills are left with hoping Shorter, Hollins or Shavers can be a big time athletic receiver with size on the outside. The later rounds are OK I guess, except that Cody Schrader still doesn't get them a big change of pace running back who can give them tough yards in a short yardage situation. It's the first two rounds that make this mock a disaster for Buffalo.
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The chances of me being on my feet after the first quarter are just about nil. The chances of me completing a pass, just about the same.
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I think a modest trade up is entirely possible for the Bills to snag Brian Thomas Jr. If They don't do that because Thomas gets drafted earlier than Beane is hoping for, I think the odds of Buffalo standing pat go down a bit because of health questions surrounding Adonai Mitchell (Type 1 diabetes report). It's not impossible that they stay at #28 and draft Mitchell or some other WR if the Bills are higher on that player than many of the pundits out there think If the Bills don't trade up, stand pat at #28 and draft a receiver other than Mitchel, I think the guy they get is Legette.
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2 minutes ago, ndirish1978 said:
I have Legette above both Mitchell and Thomas, who are simply part of tier 2.
Fair enough. I think that is a minority view, but everything is opinion at this point and you're just as entitled to yours as is everybody else.
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1 hour ago, mannc said:
They’ll only drop back into the second if there are a few guys they’d be more or less equally happy with. If Beane really likes Leggette, he’ll take him at 28…he won’t risk losing him to KC or some other team. That’s not the way he operates.
My assumption is that Brian Thomas Jr. and Adonai Mitchell comprise a second tier of receivers after Harrison, Odunze and Nabers. The concern over Adonai Mitchell allegedly having Type 1 diabetes puts a bit of a question mark on that ranking. Who knows how teams will treat that. Anyway, McConkey, Worthy, Legette and possibly Franklin and Coleman comprise a third tier. It's possible Beane values Legette high enough to take him at 28. He is very cognizant of value regardless of draft position though. He might reach a little bit for a player he really likes at a position of need, but I don't think he'll reach too far.
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On 4/17/2024 at 5:43 PM, Brandon said:
That's my expectation as well. I think Legette probably goes in the top 40.
And I also agree about pick 60. It seems like it'll be kind of a dead spot in this draft for matching the Bills needs with value.
The Bills are more likely to trade down from 28 and take Legette, than to get him at 60. I really don't expect them to trade up from 60 to do it.
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4 hours ago, Dan Darragh said:
Lots more good theologians on this board than guys who actually understand football.
Having a little knowledge about the Bible and the Judeo/Christian religion does not preclude also having some knowledge about football and the Bills.
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8 hours ago, pkwwjd said:
Adonai is actually not the formal name of God that the Jewish faith refuses to say, out of respect for His name. Adonai is actually the name for the Lord that the Jewish faith substitutes for the name revealed to Moses at the burning bush. What we have in the book of Exodus is simply the Hebrew letters that transliterate as YHWH (often anglicized as Yahweh, but we literally aren't sure how it would have been pronounced as the vowel points have been lost to time). Another word, Jehovah, was the rough mixing of the consonants from YHWH (JHVH) and the vowels from Adonai. Jehovah is not a "real" word but has been used as the "name" of the Lord.
Y'all are all good using Adonai.
I agree with most of this. I think "Jehovah" comes from the fact that "yhwh" got translated to Greek in the Septuagint and then from Greek to English. the intermediate language resulted in its corruption, but enough people use it that I don't think you can dismiss it as a word. After all it is frequent usage that results in and arrangement of letters gaining recognition as a word.
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10 hours ago, Dan Darragh said:
Having been raised in the Jewish faith this name never fails to crack me up. "Adonai" is Hebrew for "God" and religious Jews are so careful of observing the commandment of not taking God's name in vain, they actually won't say this word unless engaged in formal prayer. In other cases they substitute the word Hashem which means "the name."
I can't wait until he catches a Hail Mary pass.
I believe that Adonai actually means "lord." In the Old Testament/Jewish scriptures there are instances where "lord" is used in reference to persons. The word for God in Hebrew is "El" (singular) or "Elohim" (plural). Then there is the name for God in Hebrew, which is sometimes called the "tetragram" because it consists of four consonants. Jews do not say it out of reverence. Most English translations of the Old Testament do not use the English transliteration of the name of God out of deference to Jewish tradition. Instead it is rendered in translations as "LORD" all in upper case letters to distinguish it from "Adonai."
8 hours ago, boyst said:i honestly don't even know how to pronounce it.
is it Ad-on-ay? Adon-aye? A-done-yay? A-done-knee-ya? A-aron?
Number two is probably closest.
9 hours ago, fasteddie said:Raised in the Catholic faith, I was always surprised by the Latin American baseball players named Jesus, as in one of the Alou brothers. Just another one of those head scratchers seen throughout the years.
Actually, the name "Joshua" has the same roots and means the same thing - "God is salvation."
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I don't think it is a total crap shoot. There is a significant element of chance in every round, but the level of chance increases as teams go deeper into the draft. Still, there is no guarantee that even the first overall pick will be a successful player for the team that drafts him.
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4 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:
Does this guy know something? 98 would be a 3rd round pick.
If four WRs are gone by the middle of the first round, I would find it tempting. You don't pull the trigger, of course until the Steelers are on the clock.
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Comfortable? Not at all. I like Shakir and I think he can be productive. Same thing with Samuel. It's a stretch at this point to think that either one is a true #2 receiver, to say nothing of a #1 receiver. One or the other might grow into that role, but it's not a sure thing. Outside of Harrison, Nabers and Odunze, the other top receivers in the draft don't look like they are ready to step into a #1 role at the start. They all have upside and some of them may grow into a #1 receiver role in the pros, but not likely to happen in 2023. The Bills can shoot a wad of draft capital to trade up high enough to pick Nabers or Odunze tor they can draft someone lower and hope they get enough production in 2023 to remain a playoff contender and hopefully develop into a true #1. Then they also need to draft an additional guy to compete for depth and hopefully show potential as a #2. The 2023 season was at least a mild disappointment from the standpoint of production from their # 1 and 2 receivers, but at least the season started with reasonable expectations. Buffalo is going to start 2024 with more questions than answers. They need some surprises to the upside.
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At this point, I don't think Von Miller has earned much in the way of a right to be listened to. That's not to say a trade up is impossible. I know a few have talked about a major trade up to draft Nabers or Odunze. Probably more have suggested Buffalo could do a more modest trade up to ensure they have a chance to draft either Thomas or Mitchell. Either one is possible. I'm more wary of giving up the kind of draft capital it would cost for Odunze or Nabers, but then what do I know. There's also the possibility of a trade down. Like other fans, I've seen draft projections where Thomas and Mitchell are off the board before Buffalo picks. The WRs available to Buffalo at 28 are Ladd McConkey, Xavier Worthy, Xavier Legette, Keon Coleman and Troy Franklin. I know there are some who think one of those 5 guys is worthy of being picked at #28, but that's not an especially common view. If the Bills don't trade up, I'd be surprised if they think anybody left at other positions carry first round value. If the Bills don't think that anyone in that next group of WRs is worthy of #28, then a trade down could be a no brainer.
Round 2, Pick 33: WR Keon Coleman, Florida State
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
He was not the guy I might have hoped for. That said, I'll wait and see. His 40 time was pedestrian at the combine, and I think the Bills need some speed on the outside, but he was terrific (and fast) in the drills. I'd still like to see the Bills try and find a second receiver in the draft with a bit of size and speed. Devontez Walker is still on the board I think.