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WideNine

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Posts posted by WideNine

  1. 13 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said:

     

    SUPER curious if this hypothesis actually has merit. Is bad rushing defense correlated with increased games missed by defenders? Difficult to parse directly, seeing as decimated defensive units would likely have difficulty stopping the run (and/or the pass). Which came first kind of conundrum. But I'd still like to look into what the numbers say about your claim here...

     

     


    It's a theory.

     

    I edited that take a bit, but I have been really curious if there is a correlation between a poor rush defence (particularly yards before contact) and injuries to the back seven. I think it makes sense when those lighter defenders are having to take on free blockers and runners with a head of steam that they will have a higher probability of getting injured.

     

    I also feel athletes tend to get injured when trying to do too much and playing out of position which is what happens when you have a poor run defence when defenders are getting blown off the line and out of their gap responsibilities. Guys end up trying to compensate for other guys being out of position or blowing assignments. When LBs and safeties are kept clean they can make tackles the way you want them to - having a clear path to the runner, and being able to square up on him vs fighting through a block and awkwardly trying to make an arm tackle.

    It will go a long way for this squad staying healthier if they can get the right guys in their run-stop packages and get back to trusting each other to do their 1/11th.


    All that being said, our run defence did an excellent job today and I think our DTs did a much better job today anchoring and being gap sound... will see what the all-22 says.

     

     

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  2. 16 hours ago, Psautcsk said:

    OL trade capital for a wide receiver 


    They have been grooming those OTs for a while and still have VPG getting ready to step up in the middle at some point, and Grabel who was recently activated off of IR that looked like he was very promising at RT.

    I don't envision a WR trade involving OL players, but acknowledge that the Bills need a true X receiver at the boundary that is difficult to cover one on one.

    For some reason I just don't see them pursuing one via the draft at least not very early with how thin the class is and how long it takes to get a WR up to NFL speed - more likely they will keep looking for FAs that have the upside or are proven commodities if they can free up the cap for it.

    We will see, but I think this year's draft is more loaded with quality LBs (size, speed, instinctual hitting gaps and tackling)  and we happen to be thin and undersized at the position with Milano likely not being brought back next season. I have to think they need to really evaluate how they have been using Bernard at ML especially vs the run (it looks like Shaq was playing ML this game and we can see it works better so maybe McD and Babich are thinking the same thing). I don't think ML is a good fit for Bernard's size and skill set and using him there they keep breaking him.

     

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  3. 2 hours ago, DaVinci said:

    Gotta hand it to Bosa. Gutting through the injured wrist and making a game changing play.


    Playing with one hand - and he was chasing down plays all day. 
    Bosa is a dude.

    May be time for tough love at OBD. They like to pamper their own, but they need to make sure the guys they roster can stay somewhat healthy and contribute and be willing to cut ties with those that cannot.

    A re-think at DT and LB may help too when they are looking for roster additions via the draft and FA. Getting some bigger bodies up front that can anchor and LBs that have the physical traits and attitude needed to play the run may also help keep our smaller DBs and safeties from taking on so many guys coming at them with a full head of steam and getting injured.

    There may be a correlation being near the bottom of the league in rush defence (especially yards conceded before contact) and having so many of your back seven defenders getting injured each season.

     

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  4. 2 minutes ago, Simon said:

     

    Love him or hate him, Sean McDermott is a quality DC.


    Their young guys on the d-line are having to grow up in a hurry. Saw positive plays from Solomon, Walker, and Sanders.

    Bishop continues to flash what we were hoping to see from him. Taron is either injured or just spent at slot as I see they are subbing Cam Lewis in more often and I don't think there is that much of a drop off and I think he often seems more willing to click and close to fill and make tackles.

    I know we have not often gotten our worth out of older big-name signings, but who doesn't think that Joey Bosa has pretty much kept this DL from total collapse this year while they have been trying everything to fill the other gaps. Basically playing with one hand - earned it.

    On offense folks may want to see a wide open game, but with two backup OTs in the game going up against veteran pass rushers in Watt and Highsmith, they did the smart thing getting the ball out of Allen's hands quickly and leaning into their running game. They also did not have either receiver that can actually get open in Kincaid and Palmer starting the game so no real downfield threats to use.

    Also, I really liked how decisive Allen was taking off and taking a good angle to the sideline and the marker today. He did not set himself up for sacks or getting hit by holding the ball and looking downfield for options that have been few and far between this year - just not there and the best thing to do is take a good angle to the sideline and pickup what yards he could.


    Thought that late hit on the slide definitely should have been called, but Allen did a good job eluding the rush on several occasions and breaking tackles and I think that was because he was a lot more decisive about I am just going to take off now.

     

    Tough gutsy win - go Bills!




     

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  5. Romo seems totally checked out of this game - guess he does not like a game that features running the ball when you are starting two backup OTs against Joey Bosa and Highsmith.

