FireChan
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Someone told me to come look at this thread, so I did. Of course, it's impossible to read the whole thing or, frankly, to even follow the last couple of pages. Anyway, I'll tell you what I think about Tyrod. A lot of you know me and maybe you've heard it before.
1. I like Taylor. Great athlete, good arm, dedication, running is a plus. I've heard all the arguments about anticipation, throwing people open, seeing the field, throwing over the middle, too short. All possible, but I'm not convinced of any of that, not yet. Could be true, but I think he's still growing, and I want to see another year out of him.
2. I SERIOUSLY doubt that the Bills were going to cut Taylor. There were plenty of rumors, and so far as I could tell, they all were started by the press, that the Bills were going to cut him and that Whaley didn't want him. Everyone got all excited about that. No one got excited when, in the last few weeks, all the press rumors were that the Bills would keep him.
Why do I doubt they'd cut him? Because he played starter-quality football for two seasons, because starters are hard to find and because the Bills couldn't expect to find a starter in the draft or free agency. The Bills were NOT going to start over at quarterback. They might keep looking for one better than Taylor; I think they should. But they are not going to leave themselves in the same position they did with Manuel - a rookie start or a journeyman failure as the only options. Taylor is a legitimate threat at QB, and until the Bills get someone better, they are not going to let him go.
3. So what was going on with Taylor's contract? My theory is this: Taylor is ambitious, wants to start, has a lot of confidence in himself and expects to get paid eventually. He took a cheap contract to be a starter in Buffalo when he left the Ravens. Why did he take so little? Because he had the option to get out after two seasons, and he knew if he started somewhere he'd get paid a lot more. That's exactly what happened. He played well his first season in Buffalo, and the Bills didn't want to lose him after the second season and they didn't want to have to match some other team's offer. Still, they wanted the right to cut him if he flopped his second season. Taylor didn't want to get tied up long-term unless he got some real money. So they negotiated the six-year deal, Taylor gets decent money if he stays and the Bills get the option to get out of the deal if they didn't like his 2016.
So then Taylor has a decent but uninspiring 2016 and the Bills aren't sure they want him on the terms of the contract. Plus, they want some cap relief. So they talk to Taylor, not to cut him but to get the right to cut him in another year without a huge cap hit. Taylor says you can't have it both ways. If you want the right to get out, then I want to have the right to get out too. So they agree to a two-year deal. For two years Taylor gets paid more or less what he would have made in two years under the deal. What did Taylor give up? The third year guaranteed. Why did he do that? Because he's confident in his ability, and it's much more likely than not that he can get $10 million a year somewhere in 2019, in which case he's no worse off than he was under his original Buffalo deal. In other words, because the Bills wanted to keep Taylor for 2017 and maybe 18 before committing to him long-term, Taylor got the right, again, to be a free agent in the prime of his career. Good deal for both sides.
4. Why was there no more interest in Taylor? As someone pointed out, he wasn't a free agent and it's tampering to talk contracts with someone who isn't a free agent. It happens, I know, when a guy's contract is expiring, but Taylor's contract wasn't expiring. If anyone had talked contract with Taylor, that would have affected the Bills' ability to renegotiate - they would have screamed tampering. Teams lose draft picks for tampering.
Don't think for a minute teams weren't interested. Six teams, at least, would be markedly improve their QB situation with Taylor. You think the Jets woudn't have grabbed him? And don't argue that no one was interested because Taylor is a marginal QB. Taylor's stats for 2016 were mediocre; in 2015 they were great. He played all of 2016 injured. He didn't have his #1 receiver, and he didn't have much of anything else in the receiving department. He played for a dysfunctional head coach.
Taylor would have gotten $15 million a year for a few years if he'd hit the market, probably more. Now he's going to start for the Bills for 2017. If he has a season like he did in 2015, guess what? The Bills will be back at the negotiating table AGAIN, because they won't want him to be come a free agent in 2018. If he has a mediocre 2017, they'll roll the dice and let him play out his contract. If he's great in 2018, it'll cost the Bills a lot to keep him. If he's mediocre, they'll let him walk and he'll get $20-30 million guaranteed someplace else.
5. OF COURSE, McDermott wanted to keep him, and if you want to say it was driven by fear, fine. You can call it fear, but it's better described as brains. You're taking over a team that led the league in rushing for two consecutive years in no small part because you have the best running QB in the league. He also happens to have a passer rating around the top 10 in the league over the past two seasons. You're going to let him go so WHO can be your QB? WHO? It would be a colossally dumb move in your first year as an NFL head coach to dump your team's starting QB in favor of no one just so you can put your mark on the team. Who would do that?
Have you heard of the legal tampering period? TT had a whole day to talk to other teams. If the Browns were gonna give him $10M more than the Bills and the starting job, why would he stay?
