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WideNine
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Posts posted by WideNine
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I think Daboll had a better handle on how to use Gabe's skill set.
It went completely off the rails when they tried to use him more as an option in the flat where he struggles getting separation in those tight quarters.
He also had some untimely drops this season.
I can understand the frustration as this is a contract year for Davis that happens to coincide with a deep draft at the position and Gabe is not having a significant role in the game plans.
Players have to think about their careers too, so I get it even if I think family members should keep behind the sidelines and hit the brakes on airing out grievances on social media.
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Old school accountability.
Refreshing approach from Brady as ultimately the performance of the offense and its players falls to him and the coaching staff.
Both the credit for things they have improved, and the areas where they need to put in more work.
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ratio smatio 😁
Your not an Allen hater if you see trends from your OB that are hurting the team - just someone who looks at negative trends and perhaps want to dive into why that is happening rather than close your eyes and accept on blind faith it will just trend back into something better without any changes.
For me, the turnovers I had issues with were more about the turn-downs on the easy dumps and completions that would move the chains. Instead, Allen was forcing the ball downfield to well-covered receivers and tighter windows. It resulted in more INTs, Allen holding the ball longer, and our star QB taking shots from defenders rather than getting the ball out of his hands more quickly.
Also, the trends from later last season and the first half of this season made me wonder if he understood the play designs Dorsey was scheming up, if receivers were running the right routes, were we leaning into our run game enough to tap the brakes on pass rushers, and if Allen really knew where his reads & outlets were. There was also enough confusion on plays that it pointed to an offense that was not being designed, communicated, and understood very well from the top down.
I think we have seen better results and more balanced play from Allen since the org moved on from Dorsey. Now we see Allen doing what he does very well, and also taking the quick wins that lead to more RAC, and the offense being able to move the chains and sustain drives which gives our defense some time to catch their breath.Remember only a season or so ago we actually went through a few games without punting? Between the second half of last season and the first half of this season not only were the turnovers trending up, but also the offensive 3 and outs and the need to punt more.
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It is the age we live in where it is trial by online media before the facts surface.
In fairness the NFL and College as well have a very bad reputation for burying crimes committed by players or seeing star player crimes transformed into punitive slaps on the wrists. I think back to the Ray Lewis incident where he and his crew got into a fight and the two victims apparently sprouted spontaneously fatal stab wounds, but no one was found guilty. The guy was inducted into the player hall of fame in 2018.
Organizations also have to take into consideration their image so if you have a lot of bad publicity surrounding a player you can easily replace, then it makes sense to replace that player. With Araiza I think Beane took the right approach with the narrative from OBD - that what was going on was a distraction for both the player and the organization and they were parting ways with Araiza to allow the situation to be sorted and settled by the player.
Beane did that without weighing in on the guilt or innocence of the player. With something like this with Von, I think things do get murky when you have domestic fights that turn public and result in accusations being levied. The Bills mafia may be jumping the gun because we are already frustrated with how much cap this player takes and that he has not been much of a factor on the field....and agree with the comments that Von is not contributing very much on game days.
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I feel like Brady has the offense clicking.
If they can stop the bleeding on defense late in games and eliminate the STs gaffes and get a bit more equity in the officiating, they could.
One game at a time... as they say.
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On 11/27/2023 at 9:35 AM, Warcodered said:
To be fair to Bass he missed one long kick in poor conditions, it really ***** sucks and people are building a narrative against him, but that ***** happens, nothing he can do about a blocked kick.
He was shanking some chip shots earlier this year and that did cost us.
I feel like he is hitting them better now.
Kickers have these ups and downs, but Bass has been pretty consistent for us overall.
With so many tight games where we let teams close on any lead we have late, those points lost on kicks get magnified.
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1 hour ago, Bob Jones said:
I agree that the refs were literally wearing green outfits for most of the game, and were incredibly incompetent, and IMO, it did affect the outcome of the game, but....
