BillsToast
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Posts posted by BillsToast
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It's not just analytics, it's been a pretty standard procedure the last few years.
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1 hour ago, Irv said:
I'm wondering if the empty stadiums helped Josh this year. Maybe helped him change plays, see a little better against a solid backdrop. Maybe without the crowd he didn't get too hopped up? Before you ask: Yes. I am working from home and....no, I don't have anything better to think about. And, yes, I do need to get a life.
It helped every QB across the board, the question is next year and if he continues the progress he's shown. There is still the possibility of regress from acclimation, but I still think there "aint no mountain high enough" for Josh....... Rosen
And get a life hahahaha j/k
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15 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:
Anyone who says Allen can make all the throws that Mahomes can really hasn't watched much of Mahomes.
He can make a wider variety of throws and from more platforms than anyone who has ever played the game.............which is why he has one ring and really should have 2.
Allen is a great arm talent too but his effectiveness is more the product of hard work and mechanical improvements........which is also a great plus.......but it's a difference.
Maybe not literally all the throws, but it works both ways. I think there are tons of throws Mahomes can't make that Allen hits.
The question is moving forward who has the higher upside? It sounds insane but Allen has a higher upside:
-Throwing on the run
-Bigger arm
-Keeps improving
-Has more to learn in the mental side than Mahomes
-Still started slow in some games
I mean he's upside city.
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I thought he was LeBeau part II. I think he was way over his head in the coaching department on offense, but he understands motivation and how to be a team probably than any coach in the league. After year 1 I was fascinated because we made the playoffs and we sucked.
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25 minutes ago, ProcessAccepted said:
In the playoffs, with a full moon, and whatever else Nick Wright wants to add to avoid admitting that he's just there to get clicks.
Maybe he saw Allen was his father on Wiki and screamed "Nooooo" in a Skywalkeresque fashion. I told Wright to seach his feelings... we'll see how he responds.
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Now he needs to increase his accuracy outside the pocket 😇
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6 hours ago, Shaw66 said:
Sorry, but I think this is wrong. Before the season started, I said - and I was not alone - that Allen probably would be a top 10-15 QB and possibly top 10. I said that sometime by his fifth season, and maybe earlier, he'd be recognized as one of the top QBs in the league. I'm not saying this to say how talented I am - as I said, other people saw this, too. All you had to do was watch the parade of great, great plays he made in his first two seasons, the almost unbelievable throws, throws that were as good as the best we see from Rodgers, watch his improvement, watch his leadership, and listen to what his coaches and teammates were saying about him. It wasn't an absolute certainty that he would become a star, but it seemed pretty likely.
In fact, all you had to was watch Allen's first season in Buffalo. In May following his first season, I wrote this about him:
It's incredible to watch, for sure, but that doesn't mean people didn't see it coming.
I'm not wrong. I said no serious analyst, not Bills fans. Of course we might say something, but we've said the same for decades and have been proven wrong. Serious analysts are supposed to be right 33-50% of the time, fans are usually wrong 90%+ of the time either because we have either too much enthusiasm or complete despair. Read the thread after we lost the playoffs. It was literally wrist slitting territory.
Also, a few great throws does not make a QB. Complete good games do. He had probably 2-3 out of 32 in his 1st 2 seasons. You hope to get 3-5 the next season, not the majority of all of his games for the whole season. Allen was a genuine freak of nature for the jump he made. I was hoping for a QB around 10-12th in throwing stats and the 2nd best runner behind Jackson with improvements in year 4 and 5. I am more than pleasantly surprised and he's literally in a league of his own if he continues to work hard.
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33 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:
Just finished reading this and was headed over to share it. Thanks for sharing. A nice read for sure!
my biggest annoyance with the people finally admitting to this is when they reference his first TWO seasons and still cant believe what they are seeing.... if they paid any sort of attention at all to the improvements from year 1 to year 2, and his overall production last year, then this season wouldnt be so mind blowing.
We all know theres a handful of members around here that refuse to show up on the same daily basis that they used to. But when they do they talk about how nobody ever coulda saw them being a good qb and that they werent wrong. BS, if people couldnt see the steady improvement and generational talent that was accenting it, then thats on them and they should feel as foolish as they look now.
