billsgpr88
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Posts posted by billsgpr88
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Better prepare yourself. He will not make it out of training camp.
This prediction is baseless. He was the best back on the team last year, and his style doesn't rely on being the fastest or most agile guy on the field; that's why he's lasted so long. And btw, he's without a doubt one of the top blocking halfbacks in the league. You don't think Greg Roman appreciates that?
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Curious for you Shaq Thompson hopefuls, since he's somewhat undersized would you want him to play OLB or step in at SS?
His versatility is what intrigues me. Rex would probably use him as both a safety or OLB, depending on the Situation (eg: safety on short yardage/running situations, and OLB on passing downs).
Completely unrelated, but I think Robey is going to have a big year. His ball-hawking instincts and blitzing abilities will be optimized by Rex (see 2013 season with Pettine).
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laken tomlinson, shaq thompson, or bernard mckinney
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Bust: Bryce Petty. don't see him ever dissecting a pro defense
Sleeper: Karlos Williams. Raw at RB (switched from safety), but has great speed for his size.
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I know we all want to look for reasons as to why ej hasn't panned out yet. The fact is, and it pains me to say this, but he cannot read a defense and he absolutely cannot throw accurate balls consistently. Nothing is going to change those shortcomings
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NO. LET ME TELL YOU WHY
he isn't good enough. In particular, his vision, accuracy, and decision-making are not good enough. Manuel defenders can look at statistics that show he is comparable to hall of fame quarterbacks in the beginning of their respective careers, but those guys showed potential. Manuel clearly doesn't pass the eye test. I get nervous every time he lets go of the ball because I have no idea where it's going to go. He stares down receivers as hard as any NFL qb I've ever seen, and he barely ever makes use of his strong arm. That last part could change, but I think he has a low ceiling for the innate talent to read defenses and throw the ball accurately.
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congratulations, you were able to display your ignorance in the very first word you typed.
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He's not an NFL qb. Deal with it.
I wanted him to be one as much as anyone else, believe me. I was lying to myself saying he could be. He has so many things you would want in a starting QB and a face of a franchise: a big guy with a big arm, athleticism to run if he needs to, a good looking guy who never gets in trouble off the field and works his butt off all year. But the simple truth is, he doesn't have the talent.
He never hits a receiver in stride. He can't read a defense. He won't throw it downfield until they're behind and need a comeback. He has never shown the ability to be consistently accurate. And he doesn't show the qualities of being a leader during the game (when was the last time we saw a Bills QB riling up the team, or get in guys' faces on the sidelines? I want someone who wants to win more than anyone else on the team).
Everyone talks about development. I see posts of misleading statistics of other QBs that became elite, or QBs that sat on the bench for a few years (Brees, Eli, Rogers, etc.). But all of those guys showed potential. You could see them thread the needle in tight coverage, or make multiple reads until they found the wide open guy. You could see them playing to win and not playing not to lose. EJ's stats may be comparable to some of those guys in his young career, but he absolutely DOES NOT PASS THE EYEBALL TEST. You can see his lack of skills, and his fear of making a mistake (how many audibles for running plays have we seen?). It seems as though Marrone has realized this, and the sooner the better.
Hackett is also to blame, but that is a whole other thread
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D line ravages
Rivers yelling at teammates
media eats crow
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Horsecrap. 16 games started is the only real measurement we can use. What's the alternative? Running Madden simulations for the 6 games EJ didn't play last year?
(You know it wouldn't surprise me...) Letting yet another "sports analytics" clown fail at doing my job, causing me to have to post, yet again, another long refutation of their idiot methodolgy?(Past examples: "Road Wins Against Playoff Teams"
, "Yards Per Attempt" )Ridiculous comparison. Was Aaron Rodgers starting games those 3 years? No.
In fact, you're proving my point for me: any analyis of a drafted-->starting QB is relatively pointless, even after 16 games, because of the plethora of variables that cannot be accounted for in a SANE manner.
Why is it that for last 20 years, we have always reserved "bust" status until 3 years after a player was drated, and rarely declared someone a bust until they demonstrate absolute suckitude consistently? Because that's the rational approach.
