Inigo Montoya
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Posts posted by Inigo Montoya
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2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:
Under. He’s certainly got that kind of potential, but he is a rookie DT, not many of them put up double digit sacks out the gate. I think he ends up between 5 and 8 which would be a good start to his career. I hope he hits double digits, just seems like too high of an expectation to put on his rookie year. I think his O/U should have been set at 6.5 instead of 9.
Hey Alphadawg7
I picked 9 based on Darnold's rookie campaign sack total. To provide a little context for that number, in Darnold's rookie season, 2014, the St. Louis Rams finished with a 6-10 record. Their defense was ranked 16th or 17th in the league depending on which criteria you use. The team finished with 40 total sacks which ranked them 13th in the league. Robert Quinn led the team in sacks with 10.5 sacks. So that defense was not some juggernaut that was routinely destroying people that Darnold was playing in.
As an aside the #1 team in the league for sacks that year was our very own Buffalo Bills with 54 sacks...
Oliver's entire game and value is based on his ability to get into the back field quickly and disrupt. He is a rookie and there is always a concern with how he will transition to the pros and that is something that you need to consider when estimating how productive he will be this year. I agree with you, if he gives us 7-8 sacks I wouldn't be upset at all, but I think this Bill's defense is going to be really stout, I hope much better than the 16th ranked defense Darnold was playing on his rookie season. I think with more talent playing along side Oliver, he is going to have more opportunities to produce. Time will tell. Opening day can't get here fast enough...
Inigo
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1 hour ago, row_33 said:
QB as cakewalk MVP
Best D in the history of football
From what this board crows about the 2019 Bills, all the other teams won’t even want to get off the bus for the thrashing
It's true.
They are already making a movie about it;
Josh Wick
"They had no idea when they shot his football that they had just signed their own death warrants and unleashed Hell..."
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Just now, fansince88 said:
Yeah, I just have no clue what to put down on it. I was thinking 10$ on the over and 10$ on the other....but Im not telling my wife. What you think?
I agree. Don't tell your wife. ?
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1 minute ago, fansince88 said:
Im going to go out on a limb and say there is a 50% chance it is 9 or over and a 50% chance it is 9 or under.
Gutsy call!
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I have been reading up on Ed Oliver's draft evaluations and the frequent comparisons to Aaron Donald (it's going to be a long time until training camp...). I decided to look at what Donald did in his rookie campaign. He played in all 16 games, starting in 12 of them. He recorded 9 sacks his rookie season. I though we could do an over / under on Oliver's sack total this year based on Donald's first season where he had 9 sacks. Might want to add why you feel that way too.
Aaron Donald Career Stats
Games Def Interceptions Fumbles Tackles Year Age Tm Pos No. G GS Int Yds TD Lng PD FF Fmb FR Yds TD Sk Comb Solo Ast TFL QBHits Sfty AV Career 78 74 0 0 0 0 9 13 0 4 40 0 59.5 263 189 74 97 149 76 2014* 23 STL LDT/rdt 99 16 12 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 9.0 47 37 10 18 13 11 2015*+ 24 STL LDT 99 16 16 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 40 0 11.0 69 43 26 22 37 20 2016*+ 25 LAR dt/LDT 99 16 16 0 0 0 0 5 2 0 0 0 0 8.0 47 36 11 17 31 15 2017*+ 26 LAR DT/lb 99 14 14 0 0 0 0 1 5 0 1 0 0 11.0 41 32 9 15 27 15 2018*+ 27 LAR DT 99 16 16 0 0 0 0 1 4 0 2 0 0 20.5 59 41 18 25 41 15 So plant your flag. Go for broke. Make a stand. Go all in. Be bold. Draw a line in the sand.
Ed Oliver Sacks 2019; Over / Under 9
I think Oliver is landing in a good situation in Buffalo. I think he will benefit from defensive coaching that will scheme to get him production. McDermott and Frazier like to rotate DTs so Oliver should still be fresh in the 4th quarter of games when the 300 lb lineman opposite him are wearing down. Having Hughes coming off the edge will help flush the QB up in the pocket where Oliver will be pushing. Oliver is quick enough to stunt with Hughes and create mismatches all along the line and sow havoc with blocking assignments for the offensive lineman. I'd be shocked if he doesn't get at least 10 sacks this season.
