[Logic's Buffalo Bills Draft Review -- The more things change, the more they stay the same]

On 4/27/2024 at 6:07 PM, Logic said:

I'll start by saying that this was far from my favorite Bills draft.

I'm usually Mr Optimistic when it comes to draft classes, but I thought this year's class was just...fine. It was like if you fed Brandon Beane's draft tendencies and the Bills' needs into ChatGPT and asked it to spit out the 2024 Bills draft class. It was completely on brand, it filled the needs we all knew the team had, and it'll probably end up producing a few average players and a couple good ones.

Ho-hum. Nobody in this class makes me stand up and say "that guy's really gonna help the Bills get over the hump and win a title". 

Onto the picks:

1. Keon Coleman - I was not a fan of this pick. For a team whose WR corps needed more speed and separation, this guy made the LEAST sense to me of all the 1st/2nd round WR prospects. Josh Allen has historically thrived with fast, shifty WRs who separate well, and has not clicked with big-bodied guys who struggle with separation. So adding Keon Coleman? It feels like "Square peg, meet round hole". He does have great athleticism and RAC ability for a man his size. He's also young to the position, having played football full time for only two seasons and being only 20 years old. I have concerns about his ability to play X in the NFL, and I'll believe that he's a better fit as a big slot until proven otherwise. Here's hoping I'm wrong about Coleman. The absolute ceiling I see for him is "Solid WR2". Not what I was hoping for in a star studded WR class and with a crying need at the position.

2. Cole Bishop - Looks like he should be just what the doctor ordered at safety for the Bills. He seems to be more Poyer than Hyde, in that he's at his best in the box and playing the run, and he packs a wallop when he tackles. He appears to have untapped man coverage potential, with Dalton Kincaid saying Bishop usually got the better of him 1-on-1 at Utah. He also has freaky speed for the position and a great mental disposition. Should be an easy fit in the Bills' scheme. At the VERY least, I expect him to contribute from day 1 as a dime 'backer, but I'll ultimately be surprised if he doesn't wind up starting at one of the two safety spots by midseason. 

3. Dewayne Carter - Good bull rusher, great motor, tons of experience, impeccable character. Seems like a 1T/3T 'tweener. Quickly apparent from his interviews that he's one of the smartest, most likable, easy to root for guys you'll ever see in the NFL. Should be a quality rotational tackle for the Bills and seems like, in time, he will provide quality leadership and a steadying presence on the D-line. May never be a big play guy, but may at least be a "dirty work" guy who allows others around him to thrive.

4. Ray Davis - Hard running inside guy with great vision, ability to get skinny, contact balance, and underrated breakaway ability. Had the most receiving TDs in 2023 of any SEC running back in 25 years. Should provide a nice change of pace to James Cook without the Bills necessarily losing anything in the pass game when he comes on the field. An older prospect, but I don't care, because he's a running back, and he won't be here past his first contract anyway. Another "likability" and leadership All-Star. Davis should provide steadiness and depth, but doesn't do anything that wows you, and I'm not sure he moves the needle much on offense.

5. Sedrick Van Pran - Tons of starting experience at Georgia. Has some traits reminiscent of Mitch Morse in terms of quickness, twitch, and ability on the move. Stop me if you've heard this one before -- lauded for his leadership. Should provide a good backup plan to Connor McGovern at center and/or provide competition at that position. It will not shock me if this guy is starting by year two. Seems like a great value at this point in the draft. One of my favorite picks.

5. Edufuan Ulofoshio - What do you want me to say? You didn't think the Bills would let a draft pass them by without selecting a late round special teams linebacker, did you? The room is starting to get a bit crowded with Milano, Bernard, Williams, Morrow, Spector, and Ulofoshio. However...the Bills lost ST stalwarts Dodsen, Matakevitch, and Neal, and needed some reinforcements there. That's what Ulo seems to be. I'll be surprised if he ever amounts to more than that, but at this point in the draft, that's what you're getting.