Suddenly, due to a few outliers like Kapernick and Wilson, we are supposed to throw away everything we know about the college-->NFL transition? Who the F gave that order, and why the hell are we following it? Again, there are FAR too many variables(like, um, the strength of both SF and SEA defenses?) to pretend we know a damn thing about Kapernick or Wilson or EJ so far.
Question: How much is EJ been benefitting from our D/ST(like Kap and Wilson have) thus far vs. how much is due to EJ himself?
No one has any idea until we get more data.
I'll use our current game plan over the last 2 games as an example: Would this be the gameplan GB would have used Aaron Rodgers in his post-Farve start? Of course not. So, does Aaron Rodgers first 16 games have much chance of telling us anything in relation to EJ's first 16 games? Not a chance in hell.
Using statistical analysis requires precision, it also requires knowing WTF you are doing. I've seen very little precision, all sorts of confidence bias, and hardly anyone demonstrating proficiency in this new "field" of "sports analytics" thus far. Football Outsiders and PFT are the only people "doing it right" and even they have flaws in their methods. The difference? They are competent enough to know about these flaws, they admit them, and they are trying to fix them. QBR is flawed as well, but, ESPN has decided that this is the best that can be done given the resources they are willing to put into it. Fine. At least it has a reasonable methodology.
In comparison, I hear morons talking about YPA, without even demonstrating the slightest correlation, never mind finding a propensity %, to winning/making the playoffs, not even a relationship to offensive proficiency/efficiency. Why? Because they haven't even bothered to set a F'ing baseline for these things.
Yards Per Attempt sits there like a burning pile of schit, and we have moronic "shamans" howling at the moon and dancing around it, and getting the same exact results in terms of predicting future results.
Here's another interesting, QBR-like approach to rating players. Methodology here: http://www.numberfir.../info/glossary/ First let me say, this is at least a competent effort.
The problem is, just like with QBR, and to quote the method explanation itself:
The "at least once" part is the issue. Using historical data in this manner doesn't account for deltas in team defensive schemes, or offensive schemes, nor does it account for individual opposing player's strengths weaknesses, nor does it account for time of game(or perhaps it does, but this doesn't say.)
This is why PFT's rating schema is superior: it compares player v. player, every play, all game. (But it has other problems that I won't get into here)
While it's fair to assume that "rare" plays, of the "at least once" variety have a reasonable chance of remaining "rare", how does it account for something like Converting a 4th Down and 32 with an inside handoff? That's an pretty rare/large achievement, and either indicative of one hell of a RB, or O line, or, indicative of a terrible D. Or, maybe it's merely a scheme thing? Time of game? Score? While, throwing for 6 yards on a slant, on 2nd/3rd and 5, all over the field, any time of game, happens all the time.
Thus, you're bound to have a bias in "expected successful outcome achieved" in "most common situation". You're going to see the pattern you are looking for(otherwised known as confidence bias) in the most common situations, precisely because they are so common, and precisely because teams use "common" approaches to solving "common" problems. Almost every QB in the league is capable of converting that slant, and they do, lots.
How therefore does any of this distinguish one QB from another? It over-credits QBs for making that play, and over-punishes QBs for not making it.
Now, consider the fact that 12 years ago, nobody was running the read/option, and there were very few true "running QBs", therefore, no LB had to account for the QB(except for a very few) taking off. Now, many teams are designing runs for QBs(The Dolphins designed 2 runs for Ryan F'ing Tannehill last game). Thus, the run action is making the passing game easier for those QBs who bring that threat to the game. (Ahem, look at Wilson, Kapernick, and to a lesser degree, EJ)
This is where QBR-like approaches fail. It's the threat of the run that they simply do not take into account. They try to measure and then weight a QB run as more equivalent to the pass, but only AFTER the fact.
Passing will, in the aggregate, be better for all QBs who can demonstrate both a competent pass and run threat, especially for teams that gameplan that very thing, thus causing defesnes to respond with appropriate gamplans. But, data from 12-5 years ago doesn't take that into account, does it? EDIT: At the very least, you've got one skew here. Maybe more than a few.
In closing, this methodology is well thought out, and is a responsible, competent effot. But, clearly, so are my criticisms of it.
