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HoofHearted

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Posts posted by HoofHearted

  1. 23 hours ago, Beck Water said:

    On the just-missed-the-catch to Sherfield on 3rd and 12 38:12  minutes into the video...O'Sullivan spends a long time painting the throw to Shakir in the middle as the better choice.  I don't see it.  Where's someone who knows their shite like @HoofHearted to put me straight?   2 deep safeties, one takes Diggs, one takes Shakir, and Sherfield is the correct read.  Sherfield gets his hands on it.  There is no reason that shouldn't have been a catch: a high degree of difficulty catch, but a catch.


     

    Generally speaking a post vs. any middle open coverage is dream scenario. It's fairly easy to manipulate Safety hips with the stem of the route to get them to open outside before you cut back in. Once you win leverage there's no one else there since the backside Safeties eyes will never look there - becomes a foot race in the end.

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  2. 15 hours ago, Beck Water said:

    I'm not a scout, but I'm not sure that's the way "most NFL coaches grade" and would welcome some input on this - any input from guys who've coached at the college or HS level @HoofHearted @Buffalo716?

     

    Either way, I think the main point is that the coaches (and scouts) are typically people who have a deep and nuanced knowledge of the game.  They're people who can diagnose the defensive coverage based on subtle cues like footwork and body position.  We saw this kind of thing with Tony Romo when he started his broadcast career, where he could accurately read the defense and predict what the offense was going to do and the network told him to tone it down.  The ability of these people with a lifetime football background, playing and coaching, to deduce the play call, or the coverage, or the protection call, after looking at film, is on a different level.

     

    It's my understanding that PFF uses a lot of graders in Ireland and now India whose understanding of the game is taking a few training sessions.  Now they claim that only 10% of their employees finalize grades or something like that, and that everything is reviewed, but 🤷‍♂️?

     

    Some critiques of PFF:

    https://sportank.com/media/post/is-pff-reliable-are-they-all-that-credible

     

    I picked these because neither are out to just dismiss or trash PFF.

    PFF grades are for fans. They serve no purpose to teams.

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  3. 4 minutes ago, Einstein said:

     

    Yes.

     

    He is disguising outside leverage pre-snap and the second the ball is snapped, he moves to inside leverage.

    3a.thumb.jpg.34cf3e39947e45cce10a455dcbd98def.jpg

     

    2afs.thumb.jpg.d84c4da994891ba4089d86ede0261b94.jpg

     

    The other hint that he is playing inside is that the ENTIRE middle of the field is left wide open.

    Even AI knows :)

    ai.jpg

     

    Is that a broadcast angle? The angle is not the same as what I'm watching on the A22 that clearly shows the corner playing outside leverage.

  4. 19 minutes ago, Einstein said:


    No disrespect intended, but this is simply plain false. At no point did the CB have outside leverage. 


    It was definitely an option route. And Brian Baldinger confirmed it was as well. 

    Capture2(1).thumb.png.955161c0752d078e9cdd67c700fd9793.png

     

    Wouldn't let me post two images in the same post, but here's your post-snap (still outside leverage) look. As far as the route being an option route - like I said you don't run out-breaking routes that close to the goal line on the backside of a progression. On top of that - everything in Gabe's movement indicates he's running a called route concept.

     

    It very well could have been a pre-snap option based on pre-snap leverage, and based on that pre-snap leverage he ran the correct route, but there is definitely no post-snap option route being run here.

  5. 4 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

    iirc you said Allen was wrong for the miscommunication w Davis at the end of the Eagles game as well

     

    How likely is it that, given how often they're not on the same page compared to say Diggs or Kincaid, it's usually Allen at fault?

    Without going back and looking at every play I couldn't say.

  6. 33 minutes ago, Buffalo Bills Fan said:

    @HoofHearted

    When you see the all22, what you think of this play? The first interception.

