Section242
-
Posts
585 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Gallery
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by Section242
-
-
Obviously Brady. Also the list of horrible QB's every other team in the division has had is remarkable. Just going off the top of my head the next best QB the Bills, Jets, or Dolphins have had was Pennington.
-
Skips role at ESPN is to say something outlandish to get attention. Sherman looks as bad if not worse.
-
I understand what you are saying....and you are right that my studies are relatively exclusive in their criteria. This is due to the focused question I used for the reason of the studies. In regards to the QB position though, I tend to think that it is pretty spot on in relation to producing solid starting QBs......particularly how it relates to the position the Bills find themselves in at the moment.
It is extremely rare for a QB to be retained by their drafting team and become minimally a solid starter for the team that drafts them if the QB has not shown themselves to be of that level within their first 4-5 years. Conversely, it is extremely rare for a QB that has become a solid starter for the drafting team to be let go by that team after the first 4-5 years.
Though there is a small number of QBs who then bounce around the league.....eventually maturing to have a few good seasons of QB play, that is of no use to the drafting team(in our case the Bills).
For a quick double check.....here are a list of 2nd(non-top 32 picks), 3rd & 4th round QBs over a 10 year span(2001-2010).
I will bold any QB who even remotely resembles a multi year starter.
2nd Round: (0 of 11)
Quincy Carter, Marques Tuiasosopo, Kellen Clemens, Tarvaris Jackson, Kevin Kolb, John Beck, Drew Stanton, Brian Brohm, Chad Henne, Pat White, Jimmy Clausen
3rd Round: (1 of 12)
Josh McCown, Dave Ragone, Chris Simms, Matt Schaub, Charlie Frye, Andrew Walter, David Greene, Charlie Whitehurst, Brodie Croyle, Trent Edwards, Kevin O'Connell, Colt McCoy
4th Round: (2 of 12)
Chris Weinke, Sage Rosenfels, Jesse Palmer, David Garrard, Rohan Davey, Seneca Wallace, Luke McCown, Kyle Orton, Stefan Lefors, Isaiah Stanback, Stephen McGee, Mike Kafka
Overall from 10 years of 2nd-4th round QB drafting.....3 of 35 (8.6%)(1 in 11.7)
Kyle Orton......played just well enough to have 2 teams try(& succeed) to replace him in his first 5 years.......a team(Bills) desperate for a QB wouldn't want him(may as well keep Fitz).
David Garrard.....didn't become a factor for the Jags till 4 years after drafting.....started 76 games for them.....IMO, no good for the Bills needs....but include him if you like.
Matt Schaub.....unusual circumstances.....only 2 start for drafting team Falcons.....include him as well.
Overall numbers for 10 years of 2nd-4th round QB drafting.....2 of 35 (5.7%)(1 in 17.5)
If the Bills think that they have a reasonble chance to "find a QB" in the 2nd round then their new analytics department is not doing a very good job.
I agree with you. Though guys aren't going to get the same opportunity as guys taken in the 1st. I don't think their is a team that has invested less in terms of drafting a QB over the last 5 years than the Bills. Take a guy at 41 and the Bills are awful again and they've got an opportunity to take Manziel or Bridgewater then they've gotta take em. With new CBA it's the franchise crushing blow if you miss on a QB as it would've been 5 years ago. Not taking a guy above the 7th rd since Edwards shows how inept Nix has been.
More film on guys leads to more scrutiny and their stock falling. Locker was a likely number 1 overall pick had he left early, Barkley's stock has fallen, Leinart was a likely top pick had he left early. Leinart obviously is a bust and Locker hasn't shown much. A down year for Manziel I think his height will be scrutinized, if Louisville has a bad year then Bridgewater gets squeezed.
-
All of the quarterbacks are not equally bad.
Geno Smith would be a Top 10 pick in most years.
