AKC

Throw away opportunity for potential? Not this fan. Opportunity is fleeting, potential is omnipresent. Win football games. Now.

OK, you all seem to agree we can weigh Mr. Losman's career stats as an important and critical part of the debate.

One game- exactly- the one this coming Sunday is the important game to me. That makes the history of how he can play being thrown into the pressure cooker important. At least we know he's played good ball before under even more trying circumstances.

In a Wildcard Playoff against the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2003, Kelly Holcomb threw for the third most passing yards in NFL postseason history. A) His running game featured William Green, a career disappointment who has even today never run for 1000 yards in a season over his career. B) He was throwing to a receiving corps of Kevin Johnson, Dennis Northcut, Quincy Morgan plus our very own Mark Campbell at TE. C) He was protected by an offensive line consisting of Ryan Tucker, Paul Zakauskas, a twilight Dave Wohlabaugh, Ross Verba and Barry Stokes. (Lori- feel free to correct me here) D) It was Holcomb’s first start in 14 games for the Browns.

I think the personnel is more than adequate to run the ball down our opponents throats but unfortunately Villarial has been hampered by his injury more than is recognized and Teague is only effective when he has a strong and reliable guard to one side or the other. He can't cover for two guards in pass pro and unfortunately Bennie and a dinged up Villarial is not a good situation for him. Gandy has been a good addition, especially his range and willingness in the run game. Jerman obviously is overmatched, but he's a backup and you have to learn to play and cover for your backups. On the other side, Anderson had his first near-full game in the run D last week and for I believe 8 series he played better than Edwards has his whole career. It was only in the last defensive series, when our defense had been on the field for 30 minutes already, that our lack of any depth at DT bit us in the butt in the way of fatigue, with the Saints gaining over a third of their rushing yards for the game in one single game-ending series. I'll grant you that the depth at DT is a concern- but it's of greater concern if we're not getting first downs and consequently losing the TOP game. We'll be OK, while thin, at DT if we can move the chains on offense IMO. Edwards injury appears to have improved our ability to stop the run. With our DEs and our pressure overall, I think it's unfair to recognize we have the #1 pass D in the NFL and yet have some fans claiming we're not getting any pressure- that's simply unrealistic AFAIC. Shoring up our run vulnerability with a personnel change should help this D to get better in a hurry, and there's no better way for our run D to get better than for our offense to get us some first downs. Preferably 25 ;-)

We seem to have much to disagree on this season ;-) Let me start by pointing out that the Top 6 aren't the teams that make the playoffs. Secondly I wouldn't discount our ability in any way to end up in the playoffs if we simply make better use of our talent- meaning let's use the talent we have to best posiiton ourselves to win on Sundays. As you pointed out, you think it's perfectly reasonable for KH to play better than JP against the Fish and the coaches this week apparently agree with you. Bravo! Step one to winning- use the talent that puts you in the best position to win! Now let's see if they use that run blocking offensive line effectively Sunday and sit the overchallenged Ryan Neufeld in favor of a body who can either catch or block since Neufeld can do neither. Due to injury we'll start our most effective run stopping DLine, that's another positive no matter how it came about. We've been in position all year to win games if we could simply string together some freaking first downs after the first quarter! And if the offense can gain some confidence and allow this offensive line to focus on what they're good at, then win some games and get the young QB reps when our opponent is back on their heels, perhaps he too can get some quality field time where he has some timeto learn stewardship. And if this all leads to a playoff berth in our weakened division, would the experience of being in the playoffs with a winning team not be a million times better than being the starter for a 6-10 loser who's locker was emptied long before the first Wild Card games?