5. Javon Soloman - Undersized speed rusher (though he does have a great wingspan for the position) who had absolutely eye-popping production at Troy, where he out-produced Demarcus Ware and Osi Umenyoira. He can be a designated pass rusher and special teams guy and can learn from his idol Von Miller, after whom he says he models his game. Very much a boom/bust prospect, with seemingly equal potential to be the steal of the draft or an outright bust. I liked this pick a lot, and I'm betting on the former over the latter.

6. Tylan Grable - What do you want me to say? Did you think the Bills were gonna let a draft go by without taking a project offensive tackle late? I don't have much to say about this guy. He's just like Tommy Doyle or Luke Tenuta before him: a developmental tackle prospect who's a long shot to make the 53-man roster. With VanDemark and Collins already in place as backup OTs, it's hard to see this guy making the roster.

6. Daequan Hardy - Special teams guy. Standout punt returner and gunner. I usually look to Bills' late round corners with excitement, because they're usually big-bodied guys with zone eyes who only dropped due to underwhelming athleticism. Hardy does not appear to fit that mold. He appears instead to be a punt return candidate and, beyond that, I'm not sure where he'd fit in. His only hope is as a nickel, but the Bills are obviously set there with Taron Johnson.

7. Travis Clayton - At least this one's fun. A guy from the International Pathways program who has never played a down of football in his life. But he's 6'7", 301 lbs and runs a 4.79. The hope is that he turns into the next Jordan Mailata. A fun story and will be fun to track, but obviously a longshot and likely a practice squad guy at best.



Overall, it was clear that leadership, maturity, and experience were high priorities for the Bills this year. Again and again, they picked guys who were team captains and lauded for their leadership abilities. Given all the leadership that walked out the door this offseason, that certainly makes sense. Again and again, they picked guys with lots of starting experience, guys who shined at the Senior Bowl, and guys who have their heads screwed on straight. Given that they will be counting on some of these guys to contribute from day one, and given that they seem to be doing a bit of a locker room reset, this also makes sense. 

The reason that I am ultimately unexcited by this year's draft class is this: I wanted the Bills to prioritize building around Josh Allen. I wanted them to either take a swing for the fences by trading up for a star receiver, or -- failing that -- to go the Packers route and draft a handful of skill position players to surround him with. If they were unable to acquire great quality, then I hoped they would at least acquire quantity. I fear that in choosing Keon Coleman, they may have failed to achieve the "quality" goal, and in refusing to draft any other receivers, they also failed to achieve the "quantity" goal. And Ray Davis is the definition of "uninspiring" at running back. He'll be a fine depth player and grind out tough yards, I'm sure, but he doesn't move the needle much on offense. Neither Coleman nor Davis seem like they upgrade the offense. Just...status quo at best.

In a year where I felt the very TOP priority was to improve on offense, I feel the Bills failed to meaningfully do so. In an offseason where I hoped they'd make a bold move or two to try to find an elite player for this offense, they failed to try. After hearing "Josh needs more weapons" for a couple years running, he now seems to have less. The WR corps seems to have regressed, and seems to lack any true downfield explosiveness or viable deep threat. 

This draft class was not a disaster, by any means. it seems FINE. Just fine. Keon Coleman doesn't scream "Alpha WR1" to me. Ray Davis seems like an average NFL backup. Cole Bishop and Javon Soloman seem to perhaps have playmaking potential on defense. Beyond that -- meh.

When the Bills decided to go young and start a roster reset, I had hope that Beane was gonna try to do things differently, since the old way he was doing things didn't get the Bills over the hump. They've been hitting too man singles and doubles over the years and not enough home runs. Instead, he appears to be doing things exactly the same way this time around. He seems to be content to collect character/culture guys, whose ceiling is "good, solid NFL player", rather than taking any risks or big swings for potential stars. He hasn't really taken those swings, to my estimation, since the Allen/Edmunds class. THAT'S why I'm disappointed in this draft class. It seems fine, solid, steady, and logical, but it doesn't seem like it'll move the needle much.