The bottom line: proper weighting of the raw data, BEFORE it's put into the algorithms, is required to make this method more accurate. Either that, or somebody simply needs to show me the alogrithms, or, somebody simply needs to tell me that the alogrithms have taken everything I've said into account....and make me believe it(tough gig).
You know what I haven't had in a while? big league chew
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Kiko may have to earn his starting job back the way Preston Brown is playing.
Kiko is second string to no one, you must be hopped up on goofballs
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I think the bills not signing Spikes is becoming less and less likely.......
Team captain.....is huge on this defense.......
Brown will have to remain the understudy for now
I think spikes played about 15 snaps last sunday, he's looking like the odd man out at this point. At least against pass first teams (phins abandoned the run once they fell behind and lost moreno)
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I follow the team pretty closely, but haven't seen any info on this. Injury, behavioural issues?
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Friend sent me this pic taken in Buffalo...
I like to think that the hind legs are trampling a pile of dolphin carcasses
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When I read the title I thank it would be some punk talking about the Bills doing the impossible and beating the Jets twice. It was funny but then I laughed too hard and choked on my coffee so I wanted to take the guy and smack him eight ways from Sunday.
When I read it it was just about dumb plays that isn't going to work on the Jets when the time comes.
I'm glad yous guys won a game and I heard your staying in that podunk town which is good for you I guess and I'm glad to see none of you think you is gonna beat the Jets which is also good. So we're all good.
P.S. J-E-T-S Jets JEts JETS.
classy. a true ambassador
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Do you think we'll see it from Hackett anytime in the future? We got Goodwin and Sammy, both dangerous with a full head of steam. I think at least the threat of it would create more options. Whaddaya think?
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It looks like a sketch from the Tim and Eric show
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He just got cut, might be able to rekindle chemistry with watkins.. As long as we're scouring the earth for viable qbs
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The problem is lack of real competition. He has the job no matter what
there is no competition because they wouldn't even consider it in the offseason, another form of coddling EJ. Totally agree with OP, just watched the short post game presser where at one point, he says "talking to coach hackett, coach downing, they told me I did a good job so I was happy with that". That sounds like a helpless child in need of approval to me. I've been very patient with Manuel, but he is not NFL talent, over his head, and clearly delusional. And Hackett is terrible. People throw up offensive stats to stand by these guys, but if you get away from the stats and just watch the game, it couldn't be any clearer that they simply aren't good enough.
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Come up to Halle Saale, me and a buddy from Rochester watch every game! Realistically though, There should be an American sportsbar with sunday ticket in Munich
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B word slap da boss and spit on his wife. You shouldn't be working there.
B word slap da boss and spit on his wife. You shouldn't be working there.
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I'm sure Hackett works as hard as anyone, and that his wealth of knowledge and passion will be valuable assets to the Bills O this year. What I don't like though is the go, go, go as fast as you can strategy that he insists on (he has explicitly stated this as his philosophy in multiple interviews). Perfect example of its downside: going into the 4th against the pats opening day last year with a lead (if my memory serves me correctly), they ran the hurry up and had back-to-back 3 and outs. This of course gave Brady more opportunities to save the day, which he predictably did. This tone-deaf attitude is too simplistic in the pros: I really think you have to adjust according your team's performance at the time, as well as the opponent's performance and the overall rhythm of the game. Pettine actually mentioned this in one of his recent interviews. I mean, even Manning and Brady have quiet games from time to time, so how do we expect Manuel to run the hurry-up without slumps and periods of ineffectiveness? The stacked backfield can compensate for a streaky pass game, but to me, keeping the offense in 5th gear at all times is disconcerting. Thoughts?
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A lot of new pieces due to FA and a draft with a ton of picks. Will all of the big names (CJ2K, Decker, Vick) form a potent offense to complement their always formidable defense? Or will this fall apart like so many hastily put together teams have in the past?
Favorite moment as a Bills fan
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted · Edited by billsgpr88
he last pick by drayton florence was incredible.
http://www.buffalobills.com/video/videos/WK3-Cant-Miss-Play-Florence-pick-six/39c6c34c-9fc6-4255-b39e-1372cfef7075