2003Contenders
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I too am optimistic that Josh will have the best season of his career -- even if it does not mean the most passing yards, etc. of his career.
I really do feel like under Dorsey last season, Josh was pressing -- and seemed much more comfortable after the switch to Brady in Week 11. Who can forget Josh exclaiming, "I'm f***ing back!" in that first game with Brady as OC against the Jets.
I look at his production during those last 7 weeks, where he passed for 139/229, 1706 yards, 10 TDs, and 7 INTs. He also rushed 63 times for 278 yards and 8 TDs. Over a full season that amounts to 338/556, 4143 yards, 24 TDs, and 17 INTs (with 153 rushing attempts for 675 yards and 19 TDs). Those are still very elite numbers -- even if there is almost certainly going to be a down-tick in the rushing TD department.
I think a full off-season where Brady has the opportunity to instill "his" offense will help. I know in their heart-of-hearts McD (and probably Brady too) would love to win via a ground attack like they did against the Cowboys, where Josh only passed for less than 100 yards -- but that is nirvana and not week-to-week reality. As I already mentioned, Brady also seemed more willing than Dorsey to "let Josh be Josh", so I do expect continued (but hopefully prudent) use of Josh in the running game. And, for all of our concerns about the quality of the players in the WR room, I will say that the guys who are present do have a propensity for CATCHING the ball, which can't be said about Diggs and Davis during the late stretch last year.
I also do not think we can overestimate how much better things will be on the field/sidelines/locker room without Diggs' larger-than-life presence. Diggs certainly deserves a good amount of credit for Josh's emergence as an elite QB when Diggs arrived back in 2020. But his antics grew tiresome, and I believe played a significant role in Josh's down demeanor last season.
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Ironic that we have a GM named B. Beane, because it looks like our GM, Brandon, appears to be taking a page out of the GM of the Oakland A's Billy "Moneyball" Beane from years past. Given the cap constraints that we find ourselves in this year, that makes sense.
Rather than looking at a conventional WR1, WR2, etc., Beane is looking at the totality of the receiving corps which coupled with an elite QB, he believes can maintain the overall production from the team last year that did ostensibly have a "WR1" in Diggs.
It is true that we are losing our top 2 receivers from last season in Diggs and Davis who accounted for 152 catches, 1929 yards and 15 TDs. But if we take a step back and look at the final 7 games of the season, when Brady was calling the offense (and the team went 6-1 with just the one heartbreaking loss to Philly), Diggs/Davis combined for just 46 catches, 571 yards and 3 TDs. Worse, Diggs was disparagingly unproductive with the receptions he did have, averaging less than 10 yards per catch, 315 yards on 34 receptions and just 1 TD. Shakir was more productive than either of them over that span, accounting for 363 yards (Davis had 256).
Meanwhile, after our top 3 in Diggs/Davis/Shakir, there was very little production from any other WR. Sherfield and Harty COMBINED for 26 receptions, 236 yards and 2 TDs. Getting more production from our new WR4 and WR5 could help to cushion the blow of losing Diggs and Davis. So would hopefully seeing an uptick in Shakir's production.
I am not suggesting that Shakir is capable of fully replacing Diggs just because he was more productive later in the season (and especially in the playoffs) than Diggs. But assuming Shakir is a more primary target in the 2024 offense, it stands to reason that he can increase his total 2024 output of 39 receptions for 611 yards and 2 TDs substantially. He wasn't far behind Davis last year in terms of catches (45-to-39) and yards (746-to-611), so I do not think it is unreasonable to project, say, 52 receptions for 800 yards for Shakir. Replacing Davis's TD output may not be as easy -- but I think 4-5 TDs for Shakir is a reasonable, conservative expectation. I can also see similar numbers for Samuels (he had 62 receptions and 4 TDs last season with garbage at QB) and the rookie Coleman, who I can see being a TD-machine in this offense and matching (or even exceeding) Davis' TD output.
Getting back to the Bills' dismal WR4 and WR5 production in 2023, coming off an admittedly underwhelming season, MVS still out-produced Sherfield/Harty COMBINED with 315 yards. He's just a year removed from posting 687 yards and posted 690 back in 2020. That's to say that he alone could make up for some of the lost WR production -- and help to provide some added insurance in the event that Coleman has a rookie learning curve to overcome. Whomever from Hollins/Cephus/Claypool/Hamler/Shorter makes the team should also pick up some of that production as well.
