Einstein's Dog
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Posts posted by Einstein's Dog
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1 hour ago, Mat68 said:
MVS, Hollins and whoever else makes the roster are vying for the scraps. MVS and Hollins are better wrs than Harty and Sherfield. Hamler and Claypool offer more potential though neither have an expectation of playing or being on the roster. I dont expect them being able to afford the contract of Ayuik, Metcalf, or Adams. Eating the amount of salary to get under the 10 mil post June 1st would likely require a 1st. Thats a road I dont see Beane and Buffalo going. 24 Kincaid will be the primary target. Shakir, Samuel and Coleman will receive 90% of the wr targets.
Managing the cap is part of Beane's job. If he chooses to not get another WR my evaluation of his performance decreases tremendously. He should of had (and I think he did) all of this planned or at least outlined in his head prior to unloading Diggs. The idea floated about now that Beane is ahead of the curve by assembling a room of no-name WRs doesn't come close to cutting it.
No, my avenue to thinking Beane is smart is through his thinking ahead when he accumulated draft picks, put aside Tre money, and left some Josh money on the table, and only drafted one WR. That all makes sense when he trades for a good WR. A WR room featuring a rookie, $8M WR2/3, and Shakir is mind-blowingly poor.
Getting into the weeds a little bit on the cap piece, the salary can be manipulated once they are brought on board. For instance last years salary of DHop is listed as $1.8M in spotrac. Games can be played with distributing the cost over multiple years. And if we got a WR for multiple years, the offensive playmakers are set. Josh- multiple, Cook 2 yrs more, Kincaid 4yrs, Shakir 2, K Coleman 4, Samuel 3, new WR multiple, backup RB 4. They don't need 2025 cap on offense playmakers.
We'll see if Shaw changes his tune once Beane pulls the trigger and gets a real WR in here. Then you can say, even in this youth transition Beane improved the WR room. That's a good GM.
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13 minutes ago, Mat68 said:
I see it as take Diggs 160 targets split between Samuel and Shakir. Most of Davis to Coleman. The remainder of targets to MVS, Hollins and whoever else makes the roster. Kincaid and Cook likely see more too. I think Kincaid is the only guy with over 100 targets. Shakir, Samuel and Coleman will relatively have a similar share. Not one wr is replacing Diggs. I think Shakir is highly thought of in the organization and Samuel could have a career year playing with far and away his best qb. It’s not the greatest show on turf. It also is not the 2018 wr core. I think its better than 2019 and with Kincaid and Cook make it an above average group.
It's the MVS, Hollins part that I do not want to see. For all the talk about interchangeable WRs - it does not include those dregs.
Don't need someone to take the volume of Diggs, but instead someone who is good, who helps split the overall target share and who would force the defenses to strategize against, which in turn makes the targets to the remaining players easier.
If we get a Metcalf/Aiyuk/D Adams/Dhop the whole defensive strategy changes and Samuel/Shakir/Kincaid group will be free to eat underneath.
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2 minutes ago, chris heff said:
Fair enough, but I think you’re discounting Samuel. He is the most interesting WR signing, the only legitimate QB he ever played with is Newton at the end of his career, others were Kyle Allen, Taylor Heinicke and Sam Howell. He has been on bad teams with bad QBs.
I like the Samuel pick in the context of having Samuel and K Coleman take over the expected role of G Davis. I can see that being an improvement. And Samuel could also get snaps for Shakir.
The one addition makes a huge difference IMO. It significantly changes my entire evaluation of Beane's off-season moves.
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1 minute ago, chris heff said:
Diggs was mediocre to downright invisible in multiple games for two seasons, he was a cancer in the locker room. He did the same thing in Minnesota. Diggs had to go. It’s not so easy to go out and get a veteran WR1.
I don't have a problem with moving Diggs- unless the plan was to replace him with C Samuel, then that is a terrible plan.
And just because Diggs wasn't good down the stretch doesn't mean you replace them with someone who isn't good. You try to upgrade.
It may not be easy to get a good veteran WR, but that is Beane's job! The available WRs are not publicly posted but seems like they would be out there if the offer is right. That's why I'm thinking post June 1st something happens.
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12 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:
His worst year. By a lot. Because of one theoretical player.
