Perry Turtle
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Posts posted by Perry Turtle
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19 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:
Not really mind bending. The Bills are 29-26 when the turnover battle is even or negative and 31-2 when it's positive since 2019.
Meh, causation vs correlation.
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2 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:
What do you think our record is with Josh when we lose the turnover battle?
I don't know and I don't feel like looking it up.
They're 9-7 this season, and have lost 3 games on the last drive. So the offense walked off the field with the lead 12 out 15 games this year.
You want to do the mind-bending exercise to prove that they had 12 men on the field because of an Allen interception, or that they gave up a 75 yard last minute drive to the worst QB in the league because of an Allen interception, or how one Allen interception accounted for 30 points after the first half of the Eagles game, go ahead.
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5 minutes ago, FireChans said:
This is just wrong.
Turnovers differential is super correlated to wins and losses.
This would be like saying “the Steelers defense forcing a bunch of turnovers isn’t the reason they win games.”
There are a lot of ways to win the the NFL. Steelers use defense, because their QBs suck. The Bills have a unicorn at QB, and they use him to win. Turning him into a game manager because they're afraid of an int is just stupid.
The only metric that matters is scoring more points than the opponent. Again, the Bills offense walked of the field 12 out of 15 times this year with more points than the opponent. What happened after that is on the defense.
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Just now, Mikie2times said:
Teams have nearly an 80% win rate when winning the turnover battle but somehow you feel like 1) we are immune to it and 2) you can somehow quantify injuries and coaching to have more impact than something that has been proven to be overwhelming statistically
Um, yes. It's called having a franchise QB.
Remind me, what was the TO count in the Chargers game? Oh look, the Bills are part of the 20%!
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Just now, FireChans said:
Josh overcoming Josh’s mistakes isn’t as good as Josh making less mistakes.
You're completely wrong. Coaching Josh to make less mistakes got Dorsey fired. Nerfing your franchise QB when to achieve fewer turnovers, when the turnovers aren't the true reason you are losing games, is just dumb.
The title of this thread is Turnovers are the Bills Achilles heel. They're not. Defensive injuries and coaching are the team's Achilles heel this season.
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1 minute ago, Maine-iac said:
So we are talking about things we could have done that would have kept them from scoring a field goal ................ because I can think of a couple.
Yeah, put the right number of people of the field. You really don't have think much further than that.
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8 minutes ago, FireChans said:
Josh threw a pick at the end of half that gave the Broncos 3. They won by two.
Josh threw a pick first play from scrimmage that gave the Pats 7. They won by 4.
Sucks.
Josh made that mistake, but came back and gave the Bills the lead at the end of the game. That's why you want an elite QB, because he can win you games by overcoming mistakes.
Coaching staffing counts 11 on the block, Bills win, because Allen led the comeback. But the coaching staff effed it up. And because of that, the Bills lost.
And if you want to waste your Xmas rationalizing that Mac Jones drive, be my guest. I'll stick with my take, that that loss is on the the defense giving up a 75 yard last minute drive against the worst QB in the league.
Another misfire Rabbit.
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5 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:
I'm trying to think if anything else might have helped? Like if the other teams offense got the ball already in scoring position. How would that happen?
Nah, Bills count 11 guys on that block, game over, Bills win. No what ifs, no style points, no bonus points.
No penalty, Bills have more points at 0:00: Bills win. End. Of. Story.
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44 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:
Pats and Broncos suck on offense ............. it's almost like something was helping them score points.
Yeah, a 12 man on the field penalty, and a game-ending 75 yard TD drive led by Mac Jones, who is now benched. Those two things definitely helped the Pats and Broncos score points. Good catch.
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1 minute ago, FireChans said:
Josh gave both those teams points enough to win lol.
No, he scored enough points to beat both those teams and the Eagles. Josh walked off the field with the lead in 12 of 15 games this year.
Keep shooting, though, rabbit. You might figure this out yet.
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12 minutes ago, FireChans said:
Not so fun when the rabbits got the gun, I suppose.
20 points is an insurmountable total to eclipse.
It's pretty easy to eclipse when it only requires you to count to 11 when sending out a block team or stopping Mac Jones on the final drive of a game.
Be careful firing that gun rabbit; you're liable to blow your own head off.
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3 minutes ago, FireChans said:
Obviously. There’s a lot of game that’s played before the last drive.