I will move on to hoping that the post June 1st money infusion brings us a quality veteran receiver and maybe a pass rusher either via free agency or trade. Failing that, it would be hard for me to conclude anything other than that it looks like the Bills are poised to take a step back this year. 2025 looks promising in terms of cap space and draft capital, but if it's gonna continue to be "business as usual" for Brandon Beane, then I'm not sure how excited I should allow myself to get for that. 

The more things change, the more they stay the same.

Excellent post, and well researched. I couldn’t agree more with your assessment of the players, especially Coleman. Man I love the kid, but you’re right. It gets talked a lot on here about Josh likes separation when throwing to his receivers. Coleman looks like an acrobatic contested catch receiver. On paper, it’s not a good match. With that being said, I trust the front office and coaches. Hopefully they work their magic. We can’t afford to miss on such a high pick.

 

I’m really excited to see what McD. Will do with Bishop.

[Can Buffalo catch the Dolphins?]

 

 

[Goodell: The NFL will become very global. More international games over the next 10 years.]

The NFL’s product on the field is trending in a poor direction. Between the gambling and refs, the product looks tarnished to me. Bottom line, if you try to sell this to someone who isn’t already a fan I don’t think you’re going to have a successful go. Move to full time refs, who call competent games, get rid of gambling (I know it’s never happening) and I can see international succeeding.

[Who should coach this team in 2024?]

10 hours ago, Cheektowaga Chad said:

Sean McDermott for frank Reich and a pick

 

Who says no

Nostradamus! Now Reich can be had for just a contract!

[Josh Allen on Rich Eisen today]

2 hours ago, Airseven said:

 

If they were playing the Panthers, they'd say going to Carolina. They wouldn't say going to North Carolina. It's intended as the (harmless) NY/NJ jab.

What? The Jets and Giants literally play in New Jersey. It’s not a harmless jab, it’s a point of pride for Bills fans.

[Trade Candidates?]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

If Tre isn't back to something like himself they will cut him after 2023. He can save them up to $10m in space.

Gotcha? Yeah I have a different take, seems he’s back by all accounts. I think he took a year to trust his knee. I had a knee injury and it took a long time not to think about it. I think he’s a lock.

[Trade Candidates?]

16 minutes ago, Rico said:

Way too soon. #1 & 2 CBs next year could very well be Elam and Dane, no guarantee Tre is still on the team in 2024.

Why would you say that? He’s signed until 2025. Just curious, do you think we will trade or cut him? Cheers.

[Should the “Bills Mafia” make the wall of fame or is it covered by the 12th man?]

Mods, can I get this thread shut down? It’s turned into a sh#t show. I was curious how people saw the 12th man vs Bills mafia. And should it be considered for the ring of honor. IT WASNT A VOTE!

[Interesting NY Post article…claims Kincaid was Beane’s target days before the draft…]

On 8/10/2023 at 8:32 AM, BillsFanNC said:

 

Yep.

 

 

 

Thanks! Looks like they got at least two maybe three players they liked a lot.

[Should the “Bills Mafia” make the wall of fame or is it covered by the 12th man?]

1 hour ago, I'm Spartacus said:

Don't mess with the 12th Man. It was the original fandom moniker and they "willed" some Bills victories over visiting teams. Broke NFL attendance records for 2nd smallest market. Seattle stole the name from us too.

Agreed, like you I’m the 12th man. I was in the stadium with you. I was an 8 year old when Leopold? Ended Miami’ s ten year streak. I feel like they might be two separate entities which is weird. I’ve been to epic games, goal post games, that’s the 12th man. I thin Bills Mafia is something different, something that evolved from the the 12th man.

[Should the “Bills Mafia” make the wall of fame or is it covered by the 12th man?]

