Billzgobowlin
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Posts posted by Billzgobowlin
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20 hours ago, FireChans said:
There's some market inefficiencies to take advantage of here.
First, let's set the stage:
In 2018, the salary cap was 177M. In 2025, its 279M.
In 2018, one of the best RB's of his era, Todd Gurley, who was second in MVP voting signed a massive extension.
That extension was 4 years for 57M. An AAV of of $14M. 21M guaranteed at signing (with more guarantees later if he made the team). A record setting contract.
Those numbers, TODAY, would make him the 4th highest paid running back in the league. So when we are talking about a Cook extension, and how that fits in the salary cap, just remember, he is asking for a little more than 2018 Todd Gurley money with a $100M more in salary cap space.
Now, of course, other contracts have been inflated. QBs make more than ever. WR's make more than ever.
Odell Beckham set the WR market in 2018. He signed a 5 year, 95M deal, with 18M AAV and 41M in GTD.
in 2025, that would make him tied for the 20th highest paid WR, right next to Christian Kirk (who inked his deal in 2022). The guarantees are even close, with Kirk getting $37M over 4 years of his deal.
So what conclusions can we draw from this?
Nothing that we didn't already know. The NFL at large has decided that running backs aren't valuable and that WR's are crazy valuable.
However, I would argue that this points to a strategy to take advantage of NFL decision-making at large. In a league where there is 1 winner and 31 losers, you don't want to follow the pack.
I suggest the Bills SHOULD meet Cook in the middle if he would take $15M AAV. We don't have a WR worth $30M. We aren't sure we ever will, and we aren't sure that we would pay them even if we did.
I would also suggest the Bills should NEVER pay a WR anything ever. There is no point in playing in a market where JAGs or good players are having their value this inflated. I don't know where the WR carousel ends, but I don't want to be on it when it does.
The reason the market has been so inflated is because of the RB. Should not have to pay Cook as a top3 RB if he has not proved it yet. He needs to show that he can carry the offense without Josh Allen to be in that range.
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I think part of that is the flow of the game. Chiefs against us is probably pretty similar. Defense needs to be there when we need it and it hasn't been. I find it interesting that as soon as a defensive player leaves us they don't excel anywhere else, that should play into the lack of depth and quality. I am interested to see how much our line improves because of this draft.
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20 hours ago, Shaw66 said:
I was hoping someone would start a discussion about these position groups. I don't know who will win the corner roster spots, but I'm confident it'll be a good group.
Safety is where I, and I think most others, are concerned. There isn't one who gives me a lot of confidence to be a solid, above-average start. I can't get enthused about Rapp, Bishop didn't show last season that he was ready (although he may and very well could make the jump he needs this season), Hamlin doesn't do it for me. It seems to me like a room full of backups and projects. One or two need to emerge.
I was praying Starks would fall to us in the First because I know how dependent our defense has been on Safety. Not convinced they would draft him because of perceived value but man I would have loved him to be a Bill. Not sure any other Safety was mildly exciting. I'm curious as to why they didn't go and get someone else other than Forrest at that position.
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On 4/26/2025 at 7:12 PM, khlax3 said:
Assuming we don’t add any meaningful FAs this is how I see the roster breakdown assuming everyone is healthy:
QB: Allen, Trubisky (cut- white, buchle)
RB: Cook, Davis, Johnson (cut-Evans, Gore Jr)
FB: Gilliam
TE: Kincaid, Knox, Hawes (Cut- Davidson)
WR: Palmer, Shakir, Coleman, Samuel, Shenault (Cut- shavers, Virgil, pranther)
OL: Dawkins, Edwards, McGovern, Torrence, Brown, Anderson, Van Pran, granger, gable, Lundt (cut- green, Edwards, gouraige)
DE: Bosa, groot, epenesa, Solomon, Jackson (susp- Hoecht)
DT: Oliver, Jones, sanders, walker, Carter (susp-ogunjob cut-logue)
LB: Bernard, Milano, Williams, ulofoshio, Andereson (cut-Spector)
CB: Benford, Harriston, white, Johnson, Hancock, strong (cut- Jackson, Ingram, coddington, hardy, couch)
S: Rapp, Bishop, Forrest, Hamlin, Lewis
P-Camarda
K-Bass
LS-Ferguson
Offense-24
Defense- 26 (does not include 2 suspended players)
ST- 3
I don't think Hancock makes the team but makes the practice squad unless there is fear that he gets poached. I think he never sees the corner position, that was their Safety pick imo. I also don't see Dane cut and Hawes will be PS as well as Forrest and Lundt. I really see Dorian Strong pushing Hairston for a starting job.
