appoo
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Posts posted by appoo
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16 minutes ago, JohnNord said:
If the price was right, then why not!?!?! But I don’t think the Bills will make a deal. They do have high hopes for Dawson Knox and they like players like Tyler Kroft and Tommy Sweeney. Plus they have been playing a lot of 4 wide. So does it make sense to trade for a player that would be used sparingly and take reps away from a player who could be a rising star?
It's not Knox that will give the Bills brass a 2nd though about trading for Ertiz, I think its Gabe Davis. Kid has bigtime potential as a big target in the RZ, and making difficult contested catches in the intermediate and short areas.
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If they keep the cap at 175M, then Bills, and everyone else, will be screwed.
I am going to guess the cap will be closer to 205M. 175M is just not sustainable for teams.
If the cap is 205M, then the Bills shouldn't have to worry too much about re-signing the middle class of their roster.
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12 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:
With the current cap space rolled over to next year gives you 2.5 million.
But that is for only 41 players on the roster.
Have you looked at the FA list for next year? Money is also needed to re-sign/replace these guys.
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/cap/2021/
Sorry here are the FAs.
You raise a good point here, I forgot about COVID, and figured the CAP would be in the 210M range.
If it's set at 175M, there's going to be a huge contractions of vets. We wouldn't be be able to replace most of those players.
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On 9/21/2020 at 4:34 AM, Kmart128 said:
As much as id like it we may be in line to give both Milano and Allen huge extensions at some point.
It would be smarter to draft a TE in 1st round if we want an elite talent there. That way they would be on a rookie deal
Mario Addison (+6M)
Vernon Butler (+6.8M)
Lee Smith (2.3M)
Give you the space to resign Milano to the 21 cap.
You extend Allen to impact the 2022 cap, where they'll have about 80M in space assuming trading and then extending Ertz, re-signing Milano, with White, Diggs, and Morse all signed. You can structure Allen's extension in such a way where a HUGE chunk of it goes into the 2022 cap.
The 21 Bills are going to be loaded.
The 22 Bills should have a very solid base, with Allen, Moss, Singletary, Diggs, and Ertz as your offensive core, with White, Poyer, Edwards, Oliver, AJ, and Milano still aboard, and about 30M in space to fill the roster.
23 Allen's hit starts to fade, and you get your Oliver hit.
In the meantime, you're drafting RTs, WRs, and Safeties to protect against the purges in those positions.
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Cole Beasley + 2nd would likely land Ertz, in terms of balancing the cap. You would have him running those middle, possession and seam routes instead of Cole as well, and you can do more with Gabe Davis. You can extend him in such a way that you probably limit his cap hit to 8-12M, or put another way, 2 - 5M more of a cap hit than Cole Beasley the next 3 years. Basically, this is not a huge deal for the Bills. They can easily work around this.
Especially considering Ertz is an absolute stud.
The Bill haven't had a SB window since Jim Kelly retired. They have one now. They should do pretty much everything to maximize that opportunity.
The CAP isn't a huge blockage, a low 2nd round pick shouldn't stop you. Upgrading your slot, seam and middle from Beasley to Ertz is absolutely not going to stop you.
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Just now, ColoradoBills said:
What is the Sam Hill makes you think the Bills are looking for a WR. The roster is set.
They have the best WR group in decades.
I think they'd be interested in size, though not necessarily at WR.
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1 minute ago, ColoradoBills said:
If Beane even thought of that trade for a moment I'd hit him in the head with a shovel.
Far better target, though I'm not sure we could make that work without making a serious cut
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2 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:
This feels like the Packers might be interested
Looking at their cap I think the only way that would work would be if they sent back one of Devante Adams, David Bakhtiari, or Corey Linsley. They have a ton of Dead Cap space
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1 minute ago, mykidsdad said:
Brown for OBJ? I think so, IF it wasn't for the locker room chemistry/drama that could derail our team. But on the field, yes.
We'd be about $6M short of cap space even if we included Brown
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Also OBJ's contract is pretty friendly. You can cut him in the offseason without a dead cap hit.
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Odell has a dead cap hit of 14M. That tells you how much the Browns are sick of him that they'd eat that much.
His 14M cap hit means there's about 10 teams who have the space to take his contract.