Because the downgrade at such an important position is so large. WR1 in particular.
You can't seriously tell me you're replacing Diggs with a rookie or an $8M FA Wash WR2/3. It is such a downgrade, that yes, if significantly affects my entire evaluation of Beane's off-season work.
And I like Beane, I have thought he was one of the best in the business. The one additional WR keeps him in that realm. That's why I think it is going to happen.
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1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:
Kupp and St. Brown would dominate on the Bills every year.
how many of the greatest WRs playing now--or in history--- dominated simply because they were/are "physical"?
The Bills and the WR room have been a chronic problem for years. No need to pretend that's some grand plan...
The Bills WR room has been a work in progress for years, but generally I've been able to see the logic in it. It was a good back in the Diggs/Brown/Beasley day, then seemed rational to put in Sanders. Next year it seemed logical to promote G Davis to a bigger role - I was on board with that (although it didn't work).
I bought in to the thought that Beasley wasn't physically gifted and his production was scheme related and replaceable with McKenzie/Crowder.
This year there the WR room is totally illogical - pathetic - Unless a trade for a good WR takes place. That's why I think it will happen. With a trade, logically you can see Diggs replaced by the new trade, G Davis replaced by a combo of C Samuel/K Coleman, Shakir at #3. I can be on board with that. If the trade doesn't happen, which most people seem to think, this is IMO Beane's worst year - by a lot.
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The denigrating of C Kupp and Amon-Ra St Brown as just great producers seems odd. Comparing them to Singletary doesn't hold up- at least not in the market place- they got paid whereas Singletary did not. There are many facets to being a top tier WR and not all of them are physical. Brings up the we can replace Beasley with McKenzie thoughts.
Not all teams should be following the same program. A team with Brock Purdy is not the same as a team with The Josh Allen. A team with one of the all time great arms should allocate resources to have 2 good outside WRs.
One reason the Bills don't pay big on RBs is so they can put the money into another area. Right now the most expensive playmaker on offense is under $10M.
I agree you don't want a diva, but the top WR for the Bills should not be C Samuel.
Looks like you're just trying to rationalize what you think the Bills are about to do. I think the Bills will trade for a good WR after June 1st. They should.
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2 hours ago, SCBills said:
If you want to see how Coleman, Shakir and Kincaid show out this year before seeing if that move is necessary, then you wait.
This seems like an insane strategy to me. Wanting to see how a rookie shows out? Placing too much emphasis on a rookie early would be a mistake IMO. That is a rebuild. Rookies normally take time to improve and progress - like Kincaid last year for example.
Now having Samuel/Coleman in a split as WR2makes so much more sense for a contending team.
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5 hours ago, The Jokeman said:
Okay, While likely not going to happen but I didn't see anyone name them but two WRs that I would trade for are Garrett Wilson or Chris Olave.
Excellent WRs but I didn't consider them for the following reasons:
1. Garrett Wilson - first, being a NYJ makes it unlikely, second they are all-in for this year so they want everyone. Management may get fired if they don't make the playoffs. The Jets don't seem like candidates to move a good WR.
2. C Olave - he is the main man now in New Orleans. They think they have a chance in the poor NFC South. They got rid of M Thomas.
So, yes, I while I would love to get one of them, I would be very surprised if Beane could pull it off.
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58 minutes ago, SCBills said:
I just don't really see us making a move for another WR at this point.
We have 3 locks and 2 semi-locks on this roster.
They've brought in about 20 people to compete for WR6.
I'm certainly hoping for a surprise trade for Aiyuk or DK Metcalf, but I just don't logically see it.
I think the 6/1 money is likely earmarked for another defensive piece, either on the DL or Secondary.. and if Von Miller & Dawuane Smoot show well in their workouts, maybe Beane just holds onto that money.
I appear to be in the minority and expect a trade (until it happens and you see all the people come out of the woodwork and say it was obvious).
I agree there are 3 locks but none of them are called a top tier WR. The 7th rookie WR taken (in the 2nd round no less), WR3 from last year, and a less than $10M WR2/3 from Washington.
To me, it's logical to get a top WR for 2024. There is this huge hole at WR1 and it will also be there for 2025. So take care of it now -prices just go up. Also if you get one of the young ones you solidify the offense for several years. A real phase 2 reload.