    Davis gets pre-snap outside leverage and post-snap outside leverage by the corner. The screenshot Einstein posted makes it look otherwise, but it's only because the corner plays catch technique on Davis. The corners head is behind the receiver, but he still has front-side control. I said this in another thread, but will say it again here - Gabe's not running an option route here. The whole concept of the option is to avoid defenders and run to space - that's not what happened on this play. Gabe was leaning into the DB to make him work further outside before cutting back inside on the bang 8. Additionally, and what's not being mentioned, if Gabe's not the first read then there's a zero percent chance he's running anything out-breaking to the near pylon as a single side receiver because by the time the play develops to that point any separation created at the breakpoint has been covered back up by a DB.

     

    Allen tried to make a play - it didn't work out.

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  7. 20 hours ago, Einstein said:

    Update: Brian Baldinger says this was in fact an option (choice) route by Gabe Davis. Calls it "miscommunication".

    When nearly 40% of INT's are when targeting one player who only receives 15% of the targets... there is a problem.
     

    @Beck Water
     

     

    If it truly was an option then Gabe ran a poor route, but ultimately Allen's at fault for the INT. He threw the wrong ball based on the leverage.

  8. 5 minutes ago, Einstein said:

     

    If Gabe broke off his route to just run to open space, that’s even worse.

     

    I’m almost positive it was an option though. You can actually see Davis reading the leverage before making his turn.

     

    And I highly doubt Allen would simply throw it to a random area if he knew where Gabe was going.

    Tough to tell from the broadcast angle because he goes out of frame at the breakpoint, but Gabe pushes into the leverage of the DB before pivoting back. If it were a true option route he would have recognized outside leverage immediately and converted it to the bang 8 he actually ran without burying himself in the DB first.

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  9. 9 hours ago, Beck Water said:

     

    I’d like to hear from one of our X’s and O’s guys - the first INT was obviously a choice route and Allen and Gabe were on different pages.  I’m thinking Gabe chose correctly (based on coverage).  Anyone?  I know @HoofHearted on a miscue in an earlier game, confirmed Gabe read it correctly though Joe Brady was very diplomatic and took the blame on himself, pointing out that Allen was under duress and had very short time to decide (in that instance)

     

    Anyway, the point is - not to interfere with your feelings on Gabe, and I think there are reasons to question whether we should pay him or not.

     

    But if Allen is the one who is throwing to the wrong spot based on an option route and the coverage, getting rid of Gabe won’t help.  Allen has to be better and make better decisions.

    I'll have to wait for the A22 to be certain, but initially I didn't think it was an option route. Looked more like the play was breaking down and Gabe was just running to open space to try and make a play for Josh. Josh just threw it blind.

  10. 10 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

    My X's and O's questions are:

    1) particularly in the case of the overload blitz where the D creates pressure with 4 or even 3 rushers while maintaining coverage by overloading only one side of the line, are there any OL protection calls which would allow the offense to better handle this?  It seems to be a strategy that has been successful against the Bills offense for some time and since it's a "copy cat league", well....

    2) ditto in the case of the 'phantom edge rusher'?

    3) In a section I didn't quote, Kubiak says it looked as though the Pats were in Man coverage, but they were actually in a form of "Match" coverage.  What is "Match" coverage and how does it differ from Man?

     

    Thanks!

    1) Overloads are successful because they almost always guarantee one on ones vs the OL regardless of protection. There's nothing really from a protection standpoint that would be better against these, but the offense should be looking to take advantage of that opposite side because the defense is essentially a guy short. It should create a natural through in the pocket for Josh to exploit, but in addition a large number of these overloads are coming from zone concepts where the defense is dropping DL into coverage. That's where we need to do a better job of seeing and exploiting those match-ups.

     

    2) Same thing with the "phantom edge rusher" - they're doing it just to occupy a guy to create 1 on 1's elsewhere. Same advantages for the offense though, if they're just going to sit a guy at the LoS and have him essentially do nothing then there's going to be opportunities in the pass game to take advantage of the fewer numbers in coverage.

     

    3) There are match variation of basically every coverage out there these days - so without seeing a specific example I wouldn't be able to tell you.

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  11. 16 hours ago, Beck Water said:

    I'll play resurrectionist on this thread.

