silvermike

It's been known to happen, but past experience says that come March, owners pay a lot of money for second-tier guys. Especially for skill-position players. A superstar makes $15M at WR (Fitzgerald). Vincent Jackson and DeSean Jackson are going to be well north of $10M. I wouldn't be shocked if some big spending team - Philadelphia, Washington, you know the type comes in and pays Stevie near $9.

I think the franchise tag is going to be the solution here. Everybody can see what Vincent Jackson or DeSean Jackson gets, knock off 15%, and try a long term deal. But I'm guessing the rejected number was for a much longer deal - if Stevie wants an early (guaranteed?) big payday with a chance to hit the market when the real money's out, we might get him cheaper. Two years at $7M each, plus a team option for a third and fourth year at $14M might do it, especially if the latter is guaranteed for injury or something. Because I agree - we're not signing him longterm for less than $9M. But in all of these deals, we should look at at the bonanza coming in the 2014 offseason. It's going to color every deal.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/12/14/players-win-big-under-new-tv-deals/ I'm going to assume that this is accurate. So a $7B media deal, 55% to the players, comes to $120M of salary cap money from the deal, plus all the other money from other sources. I haven't seen the value of the current deal, but this is described as a 60% increase, so that'd make it about a $4.5B deal, which contributes about $77M per team. So that means the cap is going to have to go up a solid $40+ million by 2014, right? That's going to lead to an insane frenzy for any players due for free agency that year, which we should keep in mind when evaluating any future contracts that go through that date. Stevie Johnson will be 28 that year, and probably a prime candidate for a huge pay raise. I'm sure his agent is holding that against us in any talks ongoing, but would it be worthwhile to sign a deal keeping him for just the years until then? Some kind of 2 year, $14M thing?

I'd like Meachem on the team to play with Stevie, not to replace him. He's absolutely not a #1 guy, but he could add some deep routes to our possession passing attack.

Glad he's healthy. Is he any good?

I have to be realistic, right? I'd like to see us sign: Robert Meachem, Anthony Spencer, and maybe a midrange CB. I'd like to ask for more, of course, but even that seems to be stretching it based on recent trends.

Revis only gave up 19 receptions all of last season. Some of that is due to QBs with better second options than Brad Smith, but 8 catches against Revis is a real accomplishment. Johnson can make some plays. Johnson may truly be elite at getting two hands on the football - I don't know if it's the route-running or the physicality, but he's in a position to make a play about as often as anyone in the league. The problem with him is a.) he doesn't have anything like elite hands, as we've seen, and b.) he doesn't have elite speed, so he's not making those plays 20 yards downfield, nor is he turning a corner after grabbing the ball and adding 20 yards after the catch. He is very good at getting three yards after the catch, even if he pulls it down with a CB's arms around him. I'd say he's somewhere around the 15th best WR in the league. Not elite by any stretch, but a legit choice for your top receiver. But you absolutely need to have a second option. Not Smith, not Jones, not Nelson. A speedy guy who can open things up downfield well enough to give Johnson much more space to work with underneath. But there really isn't another choice for our #1 WR next year. There's no way we sign a Jackson or Dwayne Bowe. I think there are some legit choices for the team, though: Robert Meachem's shown flashes in New Orleans, but is badly caught in a numbers game. With a full-time role in Buffalo, he could end up with 800 yards and cost us relatively little. Eddie Royal might be worth a flyer, despite his recent disappearance. There are more. But the guys we could sign are never going to be stars. We're looking for a deep-threat complement.

An awful lot of people saw Stevie Johnson catch pass after pass against Darrell Revis. That's going to send his price up into the franchise-tag area as it is. And it's not ridiculous, either: He's 11th among WRs in receptions, and 20th in yards; 15th in touchdowns. And these aren't numbers that are coming with Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers throwing passes to him. They're respectable, mid-range starter numbers. It's about what Santonio Holmes does, and he's going to expect about what Santonio Holmes makes: in 12 games last year, Holmes had 52/746/6; Johnson in 13 has done 63/790/6. And Holmes got 5 years, $45M, with $24M guaranteed. If we want to talk about star receiver money, look at Larry Fitzgerald, who pulled in $50M guaranteed worth $15M per year. There's a lot of space between $9M and $15M. There's a lot of space between Fitzgerald and Johnson. But good lord, I do not want to see this offense without him. That's his price. If you'd rather pay $12M/season for DeSean Jackson, then go ahead, but I'm not convinced.

Oh yeah. At least, we always did in January. Sometimes we'd let'em win in October to raise the stakes.

