st pete gogolak
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Posts posted by st pete gogolak
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If you look at Young's career stats, they are pretty unimpressive (57% completion percentage, 46-51 TD to INT ratio). The exception is over 500 yards rushing and 7 rushing TD's as a rookie. On the other hand, the guy was an incredible college player and has amazing physical tools. Sometimes the light never comes on for a QB and sometimes it comes on late in a career. He's 29 and if he's signed, it's to COMPETE for a back-up job. The FO and coaching staff will have an entire pre-season to see if the skills are still there, if his head is in the game, if he will be a good fit in the locker room, etc. I really hope that they sign him. The upside is there and there is very little, if any, downside. The only downside I can see is that you'd be signing Young and bypassing another candidate for bak-up QB. Who exactly would that be?
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We've got seven CB's (McGee, Florence, McKelvin, A. Williams, Rogers, Gilmore and Brooks). Assuming we keep five or six and assuming no UDFA makes the team, who stays and who goes? Obviously, Williams and Gilmore are locks. I assume that absent a horrendous camp, they'll keep a #4 round pick. Rogers looked very good at the tail end of last year. Do you try to peddle McKelvin in his contract year and pick up a draft pick in 2013? Do you cut one or both of the vets (McGee and Florence) loose? I vote for showcasing McKelvin in preseason and trying to get a #4 or #5 for him from a team that finds itself in need of a corner.
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If Seattle is getting crushed by the "experts" for picking a one-trick, pass rushing "specialist" who can't play the run at #15, why we're we crushed for picking Maybin at #11? Was it because the "experts" for whatever reason pegged Maybin as first round material and Irvin as second?
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Bruce Irvin is the Aaron Maybin of the 2012 draft
Close. Bruce Irvin is Aaron Maybin 2.0 with character issues! Ridiculous pick.
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Definitely trade up for JAX's no. 1 and take Roetlisberger (big, strong kid out of Miami OH). JAX is looking for impact wideout and there will be several available at #13 (maybe Lee Evans out of Wiconsin).
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OK. Time to splash a little cold water on draft expectations. Here's a list of #10 picks since 2000:
2011 - Gabbert
2010 - Alualu
2009 - Crabtree
2008 - Mayo
2007 - Okoye
2006 - Leinhart
2005 - M. Williams (DET)
2004 - D. Robinson
2003 - Suggs
2002 - L. Jones
2001 - Reynolds
2000 - T. Taylor
It's a pretty grim picture as the #10 spot is littered with total busts (Travis Taylor, Jamal Reynolds, Leinhart), busts in the making (Gabbert), some ok players and two All-Pro/Pro Bowl types (Mayo and Suggs). Maybe it is not a coincidence that the two best players were picked by franchises with strong track records in the draft (NE and BALT). By the ten hole, all the truly elite players are gone and you have to pick one player from a group of 10-15 very comparable players. Not that easy to do.
Here's a reason for optimism however. The #11 pick over the last tweleve years has been treasure trove of great, great players (JJ Watt, Willis, Cutler, Ware, Roethlisberger, Freeney). (Biggest exceptions were two guys named Maybin and McKelvin.) Moral of the story. Forget about need and draft BPA.
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I'll disagree pretty violently on the characterization of Matt Light being a "good" but not "great" pick. If you can get consistent Pro Bowl-level play out of a left tackle for a dozen years, I would put that down as a great pick, especially for a second rounder. Light hasn't missed much time and is part of what arguably has been the best
O-Line in the NFL for the last twelve years, keeping the pretty boy clean as the driven snow.
Hopping on the Captain Hindsight bus, if we had made Hutchinson and Light our first two selections in 2001 (and God knows the O-Line was the weakest part of the team), we would have had a rock solid left side of the O-Line for a dozen years.
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What if the Dolphins are stupid enough to offer the Vikings an attractive package to move up to the three hole to pick Tannehill? The one thing the Browns don't need is a left tackle. Would they trade out of the four hole and slide to 10? What would it take to make that move? A second? I'd do that move for Kalil. Personally, I think the Vikings sit tight and take Kalil number 3.
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Man, I'm glad you brought up F Troup. I loved that show as a kid.
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The advantages of spygate are so over exaggerated that its not even funny. Truth is, every team has a endless amount of film of schemes of their opponents. The likelihood that they found something that the other film doesn't already show is minimal at best, and even then it would be maybe a play or two that they may not even run in a game. If you talk to any person with any knowledge of game planning for a football game at a high level they will tell you more was made of it than it really is and lots of teams have done things like this.
The reason they won those games is very very simple...more talent in the FO and on the field in the SB years than in the more recent years. For one, the D was substantially better back then and has been a sore spot for sometime now.
