Rew
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Posts posted by Rew
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I think the challenge with evaluating this for some people is they expect that drafting well = winning and drafting poorly = losing. Chicago may draft above average but do a poor job in FA and with coaching. Or they may draft well at the individual level but do not draft strategically in a way that moves the team forward (the old position of need vs BPA argument). This seems to be a good metric used in combination with other ways of evaluating a GM's performance, but not necessarily perfect in a vacuum.
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About to take flight. Enjoy the rest of the game guys. Looking forward to a landing filled with notifications of bills scores.
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9 or 10 quarters with no punts? Anyone know the record?
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Just now, Braedenstearns said:
So we are either playing the chargers or pats?
Assuming we win we play the pats (if they lose) or the winner of raiders/lac (if pats win)
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2 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:
That's not good! Wouldn't you rather play the Raiders than the Patriots?
It seems wierd, but I'm fine playing the pats at home. The raiders/chargers could turn it into a shootout that we could lose. I don't see the pats hanging with us unless there is 50+ mph gusts, and even then it looks like we found out how to use motor and 17 in a run heavy game. Go phins.
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1 minute ago, gonzo1105 said:
right I’m not arguing that but the likelihood of the Dolphins going 3-0 is slimI feel pretty good about them against the saints, given their quarterback situation. Titans are obviously a bit more of a challenge, but they have a good shot. I wouldn't go as far as calling them winning the next 2, but to think that they'll be playing NE for the playoffs in week 18 seems feasible.
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9 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:
it doesn’t matter unless the Patriots are going up directly against the Dolphins for that spot. Highly unlikely with the Dolphins remaining schedule.
The first tiebreaker is head to head so sure if the Dolphins go 3-0 and the Pats 1-1 that’s a possibility. Every other tiebreaker starts with Conference record which the Patriots hold a big advantage in vs all of the WC besides Las Vegas if you can believe that. So if Vegas and the Dolphins are the teams than maybe
Assuming they have the same record the pats miss the playoffs in every scenario (bc this would imply MIA went 2-0 head to head). Wild card tiebreakers still use division tiebreakers if in same division. Even in the case of 3 or more teams, it still applies division tie breakers first.
Source: https://www.nfl.com/standings/tie-breaking-procedures
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58 minutes ago, No Place To Hyde said:
In fairness Joe B isn't a "real analyist" of anything. He's never worked in or done any kind of that worked. He really doesn't make known what his criteria is, how or why he grades.
In short he watches the All-22 and has an opinion. Not any different than what happens on these boards. Only he writes an article for clicks and content.
Agree that it is just an opinion, but at least he actually watches the plays and has some basis. Many of the opinions you find online (specifically a board like this) are off the cuff judgements that view a player out of context on a limited number of plays.
A great example of how a fan could mis analyze a play is the run example in the video that highlights Milano and Edmunds complementing each other. In real time I felt like it was another play where Edmunds was credited for another late tackle just chasing the play. After reviewing the camera angles provided here you can see that on that play Edmunds exhibited textbook gap integrity (he rightly skipped the chance to shoot the gap here) and showed outstanding hustle getting to the play after he forced it outside. Regardless of an individual's prior football expertise, an attempt at an unbiased all 22 analysis is far better than I can do in real time and it's much appreciated when people post it here.
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1 minute ago, Simon said:
Levi with uncalled illegal contact probably saved a TD
It probably had nothing to do with the pressure we had on Newton forcing a bad throw.
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NE is playing a base nickel right now and the results looking similar/worse than our performance against colts. Interesting to see what adjustments BB tries to counter with.
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That wasn't a drop. Little behind him after the wind moved it and defender knocked it out. Chill guys
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9 minutes ago, BisonMan said:
First and foremost, the Bills weren't playing so all I had was a "rooting interest" in several games. Simply, I wanted teams above the Bills in the conference standing to lose. Unfortunately, that meant I had to root for the Patriots and the Buccaneers! My ultimate fan nightmare.
