Einstein's Dog
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Posts posted by Einstein's Dog
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3 hours ago, FireChans said:
Just FYI, we have -6M in space next year
Cap space is fluid, especially a year out. Remember the thread from tranplantbillsfan "$23 million in CAP in 2025 if no more moves as of 5/14".
The point is a team should be able to afford an expensive QB, expensive WR1 and expensive LT. That has been a gold standard strategy that the Bills have applied.
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25 minutes ago, Sierra Foothills said:
According to ESPN's Jeremy Fowler, Aiyuk wants a deal that would exceed the one recently given to Amon Ra St. Brown. The Bills cannot pay a WR $28-30 million per year and they certainly won't give up multiple high draft picks for the "privilege" of doing so.
Any credible opinion about the Bills wide receiver situation should not include a mention of Brandon Aiyuk.
Why can't the Bills pay market rates for a top tier WR? It's been an excellent working strategy to date. Just because they shipped Diggs out doesn't mean you abandon the winning strategy. The Bills have adopted an inexpensive RB room, in part to allocate funds to the WR.
With a backloaded contract a WR like Aiyuk could be done. The Bills currently have very inexpensive offensive playmakers under contract for several years so having one expensive playmaker should be able to be budgeted. It had been in the past. Prices for good WRs is on the rise.
Lets not shut down reasonable discussion of the Bills wide receiver situation just because you have a preset bias. You believe the Bills won't add a WR and can't afford it under the cap. I don't fully buy into Beane's off-season words, think the strategy all along has been to add one, and believe it is entirely possible cap-wise.
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26 minutes ago, mrags said:
If you really think you’re better off having a bunch of Joes at WR then a top 10 guy then I don’t know what to tell you. There’s plenty of replies I could have made instead of what I did. But at the end of the day none of it makes a difference. In the end plenty of people were angry that Diggs dropped that pass last year which could have won us the game. Instead we want to replace him with a bunch of joes that aren’t even as good. And I’m perfectly fine getting rid of Diggs. But the fact is they are trying to replace hundreds of targets from last year with a has been head case, a guy that drops more balls than Davis, and a completely unknown rookie. Adding more young talent is not and wouldn’t have been a bad thing.
I'm with you, I'd much rather be looking at what Franklin could be than giving chances to the retreads of Claypool or MVS (and lets face it Hollins was never supposed to be a starting outside WR).
For me, if they bring in a top tier WR via trade it all makes sense. Then you don't take two in that instance because it would conflict with the path/increased role for Shakir. The backup for K Coleman would be the versatile C Samuel - while not the same type of player you can adjust the offense until he develops.
If they don't add a top tier WR, I am baffled and disappointed at the new direction.
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34 minutes ago, NewEra said:
Those first 2 guys would be mortgaging our future in a big way. If you don’t see that, I can’t help you.
the other guys I would’ve been ok with…..but you’re acting like they were available. Rumors are rumors. None of them switched teams. They are all where they started the offseason
Mortgaging or Investing? Getting a real WR1 for several years is team building. Getting an Aiyuk or Metcalf is not some band-aid, it's obtaining a bedrock core piece of Phase 2 of Josh's career.
You're okay with D Adams or DHop who are much older? Those would be fallback positions IMO. They would solve the 2024 problem but would have 2026 questions.
I don't know which ones are really available, just showing there seem to be options. It's Beane's job to bring one in. SF is acting like they are moving someone (drafted 2 WRs and just gave $10M guaranteed to J Jennings).
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49 minutes ago, NewEra said:
KC fans were saying the same thing about Veach when they traded Hill.
which top tier WR would you have added that wouldn’t have radically changed our cap/draft picks?
If Brian Thomas Jr is the answer, I get it. He’s the only guy that slid to a spot where we wouldn’t have had to give up the farm…. But I’m not so sure he’s a WR1 either. Sure he gives us a better deep threat, but I don’t think he’s that type of difference maker for 2024.
who else could we have gotten that would’ve moved that needle?
I would add any of Metcalf/Aiyuk/Sutton/D Adams/DHop.. No to BTJ.
The addition of one of those takes the CB1 and safety and changes the way defenses will play us. This helps the rest of the offense which I think is pretty solid. The addition also moves down Hollins/MVS/Claypool.
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11 minutes ago, NewEra said:
And adding a star WR (at the expense of other positions) makes it that much more likely?