The main reason so many logical posters here think it won't happen is because of what Beane says. Even so far as to elicit the "literally 0% chance" quote. I think a lot of people misinterpret (in a way Beane wants them to) things like "don't expect a trade". It's setting low expectations. People have claimed Beane said 'there will be no trade". I didn't hear this but even if he said it, obviously it doesn't mean no trade ever. There is an implied time period on that. The cap excuse is being exposed for the fraud that it is, Tre money coming in and plenty of future cap space is available.
Even if you expect a trade, the player will be a surprise. I put in my top 4 guesses/hopes- Metcalf/Aiyuk/DHop/D Adams. Any of those would bring Beane back into my good graces.
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8 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:
It should surprise me that someone who has little knowledge of a player would somehow come to the conclusion that he’s the answer to a question they dream up in their mind. But I’ve been around Bills fans long enough to not be surprised by anything anymore.
Only the most steadfast, blind, Bills fans would even consider the Bills WR room as anything even approaching average at this point. The hope of this thread is to go into the details of what might be needed for a trade.
Would the 2025 2nd + 4th plus a salary of a little more than C Ridley's be enough for Metcalf? Would you give Seattle our 2025 1st?
Of the younger ones would you rather have Metcalf or Aiyuk?
What about a 2nd for DHop and his reduced salary (that Tenn has eaten)? It would be a short term 2-3 year deal.
What do you think it would take for D Adams, and what kind of salary would you give him?
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2 hours ago, oldmanfan said:
Well there you go. You tell us you don’t know much about a guy but he’s the answer to you. Because he ran fast on one play. So did Beebe. Was he the “#1” back in the day?
Training camp can’t get here soon enough.
Really, it surprises you that someone might get excited about this team with DK Metcalf on it, even if they didn't watch a lot of Seattle games? Why don't you ask Brady or McD if they would like a player that doesn't take plays off.
Metcalf does have prior 1,000+ seasons. He would be our top rated WR by a lot. That much we can know without knowing much about the guy.
One of the advantages of Metcalf over the veterans is that the Bills offensive playmakers would be set for several years. A start of phase 2, DK Metcalf with new multi-year contract, K Coleman for 4 years, Kincaid for 4, Samuel for 3, Cook for 2, Shakir for 2. That's a transitional reload, not a rebuild.
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1 hour ago, Fan in Chicago said:
At this point it is hope and speculation at best. But if @Einstein's Dog's numbers are even approximately correct , DHop is an acquirable target who can materially assist the team for this and next season with a manageable price tag.
I would like a younger player like DK Metcalf or Aiyuk but it will be a large impact on cap for next few years which will again limit the ability to sign FAs in the coming seasons. Imo, Beane has learned his lessons on that .
My guess is that if we are going to add anyone, go after DHop and slightly overpay from a draft pick perspective. That will provide a solid veteran presence , round off the skill set and allow time for Coleman to mature. We can always draft another WR high next year and keep the funnel full.
But Diggs worked well overall. And it wasn't the trade that set the Bills back it was the extension. A young WR, while somewhat expensive, would make for a real transition to youth on offense that could be here for several years.. DK on a 4 year deal combined now w K Coleman for 4, Shakir for at least a couple more, Kincaid for 4 more, Cook for 2, Samuel for 3. That's not a rebuild, that is a real phase 2.
DK Metcalf has grown on me. A man child speedster. I haven't seen much Seattle though so don't know about his hands. What I did see one time was when a ball was intercepted at the goal line and Metcalf sprinted from the other side of the field and ran the guy down.
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41 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:
If I'm overestimating, you're underestimating. The trading team doesn't acquire the player at no cap hit. That's not the way it works. Depending on contract scenarios, the cap hit may be lower. We aren't on the hook for bonus money. But the hit applies.
I don't know where you got that, but this method shouldn't make much difference for most of the players listed. DHop for instance does have an $18M cap hit but had close to a $10M bonus. D Adams has a $25M cap hit but had a $19M bonus. DK Metcalf has a cap hit of $25M but with a bonus of $30M.
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5 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:
Is Hopkins even available?
We don't know for sure but there are signs point that something is possible with the WR group at Tenn. They added C Ridley with a big contract to the holdovers of DHop and T Burks from last year. Then they just added the FA Boyd.