Inigo says anything less than 9 is INCONCEIVABLE! I say over.
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Ok everyone. How about Canton in twenty-two years???
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Josh Allen doesn't have to be Tom Brady or Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers. He just needs to be solid NFL quarterback who can manage a game and pull out a game winning drive from time to time when the chips are down. Put a QB like that along side our defense and a decent run game and we are going to be contending for championships.
Having said that, I would love to make a trip to Canton in twelve years to listen to Josh Allen's induction speech...
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2 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:
" 9 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:
Hey WEO,
I set the bar really high for the defense in this post for a purpose. If I had written that post and said our defense has the chance to be "really, really good this year!" what does that get you? Does anyone think our defense isn't pretty good already? Where is the discussion about that opinion?
If I say they have a chance to be a historically good defense, ala the '85 Bears, now we have a discussion on our hands with some people saying there is a chance if things break right for the defense to really be special, others saying they will be really good but probably not at the level of '85 Bears, and some like yourself thinking that there is not a snowball's chance in hell we have the makings of that type of historic defense.
It's a message board. I post stuff here to express my opinion, AND hopefully to give people something to chew on for a little bit. I enjoy the give and take with people as long as its respectful. If you read my post again I don't say they are going to be the next '85 Bears, I ask if it's possible. I lay out why I think this defense is primed to take another step forward this season. It's a long way until we start playing football. I'm just looking to talk some football until then. What else is there to do but speculate a little bit in June about what may happen in December? ?
Inigo"
By your logic, any middle to upper third of the pack D has the chance to be "historically good". This D wasn't a rookie Ed Oliver away for greatness. And as for the AFCE, Leveon Bell is now in the division and the Bills D isn't good against the run. Also, they will have to face Kareem Hunt this year.
All fair points WEO.
Bell might not find success as easy in the Jet's offense this season with a questionable offensive line and a less robust passing attack to pull defenders out of the box. I'm curious to see how he does this year. I'm a big Kareem Hunt fan. He should be back Week 7, I think we play the Browns in Cleveland in Week 10. That game will be a real test for our defense. The Brown's offense looks stacked.
Can't wait to see how it all plays out.
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7 minutes ago, freddyjj said:
Inigo, thanks for a good topic. The above #s reflect TDs teams scored on us. The Bills D did not score last year and were last in that stat.
Thanks for setting me straight freddyjj, I’ll hop back into the post and fix that.
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There is a good article about the Bills defense on WGR's website that talks about the bulk of the defense from last season being back this year and being healthy. Here's the link; https://wgr550.radio.com/articles/news/while-bills-offense-has-dealt-injuries-defense-benefiting-continuity It got me curious to look at last year's defense and wondering if the defense has the potential to take another step forward this season and become a historically great defense, and by historically great, I mean defenses like the '85 Bears, '00 Ravens, '76 Steelers, and '13 Bucs. I think there are five reasons why this is possible, but first I put some stats from last season's defense to show how our defense fared and see about where we should be starting from this season.
Bills Defense Rankings 2018
Yards Per Game; 2nd
Passing Yards Per Game; 1st
Rushing Yards Per Game; 15th
Points Per Game; 17th
Take Aways; 7th (16 INT/ 11 FUM)
Sacks; 14th Tied with Tampa & Detroit
Def Touch Downs; Tied for last with 9 other teams (0 TDs)
Obviously, the rushing defense was our achilles heel. We had three game last season where we gave up 200+ rushing yards.