     

    @HoofHearted & others, wonder if you could kindly do a break down on what the coverage should have been on the "Toney Offside" play?

     

    We all saw how open Kelsey was.  It's my impression that Christian Benford was supposed to be covering Kelsey and Toney picked him hard.

    1) Is that corrrect or should Cam Lewis/someone else have covered Kelsey when he crossed in front of them?

    2) If it should have been Benford, what should Benford have done to avoid getting "boxed out" of the play like he was?

     

    Apologize for not the best image quality or sequence, but this is what I'm talking about

    0.  Dane Jackson on Toney, but releases to take up Noah Grey.  Kelsey has free release but looks to me like Benford has him

    1.  Lewis on Toney, but Benford right there - is Benford expecting Lewis to leave Toney to him and Lewis cover Kelsey?

    2. My best try at catching when Toney turns his back and slams his body into Benford

     

    Again, apologize for not better pics

     

    And please folks, let's NOT talk about the pre-snap penalty sitch here, I'm hoping to get some insight into what the coverage was on the play and what went wrong to leave Kelsey so open.
     

     

    Capture0.jpg

    Capture.jpg

    Capture2.jpg

    It was Man Free coverage. They were playing a form of combo coverage on the bunch set (Johnson takes first to flat, Cam takes first in/vertical or second out, and Benford takes first out/vertical or second in). This concept is tough because the verticals don't declare at the LoS and so it puts your rules into conflict. You either sink with the verticals and switch them off or sit on them and play them man regardless of what they do at the breakpoint. Cam sits and Benford drifts. McDermott said they got picked in his presser so it leads me to believe they weren't suppose to switch them off once they declared vertical. Benford can't sink and instead needs to just sit on the route and play catch technique, collision, and stay under the pick.

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  12. 2 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

    Really good stuff here. This is vintage Tom Brady Ehrhardt-Perkins stuff. I think one of the most important things is continuity with receivers or finding guys who have experience with these choice concepts. Not too many players come out of college with this type of knowledge these days, so it will be interesting where they go in the offseason.  

    This isn't true. Choice concepts are huge at the high school and college level and have been for some time now.

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  13. 34 minutes ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

    So essentially it’s the same play with the difference between terminology based off of the defensive alignment?
     

    7T DE would give you a duo but because they brought the safety into the C gap and showed a 9T you’re calling it ISO? Either way you’re getting a 2v2 game with the TE/WR on DE/S.

     

    In terms of calling this play, would they even distinguish a difference between the two, and simply use a single call with the defensive front and blocking rules indicating what the TE/WR are doing based on alignment?

     

    Interesting…I never thought of it as ISO since my ideas of the play generally consists of a FB or TE being the lead back but in this case it’s a WR

    It’s different blocking rules, so no. They are two different calls.

  14. 16 minutes ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:


    Romo said they looked like they were playing man to man. To the field that appeared to be the case, but were the Eagles in C2 match to the boundary? Slay was on Diggs in the slot but passed off the out to the boundary corner to run with Davis.

    No, it was just combo coverage. Man with switch rules.

  15. 19 minutes ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:


    Any tips on give aways as to how this is distinguishable between duo and ISO? 
     

    From what I saw, it appears we were getting two pairs of double teams working to the stacked backers. What is the iso component here? Is the ISO referring to the WR on the CB? 
     

    Appreciate the info!

    Tight end will block down on Duo and sniffer will fit outside. If the tight end kicks EMLOS, OL blocks covered to uncovered, and sniffer inserts its ISO

  16. 17 hours ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

    After rewatching the last Buffalo TD drive in the 4th quarter, it’s pretty interesting to see the progression of plays and how they stacked up:

     

    We saw a mix of Big 12 personnel with Edwards as well as 12 with Morris. Buffalo runs 4 straight duo runs into the Eagles 4 man front. Looks like the Davis motion causes change of strength for the LBs, as they flop with the motion across the center.

