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st pete gogolak

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Posts posted by st pete gogolak

  1. On 2/17/2024 at 4:55 PM, beebe said:

     

    Bills defense in playoff games, Josh Allen era: 

     

    vs Texans - 5.5 yards per play allowed (gave up 19 pts in regulation)

    vs Colts - 6.2 yards per play allowed (gave up 24 pts, bills led by 14 pts until late rally)

    vs Ravens - 4.7 yards per play allowed (gave up 3 pts)

    vs Chiefs - 7.4 yards per play allowed (gave up 38 pts, removed four KC kneel downs for -4 yards)

    vs Patriots - 5 yards per play allowed (gave up 17 pts, including a garbage-time TD)

    vs Chiefs - 7.6 yards per play allowed (gave up 36 pts in regulation)

    vs Dolphins - 3.3 yards per play allowed (gave up 31 pts, but includes defensive score and two other scores via TO)

    vs Bengals - 5.9 yards per play allowed (gave up 27 pts, removed two CIN kneel downs for -1 yards)

    vs Steelers - 5.1 yards per play allowed (gave up 17 pts, including gift-wrapped score off blocked FG)

    vs Chiefs - 8.5 yards per play allowed (gave up 27 pts, removed four KC kneel downs for -6 yards)

     

    The common narrative here is that the Bills defense "comes up short in the playoffs." The truth is, against non Chiefs playoff opponents, the very strong Bills regular season defense has performed the exact same in the playoffs. Against non Chiefs teams (2019 thru 2023), Buffalo's defense gives up an average of 19.7 points and 5.1 yards per play in the playoffs. That's exactly on par with their regular season performance during the same years (2019 thru 2023), where they allowed 19.2 points and 5.14 yards per play. 

     

    But against the Chiefs, the Bills come up short. In their 10 playoff games, their three worst games in yards per play have all come against the Chiefs. These aren't just bad performances, they are epic bad, and would rank among their very worst in a sample of 80+ regular season games in that time frame. 

     

    Again:

     

    vs non Chiefs: 5.1 yards per play, 19.7 points allowed

    vs Chiefs: 7.8 yards per play, 33.6 points allowed

     

    Do you see the difference?

     

    The Bills don't have a playoff defense problem. They don't have a "paper tiger" defense problem.

     

    They have a Patrick Mahomes problem. 

    Your entire premise falls apart when you look at the regular season games between Allen and Mahomes: 2020 - Bills D gives up 27 points and 6.4 YPP (2020 Chiefs were CLEARLY superior team - I thought McDermott’s strategy of letting the Chiefs run all over us but don’t let Mahomes beat us was interesting); 2021 - 20 and 5.0; 2022 - 20 and 6.3; 2023 - 17 and 5.6.  So what’s your argument? Regular season games are meaningless?  Mahomes doesn’t try very hard in regular season games (he sure was crying after this year’s loss)?  Injuries?  Chiefs didn’t have Pacheco in regular season loss. Bills’ D injuries killed them in the post-season.  Or maybe Reid seriously out coaches McDermott in the post-season?  Bills’ D has been the team’s Achilles heel in the last four postseason losses (D was awful in loss to Bengals).  It hasn’t been terribly good in the wins - giving up over 6 yards per play to Old Man Rivers, beating Thompson and Rudolf (hooray!).  The ONE great postseason game from the D was against Jackson.  Bills have defended well against him every time we have a played him. 

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  2. 5 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:


    Well… I’m sure they would prefer not to cut Morse …but they need to find $80m in savings … and even with that long laundry list noted above they still don’t get there..

     

    I would also prefer them to get there without restructuring Diggs and Miller any further … so tough moves like this might have to be made…

     

    They had the opportunity to move on from Bates 2 years back … but elected to keep him and match the Bears tender .. so they must have seen something that perhaps we don’t see as yet …we don’t really know what he has at C as Morse hasn’t missed a game there in years …

     

    Many experts were praising Anderson’s physical play in the preseason. If Morse is cut, I think they will give Anderson a shot at starting center.

  3. Thanks for starting this thread. Went to look at KC’s cap situation. Some crazy stuff there (if I’m reading it right). J. Taylor and Thuney making $10 million more than Kelce (who basically makes the same as Knox - LOL).  The biggest thing that jumps out is how the #### did KC get Chris Jones to play for $5 million this season???  He should fire his agent immediately.

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  4. Really hate the doom and gloom window is closed BS.  Is there a Bills FA you would cry over losing in free agency? Maybe D. Jones. Who else?  How successful have the Bills been in signing impact FA’s?  After 2024 we can dump Diggs and Miller if that is the right play.  Chiefs are under the cap but Chris Jones, Sneed and Gay are FA’s either they sign these guys and there goes their cap or they try to win a SB without one or all of them.  Personally, I believe no Chris Jones, no SB for the Chiefs.