That’s what I was thinking. The 12th man is pretty generic, but not sure if it’s ok to take down the 12th man. Wonder what the plans are for the new stadium?

[Should the “Bills Mafia” make the wall of fame or is it covered by the 12th man?]

I was watching local coverage of training camp and they mentioned how great the Bills Mafia were. Sean mentioned that it was really important for the young guys to get that exposure and see how they respond with fans in the house. Is the 12th man different than Bills Mafia or is it just an updated more specific name for our fans? Should it’s be reflected on the wall of fame? 

[First time at Buffalo!]

4 hours ago, Gonzonzo said:

Good morning. After more than 20 years as a fan of the Bills, this year I will fulfill one of the biggest dreams of my life and I will travel from Argentina with my brother to see them play live against the Raiders at home and then with Comanders (or whatever they are going to be called at that point in the season) as a visitor.

 

First, I wanted to thank everyone who day by day makes this forum the best sports forum in the world and who have helped at least my passion for the Bills grow to unsuspected limits.

 

Although I have been following this forum for years, there are some doubts that I have and with which you may be able to help me:

 

- We will be stopping, I think, at the Lenox Hotel. Looking at google maps I see that you can go to the stadium with the bus number 14. I ask you if this is possible and how long it takes approximately. Will it be very complicated then the return? If there is any other better option, please tell me.

- Regarding the tickets, I have doubts whether to go to home side (I understand it is the sunny side) or if it is better to go on the opposite side.

- What time do you recommend we arrive at the stadium? ¿10/11 am?

- Apart from Niagara Falls, which other places recommend we visit in the city (we will only be there on Saturday and Sunday of the game).

- To go for a walk around the city I see that there is a public bicycle rental system, is this correct?

- What place do you recommend us to eat? It does not have to be luxurious but something that makes us feel that we are living the Buffalo experience.

 

Any other recommendation you can make would be appreciated.

Sorry for so many questions I'm Go Bills!

 

Ps: If someone comes to travel to Buenos Aires, do not hesitate to contact me!

I do not live in Buffalo anymore, but I grew up there and get back every few months.

1. Really depends on time of year, but I only go once a year. I like being behind the team.

2. We arrive at 8ish. By the time you set up, tailgate for a bit, then break it down, it’s usually time to head in.

We have a group of 9 going to Commanders game if you want to join us.

3. Bills store on a non Sunday, a lot of parks on the water. Not sure if Sullivan ships are open, Chestnut Ridge.

4. No idea about this.

5. Buffalo has amazing food and restaurants. I highly, highly recommend Bar Bill and Gabriel’s Gate. Schwabels for Beef on Weck. Most Greek places are great. I had a La Nova pizza last week and liked it. There are also a ton of ethnic food restaurants. 

Enjoy the game and pm if you want to tailgate.

im sure some will bash my food selections 🤷🏻‍♂️

 

[Training camp hospitality tent ???????]

9 hours ago, mrags said:

Oh, I already have one of those. I had a time where I bought jerseys of all the worst Bills QBs. I have my EJ and Flutie jerseys already autographed and framed. 

I’m 57 and having been going to games since I was 5. The first jersey I ever bought was EJ Manuel. So I am with you my friend. Buying crappy jerseys sucks. My next and only purchase was a Kelly jersey. I’m considering another one with this team.

[Ed Oliver big extension]

7 hours ago, Sierra Foothills said:

Hmmm, all this talk about making Oliver earn the new contract.

 

Minimally this casts aspersions on Oliver's character (some made comparisons to Dareus and Haynesworth... nice touch) as well as the judgement of McBeane.

 

Isn't it more likely that the Bills know what makes Oliver tick and feel very comfortable extending him now? Don't you think they are comfortable with his motivation going forward?

I’m not sure if the Bills know what makes Oliver tick. I think I do, I mentioned money. 
 

They apparently are very comfortable with his motivation going forward. They just gave him a sizable contract. 
 