     

    Guys just do a good just of getting on bodies. The double teams on the stout DTs do just enough to allow for tight running lanes and the OL was getting to the second level cleanly handling the LBs. Make no mistake, they are not moving guys: just stale mates and that was enough. 

     

    After 4 straight successful runs, the eagles counter by putting 5 DL on the field (unable to double all of these guys). Our play selection shifted (not sure if called or checked) and ended up running what looks to me like a mid zone concept. We weren’t nearly as successful here and guys just aren’t winning 1v1s. 
     

    What was cool to see was how we took advantage of the 5 man front with a quick hitter screen to Diggs. After multiple plays of condensed looks, we stretched the field horizontally, jetting Davis and Dawkins out in a semi-jailbreak look. 
     

    Additionally, it’s my belief that the TD was likely a result of such success in the ground game. The Lbs started cheating up and gain to much ground towards the LoS as they make their reads. #53 bites just enough on the mesh to open up the window on the bang to Davis. #24 is caught flat footed and roasted inside, having to cover the entire field from the far hash in man. 
     

    A cool series of plays and an interesting back and forth from our offense. 

     

    A few things that I’d like to know more about is why they like to condense these WR splits into the slot, and even behind the guard/tackle. What advantage do they feel they gain by bringing more bodies into the box? 
     

    Additionally, I am curious as to why we saw so much success this drive with the duo runs out of the 12 big personnel and why we struggled to find similar gains with Kincaid in spread. 
     

    Hoping to watch more tmrw. 

    @HoofHearted

     

    Just for clarification purposes the four plays you are referring to were ISO, Inside Zone, ISO, and ISO in that order and then the fifth play was Mid Zone as you said. The whole concept behind that set is to force a corner into having to be a C gap fitter while also ensuring our backs a 1v1 vs a Corner. Still haven't had time this week to watch the A22 so I don't have an answer for your second question at the moment, but hopefully I'll be able to get to it at some point.

  17. 8 minutes ago, Old Coot said:

    Hoof,

     

    I (& likely the forum) would be interested in your take on the miscommunication between Josh & Gabe. Who is at fault (if anyone)? Thanks.

    Josh. Gabe got inside leverage so he ran to grass like he's suppose to.

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  18. 20 hours ago, Rew said:

    @HoofHeartedCan you give some education on decision criteria for option routes in our scheme?  What are the reads, when do the receiver/QB make the read, and how clearly or how much room for ambiguity are the decisions.

     

    On longer option routes the QB has to throw before the receiver even makes his decision.  Can they both be right based on when they have to make the decision?

    It really just depends on the concept. I haven’t had a chance to look at it at all, but if I can find time this week to take a look I’ll do a breakdown of it on here.

  19. 6 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

     

    Yea, I remember noticing this with Dorsey a lot too. Almost to the point where it was such a tendency, receiver motions into the backfield or slot as a blocker, you kinda wanted to see them develop some pass plays off of it. Because teams gameplanning for the Bills had to have that as one of their run keys.

    They did pass out of it occasionally. 

  20. On 11/24/2023 at 5:44 PM, Beck Water said:

     

    So there’s a TBN article by Mark Gaughn (who is usually pretty fact-based) saying that Dorsey ran motion or pre-snap shifts on 50% of the plays as OC in the first 10 games this season.

     

    Brady increased it to 62% vs Jets

     

    Under Daboll, he claims it was 39% in 2021 

    I'm sure this can be confirmed by anyone with a PFF subscription. I think they track pre-snap motions. Wonder how much of that motion came on run plays vs. pass plays. We did run a bunch of short motion stuff to bring Gabe or Shakir in on a short motion into a sniffer position to run out of.

  21. 15 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

     

    Are there are any X-and-O analysts that you can recommend as informed and insightful?  

     

    When I watch a Bills game, I watch as a fan.  I'll be dimly aware of formations, schemes, etc.  Mostly, I'm just following the ball and either cheering or groaning.  But when the game's over, I like to watch an analyst break down the offense so I better understand what happened and why.  

    For Bills specific stuff there’s not a lot out there.

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