Week 7 At Indy 220 yards Loss
Week 12 Home Jags 226 yards Win
Week 16 At Pats 273 yards Loss
It would be easy to think that the reason our defense's pass stats were so stout was because teams could just run the ball successfully against us and didn't have to pass, but I don't think that is the case. Our run defense was still ranked in the top half of the league even with those three 200+ yard games. I think our secondary was simply playing at an elite level last year. Here is the starting D lineup at minicamp this week, and note that Ed Oliver isn't on this list;
- DE - Jerry Hughes, Trent Murphy
- DT - Star Lotulelei, Jordan Phillips
- WLB - Matt Milano
- MLB - Tremaine Edmunds
- SLB - Lorenzo Alexander
- CB - Tre’Davious White, Levi Wallace
- (Slot CB) - Taron Johnson
- S - Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer
Pretty damn solid all around. I think there are five reasons we should expect even better play from our defense this year.
1. Another year in the same defensive system; Everyone, especially Edmonds, will have another year of knowing what is expected of them. Less time to think about the scheme and more time to simply react to the play as it unfolds. This may be the single biggest factor. I think it's fair to expect Edmonds to play better this year. That alone should be huge for the run defense. Harrison Phillips and Jordan Phillips will both be in their second season in the system as well, and Horrible Harry will also have a year of NFL experience under his belt.
2. Defense bringing almost everyone back; We lost Kyle Williams and that is a huge hole to fill. The Bills recognized that and spent their first round pick to bring in Ed Oliver. We'll just have to wait and see how Oliver plays this season to see how much, if any, drop off there is at that position. I think the Bills did the best they could to mitigate the loss of Kyle Williams. Kyle was our only loss on defense. Our secondary should only get better this year. We have added Kevin Johnson and E.J. Gaines to the secondary. Solid pieces and great depth for an already stout secondary. Wallace continues to ball in OTAs and mini camp and looks like the real deal. I think we will have the best secondary in football again this year.
3. Pass rush should get better; I think people are going to be surprised with Trent Murphy this year. He is now fully recovered from his ACL and I expect him to bring a lot more game. With Hughes and Murphy coming off the edges and Oliver pushing up the middle, we could have a real "pick your poison" situation for opposing offensive coordinators. Our secondary should be better too, leading to more "coverage sacks" by our pass rush.
4. I think the AFC East is trending in our direction; Our six division games are more than a third of our season, and I think our defense is set up to have a great year in our division. The Jets have added some skill position players and I think Darnold is a solid QB, but they didn't do enough to strengthen their already suspect offensive line. As we all know too well, it's hard to do anything well on offense if your line is the weak link. The Jets went for the shiny toys in free agency and should have focused more on their line. I think it is going to cost them. I think our defense is going to feast on their offense.
The Dolphins are in full on rebuild mode. We don't play the Phins until Week 7. Miami starts off the season with the Ravens, Pats, Cowboys and Chargers. A tough stretch. Week 5 is their bye week and then the Phins play the Redskins at home in Week 6. I would guess that is where Rosen will start if he doesn't win the competition outright in training camp. I'll take Rosen in a new system against our defense any day of the week.
That leaves the Pats. Brady is another year older, Gronk is gone. Many have been predicting the end of the road for the defending Super Bowl Champs for a long time, but it just can't last forever, can it? I think we will split with the Pats this year. I think we now have the talent on the roster to do it. We play them in Orchard Park Week 4. Hopefully the Pats get off to their typical slow start and we can capitalize on that and home field advantage to grab a win. Everyone knows the cheat code to beating Brady is pressure, look no further than the 1st Round picks in the AFCE this year; Wilkins, Oliver, and Williams. If Oliver can get some push up the middle and our linebacking corps can fill those run gaps I think we will take it to the Pats this year.
5. Our special teams / offense will be better (can they be worse?); Better special team's play helps the defense as much as it helps the offense. I think special teams is still an unknown at this point, but the special teams were so bad last year I would hope the only way to go is up. Beane has made a point to bring in aces on special teams. Let's hope it pays some dividends.
It's almost impossible to overstate how many times the offense put the defense in a hole last season. Despite being on the field way too long because of failed offensive drives, having horrible field position, and rarely having the benefit of playing with a lead, the defense still managed to have a fantastic season. If we get even modestly improved offensive play this season the defense should benefit immensely.
In the end, I think we have the makings of a very special, historically good defense this year.