    I don't like the Bills offense playing the game in a phone booth, but they do not have a lot of downfield stretchers with Kincaid out and not sure if Palmer is healthy so the game plan made sense to protect Allen and not expose those guys to having to hold blocks for a long time against those pros.

  6. 41 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

    It would be nice if the OC was capable of anticipating obvious difficulties, and then building a rational game plan to counter or at least mitigate them.

     

    IMO there are coaching types and Brady may be more of the scheming kind of coach and less the intuitive adapt during a game kind. 

     

    Getting the plays in late, injured or winded offensive players staying on the field when they should be subbed, needing to have that cushion from the action of calling from the booth, and effective adjustments usually happen after a decent break in the action at the half all seem to point to that kind of game processor.

     

    Those guys look like geniuses when their game plan works and look lost if they are not. 

     

    Just means the HC has to know their strength and surround them with the right people to mitigate the in-game adjustment gaps.

     

     

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  7. 5 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

    Van Den Mark was shaky at best last week. Several times he got beat badly so am hoping he improves on the left. In terms of right side options it will be interesting to see how Anderson/Lundt might do and/or if call up Clayton. 

     

    Is Grabel definitely out?

     

    They opened up his practice window, but I guess it makes sense that it would likely take a few to get back up to speed.

     

     

  8. Van Demark has always been better on the left than the right where they used him last week, so hoping he settles in and plays hard. I know they like the idea of having swing tackles that can play either side, but to me he was always more natural with his kick step and hand usage from the left.

    We will see...

    Grabel was showing a lot of promise before the injury so hoping he is ready to go.
     

    I expect that it will take a quarter or so for both to settle in, but Brady cannot go all turtle and just run the ball. Perhaps some early play-action on 1st down and some scripted plays off what their DBs are showing press/man vs playing off them/zone.

    I have not seen much critique of Shakir - I guess there was some fallout from last week's fumble, but he is another veteran player that I feel just is not playing as well as last year or at full speed. Something just feels off, so wondering if he is 100% back from the high ankle he suffered in camp. Seems to have straight-line speed as we witnessed in that long TD he had a few games back, but a lot less shake and bake in tight quarters to elude tacklers or create separation on routes that we are accustomed to seeing.

    Even the most stubborn among us must realize that teams are doing a better job with their spy-mirror players and closing on Allen when he escapes the pocket. His sacks are up and his positive plays out of structure are less frequent. He has less time to drift and direct scramble drills so I think we would all breathe a sigh of relief if Allen just threw some of those away if no one is open, or took a good angle towards the sideline, picked up a few positive yards, and got out of bounds without getting clobbered.

     

    That hit from behind last week gave me a mild heart attack. I have no doubt that if teams did not have to respect what Allen brings to the field, our offense would look putrid without him. 

     

  9. 29 minutes ago, FireChans said:

    The distinction is that we intentionally favor the defense in terms of investment strategy in spite of the offense, then run an offensive strategy to specifically benefit the defense.

     

    If the Bills had drafted a bunch of good weapons around Josh the last 4 years, the performance against Houston would be unacceptable. But they didn’t. 

    Tom Brady actually left the Pats and won a Super Bowl elsewhere when they surrounded him with garbage and they had an inglorious playoff exit.



    No argument here about investment on the defense and the juice not being worth the squeeze. I am thinking of early round busts and free agent signings that have been poor deals that have locked up too much cap for too little return.

    Beane did invest in Diggs, and Allen of course and a few other offensive early draft picks like Kincaid and Coleman.

    Coleman was a high draft investment, and the jury is definitely still out. Beane has room to improve his early round defensive pick success rate, although he does have a knack for finding gems in the later rounds. If Hairston can stay healthy maybe we can put him in the success column - like what I have seen so far.


     

  10. On 11/22/2025 at 10:06 PM, BADOLBILZ said:

     

     

    Boat race?   The offense only scored 12 points!😂

     

    And they turned the ball over twice in their own territory, effectively gifting the Houston offense 6 points.

     

    And yet Allen still had the ball with a chance to win the game at the end.    Just like the last 2 KC playoff losses.  

     

     

     

     


    If I had seen your post earlier, I would not have echoed it - yep, the offense was not lighting it up last week.

    Quite the lack of complimentary football to go around with our Bills this year. Injuries, schematic mismatches, poor execution, middling talent in areas where we need exceptional talent for the roles, and defenses having our number for the things that had been working well for us.

    Not sure what they can do about the defense other than pray that some of the rookie talent can stay healthy and grow into their respective roles - the rest is filled out by a few aging vets and guys that should be on the practice squad not starting every game.

    The offense I expect will be better this week. For one thing I expect and hope that the OL comes out fired up and playing to the whistle - they were taken to the woodshed by the Texans and some of that was just effort and some of that was the Texans DEs were just better. The effort part is fixable.