Trading for Aiyuk or another big money WR would equate to going all in. That’s not going to happen. Salary cap squashed those hopes imo.
Imo, this is a debate is more about Beanes preference to keep the cap in a manageable position as opposed to going all in. I don’t think this season, considering our current pass rush, would’ve been the right time for that. If von miller comes out of the gate firing, I could see Beane making a move mid season if one is available
I think adding a top tier WR changes the whole evaluation of the off-season offensive moves for the better. It takes the offensive talent to a different level.
I believe the moves made allow for a WR and it would not be all in. They have the room for this WR for several years. There is an incredibly young core of offensive playmakers.
Lets not forget that cap management is part of Beane's job. If he really opts to do this radical of a rebuild in Josh's prime, he should face the music.
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26 minutes ago, FireChans said:
How many teams win without a top 32 receiver?
It seems the majority of Bills fans do not think a good WR will be added. The love for Beane is deep and they cannot admit that it would be a huge stain on his resume if we go into a prime Josh season without a top 32 WR on the roster.
On the flip side all the off-season moves come together into an excellent plan with just this one move. It's the linchpin move. It's the plan behind moving Diggs, why he didn't take any of the mediocre FA WRs, part of why he didn't double dip on WRs in the draft, why he didn't initially take all Josh money.
Apparently, I am the only one who sees this. IMO Beane can continue to be a great GM, these are all things I would have done - I was rooting for them. But to not finish it off would result in a huge downgrade of my evaluation of Beane.
June 3rd is Monday. It's coming. These type of ridiculous excuse threads will roll off the pages.
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5 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:
Theoretically, yes, they could do all that. They could bring in an expensive guy like an Aiyuk or a Metcalf.
But they've shown they don't want to. If they'd wanted to open up space they could just have moved most of Diggs' cap hit to next year. They didn't. The folks on here who always prefer kicking cans down the road are not in line with what Beane and the brain trust want. Nor with what is best for the long-term interests of the team.
They were deeply constricted this year, and they want to make that a one-year thing rather than something they have to deal with every year.
They're far more concerned about the 2025 cap than many on here are.
The above "they've shown they don't want to" is where I disagree with many here. What I see is a short term blip, over the long haul they do want good WRs. Their strategy is the sound strategy of paying a franchise QB, DE, WR1, LT - and there had been CB1. Just because they temporarily moved out their WR1 doesn't mean to me that they totally revised their strategy.
Yes, the Bills had cap issues, but I don't think their idea is to take a year off from being contenders because of it. That would be a huge mea culpa and would be a massive stain on the resume of Beane. I don't think he ever intended to do that. It looks to me like Beane has fooled a lot of people.
IMO, getting a top WR would not be kicking the can down the road. It would be in the form of a thought out plan. That plan has the room for around a $30M WR1. Look how inexpensive all the rest of the offensive playmakers are - and that they are covered through 2025 - Josh 4, K Coleman 4, Kincaid 4, Samuel 3, Shakir 2, Cook 2 with backups Davis 4 and Knox. The 2025 cap should not be a problem, it can handle a top tier WR, looks to me like that is a good fit.
But why wait until 2025 when you can get a WR1 now. So if you get one for 2024 I would think the Bills would do it quickly after the Tre money comes in. Because if they want Metcalf or Aiyuk you want to get them before J Jefferson's contract hits which should reset the market. And if the Bills wanted to go big and get J Jefferson they would want to do that early also to put Miami (T Hill) and Cincy (J Chase) into chaos. Plus the Bills would need every available fund prior to being able to bring J Jeff's $19.7M cap hit. I'll be getting up early on Monday June 3rd.
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49 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:
I think Beane is a good evaluator overall, but he’s painted himself into a corner a few times. It bit him with Elam. But he did something that good GMs do. He knew Elam was a big risk so he hedged and took Benford in the same draft. That’s worked out very well and mitigated Elam not working out (yet).
And yet this same GM in an eerily similar situation with WR they went a different route. Took the 1 WR and did not back it up in a deep WR class.
To me, it's another sign they have planned all along for the early June trade. My theory is the FO was thinking the other outside WR is Coleman backed up with the versatile C Samuel. That would have been my plan, and what I consider something a good GM would do.
