wardigital

Someone just told me Jackson and Lynch both came out injured... is this true?

This is embarrassing. Half the starting defense is still in, the Redskins are starting to rotate in their depth/to-be-cut guys, and we're still getting WORKED.

Boy, Trent has maybe been the worst on the field so far.

Ha! He's already the starter on mine, too. I went 5-4 with Trent, threw 8 TD/12 INT, so I switched to Fitz who promptly went 0 for 3 with an INT, so I switched to Brown (because it's my alternate universe, damnit). In 1.5 games he's throw 28 of 37 for 300, 3 TD 0 INT, and 2 wins. New starter. If it the game is ultra realistic it means he'll be good for about the first six games of his career before falling apart and being hated for three years, then getting released. Also, CJ Spiller has 7 touchdowns through 11 games. Hooray Madden.

What exactly could possibly lead you to the conclusion that I'm not relaxed? This is a message board, my friend, not warfare. I had enough golf claps in the Jauron era. Instead, head on over to CreateSpace and publish me an apology manifesto.

Well, I think that its lazy to attribute anything the organization is doing now to the drafting of Travis Henry, I don't think that Marshawn Lynch can necessarily be called a flop yet, since the majority of people who dislike him do not deny his talent, just his off-the-field/morality issues, and I don't know why its concluded that Fred Jackson already has a lot of wear and tear. He's had meaningful carries for roughly two seasons.

The Bible is tremendously flawed, seeing as it is mostly fiction. Why ask such a question or use it as an example? I'm an atheist. And yes, it is flawed. When your job is to analyze, and what you are selling is marketed as hard-hitting, accurate analysis of football, it is a distinct indicator of poor analysis when you lazily and mistakenly proclaim that a guy who has never been more than the Fifth Receiver (and at times the Sixth) leap frogs two guys above him for no particular reason other than, I dunno, he was once-upon-a-time drafted high. That's a ridiculous presumption. If you are a fan of the Bills and follow the team casually and you want to posit that James Hardy will be the #2 this year for whatever reason, okay. If you run a football analysis site and are selling $16 copies of a book proclaiming to contain that analysis, and you write a scathing review of a team, you are no longer allowed to make such illogical presumptions. As for "no reader knowing the Bills", well the idea here is that this isn't a football analysis book for Buffalo Bills fans only, and so fans of 31 other teams who pick up this book and read about the Bills are getting an incomplete, inaccurate picture of the team through false statements about Hardy and what happened with Russ Brandon. And so that would naturally lead me to question the truth in the other 31 team reviews, because, believe it or not, I care about and read those too. I get it: The idea behind a book like this is that they can't pull their punches. Football Outsiders *has* to come to some meaningful conclusions about every team in order to write the pieces that they do for their publications. But they release the thing in advance of training camp, they release the thing through the words of just a few writers who, by all accounts, rely almost entirely on statistical analysis for a bulk of the team's work, and so what happens is they create a bunch of lies. This sort of thing happens in history writing all the time. Think about it. A historian does his research utilizing primary and secondary sources but, having not actually been there, can only create the best picture as he/she sees it for what they're writing about. And occasionally on historical topics, like WWII, or something, where there still exists living witnesses of said event, those witnesses can read the piece and say "That's not true". Football Outsiders has the burden of trying to accomplish the same style of research and writing, except every fan of every team is a living witness who can discount the illegitimacies in the book. That's the nature of the beast. It's fundamentally very hard to do what Football Outsiders does, which is to try to stake a claim on the outlook for each team, every year, well in advance of any actual football taking place. Like I've said multiple times, it doesn't mean what they've concluded was wrong. For my money, the Buffalo Bills *are* a mess, just like they said. The fact of the matter is simply that Football Outsiders cut corners, made mistakes, and got lazy in reaching that conclusion. That's fine, but it's not worth defending by posters like you who think any negative press is attacked with a religious devotion by every poster here. I don't know how I can more clearly or explicitly state that I think that the overall theme of the piece is right, while the piece itself is very, very wrong.