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  5. I know I shouldn’t get upset by this stuff but Get Up had a segment this morning: which QB will win their first Super Bowl next?  Greenberg had his five ranked (5) Herbert; (4) Jackson; (3) Burrow; (2) Purdy; and (1) Love.  Why NFC QB’s # 1 and 2?  AFC QB’s can’t get by Mahones, maybe an NFC QB will get there and then luck out to a win.  The three other panelists had Burrow as their pick. Why?  Only Burrow has the mental strength to look across the field at Mahones and say to himself, “ I’m going to win this game”. Paraphrasing but you get the point.  How about Allen?  This year was his best chance and he couldn’t get it done (said the same about Jackson).  
     

    Honestly, I’m thinking of switching to being a fan of the Premier League for a couple of years.  This stuff is going to be unbearable.8

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  6. In looking at the numbers, it appears that it is more terrible luck than gross mismanagement.  $30 million for White, Miller and Milano.  White signed his contract in his prime when he was one of the very best corners in the league.  Nobody’s complaining about Milano’s contract.  Yes, Miller was a significant gamble but if he didn’t tear his ACL, I doubt anyone is complaining about it.  If all three are 100% healthy, we probably win the SB. But they weren’t and we didn’t.

     

    If Greenlaw doesn’t tear his Achilles walking on the field (!), maybe SF beats KC.  Nobody wants to admit it but luck does indeed play a big part in all of this.

  7. 37 minutes ago, sullim4 said:

     

    This I think is the right solution.

     

    Play 15 minute quarters, each team gets 2 timeouts, include a 2 minute warning, and whoever is winning at the end of the quarter is the winner.  If it's still tied, add on another quarter and 2 timeouts.  Every 2 quarters of overtime gets a halftime break.  This amount of time almost guarantees one possession each and also forces teams to employ strategies around eating the clock.

     

    The current system is overly complex for no good reason.  I wish they'd do the same thing with the 10 minute overtime periods in the regular season.

    The problem with this is that if it’s not the SuperBowl or even conference championship, do you really want your team to play a game and a half (or more) and then play another game a week later?  I know that they have different rules for regular season OT and playoffs but I assume you at least want a uniform OT rule throughout the playoffs.

  8. I always thought soccer was weird in not having sudden death when teams go into overtime (sometimes they do - a golden goal, sometimes they don’t).  A team gives up a goal and then has a chance to tie or win and it goes to more overtime or penalty kicks (which is an awful way to end a match).  Maybe that would be the “fairest” way to go in NFL playoffs - 15 minute overtime.  If the game is tied at that point, then moves to sudden death.

  9. Interesting to take a quick look at kicker salaries.  Tucker makes $6 million, Bass $5, Butker and Elliot $4.  A few mediocre kickers make more than Bass.  The real deal is the rookie on Dallas who makes 55 yarders like they are extra points.  He makes less than $1.  30 years ago, Jimmy Johnson said that kickers are fungible.  Not sure if that is true anymore.  These days, you better have someone who you are comfortable putting out there to make 50+ yarders.  If you do, you pay him.  If you don’t, you don’t ( or shouldn’t).   

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  10. Are the Chiefs better than the Bills?  Clearly yes.  It’s silly to argue otherwise. Three time SB champion; 3 -  0 v. Bills in playoffs, etc.

     

    What grinds my gears are the several posters who talk about the huge chasm between the two teams.  One talked about how the Chiefs are a lock to dominate the next ten years (10 years!).  
     

    Two arguments there, one looking backward and one forward.  Backward. The Bills have played 7 games against the Chiefs the last four years (5 in their building). Record 3 - 4, points 183 - 190; yards over the last five games are essentially a push (1996 - 2038). We win turnover battle 11 - 4.  I don’t see how anyone can argue there is some wide gulf between the two teams.  I’m firmly convinced that if we don’t suffer the defensive injuries in the Miami and Pittsburgh games (forget about White and Milano), we comfortably beat KC in this year’s divisional round.  
     

    How about looking forward? Chiefs have cap room, we don’t.  But they may lose some combination of Jones, Sneed and Gay.  Either that or there goes their cap space.  Our offense comes back intact.  There isn’t a FA on D I’d shed a tear losing (other than Jones).  In fact, I think injecting a bunch of youth on the D  will be a huge positive.

     

    No team has won three SB’s in a row.  Injuries, complacency or just bad luck catches up to the best teams.  I’m not going to be doom and gloom about our team. Not as long as Allen is healthy.

  11. It’s been pointed out numerous times here that playoff failures over the last five years are invariably defensive failures (giving up an average of 33 PPG over the last four losses).  So really the mystery comes down to why a defense that is typically a top performing regular season defense poops the bed in the postseason.  I’m a believer that the bend but don’t break, soft zone defense needs to be revamped.  Look to the Rams’ “Greatest Show on Turf” defenses.  Super aggressive, built to play with a lead and cause turnovers.  Not particularly a good defense.  WE NEED TO CHANGE DEFENSIVE PHILOSOPHY!  It’s been said many times, what is the definition of insanity?  Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.

