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Precision

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Posts posted by Precision

  1. 9 hours ago, Tiberius said:

    Excellent 

     

    A new report has found that rising fuel prices caused by the war in Ukraine have helped speed up the move toward renewable energy in some E.U. nations.

    Hundreds died in '21 when power went out in Texas.  Europe will be in much worse shape this winter as they will be rationing natural gas that's used for power generation and heat.  I don't see anything "Excellent" about that.

     

    Former Obama energy adviser Jason Bordoff and Harvard University professor Meghan O'Sullivan wrote a piece in the Economist in late March warning that the world was on the cusp of "what may become the worst energy crisis since the 1970s."

     

    The world may be careening toward a 1970s-style energy crisis -- or worse

     

     

    • Agree 1
  2. 2 hours ago, All_Pro_Bills said:

    Fuel cells have been around for a few decades and several companies have been tinkering around with the technology with some niche products.  The concept itself was demonstrated in the 1800's.  Combine hydrogen and oxygen and you get combustion and water as output.  Fuel cells can be very efficient which provides a solution to many needs. 

    But unless you have a lot of "free" hydrogen floating around and available the problem is the energy to produce hydrogen is most often greater than the amount of energy the recombination of hydrogen and oxygen produce.  And most of the current hydrogen production processes depend on other energy inputs to produce the gas.  Its the financial equivalent of spending a dollar to earn 80 cents.  I just can't imagine the technology scaling up to the necessary level unless the idea of using nuclear fission or fusion reactors to produce the gas could be scaled up.  Or some yet to be discovered technology.   

     

     

    Good analysis.  Also most fuel cell designs employ an expensive anode (made from a noble metal like platinum) or a membrane which degrades over time.  Either implementation results in a product that is not competitive.

     

    We have an air source heat pump heating our pool and will install a vertical loop geothermal/heat pump in the next few years as it's getting more difficult for me to harvest wood.  Of all the renewable technologies, IMO the heat pumps are the best bang for the buck dependent on the heat source it is replacing.  We looked at installing solar and the payback in NH is 10 years, assuming they don't eventually add the property value increase of solar panels to our already high property taxes.   

     

    And yes, I am an Electrical Engineer!

    😀

       

    • Thank you (+1) 1
  3. Those racist Democrats are at it again.  I didn't know you were allowed to pull the race card on members of your own party when you don't get what you want.

     

    NY Democrats accusing one another of racism after gerrymander debacle

     

    "Bronx Rep. Ritchie Torres accused fellow Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney — who is also chairman of the House Democratic Congressional Committee — of racism following reports that allies of the Hudson Valley Democrat suggested that incumbent black Rep. Mondaire Jones is not ideologically suited to represent his newly redrawn district."

     

    • Thank you (+1) 1
  4. My brother and sister-in-law sold their previous house and have been looking since January.  He's a schoolteacher and she's a college professor, they live in the Southern Tier.  They can't find a decent home in their price range.  I'm not sure they are top earners but with their combined income I would have thought they could find something.

     

    Median home selling price in NH for April 2022.......$440K.  

    11 hours ago, PetermansRedemption said:

    Why would anyone ever take this type of loan? It’s literally gambling. IMO it isn’t a very good gamble either. I think it’s far more likely interest rates keep rising than going back to 3%. I’d rather lock in at 5%, know what I have, and then refinance if rates drop. Come to think of it, why wouldn’t people just do that versus taking an ARM mortgage? 

    WNY area is no better. At least it wasn’t last year. 20-25% over ask was the norm for any decent property. 

     

  5. Ahhh.....the Big Short part 2!  I wonder if they have restarted the NINJA loans?  Love the scene in the strip club and the stripper that has multiple properties.

     

    One of my reports and his girlfriend are looking for a house in MA/NH area.  Combined income of $160K and looking at $500K houses.  They both graduated last spring so I can't believe they a lot to put down and could even be approved for such a large sum with their limited credit history.

     

    Side note, houses here are going for nearly 20% over ask!

     

     

  6. https://apnews.com/article/elections-new-york-presidential-election-2020-tom-reed-b7173b0292b11725a207c499dedfe11f

     

    Too bad.  I met him in Canisteo long ago and had the pleasure to see him again in NH at No Labels (aka Problem Solvers) events.  Nice guy, articulate and personable.  Honestly felt like he cared about his district and constituents.

     

    This doesn't excuse his behavior.  He made poor decisions, and this is the price he has to pay for them.  I expect there are probably more legal troubles to rightfully come as well. 

    • Thank you (+1) 1
  7. 1 hour ago, T master said:

     

    I truly don't give much of a s**t about this & this persons sexual orientation !! That should have absolutely nothing to do with he hiring of this person for this position unless of course you are pandering for votes !!