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2 hours ago, Gregg said:
Going to be built where RFK currently stands where they last played from 91 to 96.
They played at RFK a lot longer than 5 years.
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8 hours ago, finn said:
I have no problems with a tub of goo at DT; I just think a guy who can stretch the field on key downs and stop defenses from cheating up would be more valuable, giving the short passing game and runners more room. He doesn't (didn't) need to be a fantastic, just good enough to pose a threat downfield, so a potentially bigger return on that fourth-round pick than Walker.
I don't think it was an issue last year. Also I think the offensive line has something to say about that.
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2 minutes ago, Pete said:
I believe it’s obvious
I think the narrative about receivers is because it wasn't addressed early however our first pick last year was a WR and our big signing this offseason was a WR. The defense needs starting safetys
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I would say I think more about who is available when we pick every year and how does the options of speed WR severely limit our options. Can we find someone fast that is good enough to see the field?
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9 hours ago, Bockeye said:
Last Bills player to receive rookie of the year was Kiko Alonso in 2013. Who’s it gonna be out of our draft class?
I’m swinging for the fences and going for Landon Jackson.
Who ya got?
Honestly it's hard when we pick so low every year but I agree Jackson is probably the best one to make a difference.
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5 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:
That’s who Samuel is as a player. He’s a weapon, not a pure WR. That’s who he has been back to Ohio State. He will be more impactful this year, I agree. If people think he’s going to magically become Prime Diggs, he’s not. He’s a guy that’s good with the ball in his hands. He catches screens, runs the ball some, etc.. He is good with the ball in space like Shakir.
I do think Kincaid improves as well. I don’t think he improves because he has a ton of untapped upside. He will be 26 years old this season. He’s developed. I think he improves because he wasn’t very good last year. He can be a quality role player. He might never be the top 5 TE I thought he’d become but he can be a top 12ish guy.
I keep hammering on it in the other thread but why do they keep banking on improvement on offense but replacement on defense? Why were they so concerned with upgrading Cam Lewis, Dwayne Carter and J’Marcus Ingram but fine with development from Shavers, Coleman, and Samuel? You could have and should have tried to upgrade on both sides. The WR room needed one guy between rounds 2 & 5 (as it turns out) that could stretch the field. There were LOTS of options.
I can agree with almost everything you said. It was obvious they wanted to improve the defense and that was the big issue. I would not have been upset with a receiver but I am not upset that they didn't. I don't think there was a guy who would have made us better next year because it wasn't a great draft for them. I'm more upset about the Coleman pick last year than this draft. They should have gone up to get a better receiver last year or draft McConkey than do something about it this year.
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9 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:
This is where I’m at. I like the haul, but question the Day 3 strategy. They simply lack the same urgency on offense that they have with the defense - the times when Beane aggressively “goes and gets his guy” are nearly always for a defensive player. I know he traded up for Kincaid but they need to do more of it. They just lack urgency and proactivity when it comes to the offensive side of the ball and I think it’s because how they’re structured as an organization - they are a defense-focused group and they trust their ability to evaluate players on that side of the ball. But it’s frustrating.They traded up for Josh Allen and I believe Torrence.