Lets also be REALISTIC here...Literally TWO PLAYS cost NE the both SB victories. In the first one, it was the dropped INT just before the Tyree miracle catch (or you can even say the fluke catch by a WR who couldnt even make the squad the following season despite being the SB hero) cost them a victory in that one. In this last one, the Welker drop would have been a NE win if he had held onto that ball. And thats a catch he makes 8 out of 10 times. So, outside of two plays, NE would be 5-0 in the SB's including an undefeated season where they TROUNCED just about every opponent they played outside the SB against a devastating front 7.
I am no Pats fan, but it gets soooooo old listenting to people whine over something so insignificant in terms of the actual games being played. On one hand I understand that most people have never played football, at least at a higher level, and dont realize the minimal impact it really had (if any at all)...but get over it. They beat us just about every time we play them because we have sucked for the last decade after terrible personnel and front office decisions, and they havent because they are literally one of the best run organizations in football and have one of the best QB's to play the game and one of the best coaches of our generation.
I mean these guys AGAIN have a ton of early picks, including 2 firsts and 2 seconds...this is a team coming off a 13-3 season and a SB birth, yet they are going to have a ton of ammo going into the draft to fill the few holes they have (WR, Front 7 and Secondary) either through drafting or trading. I would kill to have a front office that could pull that off year end and year out. That is why they are SB contender every year for the last decade, and even before that, while we have been rebuilding mostly since the 90's. There success is not because of some stupid tapes that had little significance.
You are what your record says you are - even when it comes to the Super Bowl. They should have lost to the Rams (Belicheck badly outcoached Martz) and could have lost to the Panthers. So if the breaks hadn't gone their way, they could have been 0-5 or 1-4 in the Super Bowl. But they went 3-2. You are what your record says you are.
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You make an excellent point in comparing Upshaw with Couples. There is not doubt that Couples can be a more dynamic player than Upshaw. But when it comes to being consistently competitive on all plays Upshaw is definitely going to be more dependable. I don't want to use a high draft pick on a player that I then have to worry about their consistent effort, especially when I know there is a plalyer available who you don't have to worry about over effort and preparation.
A long time ago during the Polian/Levy era the Bills were debating whether to draft the highly rated but more mercurial player, DT Jerome Brown, or to take LB Shane Conlan. When Polian brought up the issue to Levy and asked for his opinion Levy told him you need not ask which player is a better player but which player will make your team better. The Bills ended up drafting Conlan and the Eagles drafted Brown. Jerome Brown ended up getting killed in a tragic auto accident in which he was speeding. Shane Conlan ended up as an instrumental defensive player during the Bills' most successful era.
Let's not over think this pick. Take the more mature player who can be dependable right from the start.
No offense to either Conlan or Brown but if we pick Brown (and actually hire at the same time a DC worth a damn who can see we have the most dominant 4-3 DE in the history of the game and instantaneously switch us to a 4-3 defense) we win one or two Super Bowls. I can't even begin to imagine the havoc Bruce Smith and Jerome Brown create playing next to each other in an aggressive 4-3 (with Talley and Biscuit at OLB). I defy you to tell me that team would not have won at least one Super Bowl.
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Who were the big free agent signees on New England, the Giants, Baltimore and Pittsburgh? I think all of those
teams have been very successful without signing many "big name" free agents.
For the most part, this is true, but NE built the beginning of its run with some critical mid-level FA's (Rodney Harrison, Vrabel) and they have spent money on guys who haven't worked out (Roosevelt Colvin, Adalieus Thomas). They also stole Corey Dillon and Randy Moss in trades.
There have also been teams very dependent on FA's for their success. Look at NO with Brees, Sproles, Vilma and Greer just to name few.
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The Eagles ' D was swearing up and down when Spygate came out that it impacted that SB game--anyone else remember how the Pats* always called a screen at the right time in that game, almost like they knew what was coming? That's all I needed to see to determine how big a bunch of cheaters the Pats* are....
Speaking of always knowing when to call a screen, does anyone remember the home game against the Pats during the 2002 season (Gregg Williams' second year, we finished 8-8, Pats coming off first Super Bowl win finished 9-7 and missed the playoffs)? I sat there watching and said it was absolutey uncanny that the Pats knew exactly when to call a screen. They killed us with screens all day long.
That game was also the infamous punt Williams called from the Pats' 32 yard line.