You would think either DHop or Burks would be moved. DHop has the larger salary and is on his last year of his contract.
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1 hour ago, BillsFanForever19 said:
For the hundredth time - you can't restructure numbers on contracts until after you've acquired them. To acquire them, you need to be able to take on the contract from the other team as is - or the trade won't go through.
This is where I'm saying the '25 numbers are beside the point. We need to be able to fit their current contract under our cap this year for it to work. And the trade isn't just "can you pay the cash salary? Done".
You are looking at these trade options from a strictly Bills fan standpoint. The Titans moving Hopkins makes no sense. Boyd is a Slot. Ridley replaces Burks in the lineup.
Once again - you overestimate what you need to acquire a player. The contract is the salary, or remaining guarantees. You don't have to pay any of the dead cap or outrageous backloaded amounts. Like D Adams has $44M for 2025 and 2026, you do not need the extra $88M to get him. No one is going to pay D Adams $44M next year, that is one of the reasons people think the Raiders would move him.
Another example is DHop, his salary is $8M, cap hit for 2023 $18M. The Bills don't need to cover his cap hit or dead cap. When the Bills get Tre's $10M they could trade for DHop because they have $8M covered, then immediately extend him 2 years, give him a signing bonus, and bring his salary down under $3M.
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22 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:
None IMHO.
My take is the team goes into OTA's and TC to see what they have and how well the offense works at that point.
When you say "None" that is what you think is going to happen, correct? Not what you would like to happen, right?
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6 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:
You're ignoring the cost of Draft Picks we have to sign, the cost of the Practice Squad, the couple million we go into the year with - on top of the MVS signing we just did. If the plan was to do a big trade, we wouldn't have signed MVS.
We won't have 10m or close to it. What we have next year doesn't matter when it comes to taking on contracts from other teams this season. We have to have the cap space as is on the contract for the trade to go through.
Von? He already restructured him/made him take a pay cut for more than was expected and spent that money. Nothing else is happening to Von or his contract. Again, Allen was restructured already. He's never restructured someone twice in the same offseason. If we wanted him to give us more money, we would have taken it then
I've told you why Hopkins is eliminated. He's one of two Outside starting WR's they have. They aren't putting Burks back in there. Metcalf? I don't see him being traded at all. If the Seahawks wanted to move a guy like that, it would have happened by now and they would have drafted a replacement. If the Seahawks were to move anyone, it would be Lockett.
I don't think you understand what happens after we trade for one of these WRs. The Bills immediately restructure the deal - they give a guarantee, a signing bonus, and the Bills figure out how much of the salary they want to have count on this years cap (see DHop 2023 $1.8M salary). So yes having money in the future matters a great deal.
When I referenced Von and Josh, I was refering to the 2025 number and how that can be increased from the $23M. And I believe Josh could restructure again this year if needed- just because it hasn't happened doesn't mean it can't. Might be all part of the set-up, what a surprise, this opportunity just came up, had to get Josh involved, etc.
Hopkins is certainly in play, the new regime added two WRs and DHop is on his last year. Metcalf is a distinct possibility because Seattle would want draft capital to get a QB next year, and Lockett doesn't get them any. Aiyuk is a possibility. Beane is evaluating the options. There could of course be surprise ones like C Kupp or C Godwin because any GM that wanted to move a veteran WR for draft capital would be calling Beane - because although you can't tell it on this message board it is glaringly obvious that the Bills would want a top tier WR.
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13 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:
Ok let’s just do this. Sign 30 WRs and play like flag football. One guy snap it back to Josh, everyone take off, and Josh can throw it quick to who he wants before he gets buried. If we sign enough WRs everyone in Mafia land can get their favorite.
How about the Bills stop signing mediocre JAG WRs and get one good one? Quantity does not make up for quality.
I still think their going to do it. Beane is not an idiot. What GM in their right mind would have their best WR be C Samuel, the WR2/3 from Wash, slated in for WR1 duties with Josh Allen in his prime?
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7 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:
Davante Adams? Ha! Beyond his insane contract - https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39610108/raider-gm-says-wr-davante-adams-traded
What part of 'we don't have that money and we don't have the ability to come up with that kind of money' don't you get? You're one step away from the ole' "I don't care, just make it happen!" and "the salary cap isn't real" refrains.
