Gabe Northern
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Posts posted by Gabe Northern
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In today's article, Mark Gaughan has a straightforward indictment of Tom Modrak's job running the drafts. Of all the problems plaguing this front office, none have had the impact of systematic errors in scouting and draft day execution. If it were one or two misfires on first round picks, you could blame it on Ralph's meddling or Modrak being overruled. But this is a sustained, systemic inability to identify players able to perform at a high level in the NFL. Some have also been blinded by the late round success, arguing that Modrak "sucks at the top of the draft but finds steals in late rounds." This perception is due to a failure to remember all of the late round and UDFA failures. If you measure the few successes relative to all of the guys who get invited to camp each year, you'd realize that Modrak's not particularly good here either relative to the rest of the league. (The Packers yesterday got huge performances from 2 UDFAs at RB and CB).
2. Draft picks stunk.
Aaron Maybin. Marshawn Lynch. Trent Edwards. John McCargo. James Hardy. Chris Ellis. Those are six picks from the top three rounds who either left the team this year or produced nothing. Meanwhile, it appears Donte Whitner will leave without justifying his lofty draft selection. First-rounder Leodis McKelvin still has a long way to go. Rookie first-rounder C.J. Spiller didn't do nearly enough. The lack of home-grown quality veterans is the reason the Bills are at the bottom of the barrel.
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I love the people who think this was a Jay Glazer conspiracy to make the Bills look bad.
Even better is the idea that every other team's GM should be doing the legwork finding out how much the Bills want for Lynch.
Sorry folks, but this is why you don't give the GM job to a 71-year old first timer. If Grampy had the good sense to run an auction, he would have been elevated to a GM job when he was actually still working age.
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Keeping with Ralph's "promotion from within theme", Whaley will succeed Nix as GM provided he isn't poached by another team. But Whaley knows what he's doing and I'm excited he's on our team, brainstorming with Nix, improving our team. He'll be an excellent and worthy GM when the time is right.
Yeah, I mean who can argue with a guy who saw Cornell Green get run out of Oakland and promptly sign him to a $3 million per year contract?
You guys are ridiculous. Is there any platter of BS served up by OBD that you won't gladly accept?
Just like Tom Modrak was a genius because of his role in building the Eagles pre-2001. Yeah...they've really missed him since he's been gone. Modrak did not build the Eagles; his association with a good personnel department build his reputation (which is now it tatters everywhere outside of Ralph's office and this message board).
Let's hope Whaley works out, but let's not give him a pass because he was once associated with the very successful Steelers' personnel department.
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Based on what? One top pick that hasn't won OROY?
PTR
Agreed that OP is absurd, but it is PERFECTLY REASONABLE to worry about Grampy Nix. On the pro personnel side, Cornell Green at $3 M per year was a disaster in excess of any committed by John Guy. And Davis and Edwards were hardly good finds.
The draft side was almost as troubling.
Hopefully Spiller improves, but it was scary as hell to watch him try to bounce it to the outside on runs. Without major adjustments, his game is not going to translate at the NFL level.
Even if he worked out, taking Spiller was a luxury pick like a Felix Jones/Chris Johnson selection that should not be made before #21 overall and certainly not by a team with this many holes to fill.
The second round selection of Troup was deeply troubling, given his size and pedigree. Why not native Gronkowski there, or a NT better fit for the scheme, or to pair with penetrating Kyle Williams?
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Bigger, stronger guys
Thanks to draft genius Tom Modrak, our new NT is a 315-lber who played the "3" technique in a 4-3 system in a third-tier college program.
With Kyle Williams more of a penetrator, we needed a space eater/toilet clogger and Modrak decided to get a decent athlete who spent his rookie year getting pushed around.
Let's hope he gets better -- but let's hope more than anything that we get rid of this dipstick who's been ruining our drafts since 2002.
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I was really impressed with his first act as pro personnel head: signing Cornell Green to $3 million per year.
I'm going to go ahead and watch his decisions with my own two eyes. You have to realize that a lot of these articles are ways for reporters to "butter up" their sources.