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This isn't even close to being close. It's the Music City Miracle. That team had a Super Bowl caliber defense and it may have gotten us to the game. I tend to doubt it would have happened because our O-Line was totally beaten up and subpar even when healthy. At the beginning of the season, I thought that the 1996 team could be a Super Bowl team but the reality was that team was OK but far from great. Kelly was on his last legs, the O-Line wasn't very good (sound familiar?) and other veterans were slowing down. As good as Bruce Smith was that year, Tony Boselli absolutely owned him in that playoff game. As also pointed out by other posters, Natrone Means ran all over us. Even if that team had squeaked out a win against JAX, it wasn't going anywhere. The 1999 team was a different story. It lost on a fluke play on the road to a team that came up one yard short of sending the Super Bowl into overtime.
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At the risk of being called grammar police, dominant is an adjective. Dominate is a verb.
Finding talent is step 1, which the Bills still have not accomplished at the money positions, QB, LT, 43DE/34OLB, WR, and CB. There are some younger players, but nothing proven at any of those positions aside from SJ.
Step 2 is deciding whom to retain, which Buffalo isn't quite at yet. Buffalo does have Johnson up for a contract, and then Byrd and Levitre next season followed by Wood.
Rosters turnover quickly, but that in and of itself isn't necessarily a good thing. The Bills have done it many times over with the same mediocre result.
Iknow the difference between "dominant" and "dominate". Just didn't pick up the mistake before hitting send.
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The Pats have something like six players (Brady, Welker, Light, Mankins, Wilfork and Gotkowski - Koppen and Wright are on IR) left from their 2007-2008 Super Bowl team. That's about a 90% turnover in four years. So what is the take-away from this fact?
- If you've got a Hall of Fame coach and a Hall of Fame quarterback, the rest is pretty much filler;
- They don't overpay middle of the road veteran players. They let them walk. The holdovers from four years ago are All-Pro caliber or close to it (except for the kicker). That's why they can have a dominate team for a decade and still have a bunch of cap room.
- They're ruthless in getting rid of veterans for draft picks (see above) and trading down on draft day for more picks. It allows faster turnover of roster but still brings in fresh talent.
- For all their high draft picks, their drafts have been really mediocre. They've had some impressive hits (Mayo, Gronkowski, Hernandez) but a huge number of misses. (Check out their attempts to draft a wide receiver over the last ten years). Last year's draft was a joke. On a team needing defense, they draft OL, RB, RB and QB in first three rounds.
- Don't know what league average is but it's probably around 75% for roster turnover in four years. That's why when the Bills or posters to this site talk about a three, four or five year plan, you can't do anything but laugh. Next year is it for Buddy and Chan to show it's going in the right direction.
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Wes Welker is a "mid-level" free agent? Four years of 100+ catches, four years of 1,000 yards, four Pro Bowls, best slot receiver in the game. That Wes Welker? Can you please name your "top tier" free agent wide recievers?
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I put this in a different thread but it disappeared into the ether. Assuming Manning is healthy and assuming the Colts don't pay him the March bonus and he becomes a free agent (two pretty big IFs, especially the former), there is one team that absolutely should make a run at Manning. It's not the Jets, Dolphins or Redskins. Each of those teams is a mess. It's certainly not the Bills. It' the 49'ers. Alex Smith is Ryan Fitzpatrick with a lower interception ratio. He's a free agent. No need to resign him. They have a monster defense, great tight end, good running game and young and improving o-line. Sign one of the veteran free agent wideouts, use your #1 pick on a wideout, plug Manning into that mix and you're next year's favorite to win the Super Bowl. You're not even mortgaging your "future". 49'ers spent #2 round pick last year on Colin Kaepernick. You could groom him behind Manning for another year or two like Packers did with Rogers. It make too much sense not to happen.
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I have no idea if Peyton Manning's health will allow him to play another year in the NFL. Let's assume he gets a clean bill of health and wants to play another year or two. I have no idea if the Colts want him back or will cut ties with him in March. Let's assume that firing the Polians and Caldwell signals that the Colts will start from scratch and rebuild with Luck. That makes a heathly Peyton Manning a free agent come March. What team will sign him?
It won't be Washington. Team's a mess plus I don't think he wants the drama of playing Eli twice a year.
It won't be Miami. Team's a mess, new coach plus I don't think he wants to play Brady twice a year unless he has the team behind him to beat Brady.
It won't be New York Jets. Team's a disaster in waiting, Sanchez situation is messy and again I don't think he wants to go up against Brady twice a year unless he's got a great team behind him.
There is a perfect spot for him. San Francisco. Alex Smith is a free agent. Don't resign him. He's Fitzpatrick except he doesn't throw as many picks. You've got arguably the best defense in the NFL, an ok but hopefully young and improving O-Line, a potentially great tight end, and a really good running game. Pick up one of the free agent wideouts (V. Jackson, D. Jackson, Bowe or S. Johnson), draft a wide-out no.1 and you are absolutely set to challenge for a Super Bowl win. You're not even screwing up your "future". SF spent a #2 on Colin Kaeperick last year. Start Peyton for two years while you continue to groom him a la Rogers. It makes too much sense not to happen.
