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jletha

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Posts posted by jletha

  1. Small sample size yes, but not so small it's insignificant. The losing teams are below and you can see in the close games the QBs were mostly young. The old guys (like manning this year) got blown out twice, sort of underscoring the point of not being able to win with an old QB. It wasn't a fluke play that determined the outcome, like the Tyree catch. So even expanding it to all QBs for the past 11 SBs the trend generally holds true and may even underscore how it is a money issue. Only 2 QBs are over 30 who's teams even had a shot to win those games. One was Brady who gave money back in negotiations to help his team remain competitive was 33 and the other one was Warner, a guy playing on a discounted contract late in his career.

     

    SB Losers from last 11 years:

     

    2014 - Manning - 37

    2013 - Kapernick - 25

    2012 - Brady - 33

    2011 - Roth - 29

    2010 - Manning - 32

    2009 - Warner - 37

    2008 - Brady - 28

    2007 - Grossman - 27

    2006 - Hasselback - 31

    2005 - McNabb - 28

    2004 - Delhomme - 29

     

    It seems like youre trying to make the data fit your idea too much. For the most part, if youre team is playing in the superbowl you have a shot to win, blaming a wide margin in a superbowl on the QBs age is a little crazy seeing as how often times the QB is pretty instrumental in getting you there. Just because Manning got blown out this year are you suggesting Denver goes and find someone younger because that team might lose by less of a margin? Do you really think a younger player would have gotten Denver to the Superbowl? You can argue that for the majority of QBs their prime is before theyre 30 so thats why there is more <30 year olds on the list. Its a stretch to imply that once a QB hits 30 you should ditch him and go looking. The majority of the QBs in the league in general are under 30 and most of them wont make the superbowl as a starter. Look at the data for total QBs under 30 starting for teams for a whole season, making low end money, over the same time frame and the number of them that make/win a superbowl. If having a low-salary QB under 30 got you to the superbowl then we would have been there, as would the Browns and every other team that has struggled to find a solid QB.

  2. Interesting, but it's a little too skewed to winning the Super Bowl, which requires a whole lot of luck (plus talent) and leaves you with a small sample size. I'd like to see some data for the age of QBs getting to the playoffs and advancing through the different rounds.

     

    Older Brady lost Super Bowls he could easily have won (i.e., that turned on a handful of plays). Manning was back in the bowl last year at a ripe-old age.

     

    For me a team's long-term goal should not be to win the Super Bowl except in the most abstract sense, since there are so many factors that go into that, many of which are beyond management's control. The goal should be to build a consistent winner - which maximizes your chance to win a Super Bowl. And even if you never win the big one, you can have a great, entertaining, profitable team (as we know all too well from the 90s).

     

    It's possible that even sustained success is threatened by too much money invested in a QB, but I'm not so sure. A lot of the old guys seem to make the playoffs pretty regularly.

     

    This for sure. Many superbowls are decided on single plays that if they were re-run could go the complete other way. So while the list of QBs winning superbowls is accurate in containing many younger players, saying that the reason they won was because of those QBs is the wrong conclusion. If Welker makes the catch in 2012, if Tyree doesnt have gum on his helmet, if Holmes bobbles the ball on the sideline, etc then this list looks completely different and OP might be saying that we need older QBs if we want to win a SB. The QBs now a days may draw too much of the cap, thats for the teams to decide, but many of the teams winning the superbowls were built in the draft not in free agency signings (Ravens, Seahawks, Packers, Steelers, Giants). We had a good draft last year and we need another.

     

    Go Bills

  3. It was reported that Mario (well, by Mario) that he would be visiting other teams after he came to Buffalo. He signed with Buffalo because they told him they would make him the highest paid D player in history. He knew no one else was offering this.

     

    I'm assuming Revis went to NE because they showed interest. Why would he not visit another team if there was serious interest elsewhere?

     

    Yea we were offering the most money, doesnt mean other people didnt want him. He chose to go where they would pay him the most like most people would do. You implied from your earlier post "What other team or teams put in a bid for Mario? Where else did he visit?" that nobody else wanted him, which is ridiculous.

  4. What other team or teams put in a bid for Mario? Where else did he visit?

     

    We got Mario first and didnt let him leave, I have no idea what teams put a bid in for him and neither do you. Do you really think that means nobody else wanted him?

     

    Where else did Ware visit this year besides Denver, where else did Revis go? Do you really think the only teams that wanted them were the ones that signed them?

  5.  

    He's also been tweeting more the last week than he did in the year or so that I followed him combined. Not sure if this is some sort of strategy?