Follow the team and make your own judgments about this guy. He came from a place with a deep bench and lots of extra sets of eyes.
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Totally agree Modrak needs to go. He is in charge of the draft: scouting operation, film, player recommendations, profile attaches of each player. His first round picks have a hit rate of well under the average of 50%, his mid-round selections are about 1-for-10, and the success of some late-round and UDFA finds obscures the fact that very few (1:100) of these players pan out either.
That said, Modrak did not join the team until 2002 and has been overruled on some #1 picks, especially Whitner (he wanted Cutler) and Maybin (he wanted Cushing).
But your post is correct. People will complain that it wasn't his fault because he had a boss/Ralph meddling/etc. etc. etc.
Imagine if this (the Bills draft record) was your resume. Of course you'd argue that you were overruled on all key selections.
And anyone outside of Modrak's immediate family would have to be an idiot to believe it.
Now tell us again - why does Modrak have to go?
His record of draft futility extends well beyond the first round picks from 2002-2010. Even assuming you're correct with respect to him being overruled (he did leak to the press that he wanted Cutler (2006) and Cushing (2009)), we're still dealing with a really terrible roster due largely to Tom Modrak whiffs.
2003: Chris Kelsay over Osi Umenyioura (who was the next DE off the board)
2007: trade up for Poz over David Harris (next ILB off the board)
2008: Needed a WR and CB. Modrak recommends McKelvin and Hardy. Pass on Rodgers-Cromartie (pro bowl CB) and DeSean Jackson (WR)
2009: He wanted Cushing but rated Maybin as best pure edge rusher over Orakpo/Matthews. (see Chris Brown about Orakpo taking plays off, per Bills' scouts).
And this ignores the mid-round futility, which would require much more time and space.
This is dreadful. Why you defend this man and his record is beyond me.
Modrak is just the chief scout. Who actually makes the pick for Buffalo? Ralph? Sure as hell hope not!
Yes -- Modrak is in charge of collecting and analyzing information about potential draft choices. Kind of a key function in terms of the whole draft process, wouldn't you say?
This is so incredible to that people make this argument.
If you have a job, or have had a job, think for a moment what you're saying.
Basically anyone out there who has a boss cannot possibly be evaluated on the output/production of his or her division of the company because it's impossible to ascribe the precise amount of blame/credit for said output.
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Keep Donte and Poz, and add pieces to the defense around/in front of them. Getting rid of average players, when you have worse players, is just dumb.
Why do people insist these guys are average?
Do you watch other teams? Average strong safeties don't give up 11 TDs to tight ends (Whitner) or take horrible angles in run support. Similarly, average ILBs do not look painfully lost in pass coverage and make 75% of their tackles 7 yards past the line of scrimmage.
These guys suck. I agree that if you were to team them with Bruce Smith, Ray Lewis, and Deion Sanders in their primes they could be part of an outstanding defensive unit. Great point.
Back in the real world, if these guys ask to be paid like their top 10 talents, let them walk and spend the money elsewhere.
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Throw in that McCargo dude and you have Marv and Dick's perfect trifecta.
Right. Blame it on Marv.
Because Tom Modrak's drafts were tremendous from 2002-2005 and 2008-10.
Luckily the Bills can stand some rough 2006-2007 picks with all of those pro bowlers acquired in the other drafts.
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Just when some good feelings about this team begins to grow the real issues with the organization shows.
Whitner is unhappy. That is not unusual. What is the real issue is the front office, who can pi$$ off players playing well during the season. John Butler, Bill Polian, would never let this happen. There is no need for this.
Overdorf..Littman..Modrak, cannot run a football team.
They cannot handle negotiations, drafting or hiring staff. History proves this. The record proves it.
These are the guys that cut Langston Walker without telling the head coach.
Not that he should not have been cut but that is a caoching decision not a $$$ money decision.We will never crawl above an 8 & 8 team until that part of the organization is fixed.
Amazing post, bro. You manage to simultaneously propose a thesis I agree with -- the front office is totally dysfunctional -- yet cite as evidence their handling of the Whitner contract talks -- which happens to be totally brilliant.
