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Posts posted by xxxxxxxx
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On 6/26/2018 at 1:17 AM, Limeaid said:
Dangle P5t5erson instead. There DBs could use practice catching balls.
Sounds more of a resume for the Phish.... Maybe he could get job as counselor on Alabama staff.
Take a look at how many long throws he has made. Yes has to put his whole body into it but he can burn teams deep.
That is if you are interested in FACTS.
Given that your interested in facts, I will clarify what I meant.
The deep out route is when a reciever runs deep along the sideline and breaks out toward the sideline, not in towards the center of field. You can still burn teams deep on a variety of passes that aren't deep outs, so when I said deep out I did not mean deep passes in general, or else I would have said that he can't burn teams deep. Being able to hit a deep out is important if you want a qb who can keep the defense honest because the pattern is hard to defend in 1 on 1 coverage, so it can force teams to keep safties deep on passing downs (which opens up alot of opportinities for the offense. That is what I was talking about.Fitz's deep out is abysmal, which allows defenses to cheat by bringing safeties closer to the line of scrimmage. Teams can still be burnt deep when they do this, but the negative effect of sucking at a deep out is primarly felt on short and intermediate throws. Payton Manning did not have a very strong arm when he was in his prime, but his deep out was crazy consistent, and that consistency fed alot of his success as it opened up easy throws for him underneath. So the problem with Fitz sucking at the deep out isn't necessarily directly related to throwing deep down the field. When coordinators know that a qb sucks at a particular throw, that qb is easier, overall, to defend. There were lots of great threads on Fitz this board diagnosing the problem correctly when he was playing, btw, and that is what I was referring to.
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9 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:
There are QB who have unorthodox footwork or platform or throwing motion and make it work.
See Aaron Rodgers playoff TD. I watched alot of tape on Pat coming out of college (still wish we drafted him) and he has this uncanny ability to sense when he's off balance and adjust his throwing motion accordingly, almost like he's throwing a baseball (which is his background). Either way, its fun to watch a qb who can throw a pass with perfect ball placement that should not have perfect ball placement.
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Yeah, suspension is just a stupid P.R move designed to scare him straight.
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10 hours ago, Irv said:
Agree to a point - How did he throw 31 TD's for NYJ?
Gailey's system. Not sure how many deep outs went for tds; my guess is that he didn't throw many. His accuracy isn't awful when he throws deep over the middle. To the sideline its a problem. It will be interesting to see what happens if he starts again. The problem when he was here was when dbs started jumping the slants, if I remember correctly. It became pick 6 city.
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I'm pretry sure that the women he claims to have not assaulted in college filed a police report right away (and that she didn't even know that he was the teams quaterback until after), so the whole golddigging scenario is highly questionable. The NFL knows this, and that he would probably not have been drafted if charges had been brought against him and he was awaiting trial, and that, more likely than not, he would have been charged given the evidence if the same incident had happened today. So they probably assume that he is a risk to reoffend and is not worth the PR storm that would be unleashed on the league, if he assaults another woman.
Tha is what this is about, so I wouldn't waste my time with defending the dude. And if I were a commisioner, a coach, or a GM I wouldn't want him in the league either. Dude could cost you your job if he reoffends. And if a uber driver is posting complaints, he could be developing the profile of a predator, like Winslow and plenty of others.
And please can we stop acting like mutimillion dollar athletes are victims that woman are preying on here. Its not hard not to be accused of assault. Most of you get through the day without it happening, and the idea of settlments being some gold digging opportunity is ridiculous when considering how few offenders are convicted due to how the laws are written. You don't need cameras or extra security, you just need to know what enthusiastic consent is.
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1 minute ago, mannc said:
I hate to break the news to you, but that anecdote is the least of the things in Jameis’s past that make it “not unreasonable to assume he touched the woman inappropriately.”
Yeah I know. Theres an award winning doc on the dude. Updated. Thanks.
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35 minutes ago, That's No Moon said:
I thought it was interesting that it was leaked out ahead of time. Sort of lets the NFL fly a test balloon out there to see if people go nuts and I don't think it was accidental.
Its not hard not to get accused of groping an uber driver, irregardless of what may or may not have happened. Simply ride in the back seat and keep your hands on your phone. I do it all the time. Its easy if your an adult. If you have read some of the things he has said to school kids or the fact that he probably assaulted a student while he was in college it is not unreasonable to assume that he touched the woman inappropriately. Maybe he just wanted to pat her on the leg in a friendly way, maybe (probably)he was trying to flirt. Either way, initiaiting unwanted physical contact with a stranger who is trapped in a moving car that they can't get out of with you is wrong. He clearly doesn't understand what consent is, nor does he seem to care to learn.