SF who is supposedly not in our desperate situation took a 1st round WR and backed it up with a 4th rounder and just signed their WR3 from last year ( J Jennings) to $10M guaranteed over 2 years. Normally that would give rise to some speculation but their GM says they have no plans on trading any WRs, and as I've been told countless times, our GM says we are set. Darn.
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1 hour ago, hondo in seattle said:
Thanks, Alpha. This actually makes me feel better. While I wasn't sad in the slightest when Dorsey was canned, I didn't jump on the Brady train either. As a fan, it felt like the O didn't get any better overall when Brady took the reins and the passing game actually got worse. I may not have been considering the strength of the defenses Brady faced. And part of my feeling of disappointment may have simply been me hoping for more. Over the past few years, we've had some beautiful streaks of consecutive 30+ point games. I wanted Brady to give me that. I still do.
I think/hope some of the Brady changes were to adapt to the personnel he had. I think Brady wanted to move away from the dependence on Diggs + Davis and rely more on the Kincaid/Shakir/Cook as the core of the offense. Brady did well with limited tools he had IMO.
IMO, the strategy should not be to keep Brady working with a limited personnel but instead try and improve on the WRs. With this strategy you give Brady a better top tier WR, replace Davis with eventually K Coleman but while he learns you cover for him with Samuel. You slightly increase Shakir's involvement, at pretty much the level he had the second half of the season. And keep Kincaid at or a slight bit more than the second half of the season also.
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1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:
I expected a few of these comments, and there have been some.
However, I find it interesting that the general tenor of comments from people here is that the Dolphins are idiots for spending so much money on wideouts. Someone said Hill and Waddle will make more than the entire Bills wide receiver room. It's probably true. The question is whether Miami's offensive production will be THAT much better the Bills because they have these two guys. And the answer is, no.
Whatever. We've had that discussion, and it was fun. We don't need to have it again.
I, like many here, was glad to see that Miami did. I don't think they have the right quarterback, and it's really dumb to spend money on receivers if you don't have a quarterback. It just limits what you have when the right QB comes along. And because I don't think they have the right QB, I'm hoping that they give him a big contract. Then they're in cap hell and don't have a QB. That would be great.
A couple of comments for you. Yes, I believe you will hear it for a while, but in an instance above they were quoting the article by Florio. Florio's article came out after yours and was eerily similar.
The person above didn't say Hill and Waddle, they said just Waddle was more than the Bills WR and TE combined (I'm not sure why they didn't throw in our inexpensive RB room but maybe they didn't have the $5M to spare). In my world that is another clue that a WR is on the way, the Bills entire current offensive playmaker budget is incredibly inexpensive - and is for 2025 as well. It could easily support one top tier WR IMO -and they should do it!
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4 hours ago, Mango said:
Just from a cap % standpoint, I don't think the expensive WR/QB pairing is sustainable. As it stand now there hasn't been a QB with a top tier cap number and WR with a top tier cap number to ever win a SB. Pundits talk all the time about how important it is to maximize rookie QB contracts. Now WR's on second deals are getting $25M per guaranteed?
I am glad the Dolphins are making this decision.What? T Brady had M Evans and C Godwin - both expensive (along w Gronk)
M Stafford had C Kupp and OBJ
I think it would be wise for the Bills to invest in a good WR.
Some teams are now doing the expensive QB/WR1/WR2 route like Philly. I don't know how they're going to do it.
But I agree the Dolphins are going to be in trouble soon.
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19 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:
I’m not seeing how any team justifies that kind of money to a WR. We all know they’re a dime a dozen. 😁
Yeah and to think many expect the Bills to not have any part of getting a top WR. Like the price will be coming down. Or they're not important.
The market is full of comparables now, the amount a DK Metcalf or Aiyuk should get won't be too hard to figure out.
These teams could be hurrying to get deals done because they fear the June 1st surge will notch up the level (see Collins and now Waddle).
They may be right. It's not out of the realm of possibility that the Bills give J Jefferson a record setting backloaded contract in a huge trade. A 1st, 2nd, and 4th might get it done.
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13 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:
It's not "apprehension". It's a matter of it could be any of a number of 4 different WR's.
You discount Keon Coleman and his potential. You obviously weren't a fan of him in the Draft process.