He likes Buffalo, wants to continue his career as a Bill? Great. Enter into contract talks where your propose paying him as the average safety he is.
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From the analysis of others (I admit that I myself am incapable of OLine analysis, in large part because I don't have access to recorded Bills games) I gather that Bell has the qualities that make a LT elite, qualities that can't be taught, e.g. balance, agility, and foot speed. But he lacks in strength. Seeing as how he spent last offseason training to rehab, I'm hopeful (and confident, duh) that he'll be able to make up for this before next season by hitting the weights a lot harder and getting his strength to where it needs to be.
This is correct.
And it's a moot point anyway since the Bills announced via Mark Gaughan article that Bell is coming back as LT next year.
This team is going to try to win with Fitzy and Bell at the 2 most critical positions on offense. Not sure I see these guys capable of a Lombardi Trophy, but playoffs a definite possibility with these 2 if holes are filled elsewhere (LB and DE).
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There are some here who have already decided that Spiller has been a big disappointment, or even a bust. To you I say look at what Darren McFadden has become this year. Prior to this year he did almost nothing as the 4th overall pick a few years ago. This year he's tearing it up.
Freddy Jackson turns 30 this year and will be hitting the wall that ALL rbs hit eventually. He probably has 2 more good years in him. When he hits that wall Spiller should be more than ready to break through.
First, there's a difference between trading down and getting a guy like Spiller at 20-30 (range for guys like Felix Jones and Chris Johnson) and taking him at 9 overall.
Secondly, for every Darren McFadden, there's 25-30 guys who suck their rookie year because their skills don't translate to the pros, they're injury-prone, or they have personal issues that prevent them from being good pros.
Basically, if they suck their rookie year, there's a greater than 50% chance they're not going to work out. By year 3, it's about 100% chance.
So, yes, Run DMc shows that it's not a foregone conclusion, but it's more likely than not that Spiller is not going to be worth a 9th overall pick at the very least.
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Wow, who pissed in your cornflakes?
Tell me, what GM has hit on every single draft pick they ever made? IMO, Modrak came in with Donahoe and should have been fired with Donahoe. The Bills have been filled with would of's, should of's, could of's for years. If Ralph didn't fire Bill Polian, the Bills would of... If the Bills wouldn't have put Rob Johnson in the wild card game vs the Titans, the Bills could of... If the Bills would have drafted McKinnie, Ngata, Revis, Oher/Matthews/Orakpo instead of Mike Williams, Whitner, Lynch and Maybin the Bills should of... All of it happened, but yet we still follow the Bills.
Every pick is like a lotto ticket. The first round should have a 50% hit rate, while 7th round should have a 5-10% hit rate. Modrak is WAY, WAY below the first round expectations. Maybe he's on target for later rounds. Whooopeee!
I come to this Board to vent about my frustrations as a Bills fan, but instead of empathy I often get "hey, actually this guy who's most responsible for making your life miserable with crappy talent evaluation is really good."
In the latest incarnation, this argument is that while Modrak routinely blows top picks, he's great at late round/UFAs.
No he's not.
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Nelson only had 3 catches for 25 yards this year...DAMN!!! I wonder if he will be cut loose in the offseason?
I thought we ALWAYS hit on later round picks?
Oh, you mean that our typical selection after the 3rd round has just as high a failure rate?
Screw all of you who want to use the occasional decent late round selection or UFA signing to defend the abysmal college player evaluation track record of Tom Modrak.
For every David Nelson/Stevie Johnson there's 5 Xavier Omons, Alvin Bowens, Nic Harris, Dwayne Wrights, CJ Ah Yous, and Shawn Nelsons.
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He's not going anywhere. His contract from this point on is actually cheap compared to other WRs. There's really no point to cut him. As for trading him? We could probably get a 4th or 5th round pick for him. Not worth it.
Don't worry. The Bills don't use this kind of logic.
We had already eaten the bulk of Dockery's contract when he was released too.
Ralph may just decide he doesn't want to pay the $1 million roster bonus next year and no argument about how his $3.025 million base salary for 2011 is cheap will convince him.