     

    So now when we all go to hire on to a job is this going to be a question on the application ? And if so do you care ?

     

    HEY EVERY ONE GUESS WHAT IM HETEROSEXUAL DO YOU REALLY GIVE 2 S**TS ??

     

    Who or what perverted SOB give a s**t about sexual preference when looking to hire someone for a job what should be the focus is how freaking good they can do their job weather you are straight or gay shouldn't have anything to do with it or is a gay person better for the job or if you are straight does that mean your better suited for the position ? WTF ??


    By letting this be the head line of the hiring it only does one thing it serves to get more votes from the others that are of the same mind set that is the only reason why this has any traction .

     

    So this is nothing but another truly politically motivated move & if by some chance any one believes that the politicians actually give a rat's a** about this or anyones sexual orientation for anything more than getting votes your as foolish as they think you need to be for their advancement in their political career .

    I would think on the job application they would be more concerned with grammar and spelling.

  8. Here's some additional background......

     

    Karine Jean-Pierre

     

    At 44 I'm pretty sure I have underwear older than her.  Her experience is nothing of note, just someone preparing for a career in government service.  Education is a bit weak, NYIT and a MPA (didn't know they offered day courses in something so useless) from Columbia.

     

     

    Off topic question/comment.  A couple years ago we stopped interviewing anyone from Ivy league schools.  Candidates we hired from these institutions were so highly motivated they used our company purely as a steppingstone and had little dedication to their immediate work/project.  They were so self-absorbed that we referred to them as MEllennials.  We've had better results with RPI, WPI, NU, UCONN, UNH, UML, type grads.

     

    Anyone else have similar experience?

  9. 2 hours ago, Irv said:

    This is hilarious.   What's next?  Gay, quadriplegic, blind, black, autistic, transgender, little person who uses a support pig, for Chief-of-Staff?  Where do they find these people?  Oh.  And she/it's French.  How soon do we surrender? 

     

    What a mess!

    I've always felt that wheelchair bound Native Americans with one eye and who practiced bestiality have been way underrepresented in prominent government positions.  How many do you know of?  My point exactly! 

     

    The entire necrophilia community is dying (or their partners have) for more representation! 

     

    How about people with 2 heads?  I haven't seen a single one (or is it two) at a White House briefing!

  10. 1 hour ago, SoCal Deek said:

    She's always seemed nice enough when I've watched her....but how in the world is she LGBTQ?  Isn't she actually ONE of those things? Is there are reason she wouldn't be described as one of them?

    She was Principal Deputy Press Secretary so I suppose she was next in line.  I don't know her background but am curious if she was the best person for the position or just ticked off cater to special interest boxes.

    42 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:


    has to be better than the current one… assuming that had something to do with the hire as well after appearance and romantic life of course. 

    Not a fan of Psaki either.  She was always visibly shaken and defensive when she got a difficult question she couldn't answer.  Really liked her "leaks are fine now" answer from the other day.  No surprise that was the best she could do.

    • Haha (+1) 1
  11. 7 hours ago, PetermansRedemption said:

    Excellent analysis, I appreciate the response. Always love to hear perspectives from people with knowledge of the subject. 

    Thanks, not sure I'm knowledgeable but '08 left an indelible mark on me.  Save my response and please harass me to no end if my fall '23 guess is wrong!

     

    Here's my scary story from the '08 crash....

     

    I was at one of my daughter's friend's birthday parties.  It was the typical thing where the kids bowl, the moms gossip and the dads drink beer. 

     

    Well, the dads were hanging out and a one of them, Steve rushes in late with his wife and daughter.  Of course, we have to give him a hard time and he says he was working all day, on a Saturday.  Well Steve works for the propane company so that just opens up more jokes because really why would a propane guy be working late on a Saturday?   

     

    Steve gets all serious and quiet and says "it's the banks".  Now we're really laughing because well at least it wasn't aliens!  Steve is even more serious and says "I'm not supposed to say this but I'm working overtime because the banks are winterizing the houses they're stuck with.  They can't sell them so they're being winterized and I'm working more hours to shut off the propane to the houses."  We're all like well that's great Steve but he interrupts us and said something to the effect "I'm talking about hundreds of properties, hundreds.  More than that in MA.  The whole real estate market, the whole economy is done.  You need to get ready so you can protect your families."  At this point Steve is visible upset, like almost in tears upset.  There wasn't any more joking in the dad corner after that.