It's very easy to make the argument here though that Anderson is at least as effective as the guy he's taking over for- I actually think he's better on rushing downs than Edwards- he has a run stuffer's base and sets his lower body up well, something Edwards has never been able to figure out. Abandoning the season when the AFC East is looking like it's been kicked down a few steps would be crazy right now- there's no reason we can't find a way to take our first division game and not simply play the "development" excuse if in fact they feel JP's too spooked to come out playing well, and you'll have to admit that you wouldn't want to bet JP will "come out playing well" against Miami; why not see how Holcomb does out of the chute with the added benefit of a full week of practice as the starter? I expect JP Losman to be our starter for a long time, I also expect our Head Coach to do EVERYTHING in his power to win this season, especially considering that our division appears to be there for the taking, probably at 9-7. Also this might allow the coaches to get off their reliance on JP's toolbox and get back to a play action scheme that our OLine is far better suited to play than the blaster drill passing offense they've given us so far. Bottom line is that there's lots more to experience than simple playing time. It might be time we get our future star quarterback some experience in the victory department. That might even prove to him that he doesn't have to carry this team to grab the gold ring, he simply needs to go out and execute. And that might be the best thing about starting Holcomb- both our talented sophomore and our coaching staff might get back onto a page in fundamental offense they've been ignoring while they've all been so star-struck by JP's feet.

We'll be facing Keith Traylor this week, a guy who was available during the off-season. And of course Cory Simon being added to the rotation in Indy certainly didn't hurt them. I don't know if Grady has 15-20 good downs in him a game anymore. He hasn't been able to finish a season healthy since 2001. Maybe in a limited role he could survive, but we're awful static with our situation packages and he'd probably have to play too much for us.

Nor would I ask you to. One of the great things that attracts fans of the strategy side of football to this board is the ability to explore our opinions and then come back to discuss whether these have played out on the field during the game. As with a handful of other posters, I appreciate your consideration of your own opinions and your willingness to turn it into cohesive text and discussion. As far as QB, I believe he has an utter lack of confidence in his time and that leaves him absolutelu out of control. He's like a kid with hyperactive ADD and he is of little use, but at the same time he has to get it out of his system. Typically an OC will give him easy sideline outs ot let him gain some rythym and confidence. We have one of the best WRs in the league to throw these to in Moulds, it might be the strength of Moulds game at this point in time. But the desire to go downfield seems to obsess the coaching strategy each week. I'd like to see them give the kid a little confidence by using the field along the sidelines, which also loosens up the running game. Evans will still draw consume 2 up top while Eric keeps the O moving. Forget downfield for one freaking quarter and let us get s good start, maybe even a good balanced start considering the opponent. And with a little confidence in his line we could have the kind of caretaker Sunday we were expecting coming into 05 from the QB position.

Like a hyena, the fan with the 29th rated passer facing the top pass defense in the league sees cackling as an appropriate retort to conventional NFL wisdom.

An NFL defense that holds their opponent to less than 20 points would typically be spared being fingered by fans as the culprit in a loss- especially a defense who was forced onto the field for at least two extra series by their ineffective offense. I think you give too little credit to a DLine who played a solid 30 minutes with virtually no quality depth behind them. It's hard to ignore that Duece McAlister racked up over 45% of his rushing yardage on their final drive. If we can simply put together 20 first downs on offense, the D we're fielding now is capable of making the Fish look inept. Problem we've been having though is our offense since week 2 has been averaging about 13 first downs a game.

Expect an improved run defense with Anderson playing now for Edwards. Had we split TOP with the Saints this past week the run defense would have had a very good outing, and look for the same. Bottom line, I expect the D to give us 30 minutes of good football. If our offense can take the other side of that by holding the ball for an equal amount of time we'll have a good day. If the offense needs the D to play 35-40 minutes our lack of DT depth will once again cause us to fail to meet the test.

Just to clarify your predicitons: A) The Fish will match their season total for picks against us on Sunday. Which would, of course, be more picks than our starter has thrown in the first 4 games of the season combined. B) Ronnie Brown, who's not even among the top 40 running backs with his 3.9 YPC average (worse than Shaud Williams, Sammy Morris and 40 others) will walk across the Bill's defense. C) Gus Frerotte, the 29th ranked passer in the league, will have a Y.A. Tittlesque game. It's an amazing grasp of the game you show ;-) Now when reality strikes you on Monday I predict you'll find that the Dolphins in their 4th game of 2005 looked suprisingly similar to the Bills in their 4th game. And it will be a game that makes it perfectly clear just how bad you blew it taking Ronnie Brown instead of Cadillac Williams.