Football Outsiders is self-published through Amazon's print-on-demand CreateSpace. It's not as if a publishing company was overwhelmed with their tremendous writing and analysis and felt no choice but to put the product into their print cycle. The decision to put together a paper copy of their Alamanac was entirely their own and not based on any merit whatsoever. For the record, the maintenance man at my place of work just self-published a book through CreateSpace as well. There is literally no qualification to self-publish there except having access to oxygen and a computer. Finally, "breaking on the ball" is a totally subjective thing for which there really can't be a reliable metric. One person's breaking on the ball is another person's anticipation, and the idea of breaking on the ball is totally subject to the individual belief of what that actually means. This is among the litany of reasons that Football Outsiders exists mostly on reputation. I will say this much: Their content generally has some pretty good prose, and its generally readable, but it's sort of goofy to champion it as some sort of accomplishment. I, myself, have self-published two books through CreateSpace... a family history and a present for my fiance for Christmas. Seeing as this is, under your guidelines, some sort of determination of what one has accomplished in their lives, I will be waiting for my apparently well-earned round of applause.

Small sample size and all, but last year I went to the Browns game, the first game I've been to since '99, and Canadians made up about 33% of the attendance in my section and surrounding sections. To me, that qualifies as a market. Maybe they all came to see Cleveland play.

An overwhelming majority of your points here (the author not having enough information to posit Stevie Johnson as the #2, his lack of clarification on what Brandon was "jettisoned' from, etc, etc, etc) are exactly the reason this is a poor article. You're arguing against your own point. If the article was littered with inaccurate praise about the Bills instead of inaccurate criticism, I'd be up in arms too because a) I don't think the Bills are very good b) The issue isn't that he's down on the team, it's that he explains his feelings using false information, which is below the standard of the publication he is writing the thing for.

I don't think that there's any metric that has actually ever been efficiently measured that scientifically concludes what the Bills ticket price threshold is. So there is at least as much evidence that the Bills are selling themselves low as there is that they are at their high watermark.

Well, I can think of a few things there to argue with. I do agree that our WR corps is underwhelming, but there should at least be some effort to know who is the actual #2 (or #3, or #4 etc.) and the answer is not James Hardy. Others have pointed out the other mistakes, so I'll spare you on those. As for Buddy Nix being a joke, I don't think you can make that assessment now. Look: I wasn't happy with the name either, but I think that the Bills take unnecessary criticism on this sort of thing based on skewed perspective. Because of the last decade, I think there is a tendency to believe that the Bills needed to go for high-end experience because their previous gambles haven't worked. But every GM in this league, the good ones and the bad ones, were at one point first-time GMs, and so there is nothing that necessarily says that being new to the position is an automatic marker of failure. I think the more pertinent argument with Nix has been that he's been touted as a "college scouting guy" but there is some question as to the quality of his drafts both here and in San Diego, particularly in the higher rounds. But in terms of him being a General Manager, the jury is out, and he's so far acted with patience and deliberation, which isn't the way to win fans in Buffalo, but it is probably the right thing to do. The culture of this team will not change over night. As far as Edwards being inferior to Fewell goes, I think that's still up in the air too. Let's let him coach some games before we make that statement. Fewell gets lots of praise because of the pass defense last year, but there are a few things to consider there, as well. Not only was the rush defense one of the worst in history at times, but the secondary situation may have not been Fewell's either. While Schatz talks about Drayton Florence, he fails to discuss that under Fewell and Jauron, Jairus Byrd was hardly even on the field for the start of last season, and basically got into the lineup because of luck and injury which doesn't exactly speak to Fewell's coaching greatness. Finally, I'm not satisfied or sold with Gailey as head coach yet, either, but I am willing to give him a shot. I think that using his firing as OC in Kansas City, is, however, poor analysis, particularly for a dude coming from Harvard. To not even mention Todd Haley's alleged issues is an insult to the readership. This doesn't make Gailey a great coach, but I think to use his time in KC as any basis for any conclusions is almost purposely disingenuous. Now, I think the overall tone of his article is correct. I am a bit sad that the Bills didn't really improve the offensive line, quarterbacks or WR this year. I think that Buffalo is probably running into a buzzsaw where teams will, sooner than later, just blitz the snot out of the team, which will kill our running game and our fragile QB corps. In other words, I'm not saying the general conclusion is wrong, but I do think how he came to his conclusions paints an inaccurate picture of what is going on in Buffalo.