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7 hours ago, aristocrat said:
i'm surprised more coaches haven't been gms. belichick is the only guy now that does it i believe. i think chip kelly was. been some other random ones but it never lasted that i remember.
Being an NFL head coach is an 18 hour a day job. Very few people can handle that grind for more than a few years. Even fewer can handle that and the responsibilities of being the GM. GMs do a lot more than draft and cap issues. Ultimately, I think this is good news for the Bills because I think Gase is going to have difficulty doing both jobs well with the end result being a weaker Jets team on the field.
Another thing to watch closely is how Bell reacts to getting dissed by Gase. Bell just got paid, he rolled the dice and lost, he actually would have gotten more money had he taken the Steeler's original offer. He burned his bridges there and wanted out. Now he is going to a new team where it's all over the media that the head coach didn't really want him. Wait until he has a bad game and the New York media starts to lampoon him in the papers and the always forgiving Jet's fans on social media start calling him a bust.
I don't think it will be too long before he starts thinking, "I've got my money now, maybe I should think about life after football and not destroy my body for a team and fans that treat me bad." Should be very interesting...
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5 hours ago, Warcodered said:
Apparently fired around 70 rounds into the house he had to of pissed someone off very badly or this is just a really awkward case of wrong address.
Elm Street? I thought you said Elm Avenue. Sorry about the house. My bad...
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1 hour ago, R Y G A R said:
I want this guy to be a beast, but just not sure I see it happening. I like how he tracks the ball and he looks like a stronger type for a WR. But that's about all I can see. Haven't seen enough of his route running to really know. I'll trust Beane on this one. Maybe can be an intermediate guy with Beasley working underneath and Brown and Foster going down the field.
They might just trot him out in the red zone to high point the ball in the corner of the end zone.
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When we signed him I read a lot of articles about him and interviews with people talking about how he has played, and more importantly, how he has carried himself in the CFL. It was all uniformly positive. He will be the first to tell you that he is playing on his last chance. I think that is what he is talking about in this interview. He has no illusions of his situation. He knows he can't make anymore mistakes.
When he says "I can play if I stay out of trouble." I think what he is really saying is, "I have always had the ability to play at the NFL level, I just kept screwing up and didn't take advantage of my opportunity. I realize that now."
Maybe I'm just too forgiving, but it sounds like the light finally has come on. I'm excited to see how he plays in camp and during the pre-season. I'm still hoping he is a diamond in the rough.
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Notice how everyone in the room was in a suit and tie. I'm sure that's not the case in many draft rooms. I think it's indicative of the culture Beane is building in the organization. Be professional at all times There are no short cuts, no causal Fridays. You are here representing this organization and this city. We are going to look the part, we are going to act the part, we are going to take care of our business like professionals.
It all starts at the top. You gotta like it.
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20 minutes ago, The Bills Blog said:
This would be incredibly disappointing.
We should be expecting more.
From 13th in the AFC to 5th or 6th in a single year? I think would be a huge amount of improvement.
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12 minutes ago, Boca BIlls said:
Sucks when it's time to compete you automatically think Wildcard... I hate the Patriots.
I think a Wild Card is realistic. Being one of the top six teams in the AFC this year will be a big jump for the Bills. We still have some holes on this team. Beane couldn’t fix everything this year. I think we’re on the way though.
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Calling my shot here...
I expect the Bills to be in the playoff hunt throughout the entire season and it will all come down to Week 17.
I think the Patriots, Chargers, Colts, and Browns win their divisions this year.
That leaves the Bills, Jets, Chiefs, Broncos, Texans, and Steelers who will likely be in the Wild Card hunt at the end of the season. I'm not going to predict who wins the Wild Card from the Chiefs, Broncos, Texans, and Steelers group, but I do think that the winner of our regular season finale grabs the last Wild Card spot.
I think home field advantage pushes our young team over the top. New Era Field will be rocking on December 29th.
