Okay, I spent some time reading this deeply and learning about Ludwig. I offer the following observations:
1) The piece is well-written, but it doesn't offer any kind of baseline for what the metrics should be.
2) To that end, the piece does not say if these poorer voters overperformed for Trump or not.
3) There is great skepticism over the LISEP adjusted unemployment numbers and other metrics.
4) Economic data and consumer sentiment have previously been tightly linked. It's only recently that they have diverged.
5) Even using LISEP's own metric, unemployment hit an all-time low in 2023.