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  12. 3 hours ago, Peevo said:

     

    As we are both Millennial Bills fans, I imagine responses here will cleave along generational lines.

     

    "Embarrassing" can take many forms. Sure, they got killed in the Superbowl.  That's a bad game.  It happens. Bills aren't the only team to get blown out in the Superbowl.

     

    The Bills CHOSE to remove home games from their fans, and play in Toronto.  That's indefensible.  

     

    The entire post Mularkey drought deserves consideration for this though.  There's so many blunders.

    • Trading All-Pro LT Jason Peters in his young prime (probably a Hall of Famer)
    • Trading Marshawn Lynch in his young prime for peanuts (none of the return made any impact on Bills)
    • Games in Toronto, then extending the Toronto series, then giving yourself credit for ending the extension of the series a year after
    • Extending Dick Jauron
    • Signing Terrell Owens
    • The decision to redesign the jerseys & color scheme when Drew Bledsoe came to Buffalo
    • The coterie of powerful, shadowy, old, male executives at One Bills Drive during the drought who kept getting paychecks yet never took responsibility for any of the team's failures.  
      • Tom Modrak - what did he do all day? no like seriously what was his job there?
      • John Guy - same question as above
      • Bud Carpenter - used outdated injury treatments on players, was hesitant to oversight or change. Doug Marrone wanted to fire him, and the head coach DIDN'T HAVE THE POWER TO FIRE HIS TRAINER
      • Scott Berchtold - PR exec that ruled the press box with an iron fist. 
        • Remember when he denied "knowing anything about" that cancelled halftime celebration on the field for Ralph during the Browns 6-3 game?
        • There was controversy with the media when Troy Vincent broke JP Losman's leg at training camp. 
        • WGR 550's Paul Hamilton reported it very differently than the "company line" and it's caused tension between the two camps for years
      • Jeff Littman - mysterious financial advisor who was never available to the media
      • Jim Overdorf -  still employed?  Didn't he cut Troy Vincent without anyone else's knowledge?

     

    Well done. What a ####show.  It really is essential to have an owner who wants to win above all else (not that that guarantees winning).  Just out of curiosity, took quick look at stats from SB 26 and 28 - 26 four INT’s and a lost fumble (six fumbles altogether!); 28 - two lost fumbles and one INT.  So in three consecutive SB’s, the Bills turned the ball over 17 times!  Average almost six turnovers per game. Incredible.  

  13. My “Mahones Ball Washing Thread” should NOT have been merged into a Mahones v. Brady thread.  Totally different topics.   Could care less about comparisons between the two.  My thread concerned the MEDIA. Specifically how the talking heads judge QB greatness upon the rings to the exclusion of pretty much everything else and give QB’s credit for championships to the exclusion of pretty much anyone else.

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  14. 5 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

    Ok. And I agree with that. Players like Marino, Kelly, Warren Moon., Barry Sanders, Larry Fitzgerald..all great without them.

     

    Then again, when you add the  MVPs, the numbers and the things he's accomplished during his time as a starter thus far it at the very minimum makes it a conversation. I mean, win or lose Sunday with what he's done this far he's at minimum a HoF QB and on the first ballot even if he never takes another snap in the NFL in my opinion.

    Don’t get me wrong. I agree he is a great QB, but so many more factors go into winning a championship: HC, OC, decent OL and skill positions. Defense for God’s sakes.  Just hate when commentators act like it’s Borg v. McEnroe.

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  15. 7 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

    Just a question without passing judgement. Would your feelings be different if it was the Bills going for their third ring this weekend with Allen being a 2 time MVP and the same was being said? No wrong answer.

    Nope.  Rings should not be sole criteria of greatness.

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  16. I enjoy Mike Greenberg and Get Up but yesterday and today they ran segments entitled “Does a Super Bowl Win Make Mahones an Immortal?”.  The point being that no NFL player has won two MVP’s and three championships in his first seven seasons.  Only players who have accomplished that are Bird, Russell, LaFluer, Musial, Mantle and DiMaggio (admittedly a pretty awesome list).  
     

    This stuff drives me crazy. Football is the ultimate team game. It’s not tennis. It’s not golf. Heck, even in basketball one player has immeasurably more impact on the game than any one football player.   Please tell me that Brady would have won 7 SB’s if Brady’s Colts had to beat Manning’s Patriots every year?  And I give Brady enormous credit for (1) winning 4 rings after age 36 (just insane) and (2) winning a title with the Bucs.  
     

    If the Bills had kept their draft pick and selected Mahones would he be going for his third ring this Sunday?  Mahones is good. He is very good.  But please, please stop measuring QB’s in a vacuum based solely on the number of rings that they have.

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  17. Legitimate question.  How did we get here?  What tremendous swings did we take to go “all in”?  Miller, ok, that was a giant swing and a miss because of the injury.  Diggs?  He’s produced and has been paid accordingly.  Am I missing something?  The Rams went “all in” and won a Super Bowl.  What did we get?  The fuzzy end of the lollipop.

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