New York Jets - rebuilding wouldn't do it
Jacksonville Jaguars - rebuilding wouldn't it
New England Patriots - possible
Dallas Cowboys - don't need
Washington Football Team - hmmm
Denver Broncos - just drafted a 1st/2nd round WR, have Cortland Sutton
Philadelphia Eagles - hmmmm
Detroit Lions - with Matt Patricia's job on the line, this might be a good spot for him
Miami Dolphins - rebuilding, wouldn't do it.
So of that list, I think the Lions are the most logical spot. A desperate HC/GM, a strong armed QB, a team that may or may not be ready to contend for a wold card
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1 minute ago, Warcodered said:
Makes sense Cleveland needs to get picks to help them draft a QB again.
a 4th round pick isn't going to help them
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19 minutes ago, Chuck Wagon said:
I'd trade for Allen Robinson.....
The John Brown ~ Josh Allen Chemistry is too valuable to give that up right now (and you'd have to send Brown back the other way, or possibly Cole Beasley, but regardless that's a big change in the offense)
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Besides, the real issue is going to be Josh Allen. His cap number is going to up by ~ 30M in 2022, and that is going to be basically a brand new team outside the core - and you very much want Ertz to be a part of that core, as he should continue to be elite for another 4 years.
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35 minutes ago, BillnutinHouston said:
No. An Ertz signing guarantees that Milano falls off your roster. Too high a cost.
Not really.
Trade for Ertz and he'll fit almost perfectly into our current cap space thanks to dead money. We don't even need to trade anyone. We can get him for a 2nd and just eat his cap as is.
You re-sign Ertz, sign him to a huge sign on (~20M, 4 years), and then backload the guaranteed money to years 3 and 4. That means next year you could lower his cap hit to ~7-9M.. Milano you can do the same, and his value is probably similar - so another 7-9M cap hit. So about 14- 18M you want to clear.
Addison +6M
Quentin Spain (+4M)
Restructure Star (extend him 3 years, lower his cap hit to about 2-3M, save about 4M)
Vernon Butler (+6.8M)
Lee Smith (+2.2M)
And there you go. We already have AJ to replace Addison, we can easily draft a new starting gaurd, a backup DT, TE- and keep the only FA of note, Milano, and keep someone like Ertz.
This van ABSOLUTELY happen.
Bills should go for this, because their window is NOW.
1 hour ago, Ridgewaycynic2013 said:Is Ertz related to any 'A list' celebrities? Then we'll consider it.
How about a world cup winner?
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I started this thread like a week before game 1 when word of Ertz's contract issues surfaced.
Here's the thing - The Bills likely have a 2-3 year window at most.
1) Allen likely gets paid next year
2) Milano will get paid this off season
3) In 2 years, Oliver will get paid
4) John Brown and Cole Beasley probably will degrade next year
5) Quinton Spain is 29, Mitch Morse is 28, Daryl Williams is 28, Ty Neshke is 34. Outside of Ford, Dawkins and Bates the line is going to have to get overhauled in about 2 years .
CURRENTLY, the Bills have a glaring hole at not only TE, but in terms of a large target in general. We don't have size outside of the rookie, other than a very aberage TE in Dawson Knox.
Ertz is one of the 3 best TEs in the League, flat out, in his prime. His cap hit, if sign and extend for 3 years, would be about $12M. 5.3M in Cap Space now, about $4M next year, and we can easily free up more with off season cuts to folks like Mario Addison (+6M), Star (+4M), and Cole Beasley (+4M).
Adding Ertz means you eat a bit of depth by replacing vets with rookies or cheap F/A NEXT year, but it also means you have an even better shot at winning this thing this year or next year.
You do this every opportunity you get. Ertz turns a really good offense, to one of the 3 best in the NFL, with probably the best weapons of any team in the league.
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6 minutes ago, Doc said:
Looking for Kittle/Kelce money?
Or Hooper money.
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cleveland-browns/austin-hooper-19035/
12M a year going to him, 9-11 in cap hit for the next 3 years. Think that's a good deal for the Bills given they're in win now mode.