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I'm not saying that Bridgewater had elite talent at WR in 2015 but are you gonna honestly try and tell me that the Bills haven't had a bottom five WR corps (factoring in Watkins' missed time) over the last two seasons? And again, Bridgewater has not played at the level Taylor has yet. The numbers clearly show that. Not to mention, Taylor is the most dynamic running QB in the league. Could he eclipse Taylor if healthy? Sure. But even that's not a given.
Sammy played 13 games in 2015. Holy smokes dude. 13 games of Watkins, a #2 pick in Woods, Chris Hogan of NE fame, and Charles top 10 TE Clay is a bottom 5 group? This is like the anti-OL debate.
I still take Teddy going forward. Rich Gannon probably isn't gonna happen.
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Dude. He's been in the league six years. And you're telling me he was "mediocre" for the first four? This idea that he should be expected to be at the level of a guy who's ACTUALLY PLAYED for six years is ludicrous. And Bridgewater was throwing to "garbage men?" Aside from a hobbled Sammy Watkins who plays half the time and Robert Woods who's a #3 WR, he has spent the last two years throwing to mid season scrap heap pickups. That's a wash there. And, as has been discussed ad nauseum, if the Bills' defense didn't s**t the bed the last two seasons, they would've made the playoffs by now too. The Bills offense has been decidedly better each of the last two seasons than the Vikings' was their playoff year. I feel like you're smarter than this. You're like a Trump surrogate on CNN who has to stand their ground and defend their stance even when they know they sound ridiculous.
No, it's not. TT had Sammy Watkins for half his games, lots of Woods and Clay. Teddy had the 1st round pick who caught one pass, and a fifth round WR. So no.
I take Teddy over TT all day. Sorry dude. Hopefully TT can be our Rich Gannon, but I'm not holding my breath.
Teddy 11-5 last season he played. TT 7-8.
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He may never play again, and you'd have to eat Tyrod's bonus and U'd make that trade?? Insanity...
Don't get the Bridgewater love... he doesn't impress me and his numbers are like Tyrod's minus the rushing yards. Never threw for more than 14 TDs in a season, and had the best running back in the NFL.
Well, without the money involved. Player for player.
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See this is where I find it difficult to take you seriously. You are so adamantly anti-Tyrod but Teddy Bridgewater was destined for greatness? Would I trade Taylor for Bridgewater prior to his injury? Maybe? But Taylor has played at a higher level for two years than Bridgewater ever has. You are so fixated on young guys' upside while so certain that Tyrod Taylor couldn't possibly ever improve. There's a good chance Deshaun Watson never plays at Tyrod Taylor's level in this league. The last game Taylor played in was maybe the best of his career. Let's just let it all play out.
Lol, Teddy is throwing to garbage men, took his team to the postseason in his second year, and I would trade TT straight up for him today.
Ya'll are holding out hope that TT is the 1 QB in a million who magically improves after being mediocre for 7 years. Might as well hold out that we draft the next Brady in the 6th.
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Because he is virtually guaranteed to be the Bills starter. And, who said that another team was offering him more than his current Bills contract? Who said he had been offered the starting job somewhere else? If he lights it up, and becomes the franchise guy, he increases his value, and can renegotiate a better contract, or sign somewhere else in three years.
The point I was debating with Old School was whether there was interest from other teams, and whether he had other options. OS implied there weren't any, and I disagree. I think you have a tendency to read others' post through the lens of your own agenda, which, currently, is distinctly anti-Tyrod.
That's what Old School was trying to say I think. He took a paycut because he wasn't gonna get that money elsewhere. And he thought the Bills may not keep him at his original price point.
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If he solidifies is position as the Bills' starter, and becomes our franchise QB, then the paycheck will come. Sign as a backup somewhere else, and a backup he remains. I believe this is his mindset. High risk- high reward vs. low risk- low reward. I believe he has that much faith in his ability.
Why not go be a starter for the 4 other teams without QB's?
Besides, he's under contract for 3 more seasons at least now. When is this payday coming?
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I guess that's where it's sketchy to me. What if TP loves Trubisky but Whaley prefers Watson?
Well said
I know that I sound like a broken record but what is TP's role in the process? If he prefers a certain guy does he ultimately make the call? If so, that's a problem.
Then we're taking Mitch.
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He was?!? News to me! Thanks for the update!
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It doesn't change what I said. You hire people to make those decisions. They are more qualified to do the job. The CEO of an airline isn't more qualified to fly a plane than the pilot.
Sports are different from other businesses in that your assets are your liabilities.
I think that's fair Chan. That's why I bring it up.
Pegula likes to be involved. For better or for worse, that's who runs our team. He likes his HC and GM to make independent arguments, and he picks the winner.
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That doesn't answer the question. Who should decide the team needs? The football people or the owner?
Should, football. Does, owner.
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Who do you think is the best player, fit for the Bills new offense, fit for what the Bills want/need right now out of a rookie QB, and value? Projected rounds are according to CBS Sports as of today.... opinions may differ but they are probably generally accurate as to where the Bills would need to select each player. If you wish, comment with your reasons as to why you choose that QB for this specific team with the above factors.