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54 minutes ago, Irv said:
100% agree. Fitz has had his ups and downs but the dude has always been a solid man. Hope he lights it up. He's a smart guy and if his arm is strong he can put up some huge numbers. We should not have let him go. Tyrod was too safe. Fitz was too aggressive. Would rather have the latter. At least he took a shot.
The only problem is that his arm was never strong and every defensive cordinator in the league knows that he can't throw a deep out, so the defenses don't have to defend the entire field. Its the same problem that has dogged him his entire career and why he tends to have melt downs when facing above average defenses. He's a perfect backup though, probably the best of his generation. Fine against half the teams in the league, but that doesnt get you into the playoffs and it probably doesnt win a playoff game.
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57 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:
I would bet a ton of money on Landry never having a 1,500 season. That would mean he would have like 300 catches.
I would take that bet. He's only 25, had Jay Cutler and Tannehill throwing him the ball, and he's about to enter his prime with Mayfield waiting in the wings.He doesn't need 300 receptions to hit 1500 either, half that could do the job with a QB who throws a good deep ball. Dude has set records for production already, and he still has 3-4 seasons where he will be in his prime.
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12 hours ago, PeterGriffin said:
I think we've seen Tyrods ceiling 3 years ago and the league knows how to play him now regardless of which team he is on.
I think the Browns right now will be happy with 150 yards and 1 TD zero ints opposed to 200 yards 1 TD and 3 ints.
I do anticipate the Browns growing impatient with no or very minimal production from Tyrod and Mayfield will be put in sooner than later.
I think you might be underestimating Jarvis Landry and the effect that he could have on Tyrod's numbers. Dude has put up numbers with a revolving cast of QBs and if he develops chemistry with Tyrod, look out. Landry will probably account for at least 1000 yards in the passing game and given his age he is a legitimate candidate to break out and top 1500 yards this year. If Landry gets his, and he probably will, there will be fewer sub 150 yard games. If he gets hurt maybe we see Mayfield sooner than later, but Landry is a legit sleeper and could be one of the top wrs in the league next year.
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7 minutes ago, Rocky Landing said:
I completely understand what you're saying, and in some ways, I feel the same. But, to be honest, I'm rooting for Tyrod. I was a Tyrod fan while he was here. He was fun to watch when he was good, which, admittedly, was not often enough. But, I loved his athleticism, and the way he extended plays, and I loved his attitude. And, I always wanted him to be better. He's got some good weapons in Cleveland this year. I would love to see him lose to the Bills in the playoffs.
I think he might hit his ceiling this year, and it could be higher than what his ceiling was in Buffalo. Hue Jackson is cettainly betting his job on it. With that said, even if he has a great year, he's getting to the age where his running ability will begin to decrease, which is why no one wants to sign him long term. So I wouldn't lose it, if he bounces back and outplays everyone on the Bills Roster. Vince Young and RGIII both had great seasons, but neither sustained their level of performance long term.
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2 minutes ago, Johnny Hammersticks said:
Agreed. I still am amazed that they took him #1 overall. The learning curve for this kid is going to be huge, plus he’s a tiny man by NFL QB standards. I will be astonished if he becomes a bonadied franchise guy.
I agree with the article, and the idea of Cleveland bringing in a new coach next year. Baker's skill set dictates a system designed specifically for him.
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Mayfield was in a spread based system. Taylor has 3 years of starting experience in a pro-offense, and like him or not, he made the playoffs last year. I can't think of a single example of a rookie qb coming from a spread system beating out a starter who had made the playoffs the previous year. This was expected.
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6 hours ago, Sky Diver said:
Big, strong WR's are tough for any CB to defend. Wallace played against the best college players in the land. It's not as if he played D3 ball.
He's fundamentally sound which is why is nickname is "the technician".
A walk on starter at Alabama is exceedingly rare.
He'll likely have to play Special Teams to make the squad then. Dbs have started at his size before. But this regime seems to be placing an emphasis on size.
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5 hours ago, Sky Diver said:
I’m pretty sure that there are 200+ pound WRs in college.
