billsgpr88
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Posts posted by billsgpr88
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Robey. He is one of the quickest to jump routes and also was great blitzing under pettines d.
anybody remember both Miami games in 2013?
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Phillip Dorsett went to Miami, not Ohio State like the article states. I don't why, but that kinda stuff drives me nuts. You're getting paid to do what a lot of people do for fun on TBD. The least you can do is get it right
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A lot of praise for Miller coming from everyone on the coaching staff.
Forget it Jonny, you are out of your element! You have no frame of reference here, Jonny. You're like a child who wanders into the middle of a movie and wants to know...
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He wasnt that good. If I recall correctly from last season, he wasn't even getting that many snaps. That says something. He's getting old. I'd like to say best of luck, but screw the guy for all I care.
Getting old? The guy's 27. I know we're all rooting for the home team, but come on let's at least try to be objective
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i'd say his status is rocky at best...he's going to need a good camp to put him over the top
He may be expendable.
Have you seen how hard he hits? He completely destroys guys over the middle. Just pure demolition man
Jokes, bladiebla, jokes. That being said the guy had 16 picks in college, I think he has potential (especially with Donnie Henderson, Dennis Thurman coaching him up)
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Have you seen how hard he hits? He completely destroys guys over the middle. Just pure demolition man
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Over the past two years, the stellar play of the defense has been eclipsed by stagnant, predictable, incompentent offense. Everyone on TBD may have different theories on why the O was bad, but I think we can all agree that it was bad. It is a total cliche, but I blamed the playcalling most of the time; from the moment I saw the hurry-up offense towards the end of the Pats game in the 2013 opener I lost faith (it may have been a premature reaction, but not running the clock out at all when you're up by one in the 4th quarter against tom brady was just disgraceful). Fast forward to the present day and now we got G-Ro (thank you EJ for coining that name) at the helm. I wanted to get an idea of his past, as I don't know much about the 49ers. So I checked out the following message board
http://www.49erswebzone.com/forum/niners/168162-greg-roman-really-good/page270/
predictably, there were a lot of disgruntled fans that had to witness a talented team fall apart at the seams last year. But their gripes reminded me of my own during the Marrone/Hackett era; not utilizing the talents of the skill players, very little in-game adjustments, etc. Although I definitely expect an upgrade from Hackett, it worries me to think that they won't utilize our wideouts enough (we have to get the ball to Sammy, alot), not make the proper adjustments, and not stretch the field vertically enough (this has been a problem for the Bills since Bledsoe was under center). What do you think? Is anyone around here familiar with Greg Roman's playcalling/ in-game adjustment effectiveness? I'm all ears
GO BILLS
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I think everyone on TSW is speculating on which RBs will make it on the final roster, and so am I. There are way too many mouths to feed in the backfield, and if Greg Roman's playcalling history is any indication of how the opportunities will be distributed, it looks like Shady will get the vast majority of touches (see Frank Gore). That being said, I don't get how so many of you guys are counting out Fredex. The age is clearly the biggest issue and without watching the game, doubting the 34-year-old guy playing the position that causes the most wear and tear is very sensible conclusion to come to. But Jackson is not your typical back. If he relied and top end speed and agility, or running guys over with brute force, he would've burned out a long time ago (the demise of most backs in the league). But Jackson doesn't rely on being athletically superior to anyone on the field; as you've all witnessed, he uses patience, vision and balance to optimize the space he is given, often just out of would-be tacklers reach and always falling forward.
The criticism I read here is that he's lost a step, but I don't see it. He is the guy that saved us in the opener last year against the Bears, despite critics saying the same thing. What has to be acknowledged is the complete lack of creativity and competence of the offensive playcalling last year, which I blame for the stagnant running game even more than the poor line play. Jackson's skill as a back (let's not forget his blocking) far outweighs the athleticism of most other backs, because a lot of them are more athletic and literally all of them are younger. Until he truly shows a drop off in performance, I'm not counting him out.
Ultimately its Whaley's decision to make, and by judging his moves to get Brown and drafting Williams I don't think he shares my opinion.
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I don't think the penalty will concern Belicheck as much as the association of his legacy with cheating. From the perspective of non-patriots fans, this penalty verifies the fact that the pats cheated and will always be inextricably linked with Belicheck. The media really downplayed spygate, but really jumped all over Brady this time around. When the Patriots/Belicheck dynasty comes up in conversations in the future, the first thought that will pop up in most fans' minds is 'oh, you mean the guys that cheated? I remember them'
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Assuming that Brady acted on his own accord, imagine how pissed Belicheck is at him right now
There's a fitting german word for what we're all experiencing right now, and that is schadenfreude -
either Maxx Williams or Quinten Rollins, I'm sure it's one of these guys if they're still available
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Just watched Preston Brown interview, and he stressed how much he wanted Spikes back. He's underrated as a run stuffer and the kinda guy want on your goal line defense, if you know what I'm trying to say. The guy walked on the team and was elected as a team captain after a couple of months last year. The price tag is low, just get it done already and free up draft picks for OL/DL.