...on the horse collar / grounding play, if you watch the video closely, the Philly defender did NOT have his hand inside the collar on the BACK of JA. He obviously did have his hand on the inside of his collar in front, above JA's chest, as he ripped the jersey there. So, the ref seemed to say in the post game presser that a horse collar must be administered on the back side of a player to be a foul. Is the latter true? I had thought that a hand inside the collar, anywhere around a player's head (360°), is a personal foul.
Also, the grounding part of it did seem legitimate; JA should have just taken the sack. And in actuality, he should have just thrown it away before he was dragged down.
Hochuli's interpretation does not align to the description or how a horse collar applies to a QB outside the pocket as Allen was.
ARTICLE 16. HORSE-COLLAR TACKLE
No player shall grab the inside collar of the back or the side of the shoulder pads or jersey, or grab the jersey at the name plate or above, and pull the runner toward the ground.
This does not apply to a runner who is in the tackle box or to a quarterback who is in the pocket.
Note: It is not necessary for a player to pull the runner completely to the ground in order for the act to be illegal. If his knees are buckled by the action, it is a foul, even if the runner is not pulled completely to the ground.
Penalty: For a Horse-Collar Tackle: Loss of 15 yards and an automatic first down
IMO - just another crappy Hochuli call followed by typical hubris to cover the gaffe.
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Once I saw the horse collar on Allen right in front of the "Umpire" official and we got hit with an intentional grounding I knew what the rest of the game was going to be like with that crew.
Oh well, is what it is and I was not too disappointed in our offense and that is one positive with Brady at the helm.
This defense cannot adjust and close out games. They go in with a good plan, but seem to quickly start bleeding scores in the 3rd and 4th quarters.
Seen it enough that it is a trend. Some of that is just on the players not executing on 3rd downs.
Saw Dodson setup to spy Hurts on a 3rd and long and instead of closing to make the play he was flat footed and locked into the turf while Hurrs took a good angle to get to the sticks.
Another 3rd and long the d-line does their job hemming Hurts in and he just lobs it up for grabs in the EZ and we have two defenders there that were in position to defend it, but had their backs to Hurts and allowed the receiver to get depth and highpoint the ball.
Not sure what to think, but there were times defenders were put in the right position to make plays and just didn't.
Like most things it is somewhere in the middle. Our defensive staff has to get better at counter punching, and the players have to be better or we just needed to have our healthy starters back in the lineup.
Not happening anytime soon so here we are with the record we have.
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1 hour ago, T master said:
So they are like CNN, MSNBC & others sensationalizing or imbelshing stories to make people hate others & believe things about other folks that aren't completely true ?
SAY IT AIN'T SO !!
I would agree that the quality of journalism has tanked across the board in favor of anything that can generate click/ad revenue.
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35 minutes ago, Just Jack said:
Commanders are the only ones able to stop it, and they got a fumble at the same time.
Nice you can even see one WA defender on his knees and elbows before the snap where they normally get their traction and push.
Basically not even trying to get lower from a stance just get hit the ground at the snap.
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Poor billionaires indeed.
...and every time I have to jump through a zillion hoops to get my kid's tiny dose of meds at the pharmacy now with all the "controlled substances" hoops and confusing rules, I think fondly and thank the Sacklers and their Purdue pharmaceutical business that pushed oxycontin products like a Mexican drug cartel.
Create an opioid epidemic and as long as they had the $ to pay a 6 billion dollar settlement no one does any jail time.
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53 minutes ago, HoofHearted said:
Josh definitely wanted to go to Diggs initially (he had a 1v1 with a linebacker), recognized it was Hole coverage and knew that the backside double Posts would beat the Cover 3 look as Kincaid was running the collector route (inside post to occupy the Safety) and Shakir would have inside leverage on an in-breaking route vs the corner. Just good recognition and a great job going through his progressions - understanding the coverage and what we were doing offensively that would attack that coverage.