Buffalo's never going to be Green Bay, but it's not so far behind a lot of other cities in terms of attractiveness to free agents: Kansas City, St. Louis, Minneapolis, Detroit, Indianapolis, etc. There's nothing about moving to WNY that can't be overcome by putting together a dynamic organization with a real commitment to winning, or at least, the illusion of one. We saw that during the Donahoe era. His moves didn't work out (though they gave us our two best seasons of the decade) but it was enough. We desperately needed a QB and made a big move for on in Bledsoe. That was enough to make real, star players start thinking about Buffalo. Takeo Spikes, London Fletcher, Sam Adams, Lawyer Milloy, Troy Vincent, etc. Chippewa St. was probably less exciting then than it is now, but those guys decided to play here because it was a team that really looked like it might do something. Even Gregg Williams added some excitement to the organization at the time - he was a fresh, new coach with a top reputation as a coordinator. This all wasn't enough, but it was enough to make Buffalo look like a place worth going to. When you rebuild after a terrible season by hiring an in-house, 70-year old first-time GM and a head coach who was last seen being fired from his OC job right before the season, it doesn't add the spark.

Hey, remember when Buffalo-Miami was a marquee matchup? Hall of fame coaches leading hall of fame quarterbacks into battle, in a division where 12 wins only got you a wildcard and you knew a series-split would be resolved in the AFC championship game? We miss you guys. Screw this Brady/Sanchez crap in the AFC East.

When was the last time we were even 8-8?

Always look forward to these, Bill. Agreed. Dareus is a beast, and we'll have Kyle Williams to put next to him next year. If things break at all our way, our defensive line could be very good next year. I'd be interested in seeing Troup on the nose with Dareus and Williams playing ends, if he comes back strong from his injury this year. Ugh. I wasn't keeping an eye on him today, but this isn't news. Frustrating every year, every game. Fun fact: he'll probably finish in the top-15 all time for the Bills in terms of games played. He's one of our own. The announcers were giving Hairston a rough day, but as a rookie LT, I think he's had a passable season. I'll note that Gaither seemed to hold the end fairly well for San Diego today, and he was there for free depth if we wanted him a couple weeks ago. He's not the guy I thought he was a year ago, but he could well be a valuable player. Any thoughts on Pears' long term viability there? That 15-yard punt brought tears to my eyes, but I'm not ready to shoot the old horse yet. He's getting good distance this year, but the return coverage has gotten a lot worse sans Bobby April. Our special teams fell back this regime. I don't like it. Depth issues? DeHaven might just not have the scheming ability. Spiller had so much promise last week. This week, back to business as usual. I still don't think he's bad enough to merit the neglect our game plan gives the running game. I don't care how far you're down in the first half, run the ball! Especially if your defense has been off. You need to show that you can control the game, not start swinging wildly for the fences. And I'm out of time. Agreed on Stevie Johnson, he's one of the only guys left playing like he really gives two craps about the outcome. Hopefully that's not just for the contract.

Choice does come in fairly often on third downs so far, but rarely gets the ball. I think he must be a better pass-blocker than CJ.

Seem like good choices to me. There's also AJ Smith, if Ralph requires someone he knows. Smith is likely to be fired unless we saved his job yesterday. I forget if Smith hates Ralph or not; he's certainly a flawed choice. Eric DeCosta would be a great hire, if it's possible to lure him away from Baltimore. I don't get the sense Ozzie plans to retire anytime soon, so if DeCosta wants a top job, this is his window. Doug Whaley doesn't strike me as a terrible option, all things considered.

Mike Mularkey: .438 Perry Fewell: .429 Dick Jauron: .421 Gregg Williams: .354 Chan Gailey: .321 Did those four guys have more talent, or more ability?

How about Floyd Reese?

+1

Does Dalton really have 600 attempts already in his career? Do they run at all?

In the same number of games with the Bills, Fitz has thrown for an extra 1200 yards, taken six fewer sacks, and doubled up Tredwards in touchdowns. And then threw one more on top of that. 51-25. So go back through Trent's game and see how many we would have won if you doubled his TD passes, should we want to play this game.

I was already out of high school before I was finally and permanently convinced that every UDFA WR who has two 4th quarter TDs in a preseason game isn't hte second coming of Andre Reed. I think Antonio Brown was the final straw, depsite his preseason return TDs.

Carter-Reed-Brown all won't get in, and I think they're going to keep knocking each other out as votes split, year after year.

Both. If they're starkly different, start looking at the offense and the breaks of the season to figure out which is a better indicator.

Yep. And there's only one way to beat that.

I'm rooting for them. A 19-0 season will wipe the smirks off of the Dolphins and the Patriots.