Of course, none of this even accounts for the expected involvement (and improvement) from the TEs and RBs in the passing game. Or that Brady's offense may be less WR-centric and more run-oriented and make more use of 12-personnel and TE involvement.
Long story short, if we replace from 2023:
Diggs 107 rec 1183 yards 8 TD
Davis 45 rec 746 yards 7 TD
Shakir 39 rec 611 yards 2 TD
Harty 15 rec 150 yards 1 TD
Sherfield 11 rec 86 yards 1 TD
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Total 217 rec 2776 yards 19 TDWith something like for 2024:
Shakir 52 rec 800 yards 5 TD
Samuel 65 rec 770 yards 4 TD
Coleman 51 rec 750 yards 8 TD
MVS 31 rec 480 yards 2 TD
Hollins* 16 rec 200 yards 1 TD
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Total 215 rec 3000 yards 20 TD
In this scenario (which I don't think is unreasonable), we still get better production from the top 5 WRs even if we don't have a single WR with 100+ receptions and 1000+ yards.
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Even if you like him, the first sentence in the OP's post precludes the Bills from ever having been able to trade for him even if they wanted to: "DJ is $10M on the books..."
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Cam and those 2015 Panthers did not have to deal with the Mahomes/Reid Chiefs back in 2015 -- whereas the Josh-era Bills were knocked out of the playoffs by those Chiefs 3 times -- twice in break-heart fashion. Otherwise, Josh and the Bills very likely would have appeared in at least 2 Super Bowls (and possibly 3).
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As others have mentioned, I believe that two players that come to mind that never made it to the playoffs during their Bills tenure here -- and would make a huge impact on the current team -- are Aaron Schobel and Lee Evans.
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Yea, I honestly have a great deal of respect for him. He's the real deal and seems to be a good dude. Just wish our defense would show up against him in the playoffs.
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Just some random thoughts...
1. The Bills are not going to be wowing us with any free agent signings, given their current cap situation. Even modest signings like those of Gallup, OBJ, Chark, etc. are currently out of the Bills' price range. So for now we will have to be content with dumpster diving -- and hoping to hit on a potential diamond in the rough.
Also, while they will be in better shape after June 1 when Tre's cap savings are freed up, I imagine the theme will be for them to remain frugal, given rookie contracts, etc.
2. Claypool has shown more than glimpses of what his upside represents. More, in fact, than Hamler. In Claypool's rookie season with a declining Big Ben, he racked up 62 receptions for 873 yards and 9 TDs. Those are probably reasonable (maybe even hopeful) projections for what we might expect from Coleman as a rookie this season. In his second season (when Big Ben was all but shot) Claypool posted remarkably similar numbers: 59 receptions for 860 yards; however, he only scored 2 TDs. The Steelers traded him to Chicago early on the next season -- and we know what a mess that Chicago offense was in 2022. Claypool failed to catch on with Miami -- but he was a very poor fit for their scheme.
3. I don't know what (if anything) Claypool has left. Is the production he exhibited back in 2020/2021 ancient history? Likely it is. But he is still young, and injuries have not been an issue for him the way they have been for Hamler, for example. After a promising rookie season, his career has been plagued by lousy QB play, poor scheme fit and poor attitude/preparation. In Buffalo he now has an elite QB -- and based on the "big" direction the offense is headed, it would seem that he is an ideal scheme fit. Provided that at just 25, he has not lost the physical talent he exhibited as a rookie, it would seem that the only thing holding him back is effort/attitude.
This is exactly the low-risk sort of gamble the Bills SHOULD be trying in their current cap-strapped situation.
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4 minutes ago, finn said:
I think so, too. It's lacking only name recognition. Shakir was better than Diggs last year, at least in the second half of the season; Samuels has produced despite never having a top-twenty quarterback; Coleman looks terrific; Hollins should be a solid, Kumerow-type 4th. Remember, they have a QB that produced big time with no more than Beasley, Brown, and loose change.
But let's not kid ourselves. Hamler, Shavers, Isabella, and Shorter are all long shots. Maybe lightning will strike. More likely, they'll go the way of Deonte Hardy, Tanner Gentry, Isaiah Hodgins, Marquez Stephenson, Tavon Austin, and Jamison Crowder.
That is fair.
Over his 4-year career Hamler has only caught a pass in 20 games and amassed a grand total of 42 receptions, 620 yards and 3 TDs. His greatest production came in his rookie season (back in 2020) when he did exhibit some potential. But he barely played in 2021 and 2022 and not at all last season. I am really pulling for him -- but I don't think it is reasonable to expect much (if anything).