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https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/1301599721761497091?s=20
Sorry, didn't see a thread where I could post this - but if you trade, sign and then extend him for 3 years, he's got a cap hit between 10-12M. At 29, he's one of the 5 best TEs in the game, and while Knox isn't a weakness, he's young and as of now an average TE. He'd be worth a 2nd round pick IMO, as he'd elevate this offense quite a bit. In terms of the passing game, the glaring hole the Bills have is size in the RZ. Knox is hoping to solve that. Ertz WOULD solve that, and could possibly elevate the weaponry to 2nd best in the NFL.
This post is 100% me trying to make fetch happen.
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The last thing I'll say, specifically to culture...wouldn't be asking Fournette to be a leader, which means he can be an ahole all he wants, but he's just a dude who's getting paid 2-3M on a 1 year contract.
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8 minutes ago, Artful Dodger said:
The Bills look as if they've got two good backs already. Does any team in 2020 need the deepest RB stable in the league?
I think if the opportunity cost was higher, then we'd have an issue. I feel like the biggest weakness on our offense right now is RT, as I simply don't trust Cody Ford there, and lack of a big RZ Threat. It's basically just Dawson Knox. If getting Fournette meant we weren't getting one of those 2 pieces, then I'd say no.
But right now, there doesn't seem to to be an appreciable opportunity cost to signing Fournette to a 1 year deal.
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9 minutes ago, Back2Buff said:
Exactly. People already have Singletary pegged for the HOF. I really wanted this team to trade for Fournette before the draft. I just don't trust Singletary to be an every down RB.
That and I think our OLine is a bit overrated...having someone who can get you yards after contact is a nice hole to fill in our offense
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12 minutes ago, MR8 said:
He wouldn't be a 1500 yard back simply because he'd be splitting the rock 3 ways with Singletary and Moss. Don't get me wrong he'd be a great addition, but this is the kind of thing you'd have wanted to get done before the draft and camp. At this point they have a similar style guy in Moss who they invested a pick in to get. Singletary is "the guy" and every report is that he looks GREAT thus far in camp. I just don't see a world where they pay to sign Fournette and totally shift offensive plans to the new guy when they have Singletary who know the offense already and Moss who's been in camp and had his head int he playbook all off-season.
If Fournette came in he'd be playing catch up from day 1, he likely wouldn't be up to speed for at least a few weeks, and by then I certainly hope Singletary already looks good out there, so why would they cut his carries back? I mean if he stinks we have bigger concerns.
Fournette is best off going to a team with RB needs like Chicago where Montgomery just got hurt, and Tarik Cohen is the lead to get carries but stinks. They're desperate enough to change their offense at this point for Fournette IMO... we should not be.
If Moss' injury that has kept him out of practice is serious then I wouldn't mind them having him in, because he's definitely better than anyone else behind Singletary, but that's a big if.
IMO that's not a big transition for a RB, especially since nowa-adays almost all backs have familiarity with both Gap Blocking (which is what I think Daboll uses) and Zone Blocking (which I think the Jags used)
You're probably right about not getting that high in yards because of the carries split
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1 minute ago, Buffalo03 said:
Exactly, Diggs alone takes another guy out of the box. It actually could put our offense over the top. You double Diggs, only have 7 or 8 in the box with one on one's against John Brown and Cole Beasley
My thinking as well.
Let Fournette have 50% of your first down carries, the majority of your < 5 situations with Moss spelling those, and Singletary continue to have down and distance carries along with 50% of the first down carries.
That is a far more effective offense than letting Singletary and Moss have that split, considering Moss has spent the last 3 years playing against P12 defenses that aren't built to defend power offenses in general
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Another stat btw -
Singletary only faced an 8 man box on 5% of his rushes.
https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/rushing#percent-eight-defenders
The lowest of any back in the NFL. His averages, his efficiency numbers, they are going to take a HUGE hit this upcoming season. For comparison sake, Fournette faced an 8 man box 30% of the time. Around 10th highest in the league. Consider that Singletary averaged 5 yards per carry, while Fournette averaged 4.3.
Frank Gore faced an 8 man box 37% of the time, and averaged 3.6 YPC.
If Fournette does become a Bill, you're looking at a 1500 yard back. He's not going to face nearly as many 8 man boxes with Diggs here, and Allen improving his deep ball, and our TEs getting better.
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Tremaine Edmunds and the run game
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
Lots of misdirection than the bills struggled with in the run game, but rams running isn’t why the Bulls collapsed in the 2nd half. That would be the Rams converting down and distance and the Bills struggling getting to Goff