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/
For those new to TBD since last draft, we ran this poll in 2016 and the poll winner was indeed who the Bills selected... very interesting to look back!
Poll should be public Yolo, how else are we supposed to get our adoration?
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I would have paid Foles 6 million for one year.
Well that's crazy. There's just no way Lesean McCoy would have as much success with Nick Foles as his QB as he did with Tyrod.
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Neither are stars. Teddy threw 54 MPH.
He didn't throw at the combine. Nice try.
They are both quality starters in the NFL and if Teddy hadn't gotten a freak injury, he had a very promising career ahead of him.
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The argument is not that arm is the only factor. Don't spin it.
Fine, who are comparable NFL stars with Watson's arm strength?
Teddy I'd say is right there. Alex Smith. At least.
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We might not have the MPH on Stafford, Luck or Carr but they all have obvious arm talent.
You're right in that there are gaps in the data but the principle is correct. Weak armed QB's are at a SIGNIFICANT disadvantage. This is shown time and time again when a backup who can't make all the throws required is on the field and it limits the offense.
I am with Shanahan on this, great arm talent is what you want as it puts defenses in much more compromising positions.
What an argument. Yeah we don't have the data but we know what they were throwing.
More importantly, we have no idea if it's possible for a a successful QB to just have a bad day and throw like crap. It happens all the time in baseball.
The low number argument is silly. Of course the reason Blake Sims sucked was because of his poor arm. If Connor Shaw could throw a little harder, he would've been successful.
It's nonsense.
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We don't have numbers from over 10 years ago but we do for the last 8-10 years. There are no NFL stars drafted in the last decade that throw under 50 MPH.
No we don't. What did Teddy throw at the combine? Matt Ryan? Matt Stafford? Andrew Luck? Sam Bradford? Ryan Tannehill? Derek Carr? Not to mention the 100 other backups, there are 7 NFL starters where we have no data. That's a significant chunk of the league, and closer to half of all semi-successful or higher QB's in the NFL. So that's quite enough of "we have the numbers." Half of the decent starters of the NFL ain't sufficient.
I myself, am not in a tizzy. I'm a Corey Davis guy. I heard one of the foremost national expert guys on the radio here in Denver and he was making kind of a big issue about it. Was the first and only time I had heard about it.
You sounded quite concerned.
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Are you aware that no QB has been timed under 55 MPH at the combine in years and Watson was timed at 49? He throws the slowest football of any QB to come out in years and no successful QB has thrown under 55 at the combine since its inception. Is this concerning to you or anyone? It sounded a bit alarming to me. I feel like it's more significant than the annual hand size debate.
They don't time all the QB's. So no.
Funny to watch the tizzy people work themselves into over it.
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Welcome to the No Facts Zone.
2013.
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This concerns me too, but only if they marry themselves to the pick. Conventional wisdom says if you take a 1st rd QB you don't take one the following year, but recent history shows us this is flawed thinking. After EJ's rookie year he should have been viewed no differently from a 3rd rd pick who performed equally. Instead they fell into the sunk cost fallacy. If the Bills are willing to defy the norm if logic dictates I'd be happy to risk #10 on a QB.
That said, I wouldn't risk it on Watson. I find Cahomes and Trubisky intriguing enough to roll the dice. But given Watson's arm strength and style of play he's just too big a ? to take that early.
Yes Yes YES
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Absolutely. Sean's defense wasn't better than Rex's last year. Should have kept Rex until we had an upgrade.
I hear 2018 will be a much better pool of coaches to choose from. Don't want to risk picking a mediocre or bad coach.
Saban is gonna declare in 2018, it'd be like hiring Marrone all over again in 2013 to pick an HC now.
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This may be an unpopular post, but hear me out.
Rex Ryan has only been a HC for 6 years in the NFL. Who is to say a HC can't improve after six years and become the franchise HC? Especially when he had 2 years at basically .500 as a Bill. I know he had 6 years to get the mental things down, the timeouts over the middle, the command of the team, but it was only his second year in Buffalo. I think we should've at least kept Rex as a bridge HC until we could find one better. I would hate to walk away from Rex and watch a guy like Rob Chudzinski go 4-12 if a rookie HC doesn't pan out. Let's face it, there just aren't many good NFL HC's out there and maybe if we improve the weapons around Rex, Rob stays healthy etc. he can really shine.
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The market is not supposed to guarantee low wage earners a safe and equitable income. People need to develop some kind of skill - more specifically a marketable skill. If they don't, then they do not deserve better pay. Only when an employee becomes more valuable to the employer do they warrant an increase in pay. The market has nothing to do with that.
And I don't see how you can make a connection between speed limits, which is a public safety issue, and an imposed minimum wage, which is not. These are two entirely different things.
They are both numbers.
Tyrod Taylor's Highlights
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
It was reported the Bills were going to cut TT if he didn't restructure. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2697955-tyrod-taylor-takes-10-million-pay-cut-in-contract-to-remain-with-buffalo-bills