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8 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:
If Franklin is the guy they should just take him with 33. No need to get too cute and risk NE taking him. NE just drafted a potential franchise QB and they have no receivers, after all.
I agree -- the only caveat I have is that if there is as great of demand for other teams to move up to #33 as Beane claims, he would be hard-pressed to avoid trading down if an offer comes in that is too good to refuse.
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2 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:
You don't trade back when you have one guy.
You trade back when you have several guys and can be pretty sure at least one will be left.
Exactly -- and given the number of calls they are reportedly getting about 2.01, I suspect that there is a high probability that they move down yet again. I have no idea how they have the players graded, but right now there is a pretty good collection of guys on the board that would fill a need who would not be unreasonable to select at 33:
DeJean (S)
McKinstry (CB)
Powers-Johnson (OC)
McConkey (WR)
Franklin (WR)
Coleman (WR)
Mitchell (WR)
Nubin (S)
Lassiter (CB)
Rakestraw (CB)
They could move down as far as 40, still land their BAP (at a position of need) -- and pick up another (hopefully top 100) pick for their efforts. The plethora of 5th rounders also gives them some ammunition to move up a few picks here or there if they want to make a move later in the 2nd or 3rd.
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1 hour ago, ProcessTruster said:
Watch Beane start to trade up tonight
Absolutely -- use some combination of those 5th round picks to move up in the 2nd and/or 3rd round(s).
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I certainly believe that Beane has been doing his due diligence in terms of calling around in pursuit of an "aggressive" move up the draft board. I suppose the question is: what exactly is "aggressive" -- and just how "aggressive" is Beane willing to be. The biggest problem with all of this is that everything is so fluid -- and it won't be until the draft is well underway that we have any indication of what may happen.
Let's just say that Beane is trying to land one of the top 3 WRs and is indeed calling around to see if any of the teams drafting in the top 10 are willing to move down. Picking all the way down at 28, it is highly unlikely that any of the teams in the top, let's say 6, would be willing to make a deal with the Bills -- even if the Bills were willing to part with an exhaustive list of future picks (in addition to 28 and 60 this year).
Now, if at least one of those top 3 falls as far as 8, then things could start getting interesting, as parting with 28, 60, 2025 1st rounder, and one of the 2025 2nd rounders could possibly get that done with Atlanta. But that is STILL a lot for the Bills to give up when they have other needs. I just have a hard time seeing Beane be THAT aggressive, which could be why he more or less managed those expectations in last week's conference call when he indicated that he did not see us trading into the top 10.
If one of those receivers surprisingly falls out of the top 10, then I can honestly see a serious possibility of an "aggressive" trade happening. The framework is there from the 2017 move that cost the Chiefs their 2018 first rounder and 2017 3rd-round pick to move up from #27 to #10. I would imagine similar compensation would be in play for a move up from 28 to, say 11-13. Of course, the Bills do not have a #3 this year -- so likely the cost would be one of the #2 picks NEXT year (plus the 2025 #1) in order to move up from 28. That is much easier to stomach, provided that the receiver really is an immediate-impact difference-maker.
I really do hope that "aggressive" does not mean trading away anything significant to move into the top 20 to land whomever they have ranked as their 4th receiver (BTJ or Worthy or whomever). I could live with a move like they have made in each of the last 2 drafts (parting with, say, a 4th rounder) to move up a few spots to solidify such a pick. But I would not consider that "aggressive".
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5 hours ago, Brandon said:
The 2000 draft class is generally considered one of the worst ever. Not many teams did well that year.
Indeed -- plus, (God rest his soul) John Butler already had one foot out the door for San Diego when he oversaw this, his final draft.
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Prior to the Diggs trade I may have said Legette, as I think he has the size/speed/upside to round out the WR room. However, with Diggs gone, I think the team needs more of a "sure" thing -- and a guy that can contribute right away (which I am not sure Legette can do). That to me is McConkey, who may not have Legette's measurables -- but he come into the league right away as a polished and versatile receiver, and I believe has a better shot at off-setting Diggs' departure.
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2 hours ago, QLBillsFan said:
It’s not that the players he mocked to the Bills are bad. It’s about them being drafted way before their value. So the Bills would pass on Mitchell, Legette, and Franklin over Kneeland? Yikes. And it continued with other picks. Brutal value.
Agreed. Reuter actually does a decent job having them address needs -- but his sequencing of when these players are selected is odd.