Then there's Curtis Samuel. A guy who has produced at a high level for a number of years, playing with QB's nowhere near on the level of Josh Allen. He was signed to a 3 year, 24 million dollar contract - with 15m in guaranteed money. This kind of investment denotes a decent role in this offense.
Again, to add another WR of this level would be to push one of these 4 to 5th in targets on the team and a minimal role. There's only so many balls to go around. For example, 5th in targets for this team last year was a total of 45 targets all year. One of these guys would be denoted to an average of 2 and a half targets total per game. None of these players should be or will be relegated to such a role.
He's betting on potential and development over established stars. You obviously disagree with this course of action, but that is *clearly* the course.
Like it or not, and it's fair to not, the WR Room is set. We only kept 5 WR's last season (in large part because Kincaid is a WR) and we have 5 WR's that are locks. The likelihood of what you not only hope for, but expect/say will happen, is as likely as it was for us to move up in the Top 10 of the Draft. It's just like last season. It's fair to say you feel he hasn't done enough. But what he has done (just like Harty and Sherfield last year) IS done. And those guys aren't going anywhere.
Some responses:
The question wasn't who will be the top WR, the question is who do you think is the top Bills WR now, going into the 2024 season? You avoided answering it, and it's easy to understand why, an answer of C Samuel or a second round rookie is embarrassingly bad.
You are wrong when you say I wasn't a fan of K Coleman. I like the pick, just not as an immediate replacement for Diggs or Davis. I think K Coleman needs developmental time.
You say the WR is set and it is *clearly* the course. Your definitive tone is just your bias on what you think is going to happen. Just like when you were shown the error of your "can't do it for cap reasons", your fuzzy math on targets is full of errors. And 6 WRs is a possibility, as well as one of your "locks" not making it (ie OJ Howard).
I'm surprised by how many people think Beane will have done a good job if the top WR in 2024 is scheduled to be C Samuel.
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On 5/13/2024 at 11:57 AM, Buffalo_Stampede said:
Justin Jefferson and CeeDee Lamb.
With the continued news of J Jefferson and the rumors of trade still going on, I probably should not have overlooked your suggestion.
J Jefferson was not extended by Minn, rumors floated that Minn wanted to move up and get Naber. J Jeff probably wouldn't mind leaving Minn and the rookie QB . Florio has stated Minn could be open to trading him if the offer is right. The Bills have an excellent trade history with Minnesota.
Neither Florio or the Connor Orr article mention what the right offer is exactly. The Bills would need to unload draft capital, have around $20M to take J Jeff on, and then give J Jeff the biggest WR to date.
All are theoretically possible. Give up a 1st and 2nd, have the Tre money + Josh restructure + Oliver restructure, then backload a massive contract for about 6 years.
Wouldn't that be something.
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6 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:
What happened to the "Coleman will have a hard time starting the year" quote is that he said it only one time during his intro press conference. And to that, I think @HappyDays put it best in another thread when it comes to that quote:
Since making that statement, he's confirmed Happy's sentiment by calling Coleman on at least 3 separate occasions "The X". That's his role on the team and that was Diggs' role on the team.
Will being this team's X make him the #1 WR? It really depends on your definition. If your definition is the go to option or the WR with the most yardage - time will tell on that. But if your definition of WR1 is the starting X WR - then, yeah, Keon Coleman is WR1.
As for the question of who I think the #1 WR will end up being, in terms of yardage and production, I don't have a Crystal Ball. But I imagine it will be one of Keon Coleman, Dalton Kincaid (a Big Slot WR in reality and a TE in name only - like Von Miller is a "LB"), Khalil Shakir, or Curtis Samuel.
That uncertainty is something else that Beane has also spoke of multiple times since the Draft. He's said on a number of occasions that he wanted to create a room where week to week, that #1 option could change. Where the ball is spread around and there isn't just one Diggs like player that the Defense keys in on.
And that comes to another problem with your theory. If they were to trade for a WR (unlikely at this stage IMO for a number of other reasons, as I've discussed) - that would mean that one of Coleman, Shakir, Kincaid, or Samuel would likely be no better than option 5 when it comes to targets and reps.
And with what they've invested in that group, how they want to develop and evaluate the younger players, and the skill/production some of them have shown already - I absolutely do not see that happening.
Again, you're calling out people for thinking they know how Beane operates (mockingly calling them "resident Beaneologists").... then claim to know how Beane is going to operate. It's pot and kettle.