Also want to shout out Diggs and Davis on the earlier touchdowns. Neither of them had the sexy stat line, but they both did a lot of the dirty work. Diggs picked Mosley on the Cook touchdown in order to allow Cook to be wide open, and Davis sold the hell out of a crack block on the flat defender on the touchdown to Johnson completely eliminating him from the play and then hustled down field to shove and shield the corner who was covering him vertical so that he couldn't make a play on it either. HUGE play that will go completely unnoticed by the public.
Noticed them doing a lot of the dirty work too which (for me) softened the narratives that we should have gotten more production out of our #1 and #2 WRs.
Game within the game that shows a lot of unselfish heady play by our receiving core to do the things needed to open up plays for guys that don't normally show up as much on the reception stat sheets.
That is needed against a defense that has the kind of players and schemes that can do a good job taking away your primary receiving options.
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34 minutes ago, nucci said:
How are we catching them at a perfect time? They're 9-1, won 4 straight coming off big road win in KC. This won't be a "letdown" or "trap" game for Eagles
It's possible with a short week and emotional Monday night game there us a let down, but not banking on it.
The Eagles seem to do something well that we have struggled with, playing down to the wire and finishing games.
They have a lot of confidence and a great record, but I think every team is beatable this year and many of their wins have been close - we will see.
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4 hours ago, Don Otreply said:
The truth!!
This board can’t handle the truth!
GO BILLS!!!
Truth... I think we do OK with that gritty stuff and the kicks to the sprinkler, it is unbridled optimism we would have no clue how to handle.
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19 minutes ago, HoofHearted said:
For what it’s worth I don’t recall ever seeing us run into a numbers disadvantage while going through the film. Again, I think this has more to do with people not understanding what is considered “the box” when we’re in condensed sets.
Not sure about counting guys in the box.
What I recalled was Dawkins having 2 defenders with outside leverage and I thought he was reaching to block the closest one so I think we were trying to run an outside zone and we ran into the unblocked defender.
Did not seem like we had a hat on a hat in those few scenarios.
Admittedly, I am trying to go off memory. Would be curious about our runs when Dawkins is uncovered.
What weakside runs do we have the most success with. I thought I have seen some stretch runs to that side that have been blown up with backside pursuit.
As always appreciate the insight and that you are looking at the tape.
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23 hours ago, HoofHearted said:
THE TRUTH ABOUT THE BILLS RUN GAME
There's a lot of misconception about the Bills run game this season, most notable is the notion that the Bills are not successful running from the gun, that the Bills Zone Scheme run game is horrendous, and that the Bills should never run from gun in short yardage situations. I took the time to break down every run concept from Week 1 through Week 10 in order to take a deep dive and flesh out what's real and what's just national media and message board noise.
Through the first 10 weeks of the season it appears as though we hang our hat on 5 different run concepts. Three of those concepts being Zone blocking schemes (Mid Zone, Inside Zone, and Duo), one being a Gap blocking scheme (Dart), and one being Man blocking scheme (ISO). We've run each of these concepts at least 20 times on the season. In total we've run 21 different run concepts - 8 Zone (Mid Zone, Inside Zone, Duo, Sprint Draw, Split Zone, Zone Read, Q Draw, and Outside Zone), 9 Gap (Dart, Counter, Pin & Pull, Buck, Long Trap, Power, Q Dart, Q Counter, and Trap), and 2 Man (Iso and Base). All of our top 5 concepts except ISO average over 4 yards per carry but, more importantly, all of our top 5 run concepts have a Success Rate above 65%.
Success Rate (SR) is a measure which adds context to our rushing data, something yards per carry does not. We define success rate as a play that gains at least 40% of yards required on 1st down, 60% of yards required on 2nd down, and 100% of yards required on 3rd and 4th down. Dart, which also has the highest yards per carry average of 6.83 yards per carry also has the highest SR at 75.9%. This is clearly our most successful run concept. Dart has been primarily run out of Gun (27/29 attempts), and when run out of gun averages 7.07 yards per carry while only averaging 3.5 yards per carry while run from under center. Similarly, Inside Zone (our second most successful play at 66.7% SR and 4.48 ypc) has an 81% SR when run from Gun as opposed to 45.5% when under center.