> Last year he would have gone after RGIII, but likely before Tannehill
> In 2011, he would have probably gone after Cam Newton, but before Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert or Christian Ponder
> In 2010, he would have gone after Sam Bradford, but before Tim Tebow or Jimmy Clausen
> In 2009, he would have gone after Stafford and probably would have pushed Sanchez for the next QB off the board.
> In 2008, he probably would be taken after Matt Ryan, but before Joe Flacco.
Unless we completely bottom out (less than 3 wins) or trade up one of these years, drafting a quarterback rated as high as Geno Smith is the best we can EVER hope for.
Barkley probably would've gone before Tannehill last year also.
-
A passing league and the Bills have nobody to throw the ball and one NFL caliber WR. So take an offensive lineman? If Nix goes o-line with the 8th pick the game has passed him by more than I thought. It's not 1980's football.
-
1. Barkley 2. Patterson 3. Geno 4. Jones 5. Milliner 6. Eifert 7. Vaccaro 8. Elam
-
For what? Why bring in a guy who isn't good enough to start in the league to compete with two other guys who aren't good enough?
-
I still dont want Smith. I just dont think he is very good.
I'll be interested to see how many QBs go before the Bills pick. I could see anywhere from none to 3.
I read in an article quoting some NFL scout that its believe in NFL circle that the Bills are targeting Nassib, and are hoping to get him in the 2nd (thats an obvious assumption, who knows if its warranted). But the scout went on to say that teams know that if their team wants Nassib, they need to leapfrog Buffalo to get in front of them, and he said teams are preparring to do that.
Basically, I dont think there will be any QBs left by the time our 2nd round pick comes along
Ive read other people posting the same thing. If Barkley or Smith are available at the 8th pick and the Bills pass the next spot barring a trade would be Houston at 27. This then leads to the 2nd rd with Philly, Jax, and possibly Ariz as possible teams that could take a QB. I think the Bills will have an opportunity to draft Wilson, Nassib, Bray, and maybe Glennon in the 2nd.
-
none of them, that is why this is a poor QB draft they all have talents and flaws or are just average.
The most clutch QB in College football is Johny Manziel and hopefully by some miracle we draft him next year.
Manziel had one game where he lead a winning drive in the last two minutes. He was bad in the 2nd half vs LSU and UF.
Analytics in other sports and I say this because I haven't read any that would break down a QB's numbers in the last 4 minutes of a game point to most guys playing the way they always play in "stressful," or "clutch" situations. If it's true in football a bad QB will be bad in the last 4 minutes of a game i.e. Fitz and a good QB will be good in the last two minutes i.e. Brady.
-
Some perspective. Both Barkley and Smith played for mature college programs who consistently reloaded with A list recruits. Compare that to Syra cuse, a college program that was in shambles and haven't recruited an A lister in years. Compare the supporting cast each QB had. Remove the qb from their respective teams. WV & USC don't miss a beat. With Nassib out of the Syracuse lineup they don't win a damn game. Nassib was the heart and soul of his team. Smith had Tavon Austin, one of the most electrifying players in college. Barkely threw to the most polished wr in college and an excellent offensive line.
Nassib carried his team on his back. The supporting cast supplemented Barkley & Smith. Questioning Nassib's arm strength is ridiculous. He may not have the strongest arm in the draft, but he's the strongest, toughest, and smartest by a mile. On the engagement factor, he's off the charts and will put more time into the game than either Barkley or Smith.
Did you see USC play with Wittack?
-
If they pick an O-lineman in the first, it will be a clear indicator of how bad this "new" regime will play out.
Simply put, bad teams should never, ever spend a 1st round pick on O-line. There is never a bigger waste of a pick.
I agree. It's a passing league the philosophy of building from the inside out has passed. Especially if you don't have a QB and have 1 NFL caliber WR.
-
If they go that route, they'll draft a T, not a G.
Still a horrible decision. The team has 1 NFL caliber WR, nothing at LB, and are pathetic at QB. The perception seems to be that drafting an offensive lineman is the safe route. I'd consider taking an offensive lineman no earlier than the 5th rd.