My question is who do you consider the Bills best WR heading into the season? Not X or WR1, just the on-paper best WR the Bills have going into 2024.
I can understand your apprehension in answering this question, because it doesn't bode well for Beane at this time.
My point in saying Beaneologist is when I bring up actions that I consider signs, people respond with words from Beane. And those words are selected from a vast pool. And much like the Happydays example the ones they consider applicable are the ones they want/think are going to happen.
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28 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:
Beane has said on multiple occasions that Keon Coleman IS the X on this team. That was Diggs' role. Like it or not, that's what he is this year. Like a Rookie starting QB, I'm sure there will be some growing pains. But he has said that's what he is already and what he's been brought here to be.
Even if there is some growing pains, down the stretch, the passing game ran through Dalton Kincaid and Khalil Shakir - with Diggs and Davis providing little to nothing. They're still here and they have good reason to believe they'll be even better in Year 2 and Year 3.
Then they also brought in Curtis Samuel, to compliment Kincaid, Shakir, and Coleman. All of these players are expected to play big roles. To add another would be to have one of those 4 players play a minimal role with minimal snaps. I don't see that happening.
All our resident Beanologists and their interpretations of the quotes according to Beane. What happened to "Don't expect Coleman to be the starter week 1" or "I would never do a rebuild as long as I have Josh Allen as my QB". With so many Beane quotes, I'm glad we have people who can definitively interpret and explain the contradictions that arise.
Who do you consider the top WR on the Bills roster right now for the 2024 season?
Because it really wouldn't change my overall mantra from before, which was: "Beane is a great GM, a great GM would never have C Samuel as his top WR" to something like "Beane is a great GM, a great GM would never count on a second round WR, 8th WR taken, as his expected top WR" - which should really bring home why I don't think he is done.
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3 hours ago, BarleyNY said:
There are restructures that the Bills can still make to add cap space this season, but I don’t see them doing that. They’ve certainly had ample opportunity and have punted. I’ll adjust my expectations when they adjust their strategy.
My hope is they passed on the lesser options to wait for this June 1st opportunity and go big!
I think it has been their strategy for some time to have an inexpensive RB room so they can pay their top WR. They are just switching who the top WR is for the next few years.
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4 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:
Nobody said things cant change...but there is a difference of "expecting" the less likely and just "wanting" or "wishing" for it.
Not sure how you can say that...I mean it's already been confirmed he will play the X WR1 role for this team, and this year. And not just by Beane either. Trading down has nothing to do what role he was drafted to be. They already said there were multiple guys they felt good about when they made the trade down...the trade down was literally Beane's plan coming into the draft to pick up a 3rd which he both coveted and got. That move is in no way the indication of what role they perceive the player drafted to be, and I am not sure how one can even draw that conclusion.
Not only is Samuel not playing the X WR1 role, he may not even out snap Shakir who Beane, McD, Allen, Palmer, Moulds, and others have all been gushing about.
So it's really about they didn't draft the WR1 you wanted so you are assuming the WR1 they did draft in Keon is somehow not going to play WR1 for us.
There were no large FA WR's out there that made sense for the Bills after Diggs was traded. We took on a $31M dead cap hit moving Diggs this year. It was always going to be done through the draft to keep the cap hit down because $31M was also already tied up in the "WR1" position this season.
Beane didn't set out to "replace" Diggs and Davis. That is where a lot of you are just backwards on the WR situation. They didn't go out and try and find a Davis and Diggs clone. He went out and looked to build a diverse room with size, hands, route running, toughness, etc.
When they selected Keon, it was to come in and compete to be our WR1. And thus far, he has done nothing but impress on and off the field to everyone around him. Beane, McD, Allen, Brady, etc have all publicly stated he is playing the X, the WR1 role on this team. Now...if he goes out and stinks up camp or preseason and leaves doubt he can handle the role, then sure, Beane may change course and rethink the situation. But today, he is here to be the WR1, they have made that pretty clear.
Yeah, the plan was to draft his replacement...which he did.
No doubt, Beane left some ammo in the chamber if needed. Every good GM would, you never know what may come up.
What does that have to do with anything? That capital has less value right now than it will after the season.
This just points further to the likeliness of doing so this year (when we have $31M dead cap on Diggs alone) makes less sense and why a move in the future makes more sense. Again, something Beane has also stated.