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On 3rd down all Flacco had to do was dive his 6'6" frame a yard for a first down. Get up and call a timeout. Flacco is clearly not a Franchise QB, he showed no situational awareness, Not to mention WTF kind of stupid play did they call on 3rd and 1 in order to go to the Super Bowl.
They had 4 WRs 20 yards down the field. Cam Cameron screwed the pooch on top of Flacco being an idiot.
They had great protection on the play, they just needed a couple receivers anywhere near the first down marker.
That whole series was a debacle.
1st down. - Boldin fumbles out of bounds - If he hangs on to the ball its a first down.
2nd down - Fricking Lee Evans goes lackadaisical and doesn't protect the ball. I contest it was not a good play by the 10th string defender. It was a simple "ball check" that happens on every play. Lee just didn't secure the ball. It's not like the player punched out between his arm pit and arms. He just got his hand on top of the ball. A veteran WR like Lee Evans should have secure a relatively easy catch like that.
3rd down - Fricking Cam Cameron can't call a play to get a yard at least Play Action!!! You have a frisking timeout. And Flacco can't recognize that no one is open and no one is in front of him just dive for the yard after you step up.
4th down - Seriously ! That was a huge shank. That doesn't even count as a miss. It's like Tee-ing off and hitting a Water hazard on the NEXT HOLE it wasn't even anywhere near the uprights.
I blame Flacco and Cam Cameron more than anyone else, but Lee Evans gets a nice 20% chunk of blame too.
It's good of him to step up and own it.
Agree with all of this wholeheartedly. Cam Cameron was atrocious all game long. No wonder he's gone. Unbelieveably overrated OC. So you've got 3 and 1 on the Pats 20 with 22 seconds left and you've got a time out. Run a draw or even a quarterback draw. If you're stuffed, call your timeout and set up your chip-shot field goal. If you pick up five or six yards, you may have opportunity to spike the ball and still have 8 - 10 seconds left for legitimate shot into the end zone. Even if you call your time out, you'll still have one shot at the end zone.
Also, of the dozen or so plays the Ravens will have all off-season to contemplate, a forgotten one is Flacco's screw-up not seeing a wide-open Vonta Leach for the TD after the turnover in the end-zone. It would have put them up by 8 in the fourth quarter. Flacco played a decent enough game (decent, not great) but that one was a killer.
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Note, however, that in a 16 game schedule, we played only 5 games against play-off teams and that includes games against 8-8 Denver and 9-7 Cincinnati. Despite that schedule, we still only finished 6-10 - 4-7 against non-playoff teams.
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It would be nice but besides the Bills having bigger needs, these ultra tight ends are hard to come by.
There's only about 5-6 of these guys in the NFL.
I don't know if there are any in this year's draft but I haven't heard that there is.
Guys like Jimmy Graham and Vernon Davis don't come out every year.
Actually, they do! Gronkowski, Graham and Hernandez all came out in the 2010 draft. We had a chance to draft every one of them (2nd, 3rd and 4th round) and instead selected Troup, Carrington and Easley!
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Pete Gogolak
Thank you. Personally, it would be my good friend Daryl Lamonica.
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Top 4 needs:
LBs and DEs (probably 2)
Top flight receiver who is open even when he is covered (Calvin Johnson type) - you know this is the 1st round pick as everything is pointing that way
Add a tackle
Can never have enough DBs
Merrimen is back if healthy
He is confident Stevie and Fred will be extended
Heck, yes! Let's go get "one of those Calvin Johnson types"!
Will Moats make the team?
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
Let's face it. A bunch of guys were drafted or acquired to fit into a 3-4 (Merriman, Troup, D. Edwards, Moats, Batten, even Sheppard to a lesser extent). Going to a 4-3 means that it's going to be awfully tough to find a home for any of these guys (except Sheppard). I hope Merriman is kept as a pass rush specialist because if he's healthy, he could flourish in that role but if they keep Merriman in that role, I see no possibility of Moats or Batten making the team. I'd also like to see Troup make the team just because he's a high #2 and it's too painful to contemplate cutting a guy picked one spot ahead of Gronkowski.
Also, are they really going to try Alex Carrington at DT? If that's true, if I'm Carrington, I'm asking to be released. Jeez Louise, last year in training camp, they are playing him as a 300 pound OLB! He's either a 3-4 or 4-3 DE. I'd like to hope he's an effective 4-3 DE and that he makes the team in that capacity.