The Bills are Not Successful Running from Gun
Overall, this season we've run 83 times from under center for an average of 5.06 yards per carry and a SR of 54.2% and 123 times from gun for an average of 4.5 yards per carry and a SR of 61.0%. So we are more successful when running from the gun than we are running from under center. When you look at the splits the only time we've been more successful running from under center than gun has been on 2nd and medium (4-7).
The Bills Zone Scheme Run Game is Not Good
Overall, Zone and Gap have the exact same SR (57.4%). Man schemes have the highest SR at 66.7% which is to be expected because it's run most in short yardage situations where the yardage to gain is easier to attain. Specifically our Inside Zone and Duo concepts, which were ripped in some video that made its rounds around here a few days ago, are both averaging about 4.5 yards per carry or better and a SR of over 60%. The notion that these two schemes have been detrimental to our run game are just false.
The Bills Should Never Run from the Gun in Short Yardage Situations
In Down and 0-3 yards to go situations the Bills have run from under center 18 times for 4.89 yards per carry and a 66.7% SR while running from gun 30 times for a 5.03 yards per carry average and an 80% SR. Specifically looking at 3rd down situations the numbers still favor running from gun though the samples are admittedly small from under center (Under Center: 3 for 2.67 and 66.7% SR | Gun: 15 for 2.87 and 80% SR).
Overall Thoughts
It's clear to me from watching the film and going through the data that we have been successful running both out of gun and under center this year. All these rumors being spread by national media and message board members that we should not be in gun or should not be running zone schemes are just rumors. Obviously, scheme is very dependent on what you will see from your opponent, but the data shows that the Bills are establishing a clear identity as to what they want to do in the run game and where they think their strengths lie as a team. What was frustrating was going back and seeing how many times drive stalled out because we refused to run the football even after statistically successful run attempts. This has been one of the biggest components in why our offense has struggled over the last however many weeks.
Thanks for this breakdown.
I have thought that the Bills usually do a pretty good job running the ball and mixing it up. The issues have been how they have oddly abandoned it for long stretches when they are winning up front and gashing opposing teams.There were times we got stuffed or TFL, but seemed we ran straight into number disadvantages and never checked out of those plays.
Suspect those had more to do with the lack of effective in-game offensive staff communication that McD indicated had improved this last game.
Regarding runs from under center, as you mentioned I would like to see more near the goal line before drawing any conclusions, but think there is also an advantage of Allen potentially sneaking on those too that you lose from shotgun.
Allen's good use of play action from under center has been more my contention for leaning into it.He hides the ball better, and tends to hit the back foot on his drop and be decisive with getting the ball out on schedule...
They don't have to feature it, but mixing in a bit more in I think would be beneficial.
Excited to see how Brady uses our run playbook as I already really like his use of motion creating space for getting the running backs more involved in the passing game.
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38 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:
It’s not rule thing it’s a talent thing. I don’t understand why this is such a topic of discussion. What the Eagles do is great because of who’s running it. It’s the same as Tom Brady sneak. Brady is probably the only QB in history that runs that quick sneak and it works 99% of the time. No one else even tries it.
I disagree.
I don't think it is rocket science and it is less a talent thing and more physics.
They have 2 300+ lb O-Linemen pushing Hurts and defenses are using 190-200 lbs LBs and Safeties to fill and get push on their DL.
The DL will be at a disadvantage every time.
It will work till they change the rules, or teams find the right counter punch to nullify the gimmick.
The NFL has always been this way aka "sugar huddles" and "wildcats".
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15 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:
You can’t.
Show me where.
https://operations.nfl.com/the-rules/nfl-ruleb
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5 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:
You can’t sub more bigger players because the Eagles keep their normal WRs out there.