Would the Bills really draft Wilson ahead of several other WRs that wind up being drafted in the 3rd round of this mock? I will say that if Reuter happened to have any inside knowledge (which I doubt he does), I would be highly annoyed if the draft went the way he has it going for the Bills without some serious TRADING DOWN happening.
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15 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:
There apparently is a lot of buzz on Kneeland being a borderline late 1st early 2nd player among league guys. I don’t see it - wouldn’t even use pick 60 on him. It’s pure projection of his size and athleticism, apparently, because he didn’t exactly dominate the MAC.
Reminds me too much of the McCargo pick back in 2006. The guy was viewed as a 3rd/4th rounder -- but leading up to the draft, suddenly his stock shot up. Of course, I have a great deal more faith in this current front office than I did in the one that oversaw that draft.
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2 minutes ago, NeverOutNick said:
If we could swap with Atlanta (they don’t need offense) at 8 to jump Chicago and the Jets for Odunze (I assume MHJ and Nabers are gone) I could see it costing this and I’d be on board:
Falcons receive:
pick 28 in 2024
2025 1st round
2025 2nd round
Bills receive:
8th pick in 2024 and select Odunze
This would leave us with the Texans 2nd round pick next year and all of our picks still this year.
I doubt that the Falcons would be willing to move down 20 spots in the 1st round without getting something else back THIS year. My guess is that #60 this year as well as the 2025 first rounder would be a minimal starting point.
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1 hour ago, section122 said:
This isn't realistic. Going back 5 spots nets you an early 4th rounder. The first realistic chance to get a 3rd rounder is dropping to 36 and getting the literal last pick in the 3rd (100). You could also do 40 and 78 for 28 and 133 but that is a large drop back.
With all the picks the Bills have on Day 3, maybe they can package one or more of them in the hypothetical trade to make it more reasonable/enticing.
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Given that there are 3-4 receivers on the board that are pretty closely rated, I voted to trade down. Ideally, that would mean moving into the top part of the 2nd round (where at least one of those receivers will still be available) -- and hopefully picking up a 3rd rounder for the trouble.
Obviously, we would have to find a serious trading partner.
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13 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:
I almost feel like Roman Wilson is a potential Bills draft pick as he's one guy I see almost no one talk about.
I agree -- there really is not much hype surrounding him. He is not a big-bodied receiver -- but he checks off pretty much all of the other boxes: speed, route running, versatility, and has played in big-time games.
As we have seen in the WR threads, beauty truly is in the eye of the beholder in this year's draft class. The top 3 (MHJ, Nabers and Odunze) will probably go in the top 10. BTJ will likely go somewhere in the next 10 picks (well before the Bills). If BB does not see great value with the collection of receivers on the board at 28, I could see him waiting until the 2nd to draft a polished receiver like Wilson.
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I believe that the Bills were interested -- and probably did tell Armstead to come back with any offer he received from another team. However, there is simply no way Beane could (or should) have matched that offer that Jacksonville made.
This is probably a situation similar to when the WR came in during the Buddy Nix era -- was it Brandon Lloyd? -- who was in the office literally working out a contract when a representative from another team called with an offer. When Buddy heard the terms the other team was offering, he immediately stopped proceedings and told the player and his agent -- "You better take that deal with the other team because there is no way we can match it..."
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I highly doubt that we see any "big splash" deals.
Instead, I think he will be patient, wait a few days until all of the hype dies down -- and pick up some depth/low key guys for modest contracts on 1-2-year deals.
While I trust McD and the coaching staff to make do with these kinds of players in the secondary, I think (aside from another possible under-the-radar signing) we will have to wait until the draft to find a meaningful pickup at the position that we all covet the most, WR.
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Nice signing (assuming money is minimal).
My guess is that they will still want to bring in a veteran who can be relied upon for pass protection/blitz pick-ups.
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2 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:
Right now, I think it's 1 of 3 guys. A small-medium trade up for Brian Thomas Jr. or Adonai Mitchell or Xavier Legette at 28. I'd be happy with any of them.
If I'm having to pick only 1, right now my gut says Legette at 28.
I would add Keon Coleman to that mix as well at 28. He has the size and skill set to replicate the things that Davis did well -- with better hands to go along with it.
Historical Fiction: How would drought coaches have fared with Josh Allen?
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
The only thing I will say is that that Marrone did get to 9-7 in 2014 with Kyle Orton at QB. Plug the current version of Josh Allen into that lineup, and the team definitely makes the playoffs.