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mbs

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Posts posted by mbs

    Something to keep an eye on: Point differential?

    in The Stadium Wall Archives

    Posted

    24 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

    ?  we played the dolphins early last year but it was more of us beating FitzMagic (White interception and Hyde return were 2019); the other dolphins game was the last game of the season and that didnt come down to the wire.  

     

    I am in general disagreement about McD getting less aggressive with a lead.  We had this discussion a lot last year with the 3rd quarter woes.  But it was less coaching as we continued to call pass plays at the same rate.  Just some bad luck in execution that we turned around later in the season. 

    I said earlier seasons, but yes, earlier season.

     

    They weren't the only games where they seemed to chew clock with two score leads. It was more apparent to me on defense than offense. The priority seemed to be keep it in bounds and under ten yards. This could have been a perception based on an opposing team throwing more, but it was more noticeable under McDermott than ever before.

     

    I'm not speaking of halftime adjustments I'm talking about what looked like a soft-prevent that started mid to late fourth quarter in two score games. It drove me nuts, but every time it seemed to work out. I considered it praiseworthy at the time that they played the odds even though it led to nail biters.

     

    Something to keep an eye on: Point differential?

    in The Stadium Wall Archives

    Posted

    Apart from the fact that McDermott mentioned he would make a change toward aggressiveness in the wake of hail murray, there were a couple dolphins games in earlier seasons which came down to the wire. One ended with a Hyde onside kick recovery and one with a Tre White interception. In both of those games it was absolutely clear that McDermott was playing the clock with a huge lead. There were others which weren't so obvious. 

     

    I have a haunch the analytics informed a lot of this and truth be told it was wildly improbable that the dolphins even got to the point where a big play was needed, but after AZ, they stopped relying so much on the calculated odds thing (until the AFC Championship.)

    3 Year Anniv: "If Josh Allen succeeds, the Bills will have outsmarted basically all regular humans and the entirety of math itself"

    in The Stadium Wall Archives

    Posted

    I had watched every "all the throws/runs" for Darnold, Rosen, and Jackson plus most of them for Baker and some for Rudolph. I didn't bother watching Allen because the numbers nerds convinced me he was terrible. I might have yelled a bad word at high volume when he was drafted.

     

    Then I watched his video and I could at least see what the team was seeing (some truly great stuff with too much sloppy). But it wasn't until YardsPerPass on twitter suggested watching Allen's film and then (re)watching any of the others to compare what Allen had to deal with. It was the best football fan depression cure I ever got. I slept just fine after that. (Of course, it was maybe four in the morning at that point.)

     

    I'm a homer so I quickly came around and expected him to work out, though I never expected the loft and touch pass to happen. As it has, I could not be happier.

    • Like (+1) 1

    Do WR’s hate Lamar Jackson ?

    in The Stadium Wall Archives

    Posted

    I was impressed with him at Louisville. He had a bunch of drops and, like Allen, his bad throws were really bad. But the vision he has in his run game was present in the passing game too. Where he could lead a guy deep or shallow he chose the best leverage every time. And most of his passes weren't just good, they were pinpoint.

     

    I don't know if it's a lack of NFL arm strength or Roman, but even in his MVP season, I was disappointed. I'd love to see him in an offense with a shorter passing game to see him hit some shallow stuff in stride. But even with his Roman-limited NFL tape, it's pretty clear, he's never going to be a top end passer.

    Sammy Watkins in Buffalo

    in The Stadium Wall Archives

    Posted · Edited by mbs

    3 minutes ago, Logic said:

    I just don’t understand where anyone who buys the idea of Watkins potentially signing here thinks Watkins is gonna line up?

     

    Why, at age 27, after being a critical part of the Chiefs offense, would he come here to be WR5 and rarely see the field, 

     

    It makes no sense. None.

    He grew up a Bills fan and he's insane.

    (I'm skeptical, but I'd love to see him back to replace Roberts and/or McKenzie.)

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    Bills sign Matt Milano to 4 yr, 44 mill deal with 24 mill gtd

    in The Stadium Wall Archives

    Posted

    19 hours ago, mbs said:

    I mean say he gets 7 this year with a significant bonus  if he starts 12 games (or some corresponding number of snaps or tackles). Since he started 11? last year, that bonus is "not likely to be earned" and thus would be accounted for in the next season when they presumably have much more money. That way they can add more ramp-up to his year over year which I think is otherwise limited. (LIke you can't pay min one year 20 mill the next.)