It simply isn't there and there isn't a way to come up with what it would take to get a Higgins or Aiyuk/Samuel. If there were a path financially, it would require things so extreme cap wise that there's no way Beane would do it. And everyone else on that list falls somewhere between extremely unlikely to be traded to definitely won't be traded.
This is why I made that post. It wasn't that I preferred MVS or Thomas over someone bigger. It's that the option was something like that or nothing. Which is why he made the move for MVS.
D Adams has a $17M salary, that's not insane. That was an old article linked- and how they will be keeping their own - J Jacobs. How'd that work out. Let's not take these sound bites as gospel.
Just because you keep saying we don't have the money, doesn't make it true. We are getting $10M for Tre on June 1st. Have you ignored the other thread on how the Bills are scheduled to have over $23M in cap in 2025? That is before some moves that could be made - like Von or restructure Josh. Potential finances seem there to me.
I don't know why you only think Higgins or Aiyuk/Samuel are the only ones. Why eliminate DK Metcalf and D Hopkins? And that article certainly didn't eliminate D Adams in my mind.
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6 minutes ago, HappyDays said:
The MVS signing makes me think a trade before the season is not in the cards, unfortunately. At the trade deadline I think is a real possibility though, when we would only take on approximately half of the player's cap hit this year. If Beane saves all of Tre's $10.2M that will be a sign that he is keeping in-season trade options open.
This is our locked in WR room:
Coleman - X
MVS - Field stretcher
Shakir - Slot
Samuel - Gadget/weapon/Z
Hollins - Depth/special teams
The 6th spot will be one of the rejects we've added or one of our late round/UDFA rookies from last year.
We need several best case scenarios to come to fruition for this to work. Coleman has to be ready to hit the ground running and be our primary outside WR. Shakir needs to prove he can take on a much larger target share. Samuel needs to stay healthy. The 6th WR needs to be better than Trent Sherfield.
If all of that happens plus Kincaid takes a step plus Brady proves he is a top 10 OC, we have the capability of being a top 3 offense again.
Assuming at least one of those outcomes fails, maybe we get Hopkins at the trade deadline.
It is disappointing to me to see them add another JAG. It does seem to decrease the odds of adding a substantial WR.
My hope is the addition is because the trade WR is of the D Adams or DHop variety, and the need for speed in the WR room makes sense.
I am still struggling with the idea that the on-paper best WR for the Bills heading into the 2024 season is the WR2/3 from Wash, C Samuel.
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1 hour ago, BuffaloBillsGospel2014 said:
I'm not sure why people keep listing Deandre Hopkins, the Titans are giving QB Will Levis everything he needs to be successful before his contract hits.
D Hopkins seems like a likely trade partner because Tenn just added FAs C Ridley and Boyd. They already had DHop and T Burks.
I think they have new management that just added guys they want. Also, DHop is on the last year of his deal, if they don't move him they will get nothing for him later. They could be looking to move T Burks but the market for him just may not be there.
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10 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:
I'm not judging it one way or another; just trying to find a reason for the interest, and this would seem to be one given his stated position on the final-game-of-the-season issue.
My attempt at trying to find a silver lining in this is to think that they are close to signing either D Adams or D Hopkins and realized they still need an outside speed option. Then you would have an excellent mix of skill sets and the WR room comes together.
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1 hour ago, mannc said:
Brandon Aiyuk remains a better option than any of the guys you mention here, and he’s reportedly available, especially with the Niners just having double-dipped at WR in the draft. I recognize Aiyuk is somewhat of a pipe dream given the Bills’ cap situation, but he’s better than all the guys mentioned here and he could probably be had for the second-round pick we got for Diggs.
Aiyuk would be an excellent candidate. I don't think our cap situation is as bad as many make it out to be. But with Aiyuk I do worry about how much he thinks he is worth. I think he would be expensive.
If Beane could bring Aiyuk in, it would change the outlook of our WR room dramatically.
THE ROCKPILE REVIEW - Receivers are a Dime a Dozen
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
No, that's not the barometer for Beane's performance. Beane supplies the talent to the coaches. The Bills almost didn't make the playoffs last year and I wasn't blaming Beane.