GO BILLS
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Week 3 of 2011, it was the last home game I attended. We came back from a 21-10 halftime score to defeat Tom Brady and the Pats* 34-31 and Tom Brady threw 4 picks. When the game ended nearly the entire stadium stayed in their seats and cheered for probably 15 minutes, but it felt like an hour, and it felt absolutely amazing.
he last pick by drayton florence was incredible.
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Better prepare yourself. He will not make it out of training camp.
This prediction is baseless. He was the best back on the team last year, and his style doesn't rely on being the fastest or most agile guy on the field; that's why he's lasted so long. And btw, he's without a doubt one of the top blocking halfbacks in the league. You don't think Greg Roman appreciates that?
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Curious for you Shaq Thompson hopefuls, since he's somewhat undersized would you want him to play OLB or step in at SS?
His versatility is what intrigues me. Rex would probably use him as both a safety or OLB, depending on the Situation (eg: safety on short yardage/running situations, and OLB on passing downs).
Completely unrelated, but I think Robey is going to have a big year. His ball-hawking instincts and blitzing abilities will be optimized by Rex (see 2013 season with Pettine).
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laken tomlinson, shaq thompson, or bernard mckinney
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Bust: Bryce Petty. don't see him ever dissecting a pro defense
Sleeper: Karlos Williams. Raw at RB (switched from safety), but has great speed for his size.
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I know we all want to look for reasons as to why ej hasn't panned out yet. The fact is, and it pains me to say this, but he cannot read a defense and he absolutely cannot throw accurate balls consistently. Nothing is going to change those shortcomings
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NO. LET ME TELL YOU WHY
he isn't good enough. In particular, his vision, accuracy, and decision-making are not good enough. Manuel defenders can look at statistics that show he is comparable to hall of fame quarterbacks in the beginning of their respective careers, but those guys showed potential. Manuel clearly doesn't pass the eye test. I get nervous every time he lets go of the ball because I have no idea where it's going to go. He stares down receivers as hard as any NFL qb I've ever seen, and he barely ever makes use of his strong arm. That last part could change, but I think he has a low ceiling for the innate talent to read defenses and throw the ball accurately.
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congratulations, you were able to display your ignorance in the very first word you typed.
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He's not an NFL qb. Deal with it.
I wanted him to be one as much as anyone else, believe me. I was lying to myself saying he could be. He has so many things you would want in a starting QB and a face of a franchise: a big guy with a big arm, athleticism to run if he needs to, a good looking guy who never gets in trouble off the field and works his butt off all year. But the simple truth is, he doesn't have the talent.
He never hits a receiver in stride. He can't read a defense. He won't throw it downfield until they're behind and need a comeback. He has never shown the ability to be consistently accurate. And he doesn't show the qualities of being a leader during the game (when was the last time we saw a Bills QB riling up the team, or get in guys' faces on the sidelines? I want someone who wants to win more than anyone else on the team).
Everyone talks about development. I see posts of misleading statistics of other QBs that became elite, or QBs that sat on the bench for a few years (Brees, Eli, Rogers, etc.). But all of those guys showed potential. You could see them thread the needle in tight coverage, or make multiple reads until they found the wide open guy. You could see them playing to win and not playing not to lose. EJ's stats may be comparable to some of those guys in his young career, but he absolutely DOES NOT PASS THE EYEBALL TEST. You can see his lack of skills, and his fear of making a mistake (how many audibles for running plays have we seen?). It seems as though Marrone has realized this, and the sooner the better.
Hackett is also to blame, but that is a whole other thread
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D line ravages
Rivers yelling at teammates
media eats crow
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Horsecrap. 16 games started is the only real measurement we can use. What's the alternative? Running Madden simulations for the 6 games EJ didn't play last year?
(You know it wouldn't surprise me...) Letting yet another "sports analytics" clown fail at doing my job, causing me to have to post, yet again, another long refutation of their idiot methodolgy?(Past examples: "Road Wins Against Playoff Teams"
, "Yards Per Attempt" )Ridiculous comparison. Was Aaron Rodgers starting games those 3 years? No.
In fact, you're proving my point for me: any analyis of a drafted-->starting QB is relatively pointless, even after 16 games, because of the plethora of variables that cannot be accounted for in a SANE manner.
Why is it that for last 20 years, we have always reserved "bust" status until 3 years after a player was drated, and rarely declared someone a bust until they demonstrate absolute suckitude consistently? Because that's the rational approach.