JAGs at RB? You mean Cook who just put up over 1200 yards and had a bunch more yards and receptions on top of that? And that was with Brady only being here the final 7 games. Davis isn't a JAG either...he is a rookie, many had as one of the better RBs in the draft (I had him 3rd on my board). So not sure how we have JAGS at RB...and sorry, Keon is not a JAG either...he is a rookie. For you to declare a guy who was not only taken in the first 33 picks, but had the Pats trying to move up into the first to get him as a JAG before taking his first NFL snap is just ridiculous. He may prove to be a JAG...but he also may prove to be a top 10 WR over his career. He is a rookie...nobody knows what he is.
Kincaid put up 81 receptions as a rookie...so he is a JAG too? You know he is a receiving weapon for Allen too right? Shakir led the NFL in YPT, Catch rate, and was a YAC machine to the point his nickname by many is Deebo Lite. And that was again, with Brady only being here 7 games last year and the playoffs...same stretch where Shakir led the team in receiving.
That is a lot of young talent to just blatantly label "JAGS"...You and I have very different definitions of JAGS.
And no disrespect, but what qualifications do you have to make that determination for this roster over Beane? That was your opinion based on some highlight films you watched, not on a season long study, interviews, etc of these players or from the perspective of what Beane wanted to add to our locker room.
FWIW, I was a big McConkey guy too...I had him as WR5 on my board and Keon as WR6. But fit wise, I thought Keon was a better fit for what the Bills needed in their WR room over McConkey.
Not if Keon proves to lock down the WR1 role...and there in lies the issue. You have conclusively condemned Keon's career to be no better than a WR2...so much so, that you can't even accept that he will even play the WR1 role this season despite all his coaches and GM saying he will. And look, we don't know the future, Keon could be best as a WR2 or even a total bust in general...or he could be the next DeAndre Hopkins as well. Thats the thing, its always foolish to decide a rookies fate (good or bad) before he ever steps on a field.
And I am not worried about the contracts of other WR's because I think its more likely Beane would attack the WR position again via the draft, especially with the extra capital we have next year, if the WR room proves to be a problem this year.
End of the day...we had a top 3-5 guy in Diggs for 4 seasons and got past the 2nd round once. I for one am looking forward to seeing this group together on the field.
Appreciate your thoughts. A couple of differences:
1. You expect much more from K Coleman than I do. You think in his rookie year he is slated for WR1 duty. I think a lower bar is more reasonable. Kincaid was a first round selection and the first TE taken, and he needed developmental time. K Coleman is a second round pick and the 8th WR taken. K Coleman is also young and relatively inexperienced. A thoughtful plan seems to me to be having K Coleman's role this year to be expanding throughout the season, much the way Kincaid's went.
I also don't see why you would think K Coleman is more of a fit than McConkey if the plan was to have them start from day 1. It seemed by most that McConkey was more pro-ready. I also don't see how you can say it's confirmed that Coleman is WR1, there's a long way to go before camp.
2. Let me rephrase - the RB room is incredibly inexpensive. They have a late 2nd rounder, a 4th rounder, and some inexpensive vets. The money should go somewhere and IMO a WR would make the strategy a success.
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3 hours ago, Tuco said:
Not sure I made my point. I was responding to your statement - "For example you need around $15M to bring in an Aiyuk or Metcalf before you can restructure."
Aiyuk's cap charge is $14+ million. Once we get the $10+ million for Tre, we will have $12ish million. We don't have to go out and find $3 million more in order to bring in Aiyuk then restructure him. They can agree to the restructure and make it go into effect as soon as the trade is made. So if they agree to a restructure/extension with Aiyuk that comes with a, say, $7 million cap charge for 2024, they can just do the deal, his new $7 million cap charge just goes against our $12+ million. If they have all that in place prior to the trade, they don't have to get up to $15 million just to bring him on then restructure.
I think as others as pointed out that you do need some capital on hand to do the deal. It is a little murky (to me at least) exactly what it is, one excerpt said cap hit minus bonus, another article said $13M would be needed on hand for Pitt to get Metcalf. Pretty clear $14Mish is enough to bring Aiyuk on board. It would take close to $20M to get J Jefferson which would take pulling all the levers for a short period of time.