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This just shows how freaking stooopid our coaching staff is to put this guy in at ILB to start the season.
Unbill-evable how dumb these people are.
Even when Blind Squirrel Tom Modrak finds a nut in the next James Harrison, the boneheads at OBD have to screw it up until injuries and previous draft disasters (A. Maybin) force their hand.
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Give him some more time, jeez.
Yep. Just like Maybin. And Whitner. And McCargo. And McKelvin.
Just wait till next year when all of these guys magically turn it on.
Face it: Spiller's skill set doesn't look like it translates to the NFL. Hope I'm wrong.
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Modrak just scouts and makes reports and recommendations based on what he has seen. Two years ago he was very high on Cushing, but DJ and Co. pushed for Maybin.
There is only so much Modrak can do. He isnt in charge of making the actual picks.
He also had Maybin rated as best pass rusher.
Oh, and Cushing isn't the same guy since he's been off the juice.
How you people defend this guy is beyond me. It's battered wife syndrome.
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This thread will quickly devolve into a "what a wasted pick" thread.
As well it should.
Bulaga at 9 looks pretty good in retrospect. Again, thing about this team that drives me crazy is that polls on message boards would result in better first round performance.
Spiller is undoubtedly talented, but his skill set is high risk because it often doesn't translate in the NFL. It's almost like he has to reprogram himself not to bounce it to the outside every chance he gets. Thinking too much slows you down.
When I look at this roster, I just don't see how we could afford to take the risk on this kind of project. I also don't think these guys appreciated what they had in a young (in terms of downs played) Fred Jackson.
For the risk and need, this WAS a wasted pick, pure and simple.
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They should waive the personnel evaluator who recommended signing him. I'm serious. How does that person continue to collect a paycheck? What possibly could qualify as "failure" within OBD enough to warrant termination?
This signing was the brainchild of Buddy Nix and new pro personnel director Whaley.
Hey - the Bills needed depth at the position, gave CG a shot, he didn't work out, they waived him. Green's not the reason the team is 2-8 right now, and waiving him says the Bills are committed to pruning the dead branches from the tree. (Albeit ever-so-slowly.)
Fair enough, but it was a move that definitely reflects poorly on the front office.
Makes me less confident about extensions for Stevie and Fitz.
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We're still 0-8, but probably get blown out against Baltimore, NE and this week as well. Gailey has really made an impact on this offense. The future is very bright for our offense.
Um, we'd have won in KC and against the Bears at least. Probably pulled out another one.
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What a BLEEP you are. I don't like to go out and call people names, but come on man. Really? The guy builds winning teams. Not everyone is gonna be a sure pick. But as others have already posted, look at what he finds in the later rounds. He finds solid players for his team to be competitive. And seriously when was the last time the Colts didn't make it to the playoffs????? I'd take Bill Polian back in a heartbeat.
Top of the draft is a coin flip as to whether you'll get a solid player and thereafter the odds fall. If you do better than 1 in 2 contributors in the first two rounds you'll have a lot of success in this league. Do worse and you're Tom Modrak.
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It's share the team or have no team.
PTR
It's true. Accept it or come up with a way to reverse 50 years of economic decline that has eroded the area's ability to sell hundreds of luxury suites for $300,000 a pop.
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You believe that Ralph had never heard of Shanahan? What about Russ Brandon flying out to interview him?
And how about that (I remember it!) Bruce Allen?
Yeah that visit with Shanny was a stroke of genius. Bills fans like you believed the bills were really "big game hunting" and Dan Snyder believed the Bills were really in the bidding for his services.
Gaughan's Indictment of Modrak
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
Are any of you employed? Do you not understand how organizations work? This is the guy in charge of our drafts -- sent out to the media for a lunch before the draft, available for the media after the draft, spends the entire year developing dossiers on players for the draft, etc. -- but you somehow need "proof" that his job is IN FACT his job?
Are you on crack?
Scapegoat? The guy heads our college scouting operation and runs the draft. This is about accountability.
The proof is in the roster. How does the guy who runs the draft get off without any responsibility for terrible drating?