muggins
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Posts posted by muggins
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get real..look at the 2010 season. We don't have a clue what we want to run. Get the players and use them as you need. Who give a crap is the player is "happy".
That really worked out well for DC, lol.
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Value draft day includes players. a 10, 3d and Haynesworth might be worth considering.
Why would we ever get Haynesworth when he's already been unhappy in a 3-4 in DC and we're supposedly interested in running the 3-4?
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They also got 2-3 players IIRC.
If we could get 1 decent player, the 17th pick and the 52 pick, I would take that trade. We would then have 3 starters (assuming we had a real scouting staff at least) instead of just one (again assuming we had a real scouting staff.
That would be an extreme though, and I bet we could get something better, but still get a 1 and 2 from a team.
Did we even get one starter out of last year's draft? I think Moats played a lot, but didn't start.
And yeah, the Browns got a bunch of players. One is on the Broncos, one is in the UFL.
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why is it a stupid trade ??
because the outdated trade chart says so?
for the last 10 years, the Bills have butchered their own top 12 first rounders so bad they have gotten no value from the pick, They have been incapable of turning those premium picks into impact playmakers- so what's the downside of trading down.
by trading down and getting additional picks, even though less than what the infamous trade chart says is good value, the Bills have a much better chance for success just by having more picks to blow. In addition, if the pick follows the Bills bust trend, the the budget won't be busted with top 5 salary and bonus money
Yes, I understand trading down would be really great. I do. We'd get more picks and not have to pick a #3 overall that probably wouldn't be worth the value. I understand that. Every other team in the NFL (there are 31 other teams) understands that too.
It is a starting point. The trade we made to move up and draft Paul Posluszny is an example. The Bills grossly overpaid in that one. I'm cooking breakfast so you'll have to look that one up yourself. But the Bills overpaid by quite a bit.Yeah, looks like they did. It was definitely not in the top 10 draft picks, though.
The last trade down in the top 10 was in 2009, Cleveland traded their #5 for a #17 and #52... the value they got out of that was awful, and NYJ got Sanchez and TB got Josh Freeman out of it.
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I know it is rare to trade a pick, but I'll take my scenario to the extreme. The Bills are super desperate to trade their #3 overall for no explainable reason. They call the Pats who are picking 32nd, and Buddy gets on the line "Bill, we are desperate to trade back, you give us your 32nd overall pick and the 32nd pick in the 7th round and we will give you the 3rd overall pick"
My guess is the Patsies say "OK" and do that trade. Now I know thats a horrilbe trade, but it is possilbe to trade back, if you are willing to take less than the trade chart says you should. My point is that chart is stupid because the top picks are grossly over-valued IMO.
The chart is followed, which is why if we shopped our pick and took less than the chart said we should get, we could move around much more easliy. If we wanted to drop to the 12th pick and take Quinn/Clayborne/Carimi, and added the 12th pick in the 2nd, the chart says we lost 420 points which equates to the 16th pick in the 2nd.
So, we could entice a team to make that trade, by essentially GIVING them a 2nd rounder in percieved "value" of the trade. We get thier tangible 2nd rounder, they get the "value" of a second rounder.
I would love to do that trade even though the chart says I am getting screwed, because we need that extra 2nd. My guess is another team (like the Cowboys who pick at 9) would jump all over that trade thinking "WOW what a steal!!!"
That is because it IS a steal, and we'd be making an extremely stupid trade.
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My point is if you are willing to accept less in a trade down (see Broncos 1st trade down in 2010) you can do it and if you are willing to overpay (see Broncos trade up for Tebow) you can do it. Everything in life has a price and football is no different.
Prove it - how many #3 overall picks did the Pats trade away?
How many #3 overall picks were traded for Tebow?
The fact remains - it is very very rare that any top 5 picks every get "Traded down". The only way it happens is for an impact player or a player who states he won't play for a team. Won't happen this year unless the Bills do something really dumb (see: Tebow, even for the pick they traded down to get him).
Regarding the chart, all I've ever heard is that it is followed religiously. If you have proof to the opposite, please present it. And please don't present proof that just shows how dumb a team is (see: Broncos).
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Im calling shenanigans. You think its impossible to trade down like it never happens. Well, the patriots have only used – ONE – of their naturally aspired draft picks in the last 2 drafts. That means they have traded their picks a whopping 13 times!!!! This doesn’t even count all the other teams picks they have acquired and then traded again. Do you really think people love to trade with the Pats but wont even consider doing it with us?
How can it be so impossible to trade when one team does it over and over and over?
If you saw that Tebow documentary, you would have seen Tebow’s agent talking about all the trades being discussed and predicting the exact trades that were going to happen before the draft, only to have that exact scenario pan out. He said the Broncos had talked about trading back from their first pick (which they did) and that they contacted every single team between 22 and 28 and talked trades, which they ended up doing TWICE. If its so impossible to trade, then how did Denver pull off 3 in the 1st round which they planned on doing over a week in advanced?
You are naïve if you think its impossible to trade a pick. In fact, I better every single pick in the first round is offered a trade, its just a matter of accepting the offer or not. That value chart you posted over values high picks IMO. If I am GM, Id take a 3rd rounder to drop back to 10-12 and be very happy about it, yet that chart says I would have gotten screwed. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder and I would take the extra picks in that case. Maybe Buddy wont be happy with only a 3rd, or a late 2nd, and doesn’t want to trade, but don’t try to argue that no team even discussed a trade with us because that is pure shenanigans.
Prove it.
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Matthew Stafford is a decent NFL QB and will be a great one when he isn't injured.
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History is on my side.
No it isn't.