     

    If I remember correctly he did that last year when we tried to reach a deal with him and I thought it was interesting. Its some sort of game he plays to make him seem more personable or something but yea its very noticeable how much more he tweets since negotiations ended

  6. You dont think the Bills do a good enough job of retaining our own talent? What an original thought. I do seem to remember us resigning Wood, K. Williams, Freddie, Stevie and most recently an up and coming talent A. Williams. This concept of the Bills being terrible at keeping players while most other teams have it figured out is getting old. In a couple years when some other player decides to leave (as happens with most teams at some point) and Aaron Williams is holding down our secondary nobody will give props to the Bills FO for this move. Im not saying the Bills are a great organization, as evidenced by the current playoff drought and many other indicators but it seems by reading this board as often as I do that some people tend to think that other teams rarely/never let guys go. If we were all Pats fans you would have all lost your minds in letting a guy like Mark Andersen go, or same with Houston letting Mario go. Sometimes teams have to make decisions that players go because they dont think the financial commitment is worth it. Bring up guys like Greer, Winfield and Fletcher are all legit but that was a different front office and different coaches. I rarely post on this place but seeing this just made me think, does T master really believe the difference between the Charger and us is the ability to lock up a guy like Chad Rinehart. Is that really what determines a winning franchise from a loser? From what Ive seen its not, it lies more on the decisions made in the draft and on the field come Sundays. The Chargers can have Chad but us holding on to him wouldnt have changed much and I really think in a couple years this Byrd situation is gonna work in our favor.

     

    Most of all Go Bills

  7. This article lost me with “every kid in little league gets a trophy”. The rule wasnt changed because the league wanted to make sure it didnt hurt the other teams feelings. Just because there were have been a couple ties doesnt mean this is a flawed system. If a game is very evenly matched then a tie may be a good result. The old system was ridiculous by not even giving the other team the ball a lot of times. I know American sports dont like ties at all but they do add a lot to playoff races and make for interesting scenarios down the road. Im not saying the system is perfect but it is much better than it was.

     

    If you're so concerned about equal chances, go win the damn game in regulation or play some damn defense in OT and get the ball back. After all defense is just as much a part of the game as offense right.

     

    Im sure teams haven't thought about this. Interesting approach, have you tried contacting the NFL regarding this?

  8. So it used to be the reason we have sucked was because we couldn't get a QB and not its because we didn't get a backup QB. A lot of teams have terrible backup QBs and that is not the defining point of the organization. This place is a mess after a loss. Blaming our organization for not getting a veteran backup in a game where we had a limited CJ, EJ go down, Stevie go out, no Gilmore or Byrd and a weak McKelvin. And with all of that talent the organization has brought it the reason we can't win is because of a backup.

  9. I love Grantland and I try to read most of Bill Barnwell's stuff because it is usually very insightful and he backs up most of his claims with relevant evidence and numbers. That being said, if you go back through his past articles from last year he wrote how fumble recovery rate is surprisingly telling for a teams success, as is point differential. There are really good articles hes written that clearly show a good way to predict a teams success is looking at some of these factors, so hes not just pulling these out of thin air. I think hes got it right.

  10. you could do something like " Electric Co."..name of O-line back in the day...maybe the "K-Gun" after Jim Kelly run Offense in the 90's..not named after Jim Kelly tho..."Bickering Bills" from the 90's Bills....first two might make more sense to non-Bills fans if you put the logo under the name...just a few

     

    if your a season ticket holder how bout "Paying my Bill's" with Bills written in Buffalo Bills red and lettering

     

    I really want to incorporate the water/boating aspect into it and use a play on words. For example, a really lame one would be "Sea J Spiller". But I would feel much better using someone in the HOF or wall of fame to ensure longevity of the name. Good ideas to play off of though. Thanks

  11. Hey, I'm new here and don't know if this is appropriate to post here but I just bought a boat and am in need of a good name. I want to incorporate water/boating lingo and something Bills. Either a players name or something Bills related and am struggling. I was hoping you guys could be more clever than I am

  12. That's nice and all, but since the award has been given out (1967 to present), it's only been given to QB, RB or WR. Never has a lineman won it. So to say that a LT can "easily win it" really ignores 46 years of actual history.

     

    True, but history also tells another story. Given how this draft went down a little different than history says it should have (first time since 1963 no RB in the first round and only 1 "reach/project" QB according to some experts) implies that this year was a little devoid of talent in the sexy positions that usually win OROY. Also since it was possibly the best draft for O-lineman ever (3 of the top 4 and 6 of the top 11 picks) it may not be out of reach this year for an O-lineman to get it. If it was going to be any year, itd be this one.

     

    Note: I say reach/project because thats what the "experts" say. I am fully on board with EJ but dont expect him to light it up in year one. But I have high hopes for him in the future.

  13. this draft was heavy in O-Line and limited in the "playmaker" positions of QB, RB and WR. Of the WR and QBs that have a chance to make the most impact in the league EJ and Woods are up there on that list, but that doesnt mean they are leading candidates for OROY. look for any of the top O-lineman to win it. if one of them comes in and does as well as expected at LT than they can easily win it.

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