Have to play man on the receivers. You are subbing LBs and/or S's who are just ramming into the pile from behind any ways.
The Eagles are bringing in two extra OL players, you are just matching.
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It does pay homage to football's rugby roots.
Looked to me like KC still had safeties and light-weight defenders backing their bigger DL players when they probably needed to have those guys backed up by a few other big bodies from the DL or from the OL to give them an equal push.
Of course you don't want to see players hurt, and there are some dangers to that play if a player gets caught the middle the wrong way, but it would be interesting to see how that counter strategy would pan out.
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It was a good retort handled with class.
And McDermott showed that he and his family are committed to this area and the team.
Now if the reporter had phrased it like, "you're heading back to Philly where you have some history...", he may have gotten a bit further along.
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2 hours ago, Virgil said:
I sure hope so.
Offseason needs to be a WR with #1 potential. He can be our number #2 and learn from Diggs for the first 2 years and then transition to our #1. Diggs, Rookie, Shakir, Kincaid would be a perfectly fine offenseAgree.
One of the deeper drafts for WR so it would make very little sense to pay any kind of a premium to retain Davis, when we could land a WR with a good shot of having more upside that we would have on an affordable rookie deal.
I think that WR2 position he occupies is upgradeable and they need to be willing to let Gabe walk.
I like our drafted players to go on and have decent NFL careers, but much like Edmunds, you can't sign everybody, nor should you.
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4 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:
Kincaid is blocking a lot better them most of us thought he would. There were a couple of great examples in yesterday's game.
Never been a fan of the draft takes that say things like will "never" be an able blocker before a player has had any time working with NFL position coaches that can coach up that ability a bit.
He has good balance and is quick off the line and has shown some good positioning on reach blocks on the edge, granted his technique still needs work as he has also given up some quick inside rushes when trying to set those up, but you can see progress. Needs some work on his picks/rubs as he mauled some defenders earlier this year, but all those things are things I feel he will correct quickly.No club would be looking for big time inline blocking ability from Kincaid, that is not what we need from him as a great pass catching threat. Just holding his own long enough to spring the occasional outside zone run vs wider alignments or being able to reach/block and help seal the outside edges on stretch runs, sweeps, swing passes, screens, etc...
Really liked that smart blocking he did downfield on that Shakir TD - just throwing a bit of a hip check on a defender to throw them off their angle of pursuit.
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17 minutes ago, Beast said:
Yeah, obviously every team is different but I’d see how the Jets slowed the Eagles down and try to emulate to the best of their abilities.On offense? We will need to win the game on the arm of Josh Allen. I don’t see the Bills running the ball effectively. The plus side is I believe the Bills can do just that…throw with a lot of success.
Dunno if it is so much their scheme as it is their personnel.
The Jets can generate a lot of pressure and get sacks with just their front four vs 5-man protections which then allows their very good pair of LBs to stay clean and just play fast to the ball or cover the flats/RBs/TEs.
They also have a solid secondary with very good CBs and safeties.
The flip side of having that kind of defensive investment is it likely came at the expense of having a crap O-line, pedestrian QBs, and limited offensive weapons.
Of course they did fork a ton of money over to Rogers, but I wonder how much of a beating he could have taken behind that line if the Bills had not knocked him out of the lineup game 1.
Probably pretty happy to take his checks and safely watch his backups get pounded from afar.
Is Diggs done?
in The Stadium Wall
Posted · Edited by WideNine
New OC and game plans that have really featured hitting our RBs and TEs in the flat or on screens.
They have tried to use him on some of those screens, but results have been mixed.
The timing and ball placement on those is a bit different from how we normally use him so I think there have been more drops and times when he and Allen don't seem to be quite in sync than we would like to see.
Brady probably has to figure out other ways and use of motion to get Diggs into favorable match ups as you can see defenses make it a priority to take him out of the games.
I don't think the change in production is much more than that - adjusting to being used differently.