I have to say that it is mind-blowing to go from the bottom 1/3 of QBs for throwing stats to top 5. No serious analyst could imagine that happening, maybe from bottom 1/3 to top 10-13 maybe, but to go into the top 3?
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55 minutes ago, That's No Moon said:
I'm going to sound INCREDIBLY old right now but all of these comparisons need to remember and take into account the myriad of rule changes that have happened since 1990-91. You can't bludgeon people over the middle, you can't hit the QB high, you can't hit the QB low, you can't hit the QB even remotely late, you can hold basically every down on offense, DBs get called for WAY more holding and illegal contact now than before, a defenseless receiver was something to murder not to avoid, there was no sliding like WRs do now to avoid contact. If you slid like that in front of Steve Atwater you'd lose your head.
If you read this and think I sound like a boomer go watch a game from 90 or 91 on YouTube and tell me what you think. The games are there. Go watch them and count the number of things that would be obvious and blatant penalties today that not only weren't penalties they were lauded as good plays at the time.
DING DING DING we have a winner here.
The game has changed so much that looking at Farve's lifetime stats by year tell some of the story. He was MVP with a 90's QB rating, then later in his career he was a post 100+ QB rating.
Players weren't able to get to 4k yards a season because it was so hard. There is no hearing the footsteps as a WR, there is no penalty for attacking the QB. That gives the QB calmer feet. The whole thing is an offensive league now.
Half of QBs in 2020 throw 65% completion rate or higher. 10 QBs have a rating 100+ and 9 QBs threw over 4k yards. 9 QBs had 30+ TDs and 19 over 20 TDs.
1992? 2 QBs over 65%, 1 QB over 100+ QB rating, 5 QBs threw over 20 TDs and none over 25 TDs. Only 1 QB over 4k yards in a season.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/1992/passing.htm
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Kelly is by far the better player until Allen wins a SB or goes to 5 SBs without a win. Then he's better.
Until then it's a different era so you can't compare stats. Kelly threw in a league where all RB1s had 1,000 yards and QBs rarely threw 30 times a game.
Stat comparisons don't match up from 1 generation to another in any sport except for golf.
Unless of course you believe Drew Brees was a better QB than Joe Montana. If that's the case I don't know what to tell you.
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24 minutes ago, Logic said:
Putting aside all the game implications, I mostly just wanted to say this:
Prayers up for Fitzy. I hope he makes a full and quick recovery and has no long lasting issues or complications.Has any player had any complications yet?
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1 hour ago, Ramza86 said:
That makes the pick incredibly ballsy doesnt it?
To think that we just drafted a guy 7th overall who made some really big throws in college and thats it?
Tough to think that he would go anywhere near the 1st round if that were the case.
He shouldn't have gone in the 1st. He was a true project.
The fact that it all worked out is miraculous and frankly I couldn't be more pleased.
On the other hand if he wasn't drafted in the 1st people wouldn't have much tolerance for all of his bad games in years 1 & 2. Sometimes good things happen to good people at just the right time.
I'm happy it's the Bills and it's Allen. A perfect chemistry.
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4 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:
And the funny thing is that the "experts" who comment on the game never got the email that the game has changed.
The conventional wisdom surrounding the game of football is extremely low IQ. Always has been.
You see it in every sport that changes:
NBA: 3's don't win championships
NFL: Have to run to setup the pass
MMA: Have to be great at jujitsu
Tennis: You have to come to the net
Rules change, game changes, techniques improve and sports are never the same.
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You always have to wait for another season like this one before going both feet in.
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Because it used to be true but the game evolved in both rule changes and in application. There are a bunch of these old mantras that no longer exist but were true in their day.
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On 12/25/2020 at 10:30 AM, JoshAllenReceipts said:
Trevor Lawrence will never be a better NFL QB than Josh Allen. He's just a prospect playing for a loaded Clemson team. Allen is no longer a "prospect" - he's one of the best QBs in the NFL. Is Lawrence more talented than Allen? Absolutely not. The odds are that Lawrence never reaches the level of a Josh Allen.
Jets fans should be more upset about missing out on Allen. He was sitting right there in their laps for the taking - all they had to do was make the selection. Instead, they allowed a division rival to land him because they misevaluated Darnold/Allen. The double whammy of a division rival kicking their butt for the next 15 years makes it worse.