     

    I was on the fence about him at 11m (11-12 happy whatever they did) but this deal looks really good to me regardless of the bonus structure.

     

    11/16=69%  They shifted a half million to next year.

    Bills sign Matt Milano to 4 yr, 44 mill deal with 24 mill gtd

    in The Stadium Wall Archives

    Posted · Edited by mbs
    add definitions

    15 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:


    i don’t think they are planning on saving money this year by him not making it to 12 games.  He’s no more likely to miss that many games this year than any of the remaining 3 years after this

    That has nothing to do with anything. He is set to earn 7m regardless. If his playing time bonus is over 11 games, then it will be hit against next years cap because he didn't do that last year so it's "unlikely to be earned."

    Had he played all 16 last year, they would have to pay out* the bonus now because "likely to be earned" is leveled against the current cap.

    Everyone expects him to finish the season.

    It has nothing to do with expecting him to play fewer games to save money.

     

    * edit: they would have to count it against the cap now, not pay it out.

     

    https://frontofficenfl.com/2020/05/25/2020-nfl-cba-explained-contract-incentives-ltbe-nltbe/

    Bills sign Matt Milano to 4 yr, 44 mill deal with 24 mill gtd

    in The Stadium Wall Archives

    Posted · Edited by mbs

    4 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

     

    there's no chance they wrote the deal this way

    Well I was looking for clarification.

    According to SalC, the deal includes playing time bonuses. If the playing time exceeds 11 games, they will be billed next year.

    But I'm not sure that "not likely to be earned" is based solely on previous year or on some sort of average.

    • Like (+1) 1

    Bills sign Matt Milano to 4 yr, 44 mill deal with 24 mill gtd

    in The Stadium Wall Archives

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Mr. WEO said:

     

    point is they wouldn't be offering all that money.......an also structuring it assuming he plays less than 75% of the games to save them  cap space. 

     

    They are offering him that money expecting 16+ games per season.  

    They are assuming he will earn the bonus by playing all the games. They just want to push some of the money into next years cap. You are hung up on the language of "not likely to be earned." That is a term which refers to previous performance, it's not a judgement call. We all think he's likely to earn the bonus.

    Bills sign Matt Milano to 4 yr, 44 mill deal with 24 mill gtd

    in The Stadium Wall Archives

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Mr. WEO said:

     

     

    Why would they think he would not play even 12 games this season---and still sign him to a 44 million dollar 4 year deal?

    Both they and he expect him to play more than 12. That's why this works. If they pay him 9m + signing, that's two mill less to work with this year. If they make it contingent on something he failed to do last year, then they don't have to pay till next year. "Not likely to be earned" is some sort of nfl speak for didn't do it last year.

    Bills sign Matt Milano to 4 yr, 44 mill deal with 24 mill gtd

    in The Stadium Wall Archives

    Posted · Edited by mbs
    typo, clarity

    6 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

     

    hard to say...

    I mean say he gets 7 this year with a significant bonus  if he starts 12 games (or some corresponding number of snaps or tackles). Since he started 11? last year, that bonus is "not likely to be earned" and thus would be accounted for in the next season when they presumably have much more money. That way they can add more ramp-up to his year over year which I think is otherwise limited. (LIke you can't pay min one year 20 mill the next.)

     

    I was on the fence about him at 11m (11-12 happy whatever they did) but this deal looks really good to me regardless of the bonus structure.

    • Like (+1) 1

    Update: Beasley Out for Miami game. Beasley Injury Thread

    in The Stadium Wall Archives

    Posted

    4 hours ago, Virgil said:

    I can't read through 29 pages of this.  What exactly is his injury?  I only keep reading "leg injury"

    This is just lazy. The point of the thread is to provide answers not get them.

     

    To wit: Beasley has a medial or anterior hyperextension or partial tear of something medical and doctory. This is a week to week injury that typically requires several hours of rehab maybe more.

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    Week 15: Bills at Broncos

    in The Stadium Wall Archives

    Posted · Edited by mbs
    link and flattery

    @Zerovoltz was setting the record straight in that Broncos fan Josh Allen thread. He's absolutely killing it.

     

    I think he starts here:

    https://www.orangemane.com/forum/orange-mane-discussion/orange-mane-central-discussion/2720603-josh-allen/page5

     

    Seriously, I can't think of very many people who aren't bills fans and aren't paid to cover the bills with that kind of knowledge. Like not even Simms.

    • Thank you (+1) 1
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