    If Kincaid is back, then things magically start to work again as he creates conflict and mismatches for the ways teams want to play us and that opens up other things on the field for Allen. Having Kincaid and Palmer both healthy and playing at the same time is a luxury we have not seen a lot of this year considering they are probably the best receiving options on the roster that can create route separation.

    When those guys start producing things open up for Cook - so here's hoping that boat race idea comes to fruition this week.





     

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  11. The Bills heavily invested in TEs and really leaned into the 13 personnel and running the ball under Joe Brady last season to limit the sacks, hits, and turnovers and running for his life that Allen was doing under Dorsey.

    Why they go out and get receivers they are not going to schematically use effectively is beyond me, but I think they were hoping for a true X receiver when they drafted Coleman who could compete and win at the boundary against man coverage when we were in more 13 personnel looks and that never surfaced.

    Samual seems injured, underused, and a schematic outlier since he got here. I felt the same way about Moore and to a degree Palmer. Brady seems ready to admit to needing some more schematic flexibility away from the 13 personnel looks and was trying to use more 11 and 12 personnel and some empty sets last week, but then the OL craps the bed in pass pro against the Texans and our receivers struggled getting open (with any consistency)

    Not a whole lot of identity for this unit when I think we all felt pretty good early when our running game was carrying them.

    They needed to make room and although I think Samuel has arguably done less with more time than Moore, they paid him too much and the cap hit for letting him go is larger - 2.5 vs 12+ million dead cap hit.


     

    Curtis Samuel (Buffalo Bills)

    Contract: 3 years, $24 million (signed in 2024)

    2025 Base Salary: $6.91 million

    2025 Cap Hit: $9.07 million

    Guaranteed Money: $15.02 million

    Dead Cap if Released in 2025:

    Pre-June 1: $12.23 million (negative savings of about $3.17M)

    Post-June 1: $8.78 million in 2025 + $3.45 million in 2026 (saves only $280K in 2025)

     

    Elijah Moore

    Current Deal: 1-year, $2.5 million (with Bills for 2025 after leaving Browns)

    2025 Cap Hit: $2.51 million

    Dead Cap if Released: $2.51 million (no savings)



     

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  12. 4 hours ago, bmur66 said:

    It means control the clock and don't score too fast because you will expose the defense.


    This is the narrative that gets the most play as if the offense did the defense any favors last week.

    Twice the Bills offense turned the ball over deep in their own zone only to have the defense limit Houston to 2 field goals:
     

    1. Interception #1: Josh Allen was picked off by Calen Bullock after a tipped pass late in the second quarter. The return was wiped out by penalty, but Houston started at the Bills’ 25-yard line and kicked a field goal.

     

    2. Fumble: Khalil Shakir lost the ball after a catch in the third quarter. Bullock forced it, and Jaylen Reed recovered at the Bills’ 22-yard line, leading to another field goal.

    Other than the Cook long TD, the offense did not put any points on the board. We had 2 field goals and a STs kickoff return for a TD. Josh Allen threw for 253 yards but had zero passing touchdowns, two interceptions, and was sacked eight times. Not arguing that we have a good defense - we don't, but the offense has been inconsistent too and not very complimentary either.


     

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  13. On 11/25/2025 at 6:39 AM, Coach Tuesday said:


    Hence my screen name, the nickname my late friend gave to Gregg Williams.  Always sounded like a genius explaining what he had done wrong the previous game.

     

    That's where your screen name came from - nice.

    There are coaches that are amazing at the X's and O's diagnosing what happened, or even coming up with creative game plans, but get them in a booth or a sideline on game day and they just cannot process at the speed of the game; some to the point that they freeze up. They can look like geniuses if their game plan works as planned, but if they have to adapt on the fly... not-so-much.

    Like most things it is more of a sliding scale not some kind of binary switch, but Brady may lean more into that cerebral processor kind of coach than a coach that can make effective in-game adjustments. That is not to say he is bad at what he does, it may be that McD has to be more the CEO that ensures Brady leans into what he does well but has the staff around him to address the in-game changes quickly and more smoothly.

    If changes come strictly from Brady, he does seem a bit slow with adjustments, we have seen slow play calls making it to Allen and the offense where Allen is signaling for them to speed it up, confusion, and a few times where the team had to burn timeouts. Brady is also a coach that likes to be in the booth so that lends itself to those who need a bit of cushion between themselves and the action to process what they are seeing.

    On the flip side there are others that you cannot keep away from the sideline who want to be right in the thick of it who are a bit more intuitive and can tweak what their team is doing on the fly to try to counter what defenses are doing.

    Not a super original take - a brief search and found a similar take online in this Draft Kings article:
    https://dknetwork.draftkings.com/2022/11/04/the-four-types-of-nfl-coaches/




     

  14. 9 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

     

    Agree. Which isn't to say he is terrible at it but it is an area he is not elite. And as the physical gifts fade it will become more important.