Jets fans should keep the same energy.
Truth is Darnold was a better prospect from a risk/reward ratio. Allen probably would have failed in 90-99% of all franchises. We just picked the right guy with the right front office and coaching staff.
The Allen Project has been tried and failed under many different names. I'm just ecstatic it worked for us. We have the most talented QB in NFL history. He's 98% of Mahomes abilities with 20% more to grow.
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Trask from Florida is not a bad 2nd place prize. He's a great player, but if they coach him like they coached Darnold he's toast. I think Trask is a far better passer than Darnold.
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21 hours ago, Victory Formation said:
Darnold would have been a better QB had he went to Buffalo but his ceiling would have been nowhere near what Allen’s is.. Allen would have been out of the league in 5 years had he went to the Jets.. Maybe Darnold would’ve been a fringe top 10 QB here.. maybe..
That's a pretty fair analysis.
Mahomes would not be "Mahomes" on a lot of teams. Hill said he was "trash" year #1.
Where you're drafted has a lot to do with your success if you're a developmental QB.
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22 hours ago, racketmaster said:
Bills getting more and more respect. Can’t remember another time in the last 20 years we have been ranked #1 by a national media personality, especially this late in season.
In 2003 brother. We were #1 then... for a short period of time.
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"Josh Allen is Nick Wright's daddy" --> legendary
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11 hours ago, GunnerBill said:
Why can't he have games like last night 4 years from today? I am not sure I buy that. How much you should pay him is a really tough question - I agree. Because he is something of a unicorn in the market.
Because a guy like him has to run up the middle for his big plays and if you watch him get tackled you know these guys are trying to hurt him. He has a small frame and just like Vick near 28 or 29 he can run, but not for as many yards and he lost games to injury.
What happens when he can only rush for 600 yards a season? Is he valuable? Not the way he passes. He needs to rush for 1,000/yr every year to have a great year. Running backs can't break 1k/season without injury after 4-5 years. He's not built like a RB.
He needs an above average D, a great run game, and personally needs to run for 80 yards a game to be effective.
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12 hours ago, GunnerBill said:
The whole reason the Lamar debate should not be stuck on absolutes like "MVP" or "End of era" is because Lamar can win like he won last night. That isn't a one off.
Lamar isn't a flash in the pan. He is going to win plenty of games in the NFL. Whether you can ever win a Championship playing this way is a fair question.... I think everything else would need to be perfect - and certainly this year their offensive line hasn't been with Yanda retiring, Stanley tearing his ACL and other injuries.
...Because his gifts mean he is the only QB in the league that I think could win regularly completing 10-15 passes. That is the 14th time in his young career he has done it. It is not a fluke.
Much of this is true, but the Lamar era ends next year. Which GM wants to pay him $30 mil for a guy on his physical downside and needs that physicality just be good or decent? He won't have games like last night in 4 years from today.
This is his window, he's earned it. He should be praised and he should be enjoyed. He's a great player, one of the greatest we've seen, but we have to recognize he's a short window athlete heading towards the end of greatness relatively fast. It's just a shame guys like him and great RBs won't be rewarded in FA anymore. He'll be a millionaire if he can save now, but I doubt he'll get top 10 starter money by the end of next year. If they pick up his 5th year option it's just to get meat from the bones.
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Jackson's final year as a starter will be next year. His body will be near the end of it's peak for athleticism with only downside.
He's a rookie contract QB only. The Ravens were smart to try to win with him for that short window. People remember a Superbowl victory over 30 years of "trying" and they basically were the Superbowl favorites last year.
Good effort but the gimmick is over.
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I thought our only mistake wasn't in drafting more QBs in rounds 2 or 3 during those years. Maybe 2-3 of them. I really wanted Derek Carr in round 2 in 2014 and some losers that didn't pan out. The problem is we didn't try. Edwards and Losman was it. I always throught Losman was trash but had hopes for Edwards.
The fact we didn't try even in rounds 4 or 5 is also stunning to me.
Reich in large part may have lost due to his reliance on analytics...a cautionary tale
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
The last 2-3 years it has.
The same NFL that goes for it around the 40 yard line on 4th and 3.
Game changed. Doug Peterson was the starter of this and his OC was Reich.