     

    When I got home my wife and I talked about what happened.  The crash was in the news but we live in Southern NH so felt safe and there wasn't much reporting regarding New England.  It was a difficult conversation because the outcome was that we cancelled a vacation and made cutbacks elsewhere.  Tried to hoard cash (I even thought about buying MRE's) but you can only do so much so fast.   Steve was right, the crash came to New England albeit less than other places.  In retrospect the crash did not impact us as our jobs were secure so we were ok.  

     

    Even now when I relive that day, replay that conversation in my head it bothers me.

    • Shocked 1
  12. 2 hours ago, PetermansRedemption said:

    I’m not sure I agree here. IMO housing is a supply problem that is going to take years to correct. Interest rates rising might push some out of the market, but your not going to see a crash like 2008, or really any crash at all. In fact, what higher interest rates will do is keep people in their houses longer. Someone with a 3% interest rate probably isn’t in a hurry to buy a new house at 5-6%.  
     

    I really don’t think many people look at their home equity and go “screw it, might as well stop paying and go back to renting”. That seems to be what your crash theory is based upon, people willingly walking away. 2008 was different, people were getting loans they couldn’t afford. They had no choice but to walk away. 
     

    You will see some slight cooling in the market for sure. You’ll only get a couple bidders instead of ten bidders. You might get asking price instead of 10-20% over. But we are a long, long way away from a housing crash. 

    Happened all the time in '08.  I knew multiple people that sent their keys back to the bank because they wouldn't pay for an asset that depreciated over 30%.  They called it, "jingle mail".  These were engineers with good paying jobs, they could afford the house but refused to pay for their purchasing mistake for 30 years.  

     

    Will it be as bad as '08?  I don't know but real estate has appreciated too quickly for too long.  I feel the market has peaked so I pulled a lot of cash from the market in the fall to purchase the right property.  We'll see what happens, I've been right and wrong but I've made enough where it isn't an issue.  My money is on fall '23 as I think it will take that long for rates to hurt prices and the recession to be full swing. 

     

    Below is a graph from Fannie Mae that shows growth slowing dramatically.   

     

    econoutlook011822a.thumb.jpg.f058d02d3f0e1ed0e20394d3c18642f7.jpg

    • Like (+1) 1
  13. On 4/15/2022 at 2:54 PM, B-Man said:

    Thanks Joe.

     

    WaPo: Inflation about to kill off the great real-estate boom

     

    https://hotair.com/ed-morrissey/2022/04/15/wapo-inflation-about-to-kill-off-the-great-real-estate-boom-n462641

    It won't be just the end of a boom, it's going to be a crash.

     

    Prices are going to plateau (happening now) as purchasing slows due to higher payments from the higher interest rates.  Then prices are going to fall as rates go even higher and the interest payment becomes a more significant percentage of the monthly payment.  Once prices drop enough, people are going to find that they're significantly upside down on their mortgage.  Many will decide they aren't going to pay on a $600K mortgage for a house that's only worth $400K.  They're going to walk away and then, that's when prices really plummet.

     

    This is all very similar to 2008 with the exception of the more stringent loan requirements now.  I don't think this crash will be nearly as bad but then again the Fed wasn't raising rates in order to fight inflation like today.

     

    For a $250K mortgage, a 1% rate increase on a 30 yr fixed increases the monthly payment by almost $140.  If rates go up by 5% you're talking about an additional $700/month!

  14. I love how the idiots without any technical background fall over each-other promoting "Follow the Science".  I guess they forgot about.....

     

    When doctors said smoking was good for you (1930's-1950's).

    The thalidomide catastrophe where doctors recommended it and 100K babies died or had birth defects (1950's-1960's).

    Vioxx approved by the FDA in 1999 and led to 60K US deaths.

    Fen-phen approved by the FDA in 1996 led to hundreds of heart defects.

    Lobotomies, still being performed in the 1960's.

     

    Medical errors were the third leading cause of death in the US in 2018. 

     

    Follow the science?  I don't think so.

  15. 29 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

    All the importation of cheap foreign labor does is give otherwise able bodied Americans a convenient excuse to not fill these low skilled positions. Further perpetuating the soft bigotry of low expectations. Wonderful! 

    This conversation reminds me of when I was visiting Pheonix years ago.  This guy came up to me on the street and was like "Yo man, you need some printed circuit boards designed?  I can do some RTL maybe my homie can do a little Solidworks for you too.  My old lady is an accountant, she'll even do your taxes.  What do you say man?"

     

    Crazy stuff!

  16. These immigrants are going to make minimum wage because those are the only jobs they have skills for.  Many will say they don't even have the skills for minimum wage jobs.

     

    The pressure on inflation from minimum wage jobs is very low.  Real inflation from wage pressure comes from high paying jobs and I don't recall seeing a lot of doctors, engineers, accountants standing at the border.

    • Like (+1) 1
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