And alot of them get camp invites, while most 160, 170, 180" and 190 pound Wrs (and there are plenty those in college as well) do not. How oftten was he put up against 200+ recievers when you were watching him? Scouting reports say that he struggled against bigger Wrs.
And what was he like in run support? The talent is a lot bigger in the NFL, so he better have amazing core strength and technique because its really easy to block a guy who's 180 at the NFL level; cracking special teams will be tough.
And if his speed is average, bulking up could easily slow him down to below average. Correction, he's listed at 179. I have nothing against the kid, but he sounds like a more of a Practice squad candidate.
And for the record Darby is listed at 5'11 193. 13 pounds heavier and 1 inch shorter makes alot of difference in terms of body mass index.
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Hopefully it can carry over to contact. He's the prototypical looks great in non-contact workouts player, who may have trouble once he starts getting hit harder than he has ever been hit before. Tackling a 200+ pound wideout isnt easy when your 180.
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On 6/5/2018 at 3:52 AM, nucci said:
How will the offense take a big step back? McCoy, Clay, Benjamin and we all think we should be better at QB...barring injuries, how can it be worse than last year? We scored 3 points in the damn playoff game!
New System, New Offensive Line, McCoy and Clay are getting up in age and Benjamin isnt very durable. Very little experience at the QB position. The passing game isn't likely to improve immediately; we are a run first team. It will take half a season to an entire season, and possibly longer if our rookie QB starts and struggles.
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He actually recieved alot of positive press during training camp and during practices. And quite a few analysts had him pegged as a sleeper who would eventually start. If I recall correctly, he reportedly looked great before contact was introduced to practice, and then his his lack of size (he might have been in the 215-220 range)showes through, leading to the early cut. It was weird. And seen as an example of Buddy being out of touch with the coaching staff.
And if memory serves me correct, it was not lb deapth that was the problem, but the logjam at wr with David Nelson taking his roster spot.
And while this may sound strange, I actually think that was the right call at the time. Nelson didnt put up big numbers, but he was pretty clutch on third down.
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5 hours ago, 3rdand12 said:
I had mentioned that bringing in McCarron unifies the O play design/calling et al. down to blocking of course.
settles the room and levels the table for how they develop the Offense to some degree. Tyrod is an outlier. make what you will of that.hell of a Ball Catcher group in Cleveland actually by now.
2 hours ago, billsfan89 said:Tyrod was a starting caliber QB in the NFL, There aren't 32 QB's I would rather trot out than Tyrod. I think you can make an argument there are much more than 20 QB's one would take over Tyrod. But Tyrod is also not a top 16 QB, I think it would be a hard argument to say Tyrod is a top 20 QB. Tyrod was also on a very friendly deal. The Browns offered up a low-end premium draft pick for him and the Bills took good value for him.
The Bills wanted a longer-term answer at QB and The Browns needed someone that could play well in front of a rookie for a year. The Browns were willing to spend the 65th pick in order to get competent QB play to avoid having to force in their top draft pick. The Bills got a good pick for a QB that wasn't going to be here past 2018, the Browns got a solid QB that gives them the luxery to not have to start a rookie.
Both teams won, the trade isn't a reflection of how bad Tyrod is more so two teams needs lining up.
Absolutely. Mayfield is coming from a spread based system, so rushing him onto the field is not advisable ( the Browns need to start winning soon). And if Tyrod plays well enough, Cleveland can always deal him during the offseason. It might not happen, but its not as far beyond the realm of possibility as the Tyrod sucks crowd thinks.
And with regard to your ranking, I think he was a top 15 QB in 2015 and 2016, and I dont think the argument is hard to make. He slipped this year, that is true, but if he stays healthy he wil have better recievers to throw to next year.
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1 hour ago, twoandfourteen said:
You explained this one far better than I could have. Nice post.
Do carry on, Professor.
Your remarks have been proven wrong by more than one poster, and you are the one who started criticizing me BTW. I never wanted to discuss this topic with you, all I did was respond to your criticisms.
I apologise to other folk who think I may have responsed harshly, but I was already warned about your maturity level from others, and they were clearly correct.
A post like the one above displays no interest in advancing conversation, its just trying to upset someone who disagreed with you. Someone who you picked a fight with, initially.
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5 hours ago, BringBackOrton said:
While I enjoy your independent rankings, I quibble with Winston being less than TT.
I also think that snapshots miss trends, which matter.
JMO.