At this point he's proving that mobility is no cure for defensive pressure. He's so damn nervous that he rarely if ever looks off his primary receiver. And when he pulls it down he commits 100% to the run. I was watching some clips from the Eagle/Chiefs game. McNabb is flushed on a play and he takes off to his left, looking totally as if he's commiting to run- and yet when he sees a receiver open 3 or 4 steps into it he dumps the ball and lets his receiver pick up 15 yards and take the hit at the end of the play. A totally veteran play. We can only hope that JP's field vision starts to improve soon, and it sure does seem that history proves that running the ball is the single best way to slow down the game for your QB. The QB we've got on the field needs desperately for the game to slow down some so he can gain the experience playing the QB position the right way instead of playing with fear as he is right now. He'll learn nothing playing with fear, and we'll win scant few games with him running scared.

I'd say your basic premise begins with a flaw in the comparison, that being that yardage in the air would have to be weighted equally to yardage gained rushing if we consider the number of passes to the number of rushes. The ratio here is actually about 3:1. You might want to try using yards per attempt but it still is an imperfect comparison. Also you acknowledge that better teams pass less in the end of the game; of course- there's no reason to pass with a lead, the clock ticking and a defense reeling against your running attack! The disparity you show is simply the historical difference in yardage between a rushing attempt and a completed pass and the resultant effect of an effective running game on the necessity to pass. I'd say your stats actually suggest that passing the ball is by far the less desirable thing for winning teams, and hence why winning teams aren't passing the ball in the 4th quarter.

I'm not sure where and how a team finds its talent and then "grading" it on it's draft/contract value would be a formula you could use to identify a team's strategy on either side of the ball, in fact I'd be more inclined to think that if we took the raw position data- the way players are acquired and how much they're paid- that it would it would be very indicative of what team that raw data came from or even what type of team was being built knowing that raw data. I assume things are more random, for instance the Chargers have a larger expenditure than we do at CB because TD has had success with lower round corners, yet he has not done well with lower round WRs and hence we're spending higher picks on the position. My reference to Donahoe's job being done is simply that at this point in the season you assume you're playing with the roster you've got signed up. It's now the coaches job to use that talent to the absolute maximum you can- and therein is my current gripe- I believe the coaching staff is failing to do that. They've failed to give us the best chance to win because they've got players in the wrong packages or players on the field who diminish the potential of other packages so much so that we should be looking at alternative schemes- basically I'm saying that on most of our plays there are players on the bench who should be on the field and visa versa. And if a team does that too much it'll be awful- and right now we're awful. Will Roscoe Parrish be the MVP of the NFL in 2008? I have no idea- taking a slot guy at #2 is pretty easy to make an argument against, but if he turns out to be a major contributor in the offense and on ST he might go far in justifying that 2. What'll make me happy is seeing an opening in Miami that forces them to bring 8 guys to the scrim, 8 guys on their heels. Once a defense is playing that way the ability to breath a little on some single-covered outs can make a QB REAL comfortable, especially a guy who can roll. And once Losman finds something he can do effectively we can begin to become a team that might just take advantage of the dramatic decline of the teams in our division.

He was yelling because of how close Crowell came to giving them a 15 yard present.

IMO the running game is built from the inside out, not the other way around. I'm trying to think of any "exclusively" power running team that completely ignored adding some speed at WR and sacrificing blocking, and I don't doubt there's some historical example (especially prior to the 70s), but I'd say among the contemporary power runners you can find that speed/blocking tradeoff on the most succesful examples. Our running game is built on offensive linemen who are far better run blockers than pass blockers, specifically citing our RG and LT as much more effective run blocking. The blocking schemes are also more set for power running with substantial assign and seal duties instead of a stretch or finesse style blocking scheme like Shanahan uses in Denver. We're probably using a FB as much as all but 3 or 4 other teams and we also rely heavily on two-TE running sets. All that to me adds up to a power running scheme that wants desperately to beat an opponent up seems to lose the commitment to do it come gameday.