If we are gonna play the “Josh left the field with the lead” game, let’s play it for every QB.
DAK MVP!
Makes sense. Points against is a key QB stat. I guess Allen's problem is that he also doesn't play free safety. Or that he mis-counted the guys on the FG block team.
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15 hours ago, FireChans said:
Dak walked off the field today with a lead, crown this man the MVP already!
You blame him for that loss?
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13 minutes ago, mrags said:
Is this secretly another “Josh throws too many ints” and “Josh isn’t really in mvp consideration” thread?
Probably. By the way, Allen walked off the field with the lead in 3 of the Bills 6 losses. If McDermott' defense could hold the lead against the Pats, Broncos, and Eagles, the Bills have 12 wins and are fighting for the top seed in the conference.
But Allen' int rate is slightly higher than Brees, Manning, and Mahomes, so it's all on him I guess.
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Hey McDermott is getting schooled again against a caller dweller. Why would anyone ever want to replace this genius?
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Where's the video of Allen getting leg whipped with no call?
Allen takes a beating. If he calls attention to late or high hits, who effen cares? The refs miss enough of them to warrent this type of reaction.
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3 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:
Looking like Willis Reed!
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For a minute there, I was afraid that Nick Wright joined the board.
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31 minutes ago, Dablitzkrieg said:
Who do we want to win?
Ravens, two weeks from now.
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Mark Maddox?
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I don't know if he's done, but they need to toss those WR Screens to him out of the playbook. Diggs is an elite route runner. He's not a speed guy. Stop wasting him and downs on those stupid play calls.
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Just now, Scott7975 said:
Jets might have been ok if they kept White instead of these dumpster fire QBs.
They were doomed when they hired Hackett.
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4 minutes ago, Big Turk said:
My issue is why is Allen continuing to make the same bad throws? That INT to Hardy was the exact same throw he tried to throw to Davis against the Bengals last game that got picked too.
The almost INT on the 2nd play of the game to Kincaid for the Bills was the same play Allen threw an INT to Knox against the Pats. It's like he keeps doing the same thing regardless of if it actually works or not. WTF is he doing?
Bad decision by Allen on the Harty int, but the play call was worse, especially for the game situation.
Bills had the ball with 45 seconds left and no TOs. They were trying to drive for points. In that situation a chunk play to the sideline is the way to go. Gain yards early and kill the clock.
With that in mind, Denver was playing dime or dollar coverage; a bunch of DBs, off the ball.
Knowing all of this, Dorsey called a smash (hi-lo) concept, which is a cover 2 beater, almost the same call as the pick last week.
So the slot receiver, the low, guy runs an out, to draw the CB in. Problem is , with 45 seconds left, the CB doesn't give a s### about the short route, so he hangs back.
The high receiver Harty, is supposed to be in the gap caused by the CB drawn in, but there is no gap. And to make matters worse, this route is usually a go, route, giving the option for the WR to beat the deeper coverage, but Dorsey turned this route into an out, which drew the high and low DBs to Harty, plus an additional DB, because Denver wasn't defending this cover 2 beater with a cover 2 defense.
So, no doubt Allen made a poor decision, but Dorsey couldn't have called a worse play to gain yards on the sideline at that point in the game.
And that sums up the Dorsey era. The QB making too many bad decisions in too many poorly called plays.
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Turnovers - The Bills Achilles Heel (Statistical Overview)
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
The Bills rarely throw 50 times a game these days unless they need to (Daboll would game plan 50 throws a game back in the day).
Problem isn't so simple to address. Take the Chargers game. On two passes, Allen dropped back, felt pressure, rolled to his right, and launched the ball almost 50 yards downfield. One pass, to Diggs, was intercepted. The other, to Davis was a TD. How do you coach Allen on these two passes? Do you give him a mental checklist to process through (I'm convinced Dorsey did this) that slows him down and sows doubt. Do you tell him not to throw against his body, even though he has thrown a ton of TDs against his body. Do you tell him to take the check-down and not throw risky passes deep (he did complete another deep pass to Davis in the game).
Or do you trust the guy who has won 60+ games over his career with his arm and legs and coach him to let it rip?
At this point in his career, I'm in the camp to let Josh be Josh. This team best chance to win a championship is on Allen's arm. The running game shows up every so often, and the defense is like 75% reliable, but the best way to win is to let Allen loose (when the game calls for it).
Keep generalizing and ignoring the actual details.