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Buffalo Bills Penalties By Year;
2014 Doug Marrone; 124 penalties, 31st in league 1031 yards, 28th in league
2015 Rex Ryan; 143 penalties 32nd in league 1249 yards, 32nd in league
2016 Rex Ryan; 111 penalties 23rd in league 995 yards, 21st in league
2017 McDermott; 98 penalties 10th in league 872 yards, 9th in league --- PLAYOFFS
2018 McDermott; 116 penalties 27th in league 992 yards, 28th in league
We obviously took a big step backwards from 2017 to 2018 in penalties. You can't blame our poor 2018 season on an increase in penalties alone, but it certainly was a significant part of it. How many of Allen's big passes down field for a first down got called back due to penalties? At times last season it seemed like every other big play Allen had got nullified by a penalty. I don't think it was possible for the Bills to punt or kick off, or receive a punt or kick off last year without a penalty flag flying. I think it's fair to blame part of the team's penalty regression on a young roster of less skillful players who got caught out of position and were forced to interfere or hold trying to make a play, but some of it is also due to a lack of player discipline. Below are the "discipline" penalty totals broken down by type.
The totals below are for Roughing the Passer, Personal Fouls, Unnecessary Roughness, and Unsportsmanlike Conduct penalties on the Bills.
2014 10
2015 12
2016 11
2017 6 --- PLAYOFFS
2018 9
The totals below are for pre-snap infractions, Offside and False Start penalties on the Bills.
2014 26
2015 22
2016 12
2017 13 --- PLAYOFFS
2018 26
We're not a good enough football team yet to be able to give away yards and downs to the opposition and not have it cost us in the win-loss column. If we can get back to playing disciplined football that could make the difference between getting into the playoffs this year or watching from the sidelines again. Playing clean football is a trait of well coached, disciplined, and ultimately successful teams. McDermott and his staff need to reverse this trend and get back to playing tough, physical, but smart football this season.
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Shady is on the last year of his contract and is a long shot to be back next season. Frank Gore is on a one year contract and may be brought back next year on a similar one year contract for $1-2 MM if he continues to produce this season and provide some veteran leadership for the offense and RB room. Yeldon is on a 2 year contract averaging $1.6 MM a year. Unless Yeldon is horrible this season I would guess he is back next year too.
In 2020 I think the plan will be Singletary as the feature back, Gore or some other free agent or draftee as the change of pace back, and Yeldon as the receiving back. With those three combined next year, the RB position will cost less than $5 MM. Pretty good value there.
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Frank Gore Stats 2018, age 35;
Rush attempts; 156
Yards; 722
Average Yards per carry; 4.6 yards
Receptions; 12
Receiving yards; 124
Average yards per reception; 10.3 yards
For the last 6 years everyone (including myself) has been saying that Frank Gore is too old to keep playing at a high level and is about to hit "the wall". He does hit the wall every year and runs right through it. If he can contribute 4.6 yards per carry on 150 rushes this season for us, that would be huge.
I'm done saying that Gore is too old to play RB in the NFL. I've been wrong too many times. He is one of those athletic freaks like Adrian Peterson. A combination or great genes, a phenomenal work ethic to stay in game shape, and a fierce drive to compete. I think the Gore signing was brilliant. They are not looking to have him carry the rock 200+ times. I would expect a similar work load to what he had in Miami last year.
I think he and Shady will just about evenly split RB1 duties and they will bring in Singletary for a change of pace back and to also get some valuable game time experience for when he is the feature back next year. Yeldon will be the receiving back like James White in New England.
If Singletary plays so well that it's hard to keep him off the field, that's a great problem to have, and I think he eats into Shady and Gore's time share equally.
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59 minutes ago, Circlethewagon8404 said:
I agree that Belichick game plans around Brady, but I think he could still sling it 50 times per game if he wanted to. That's why he has so much longevity, because he doesn't have to pass it as much. Additionally, their run game has gotten way better over the years
If you can't directly link to the video it is on YouTube, copy and paste this into the YouTube search window; Patriots vs. Steelers Insane Final Minutes! | NFL Week 15 Highlights
I have attached a video clip of the last few minutes of the Week 15 game last season against the Steelers. The game came down to a 4th and 15 in the Red Zone. Fast forward to the 10:00 mark in the video to see the start of the play. At 10:35 they isolate Brady on the replay with an end zone view. Watch how Brady releases the ball. Watch it twice. Brady does not throw a good ball. He does not step into the pass. He feels the pressure coming as T.J. Watt gets around the right tackle and bails out of the throw, throwing off his back foot while spinning away and then falls to the ground to avoid being hit even though Watt wouldn't have touched him on the play because Watt falls down.