    Playing in structure with anticipatory throws into tight windows that are open only if the ball is thrown on time is also a struggle for our boy.

    Creativity and his athletic ability have always been his strength, but against a good defense with a top pass rushing unit, you have to get rid of the ball faster as you don't have time to wait for something opening up deeper outside the structure of the play.

     

    Especially when running mesh routes which take time to develop, once those middle receivers cross (and the Texans did a great job of not following into a rub, but rather handing off those routes) you have to come off that to your next option and get rid of the ball.

    Good defense that stressed our offense line and Allen and exposed some vulnerabilities. Even with all that we had some opportunities near the end to pull out a win and we were not able to get it done.



     

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  15. I feel like it was not too complicated.

     

    We go into each season thinking about the gaps and areas we could improve as a team and the O-Line was one area where everyone thought we were set with studs at LT and RT and little needed to change with personnel or protection schemes.

     

    5-man protection and Josh eludes any that they don't pickup, but the Texans DEs simply outmatched our OTs and that threw everything else off.

     

    There are other execution  things here and there that could have helped as our margin of error against that defense was pretty slim and less forgiveness for sloppy play.

     

    I guess the question for Joe Brady would be could he have anticipated that his Tackes would be overmatched or why did he not make the appropriate in-game adjustments?

     

    Sometimes the other team has the bigger, badder dogs.

     

     

     

  16. On 11/21/2025 at 8:04 AM, SCBills said:

    He’s hurting us at BOTH end positions because we can’t even think to rest Bosa with his injury due to Rousseau being a compete non-factor rushing the passer. 

     

    I prefer contracts tied to incentives as too many players completely tail off after getting big $ locked in.

     

    Go from performance to doing just barely enough.

     

    Oliver was an exception, got his contract and made good on it the year after, too bad about the injuries.

     

     

  17. On 11/20/2025 at 9:26 PM, RyanC883 said:

    Thanks for your service. @simon had a good summary.  Basically by every metric minus Cook and Bishop this team is worse than last year.  The D is abysmal, and the WRs are bad outside of Shakir who on a good team is a 2 or 3. The piss poor coaching and FO bad decisions are finally coming to a head.   

     

    The "D" despite playing mostly rookies and guys that are undersized or old - most should be on the practice squad vs suiting up to start held their own for the most part and kept the offense in the game.

     

    This time the offense did nothing but put them in a lot of bad positions with turnovers and poor field position.

     

    In a word this team has been "inconsistent".

     

    When they do well so many folks here get amnesia about how crappy they played the week before and freak out over any critique, but the chinks and the execution stink is still there following this team around even after a big offensive showing.

     

    I felt that in this game it was the OL's turn. They simply did not match the intensity of the Texans who often just rushed 4, sometimes 3 DL players and still whooped up and beat them with effort and beat them getting to their spots to setup blocks.

     

    Josh also shares some of the blame as he needs to reset his internal clock when playing a good defense as it has to be 1 one thousand, 2 one thousand, and I am either throwing it to a receiver, or out of bounds, or getting a few yards running forward even if it is not enough to move the chains.

     

    There was an alarming lack of effort and focus that has plagued the OL too. Even in Pop Warner we learned to block to the whistle, not block till you feel like stopping. Too many O-Linemen standing around watching Josh get pummeled.

     

    That being said, I took no exception to Van Demark taking his guy to the ground. When you are beat that is better than a weaka$$ hold that gets Allen killed and you still get the penalty.

     

    Too many play calls coming in late and confusion from that offensive staff. Seemed like Josh was waiting too long for those all night and struggled to hear a bit with the way he was covering the ear holes on his helmet.

     

    Also when we fans can see players hurt or clearly gassed, why can't the coaches. Several times guys I saw guys dinged on plays or clearly needing a sub and nada. No substitution and usually a poor play followed.

     

    This has been an inconsistent team and certainly not complimentary, but kudos to the ST coach and players that seemed to have decent game plans and the fire to compete the past few games.

     

    It's a bright spot, but there needs to be some shakeup from the coaches and core players this season.

     

    IMO I would have to see more than one or even 2 game sample of professional execution from players and the coaching staff before I start drinking the Kool aid again. Not just one group here and another group there somehow manages to find a desperate way to overcome another mistake-riddled performance.

     

     

     

  18. 11 hours ago, NoHuddleKelly12 said:

    Hard to imagine, but he could’ve wound up with 8 TD’s had just a few more reads/throws been on point…dude’s floor is others’ make believe career days! 😝

     

    We have had more than a few games where we will never know how much Allen and/or Cook could have run up a score

     

    With a faster start it would have likely ended up as another game where Allen watches from the bench while Trubuski mopped up.

     

     

     

     

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