It makes the June 1 date with Tre money coming in exciting. Because then it should be easy to get the needed amounts for many of these potential WR targets. And the Bills would probably want to do it when the funds are available before they spend some of it on other things.
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2 hours ago, GoBills808 said:
you can basically do this w every team in the league
And many of those other teams would be embarrassed to list a 4th round rookie and MVS, Hollins. or Claypool. Those should not count.
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6 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:
I mean Beane has already flat out said he isn't trading for a WR, so not sure why you still "expect" it rather than more just "wish" for it. He even mocked the WR obsessed crowd in a recent interview saying "You know its legal for the TE's to catch passes too right". So I am not sure why anyone would be "expecting" it at this point...sure anything is possible, but to "expect" something that really seems unlikely at this stage is just an odd stance to me.
We drafted our WR1 in Keon, everyone on the team from Allen, McD, Beane, to guys not officially with the team like Palmer, Moulds, etc have all raved about about Shakir, and we signed Samuel to a 3 year deal to go along with Kincaid who had 81 receptions as a rookie despite the fact there was a WR on this team who saw 160 targets. The real questions are the battles behind Keon, Shakir, and Samuel. Both Hollins and Chase getting high early praise, and MVS brings speed and championship experience...so will be fun watching this battle in camp, especially Chase who has the talent to start on the boundary opposite of Keon if he gets his career (and head) back on track.
While Chase is saying and doing all the right things now, its still very early and we need to see how he handles having to grind and work his way both onto the roster and into a role as camp and preseason go on. Will he carry the same positive attitude and work ethic if he isn't moving up the depth chart fast enough is a real question for him. But if he does, man this offense could be wild with big guys like Keon and Chase on the outside, and Shakir, Samuel, and Kincaid just battering and attacking in between.
I don't listen intently to Beane, he says a lot of things and people may need to give him a break. Will you really say he was lying if the Bills trade for a WR? No, you will go back and look at everything he said from a different angle and realize there was more than one way to look at it. Just like many did when they surprisingly brought in Von or surprisingly let Diggs go.
Keon is not intended to be the Bills WR1 in his rookie year - that's crazy talk. They traded down twice before taking him for Pete's sake. A much better plan would be for Keon to split time with C Samuel and eventually take the role over - opposite a top tier WR.
Reasons I now expect a trade for a WR are the following:
1. I was of the opinion for several months of this "Beane is a great GM, a great GM would never have their top WR be C Samuel during a year in Josh's prime". With that in mind I was rooting against trading up for one of the big three in the draft,
2. No large FA WR acquisition - I didn't want one of the more expensive mediocre FA WRs, keeping in mind number 1 above of course.
3. Only took one WR in the loaded class. I was hoping for just one, keeps a spot open without infringing on Shakir development. The one taken (Coleman) was never intended to be Diggs replacement - see above, he is taking the G Davis role over with C Samuel. Once again this is great in conjunction with number 1 above - otherwise what are they doing?
4. Beane let Diggs go - I feel he did so with a plan in place, he wasn't goaded into it. No GM's plan is to replace Diggs with C Samuel and a rookie.
5. Josh restructure and Tre money, gives available funding for just such a move. We all somewhat guess on the specifics but I trust Beane knows the details.
6. Draft capital - extra 2nd and extra 4th
7. Incredibly young, inexpensive, and cap friendly offensive playmakers for 2024 + 2025. No more money needed on O for a couple of years. People say we would be cramped capwise - who cares everyone on offense is accounted for through 2025.
8. Recent strategy has been go cheap in RB room for investment in WR1. They continued to go even cheaper in RB room with Davis as RB2. The strategy was solid and there should be no regrets so far. The idea that the Bills will adopt a new strategy and go with JAGs at RB and WR blows me away.
9. Took K Coleman over McConkey - if they needed/wanted pro-ready McConkey seemed like the choice.
10. Without a WR1 the need will be there again next year. Prices are headed up, J Jeff and J Chase coming up. Do it now and save.
Mainly the reason I expect it though, is all these moves are what I would have done, and I would be bringing in a trade for a top tier WR. All these moves I was rejoicing in would have to be re-evaluated. Without the trade for a WR it looks like a litany of errors out of Beane, not what I would expect.
I understand I'm in the minority. But "literally 0% chance" is a little harsh.