- I wanted to the Pats to win because the Bills have two games coming up with them and our ability to win the division is entirely in our hands. So, even a Pats win that keeps them ahead of us in the standings doesn't really matter with those two head-to-head matchups left. We really wanted the Titans to lose because they are ahead of us and hold the tiebreaker. But crap! The Patriots won. 🤮
- I wanted Tom Brady and the Bucs to win because Indy has the tiebreaker with us and we have to have a 1 game lead over them to be seeded first. Ugh, Tom Brady had a good game the Bucs won. 🤮
- I wanted Cleveland to beat Baltimore as they currently lead Buffalo as well. This one didn't go as we wanted and it's the game I was least conflicted about as a Bills fan. 🤮
As a fan, you can't "win" on some Sundays. 😧
I was conflicted on point 3. Cleveland winning would be good to try and math out a path to the #1 seed. However, in terms of playoff probability Baltimore beating browns and bengals gives us a better overall playoff probability. I'm not scared of us playing BAL in the playoffs, even if we have to go there, so I eventually settled on a BAL win being better to knock off CLE.
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3 minutes ago, Casey D said:
Who could possibly look past this game? Winner almost certainly will win the Division, especially if Bills win.
We currently have better division record than pats. We can win division if we split with them and have same number of losses elsewhere. We can even lose to pats and TB if they lose to Indy it will be the next game w pats that decides the division. I think we are the better team and should win next week, but if we do lose in a well played game it's not like the world is ending.
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I didn't see any of this game. Was his 25% completion as bad as it looks on paper?
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That was great patience and vision by Allen waiting for Morse to make the hole
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45-20 with a def or st touchdown
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The run defense in nickel has been decent this year. Coaches underestimates how much the loss of star and Edmunds would mean to our nickel effectiveness.
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Picking up some tickets for next week. Anyone have info on the tailgate or sections for the best fans in the world?
Same lot near the mall?
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39 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:
He is. So this thread will have to be around for an other 16 years or so.
Will there be a thread on Josh's assault on there career rushing record too?
I think career rushing TDs makes more sense. Not enough volume to really push yardage. He'll likely end up 3rd in rushing yards on the bills, but easily first in rushing tds (at his current rate).
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Tua had more ypc. Way overrated stat in qbr
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The math is pretty easy of why to go for 2 near the end of game. In overtime you tie around 7% of the time. Meaning you win around 46.5% of the time in overtime. You miss the XP around 7% of the time. That gives you an expected win% of around 42% it you go for the xp. If you think you have a good play schemed up that you can make the 2 pt at better than 42% chance you should go for it.
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Just now, Process said:
Can't wait to watch us play action every play in a two minute drill
The 2 minute drills is when we've looked our beat this year imo. End of half management has been the most impressive thing about the team this season
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Liked going for it, didn't like the call. The way our line was getting pushed around today makes it a much less likely pickup than usual. As someone else said, roll Josh to the right and let him decide to toss it or run through a db for the first.
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1 minute ago, mjd1001 said:
Yes I did, and as I have posted MANY times on here, on many of the 3rd down conversions that failed where he scrambled or threw deep there were guys open, and I mean wide open, that would have gotten the first down. The question should be what game where YOU watching?
I was watching the game where Allen had 72% completion, didn't try to force it outside of like 2 throws, and helped the team pick up 7/13 3rd downs. 53% conversion is better than any team averaged last season. Allen played well, there were a couple of plays in the red zone where it would have been great to score but he was far from a leading factor in the loss.
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*UPDATED* Draft Success - Measured by AV
in The Stadium Wall
Posted · Edited by Rew
Exactly. I like and agree with the ranking on here as long as it is treated as "draft efficiency of individual picks". As was previously stated, the team/environment specific impact on AV should be minimized in the long run leading to this being a good metric. This leaves you with JGM's chart giving a good assesment of draft efficiency. Ultimately, this really is more an evaluation of college scouting performance than any team building aspect of the GM job. The definition of "drafting well" will vary to most people, but I think it's important to draft effeciently (BPA) balanced with strategically (did you put together a complete squad). Meaning that the best drafter doesn't need to be at the top of this chart, but likely in the top half. The other missing piece in this is that draft picks can be used as trade collateral. It's hard to imagine an easy way of comparing the use of a 5th round pick to acquire a rookie 4 year (JAG) starter vs trading a 5th round pick for an impact veteran that you get 3 good years out of. However, an evaluation of usage of draft capital would ideally try to capture this.