No 1 WR for Taylor for most of 2017. But with that added context its not unreasonable to assume that his numbers will bounce back in Cleveland.
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5 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:
Statistically, this is not quite right. The basic idea that we need statistical context is correect. But it certainly isn't necessary to compare TT's performances to "every QB who played" during that time period. For example, one can simply look at the average or median performance and then perhaps look the range of game stats for a couple above-average QB and a couple QB who fall near the mean, to get an idea of where Taylor's performance slots in.
The idea of comparison as integral to statistical analysis is correct, but so is the idea of 'representative sample'.
That is true. There are quibbles about what is representative and what is not, though most stat folk will agree with what the OP is saying .And Taylors performance ranking is quite different based upon whom you chose to include in the comparison. You can compare Taylor to every QB who has a starting job in the league, which is what alot of people do, or compare him to every QB that made a start or an appearance in a game. And that difference matters if your going to try to determine whether he's above or below average or not.
And to deserve to keep a starting job you don't even have to be an average or above average QB, you just have to be better than all of the backups. I know that is a low bar for most, and its why Im ok with the organization moving on.
And I do apologise for the language. I really hate it when people use shoddy stat work to justify opinions, or what is often described as lying with stats, especially when those folk are being arrogant with someone who is trying to actually teach them something.
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2 hours ago, twoandfourteen said:
Wrong, wrong, wrong. I never said that was a "benchmark". I said it was something a DC would have to account for from a good QB. It's something that could happen if the guy goes off.
If Tyrod "goes off", he's not getting you anywhere near 375 -- even if you add in his rushing yards.
I will admit to being confused by your statistical arguments; they are sloppy, poorly coomunicated, and nothing more than silly, NFL talking head ideas, that you are getting wrong, for the most part, but are trying to pass of as your own. There is no Dalton line, thats just a B.S NFL network columnists idea, and not an accepted fact amongst the hard stats crowd (all of whom actually know what a sample size is BTW).
But you may be on to something with regards to Defensive coordinators haveing to gameplan (every game) in order to prevent your hypothetical ceiling performance that has not occured in 98% of games played. I'm sure coordinators spend lots of time trying to prevent things that arent statistically likely to happen from happening.Thats using stats to win ball games!
AND NO TAYLORS STATS DO NOT SPEAK FOR THEMSELVES. They only aquire meaning when compared to every other QB who played the game during the same time period. Statistics are fundamentally comparative, and to assert that they are not is to fail to understand a fundamental tenet which underlies their usefullness. You sir, are the one who is WRONG, WRONG, WRONG.
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14 minutes ago, twoandfourteen said:
Honest question here -- are you saying that 44 games (the entirety of Tyrod's career as the Bills' QB) is too small of a sample size?
I was talking ceilings and very good performances, not minimum standards.
If you want my opinion on what a reasonable expectation is for a quality day from a decent QB, it would be 250/2. Think "Andy Dalton in his prime".
If you want a reasonable expectation for quality of qb play you have to compare his performances to every qb who played. You cant just isolate 44 TT games and form an opinion based on QBs you think are better. You have to consider the entire sample of NFL QB play over the same period to have any boderline reliable idea of what is above or below average. Otherwise you are just cherry picking numbers to assert your opinions.
The fallacy of Allen being the bigger "risk" than Rosen
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
I've made my peace with Allen, but still would have preferred not trading up if Rosen was passed over. The major problem that I still have is the mechanics/ inaccuracy issue and its relationship with muscle memory. Lots of QB's have shown improved mechanics in practice (Tebow is a good example) , but when the preassure of a big game situation kicks in they can easily revert back to old mechanics. Until he's taken more snaps and thrown more balls without screwing up his footwork (and its going to take over a year, maybe two, maybe three) there is no guarantee that he will not revert back to old habits.
Rosen does not have this problem. He can begin learning to diagnose NFL defenses from day 1 without worrying about his feet. Time will tell, but even if Allen surpases Rosen (which is certainly possible) it will probably be near the end of his rookie contract and he will want a big deal, so we will lose the cap advantage that a young qb creates.
Sure Rosen is a bit of a jerk, but he's also a kid and kids mature. He has no off the field concerns, and if he is succesful early all the character nonsense will be forgotten (winning does wonders for a locker room).
Most likely, Rosen is better out the gate. Ideally, Allen is better long term. That is what the team is betting on, and its a gamble. If his footwork gets fixed and stays fixed it could work out.