Maybe tonight, bad idea to throw a big tannic rhone on top of that two gallons of "football breakfast".

The GM's work is pretty much done for the season, our fate lies in the hands of the coaches. Maybe we could suggest to OBD a "Tell us why in 2000 words or less you should...." Coach a Game Contest ;-)

History makes a far better argument for the opposite. While we've had a contemporary champion in the Rams who used the pass to set up the rest of their offense, it's difficult to point to one other non-West Coast O champion who didn't use a running offense and line to set up their passing games.

I realize you know another of the arguments here, but I'll put it into play anyway- Pittsburgh is effective passing BECAUSE they are more likely to run the ball. Opposing defenses see the run more than the pass plus Pitt runs effectively, and this puts the D on its heels. On those limited downs when they do pass, the D simply can't get in BRs face since they have to be prepared for the run on nearly any down.

But only if the team recognizes their unbelievable misuse of talent. It is no surprise that on only one more series in the game following our successful opening drive did we run more frequently than we passed. Otherwise, this coaching staff did what they’ve done all year- they’ve blatantly ignored the talent on the team to instead try to force their own offensive and defensive concepts on the roster. The problem, of course, is that the offensive and defense they want to run don’t fit the talent we have. And make no mistake, we have some very good talent on this roster. We’ve assembled a good run blocking offensive line that has played so well Willis McGahee has rushed for more yards than all but 6 other backs in the league. Even though we have an obvious and measurable strength giving the ball to our feature back, Willis has less carries than any of those backs in front of him in yardage. With less carries and less chances to tear off a big run (something he hasn’t done yet this season) he’s still averaging 4.8 yards a carry. We have thrown more passes this season than we have handed the ball to our running backs. Instead of running more we’re insisting on putting the games in the hands of the least experienced player on our offense. Instead of forcing our will in the run game and using the strength of our very good run blocking offensive line, our coaches have put a very unfortunate and inexperienced kid behind a line being asked to pass protect on most downs while pass protection is their obvious weakness. Add a nervous “rookie” QB and there’s simply one outcome any objective student of this game would predict- a disaster. Those crazy Steelers? They rush more than 3 times for every 2 passes they let their young QB throw. In another Pitt reference, how can the mobile QB be on the bench for a 4th and inches play with the game on the line? Was Mularkey sleeping during the Slash years? And that’s just on offense. So we finally got to see Anderson play with the starting defense, and it shouldn’t surprise anyone that the team clearly has blown it all season using Ron Edwards and having his butt knocked everywhere but into his gap on running downs. Anderson needs some work but he plays with a run stopper's base- he gets his feet set wide and he holds his position with infinitely greater frequency than Edwards. If not for the inept offensive performance yesterday our Rush D would have given up no more than 75 or 80 yards to Deuce McAllister. They fell apart on the last series but to their credit they’d played over 30 minutes of defense at that time and considering we have garbage for depth at the DT spot, the final breakdown shouldn’t have come as any shock. The bottom line is that we built a ball control running offense and our coaches refuse to commit to it EVEN WHEN WE’RE KILLING OUR OPPONENT. Defensively we’ve been using a part time pass rushing DT in our first down rushing package while someone more capable of run stuffing has been polishing pine. In one case an injury is forcing the team to correct their own misuse of defensive talent- on the other side of the ball we can only hope that someone on this team takes the oars back from the decision maker responsible for this offensive folly and we move towards the Pitt model our staff came from- run the ball 3.2 times for every 2 pass plays. It's that simple.

Neufeld is among the disappointments of the 2005 season and I can't believe there are not more talented blocking TEs out of the league who could come in tomorrow and give us better work. Posey appeared to have the inside on that, I'll go back and look at it again but no doubt one of them was supposed to take the edge and the other go upfield. If we were scoring 20 points a game a bonehead defensive play like that wouldn't be so indelible, with the O struggling though it becomes huge in the outcome.

There's only 10 teams in front of us in rushing this year, with #1 and #2 being teams we've already played (OUCH!). The BAD news is there are 4 more of the top 10 we still will see this year, and none of those are in the AFC East :-(