Thanks OP, this should be stickied. The one thread where people were claiming the Cowboys would basically trade their entire draft to us was hilarious.
2004 was a big year for "trading down" (a great draft class, Eli wouldn't play in SD). After that, there wasn't any trading down done in the top 10 until 2009 when Dirty Sanchez was taken. Cleveland traded down, then traded down again. TB got Josh Freeman out of the deal. Cleveland got... Mohammad Massequoi, David Veikune (not on the team) and a CB (in the UFL). -
I'm confused by this statement. Can you elaborate? Under no circumstances do you see the Bills being able to trade out of the #3 slot?
There is a 99% chance they won't be able to trade down.
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/draft06/news/story?id=2410670
Our pick is worth 2200 points. If we "trade down" to say, the #10, we'd have to receive a 2nd, a 3rd, and a 4th to make up the points, and no team is going to do that. This draft crop isn't as great as years past. The #3 pick commands a lot more cash than a lower pick. Nobody knows if there will even be a season next year.
2004 was a big year for "trading down" (a great draft class, Eli wouldn't play in SD). After that, there wasn't any trading down done in the top 10 until 2009 when Dirty Sanchez was taken. Cleveland traded down, then traded down again. TB got Josh Freeman out of the deal. Cleveland got... Mohammad Massequoi, David Veikune (not on the team) and a CB (in the UFL).
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Of course the Bills should draft Cam Newton with the 3rd pick in the draft to be their QB of the future. At some point this team has to draft a QB. If Newton does in fact declare for the draft (as if he won't), and he falls to number 3, the Bills would be insane not to draft him. I predict he will be a high first round draft choice, perhaps top 5 and certainly not fall below top 10 anyway. One of other 5 to 10 worst teams will take a shot at Cam Newton as their QB. And why not?? The guy is a bigger, stronger younger Mike Vick! Maybe he does not have Vick's natural arm strength, but he looks good enough to me to be able to start in the NFL within a year or two at QB.
Of course I could be wrong. Nobody is guaranteed to be worth a number 3 pick in any draft anyway. But I also think it's crazy to start listing all the best DT's and DE's and LB's Buddy will surely draft at number 3 if he does not draft Newton. Nix proved to me in just his first draft for the Bills that he does not see things the same as the "draft gurus" or we fans do. Nobody thought he would or even should have taken Spiller at Number 9 overall, and then he followed that up by drafting two guys in the 2nd and 3rd rounds from small colleges that were not on anybody's draft board, so of course they were considered reaches. Pretty strange top 3 draft picks for somebody who we all considered was a top college scout and life time "football guy", don't you think?
The big major college DT's and DE's and LB's names are being tossed around on this board already, in everyone's mock drafts. Nobody thinks the Bills should even draft Newton at all, even if he was there in the 7th round. Well here's what I think: I'd rather see Nix take Cam Newton at number 3 overall, then to see who he would draft if he even keeps that pick without trading down out of it anyway.
And don't compare a Newton choice to a luxury pick like Spiller last year. Newton is a QB, and even if he groomed behind Fitzy for the entire 2011 season if they play it, and becomes the starter in 2012, he will still be worth the number 3 pick overall! Spiller, as a scat back RB too small to be the every down back, was not even close to being worth the #9 overall pick.
Anyway, Nix may draft a player from a smaller school or a different position we all think he would not draft with that number 3 pick, and then won't everyone be whining on TSW.
Did you watch the game Monday night?
re: trading down option in the poll: there is no way we'd be able to trade down our #3 pick. None.
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Ah yes, pass on the best football player in the draft who happens to play where the Bills lack the most talent, because he might not fit a scheme we run sometimes.
Very Jauron-esque thinking. That leads us to a team void of real talent.
Take the biggest, meanest, best player available and get him on the field next to Kyle Williams. It wont matter what scheme youre running. Theyll make plays.
That being said, Fairley wont be there at 3 anyways...
Isn't this the kind of thinking that got us another RB in the first round, who had tons less yards than a dozen or so undrafted RBs?
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Ross Tucker is almost always right
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I've actually never heard of Walterfootball
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Is there any real evidence that Mallett is dumb? He did get recruited by U-M, and they don't usually recruit the usual total morons, all joking aside.
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Very cool to post here and we love having your client on our team.
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Fitz is:
19th in QB Rating (85.0)
9th in Passing TDs (21)
13th most INTS (11)
25th in Passing Accuracy (58.5)
24th in Yards per Attempt (6.68)
19th in Yards per Game (230)
These stats... are... quite frankly, pretty bad.
But yet, when I watch the games, I don't see a bad QB, I don't see a QB that should be replaced, I don't see a QB that is losing us football games.
Stats vs Guts
We might end up with a new QB next year if our decision makers stick with the numbers. Should be interesting to see how this plays out.
They aren't bad with the patchwork offensive line we have and a first year coach. I'd expect them to be worse. Plus, he wasn't even the starter at the beginning of the year!
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I'm not surprised it isn't full. The roads here are absolutely terrible tonight, and it is 9 degrees outside. Everybody is sitting watching at home.
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Giants are up 14-3. No looting yet.
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Collinsworth is a douche.
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I have a tough time watching and listening to this dude. He's so old and southern.
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I've been a pessimistic fan all off-season but seeing the pre-season games and the things that have happened in the last few weeks I'm drinking the kool aid. Not the playoffs kool aid, but we will win a few games.
I can't wait for the Bills to show everyone we can win.
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I'd much rather have LeFevour
Trade DOWN
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
This has already been discussed in the previous thread where it was shown that trading down in the top 5 is very, very, very rare and even if we did do it we'd likely end up with a raw deal.
Please stop making threads like this.