I would be ok with it under a very specific set of circumstances:
1) The Bills aren't willing to trade up to ensure they get Geno Smith
2) Geno Smith isn't available at pick #8 (I don't trust Barkley)
3) We decide that the money that it would take to keep on Levitre would be better served by getting 3-4 new free agents in that will immediate gaps at SS, WR and LB
4) Whoever is brought in is an absolute stud in the trenches and would be an immediate starter
5) we take a QB at the first possible opportunity in round 2
This is the only set of conditions where this would seem acceptable, considering the gaping holes we have everywhere else.
Other than that, we have a lot of probe
Wouldn't most say that about any guy drafted?
As for #3 I think they've decided the money that would be used to re-sign Levitre would be better used trying to re-sign Wood.
-
You may be right. But we can't afford to keep building with someone else's talent. It's not economically feasible and several teams have proved that it just doesn't work. Remember the Redskins before Shanny?
Proved or proven?
The Redskins were as bad as the Bills before RG3. They lost their best defensive player and were a division champ. Trent Williams and Alfred Morris are nice homegrown talents for the Redskins who wouldn't matter without a good QB.
-
Offensive line would be a horrible 1st rd pick. Why is it considered a safe pick? Guards just don't matter enough to take early.
-
Qbs in this draft just seem putrid compared to last years group.
Rg3, luck and Wilson all took poor teams from the prior year to the playoffs.
Tannehill and Weedon show promise, and cousins and Foles even looked ok in spot duty.
If this years group was in last years draft, I am not even sure how much would have been impacted.
Barkley was talked about going 3rd last year.
-
A rookie QB gives a coach some leeway. Even if take one in the 2nd and he's a disaster that would leave the door open to take one in 2014. Since Buddy Nix arrived i'm not sure a team has invested less in terms of drafting a QB. Even the Pats took Mallet. Before that they took O'Connell who flamed out. Denver took Osweiler after getting Manning.
-
Kyle Williams won't be 30 til June.
-
The point I think people are saying with passing on Smith at 8 is that, there really isn't much of a drop-off from him to the Bray's of the world. If he's there at 8 and some team wants to give us another second we'd be fools not to take that deal. Not that I care much what the experts are saying on Smith and the rest of the QB crop, but what they are saying isn't good, and that should make you at least a bit worried. Lets face it, the MISTAKE if anything would be the Bills reaching this year. Go with sure talent at WR/LB, and draft a QB as a project, Manuel, Nassib, Bray, any of these guys will be there 2nd maybe 3rd round. Don't drink the Kool Aid, and to be honest I don't think Marrone and Nix are, so lets hope.
Tim-
Jones has the neck issue, Te'o has the imaginary girlfriend, and Ogletree has character issues. Patterson had one year at the major college level. They're far from sure things.
If Smith is available at 8 and the Bills pass on him he's going to have a Brady Quinn/Aaron Rodgers like fall.
-
If he's available at 8 then the other teams likely to draft a QB passed on him
-
He produced on the field.
-
Bro you need a dictionary and some keyboarding skills. My lorddddd
IIRC, Carroll has only drafted 1 USC player since he signed on in Seattle. And it was like a 5th rounder. He's brought in other guys as street FAs, but not broke the bank for them. Its a crazy notion
Spurrier brought in a bunch of his former guys when he was coaching Washington and fell on his face.
-
Letting good players go and having to draft to replace them rather than improve at other positions is seemingly what the Bills do at CB. Just get the deal done with Levitre.
-
I have actually seen a person wearing a Wang jersey every home game for the past few seasons. Calling him bad is a compliment.
-
Nerlens Noel who is considered the top NBA prospect just tore his ACL and had insurance. I'd be willing to guess all the top prospects do this.
Preliminary Mock - Any Changes Needed?
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
I think you're going to have to give up too much to get him.