Thanks for the dialogue. 

[Ed Oliver big extension]

2 minutes ago, Eastport bills said:

At 25 years old, he’s shown management enough to warrant the extension. I would have preferred letting him play for his next contract, but if he had his best season like Edmunds, you’re in a bidding war. Face it, 68 for  4 is the going rate for an impactful d-tackle, with 45 guaranteed. They’re betting he anchors their d-line for the next several years. If you trust Beane and Sean’s instincts for young talent, just accept this extension. The fans that think this move precluded the Hopkins signing, it doesn’t.

You bring up excellent points. I hope you’re right. I’m a huge fan of big balls Beane. I just am in the camp, to get the most out ofOliver  I think a contract year would make him a very serious force. Possibily with a SB win. If he’s hyper motivated to get paid, maybe that’s the last piece. I’m still mulling this over, but I’m leaning meh.

[Ed Oliver big extension]

1 minute ago, bearstobills said:

I appreciate this take, but you conveniently left off the disparity in their total tackles.  It's massive.  I wish Ed was Kyle.  Kyle was special.  I have been defending the Ed signing, but if there is a Kylesque player in the draft next year...please jump on him!!

Great point.

[Ed Oliver big extension]

1 minute ago, Mat68 said:

Maybe but the NFL disagrees.  

No argument my friend.

[Ed Oliver big extension]

4 minutes ago, Chaos said:

The board response to a Gabe Davis extension is going to be epic. 

You sir a a very funny guy.  I’m praying Davis explodes this year.

[Ed Oliver big extension]

7 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Then he plays too well and they cant pay him.  Like Edmunds.  

Oh I completely agree, and I’d let him walk. He will command huge money. Im glad Edmunds got his. But I don’t think he’s worth the big pay check. Lots of guys gotta get paid. Tauron Johnson should have an extra zero in his paycheck in my mind before Oliver. 

[Ed Oliver big extension]

6 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

For those curious Kyle Williams didnt make a pro bowl until year 5.  Oliver in his his first 4 years has 6 more sacks twice as many forced fumbles and only 2 less tackles for loss.  Salaries have ballooned Oliver has been solid not elite.  The contract matches and provides Buffalo flexibility.  Buffalo could restructure both Dawkins and White and pay Hopkins 15 mil without using void years.

You bring up great points. But I wanted Oliver to play out his last year motivated and hungry. I just think he’s motivated by money. 

[Ed Oliver big extension]

3 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

To be clear I don’t think that at all of her is going to go on cruise control from this contract

 

I am more concerned on the trickle down effects of guys like DaQuan Jones, and poona Ford however

What do you mean my trickle effect? I do think otherwise for this particular player. I agree that some players are just motivated to win. I think others want a pay day. I got Oliver in the pay day category . 

[Ed Oliver big extension]

11 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Its 2023 we all realize the Guaranteed money is the real deal.  By resigning him now Buffalo will lower his cap number this year.  Paying a starting level player who is 25 less than top 10 money is a win.  Its as team friendly as it gets.  The cap has increased so these numbers hurt peoples brains but by the time his draft class signs his number will be 15th to 20th in annual rank.  

And that’s where I would rank him Average at best. I’m meh on this, I’d of preferred he played lights out looking for a pay day.

[Ed Oliver big extension]

Never sign a questionable player on their last year. Like Shaq and endless other examples, guys in the last year of their contract are motivated. If he plays to get paid, probably gonna be awesome. Got paid, time for cruise control. I hate it, but that’s what I think.  

[Nick Foles...Better Backup or Keep the Bromance]

1 hour ago, Gugny said:

If Allen goes down, the Bills are done, regardless of who the backup is. 
 

 

 

Simple statement. Deep implications. Still digesting it, not sure if I agree or disagree. But if we lose Allen and our season is toast. That’s saying a lot about our team. I’d like to think we would still be competitive. But if we are not, and depend on Allen that much, we aren’t a SB team.