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I liked the draft. I think drafting a receiver just for drafting one was probably not worth it. This draft wasn't good with the positional talent there. I'm a little disappointed not trading up for Malaki Starks, he was that much better than what we have at the position. I would have traded the first round next year for him to make it happen. I like that defense was addressed, especially since there was a strong draft for CB and DT. This draft will be defined good or bad by Landon Jackson imo.
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I've watched Gosnell play at Virginia Tech. Sure hands and is there when you need him. Not extremely fast or athletic but another glue guy. Perfect guy to take a flyer on though. His brother will eventually be in the NFL as a Tight end
9 hours ago, BigAl2526 said:Size wise, Jenkins leans more toward safety at 211 lbs. Speed is good for a LB and average for a safety.
Never was impressed with Jenkins play...
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Did the WR group lose us games last year? I think you will see Kincaid and Samuels have bounce back years. The talent is there and I would not switch this group with most groups in the NFL.
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7 hours ago, NeverOutNick said:
You do realize that WRs you know the names of now started out as “random 4th round picks” when they were drafted (ask Shakir 😉). Just draft some WRs and stop trying to justify not being BPA when we know you’re lying after trading up for positions you really want for your coach.
Now Hamler is one of my favorite PS guys but I have to admit he didn’t seize the opportunity last year and I doubt he does again this year. Shenault is not an NFL WR, he was brought in to compete for returner and will have a couple gadget plays a game if he makes the team. He’s a wasted WR slot because he doesn’t actually know how to run routes or be a receiver. Palmer may be fine but he’s overpaid for what little he’s done thus far.
The same front office that drafted Shakir is the same one that did not think a receiver was worth the pick this year, leave it to the people that can evaluate talent.
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1 minute ago, BillsFan130 said:
I know nothing about the player, but I just don't understand the positional pick.
He is gonna be a practice squad player as there's a log jam at tackle .
Why not pick a guy who actually has a legit chance to Make the roster this year.. Punter? Speed Receiver? Linebacker depth?
PS is necessary as there are injuries in this game. Not same position but we did lose Will Clapp, just adding a backup on the line I would think. Also Doyle is gone too.
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17 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:
We're talking about someone who would be like 4th or 5th in a pecking order with Shakir, Palmer, Coleman, and Samuel. I don't think his drops would preclude them from bringing him back in such a diminished role.
That's fair. He made some amazing plays
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Just now, BuffaloBillyG said:
My fear: Gabe Davis is cut in Jacksonville and is brought back. They have Thomas and now Hunter ahead of him. They signed a couple WRs early in FA. And this new regime isn't tied to Davis at all. Wouldn't shock me to see him released.
I think he dropped the ball too much to warrant the Bills to want to bring him back.
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Just now, NeverOutNick said:
No way. Samuel got paid to be a top 3 WR in our offense but is only a better version of Isaiah McKenzie. Gadget man extraordinaire.
Come on dude just stop. Samuel is far from a gadget man. He had a down year but results do not necessarily equla what the Bills intent was
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Just now, NeverOutNick said:
Not even close. Hollins was Gabe Davis replacement. Big WR with a vertical game and a very good blocker
That's crazy. Hollins was on special teams more than offense. The closest to a replacement for Gabe was Curtis Samuel.
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Just now, SoonerBillsFan said:
As of now...I say Jaylen Reed Safety Penn st.
Too late
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Just now, NeverOutNick said:
Gadget/special teams fodder. We’d rather have these Curtis Samuel types than actual vertical threats for some reason
What was Hollins then? Seems like similar people except for the costumes
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Just now, SoonerBillsFan said:
Look, I am thrilled with most of the defensive picks, but it's absolutely criminal not to address WR in the 4th with who all was there.
Josh still needs help, and help who has SPEED.
Have no doubt the D will be better and all of us are thrilled, but you can address offense as well.
Sounds like the complaints last year and we were fine.
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Just now, NeverOutNick said:
Shenault isn’t a WR so I’d beg to differ. Cooper could be back though
What is he then?
Tyreek Hill chirping about the Bills again
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Two years ago the Dolphins worried me when we played them, not anymore. He should not have screwed up his time in KC.