Suddenly, due to a few outliers like Kapernick and Wilson, we are supposed to throw away everything we know about the college-->NFL transition? Who the F gave that order, and why the hell are we following it? Again, there are FAR too many variables(like, um, the strength of both SF and SEA defenses?) to pretend we know a damn thing about Kapernick or Wilson or EJ so far.
Question: How much is EJ been benefitting from our D/ST(like Kap and Wilson have) thus far vs. how much is due to EJ himself?
No one has any idea until we get more data.
I'll use our current game plan over the last 2 games as an example: Would this be the gameplan GB would have used Aaron Rodgers in his post-Farve start? Of course not. So, does Aaron Rodgers first 16 games have much chance of telling us anything in relation to EJ's first 16 games? Not a chance in hell.
Using statistical analysis requires precision, it also requires knowing WTF you are doing. I've seen very little precision, all sorts of confidence bias, and hardly anyone demonstrating proficiency in this new "field" of "sports analytics" thus far. Football Outsiders and PFT are the only people "doing it right" and even they have flaws in their methods. The difference? They are competent enough to know about these flaws, they admit them, and they are trying to fix them. QBR is flawed as well, but, ESPN has decided that this is the best that can be done given the resources they are willing to put into it. Fine. At least it has a reasonable methodology.
In comparison, I hear morons talking about YPA, without even demonstrating the slightest correlation, never mind finding a propensity %, to winning/making the playoffs, not even a relationship to offensive proficiency/efficiency. Why? Because they haven't even bothered to set a F'ing baseline for these things.
Yards Per Attempt sits there like a burning pile of schit, and we have moronic "shamans" howling at the moon and dancing around it, and getting the same exact results in terms of predicting future results.
Here's another interesting, QBR-like approach to rating players. Methodology here: http://www.numberfir.../info/glossary/ First let me say, this is at least a competent effort.
The problem is, just like with QBR, and to quote the method explanation itself:
The "at least once" part is the issue. Using historical data in this manner doesn't account for deltas in team defensive schemes, or offensive schemes, nor does it account for individual opposing player's strengths weaknesses, nor does it account for time of game(or perhaps it does, but this doesn't say.)
This is why PFT's rating schema is superior: it compares player v. player, every play, all game. (But it has other problems that I won't get into here)
While it's fair to assume that "rare" plays, of the "at least once" variety have a reasonable chance of remaining "rare", how does it account for something like Converting a 4th Down and 32 with an inside handoff? That's an pretty rare/large achievement, and either indicative of one hell of a RB, or O line, or, indicative of a terrible D. Or, maybe it's merely a scheme thing? Time of game? Score? While, throwing for 6 yards on a slant, on 2nd/3rd and 5, all over the field, any time of game, happens all the time.
Thus, you're bound to have a bias in "expected successful outcome achieved" in "most common situation". You're going to see the pattern you are looking for(otherwised known as confidence bias) in the most common situations, precisely because they are so common, and precisely because teams use "common" approaches to solving "common" problems. Almost every QB in the league is capable of converting that slant, and they do, lots.
How therefore does any of this distinguish one QB from another? It over-credits QBs for making that play, and over-punishes QBs for not making it.
Now, consider the fact that 12 years ago, nobody was running the read/option, and there were very few true "running QBs", therefore, no LB had to account for the QB(except for a very few) taking off. Now, many teams are designing runs for QBs(The Dolphins designed 2 runs for Ryan F'ing Tannehill last game). Thus, the run action is making the passing game easier for those QBs who bring that threat to the game. (Ahem, look at Wilson, Kapernick, and to a lesser degree, EJ)
This is where QBR-like approaches fail. It's the threat of the run that they simply do not take into account. They try to measure and then weight a QB run as more equivalent to the pass, but only AFTER the fact.
Passing will, in the aggregate, be better for all QBs who can demonstrate both a competent pass and run threat, especially for teams that gameplan that very thing, thus causing defesnes to respond with appropriate gamplans. But, data from 12-5 years ago doesn't take that into account, does it? EDIT: At the very least, you've got one skew here. Maybe more than a few.
In closing, this methodology is well thought out, and is a responsible, competent effot. But, clearly, so are my criticisms of it.
The bottom line: proper weighting of the raw data, BEFORE it's put into the algorithms, is required to make this method more accurate. Either that, or somebody simply needs to show me the alogrithms, or, somebody simply needs to tell me that the alogrithms have taken everything I've said into account....and make me believe it(tough gig).
You know what I haven't had in a while? big league chew
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Kiko may have to earn his starting job back the way Preston Brown is playing.
Kiko is second string to no one, you must be hopped up on goofballs
Don't sleep on .....................
in The Stadium Wall Archives
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I also think Rambo has a chance to be a playmaker. And on offense, tyrod if given the chance. The wideouts were singing his praises, and I remember a preseason game where they were interviewing ray Lewis while tyrod was playing, and Lewis couldn't say enough good things about him. High praise coming from one of the goats