With him bailing on the throw like that the ball is a duck and is inaccurate. Game over. Tom Brady five years ago stands in the pocket, steps into that pass, takes the hit, and probably delivers a strike to Edelmann. You can tell from that play that he is thinking about taking that hit and basically quits on the play. He is hearing the footsteps now and it is starting to effect his play.
Unanimous first ballot Hall of Famer, GOAT, married to a Brazilian super model, rich as Midas, but now at the end of his career and thinking about his health and his future quality of life. No shame in that. I really think this will be his last season.
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4 minutes ago, Circlethewagon8404 said:
Decline??? as much as I wanna believe he's declining, he's just not. He's only getting older and still playing at an elite level. All we can hope is that he either breaks himself or just retires soon. Just because we all hate him and want his career to end doesn't mean he's declining.
I don't like Brady, but I have always respected his game. The Patriots won the Super Bowl last year with a power running game. Brady only had 570 pass attempts in the regular season, the lowest number of attempts in a season where he has played a full 16 games since 2010.
Bill Belichick is the best coach in the league and will continue to game plan to hide Brady's decline like he did last year, but there is no doubt that Brady is no longer the QB he was even just 5 years ago. Can Brady still manage a game? Yep. Can Brady still work his magic on a game winning drive when he needs to? Yep. Can Brady sling the ball 50 times a week, game after game and win that way anymore? Nope.
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Great post OP.
On defense it looks like they added some experienced secondary depth, our only real loss, and it was a big one, was Kyle Williams retiring but we went out and got Ed Oliver in the draft. We'll see how that goes, but on paper it looks like nothing worse than standing pat on the league's 2nd ranked defense.
We brought in the best return man in the league in Andre Roberts on special teams and have been adding free agents and draft picks who should hopefully improve on the coverage teams. McBeane dumped some good special teamers last year to clear up cap space for this year's off season. It looks like he is trying to restock the cupboards now with Senorise Perry, Mo Alexander, and our later round draft picks like Joseph. Having a healthy Hauschka back will be huge too.
The offense is almost a completely new unit. Allen will step on the field this season with 7 or 8 out of the 10 players being new (we'll see if Dawkins can hold onto a spot on the line somewhere). Every new player looks like a clear up grade over last year's roster. Gotta be happy with that. We should see better offensive play all around
It's not just upgrading the starters, we should have some solid depth when the injury bug inevitably bites. It looks like a real NFL roster for the first time in a while.
Even better is that we are in great cap space shape to extend our new free agent players who have come in on one or two year prove it deals to long term contacts if they play great. Right now according to Sportrac, the Bills will have the fifth most cap space in the league next year with $71MM. We should be able to keep the young nucleus of this team together for a while.
We will still have three years on Allen's rookie contract after this season to continue to upgrade the roster. I can see us being real contenders for a Super Bowl after this season if Allen continues to develop and Brady continues his decline. I think Beane has been on point since he got here with his plan; do whatever you have to do to get your franchise QB, build the trenches, and lastly, sprinkle in some great skill position players in free agent and the draft to push your team over the top.
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Josh Allen: Film Review From a Cynical Man
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
Peyton Manning Rookie Year
Completion percentage less than 60%. Not accurate.
3-13 record. Loser.
Only one 4th quarter comeback and one game winning drive. Not clutch.
26 touchdowns to 28 INT. Interception machine.
Peyton Manning = Bust
My point is to have everyone take a breath and give Allen a chance to learn the game. I'm so glad someone didn't decide that I was a bust at my job my first year out of school. There is no substitute for experience. Why don't we give the kid an honest chance to gain some and then see where he stands.