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8 minutes ago, Tuco said:
With permission, the restructure can be agreed to before the trade and made to go into effect at the same time the trade is official. It's generally what's happening when teams allow a player to "seek a trade." They're allowing the player to work out a new deal with a team before the trade is agreed to.
Right, they would have something worked out pre-trade. Certainly there would be a large guarantee and a signing bonus. The whole thing would be well orchestrated in advance of the trade.
It's having the money to handle the initial transfer that makes the June 1st date with the Tre money relevant. And they may need to do it while they have the full pot of the money available.
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2 hours ago, billsfan89 said:
The Bills will on June 1st have 12.7 million in cap space. But functionally they won't actually have 12.7 million to go out and spend. You have to factor in the following for the Bills cap.
- Rookie pool - Rookies haven't been officially inked that's going to cost the Bills about 2 million.
- Practice Squad- Yes the PS counts against the Cap you gotta reserve about 4 million for that.
- In season emergencies - Most teams reserve about 3 million for in season emergencies Bills usually go in at that range.
So the Bills actual functional salary cap space after adding in those 3 costs is going to be at about 3.7 million. The Bills will have about 3.7 million in space to actually play with after setting aside rookie/PS/Emergency money. Which is a solid amount of space to work with.
Now if the Bills really want more cap space for some big trade they can open up a bit more space than the 3.7ish million they are likely to have. The following restructures are on the table.
- Josh Allen - Convert the remaining amount of his current year and the Bills can open up 6 million in additional space.
- Ed Oliver - The Bills can convert the remainder of his base to a bonus and open up 1.3 million in space.
- Von Miller - He has a very small base salary that can be converted over and saves 1.2 million in space.
- Matt Milano - Converting his base salary to a bonus can open up about 2.1 million in space.
That's about 10.6 million in space that is available to the Bills. However, I think the Bills will for sure not want to convert Von or Milano both are older and coming off injuries. I do think they would if the right trade is there they will consider doing Josh and Ed's deals to open up about 7.3 million in additional space if something "too good to be true" is out there or the team is just desperate.
I think the Bills aren't likely to go out there on the vet free agent market. They signed a lot of vets like Smoot and MVS already later in free agency and if the Bills need a big time DL or WR addition their current workable space of 3.7 million will go farther at the trade deadline. So I think their best "bang for their buck" is going to be at the trade deadline where they can take on bigger contracts for less money.
TLDR: Bills after Tre's money hits will have about 3.7 million to actually work with once you take into account signing rookies, practice squad and a 3 million dollar reserve for emergencies. They can convert some other contracts to open up more space but that's unlikely but an option they can do. Most likely the Bills will just hold onto the money and see what is there at the trade deadline.
But after taking in a WR the FO can restructure and play games with the cap. For instance after having the funds to bring in Metcalf they could then restructure his contract to a cap hit to around $7M (see DHop 23 salary of $1.8M or Diggs cap hit in 2024 of $6M).
So in your example above, they restructure Josh, get the money to bring in Metcalf. Immediately restructure Metcalf to around $7M cap hit and the Bills have $10M+ left ($10M Tre + $6M Josh + $2M to start - $7M Metcalf).
You don't wait until the trade deadline, the number 1 seed is important. Also if you wait you might not have the funds available for the initial surge needed to bring someone in. For example you need around $15M to bring in an Aiyuk or Metcalf before you can restructure- as best as I can tell, those are the rules.
Gronkowski, Kelce, Graham, Ward - Why do fans want want a Randy Moss type?
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
I didn't address the draft compensation because your complaint was about cost. The Bills have an extra 2nd + 4th for 2025 so they have plenty of ammo.
I think the Bills could offer up a 1st + 4th for either Metcalf or Aiyuk. They just fit the Bills current roster like gloves- bring the entire offseason moves together. It would create a young Phase 2 on the offense. Metcalf/K Coleman/Shakir /Samuel w Kincaid + Cook/Davis what a new core for several years.
If Beane can't swing it for either of those 2, I would offer a 2nd to the Raiders for D Adams. Get him on a 2 year deal. If that doesn't work DHop for the late 2nd for 2 years.
As to your earlier question to someone else I was worried about the doubling down with Franklin. He was there in the third. That would have been the rebuild way to go IMO. If the Bills don't do a trade for a vet WR, I will be wondering why Beane didn't do that.. At the time I was rooting against it because it would have signaled to me the end of the WR search.