I trudged through it, though a lot of his reasons for negativism are based on false premises or out-and-out erroneous. It would be nice to know when this was written and if it was edited at all, exactly? The piece claims James Hardy as the #2 receiver, which hasn't been the case (or even reasonable to presume as the case) in quite a while - maybe even since last year. There seems to be little evidence that Ralph Wilson can't "afford" to pay for a quality coach or front office (wasn't there a recent Forbes posting that said that the Bills were amongst the top 75 most lucrative sports organizations in the world, or something of this sort?) Regardless, Wilson reportedly heaved cash at coaches who didn't want to come here for other reasons, and thats not his fault. We could go through it line-by-line, because there are lots of other inaccuracies, but it is not worth the time. Nevertheless, it's sort of distressing that a publication with the sort of reputation that they have would release this, and makes me wonder about the accuracy of their other team reports. Regardless, it doesn't mean I think the Bills will be any good, I don't really know, but this piece was kind of shameful.

tbarrett should not receive the message that he is what he is because he is 21-years-old. That's sort of a 1970s, high school teacher in the middle of Appalachia mentality that hasn't died as quickly as it should it pockets of the states. That's simultaneously a very egregiously silly, destructive thing to say to a young person. Mostly 'cause it's not really true. There are plenty of 21-year-olds who can handle being told they are wrong without having a 4 page long semantics argument or flying off the handle, plenty of 40-somethings who can't. That is much more an issue of personal responsibility to growing up and not being a lunatic then just generally growing up to be able to live in society. With certain people, they're going to think when they're 40 that they were stupid when they were 20. Then when they're 60 it was that they were stupid when they were 40. And then 80 to 60. And so on. And then you just realize that they went through their entire lives excusing themselves from being stupid. I should point out that I am not 21, nor am I attacking tbarrett (and I hope he understands that). There is little actual measurable evidence that says that a 45-year old has any sort of neurological advantage over a 21-year-old. In fact, quite the opposite. By 21, a far greater number of people have developed their full cognition than say, a 17-year-old, where its like 1 in 10.

I don't mind if we hire Frazier. Just please interview a few more candidates first, preferably at least one with previous NFL HC experience. I just want the process to at least seem thorough, even if its not.

I think about it too. But loyalty is a hard thing to break. I was probably at my wits end when Jauron was brought back to start this season, but I held on. There's just something about growing up with and continuing to follow a certain team that becomes a part of one's identity. I know it's silly because, in the end, we're just rooting for a color scheme and a logo. The Bills don't "love us back", as they say, but being a sports fan is essentially saying, "The teams I root for are an extension of what I am, they are the embodiment of my feelings and outlook on certain things." So to leave them for another team for a real sports fan would almost seem like a high treason. It is easy to just always root for winners, and I suppose for a short time it would make games more fun. But in the long run my relationship with the Bills as a fan has existed because at a young age I came to believe that your sports teams were a small part of your actual being, and that abandonment is one of the riskiest, worst things one can do.

Look! at all! these! virgins!

I do not understand why people seem to think that coaches won't go to a place based on area weather or logistics. Coaches don't exactly spend 52-week years in the places they coach.

I would prefer that if that was his preference that he exercised some diligence toward his preference by actually interviewing one. Just one, how about. Preferred. Doesn't mean he has to hire him. Indicating a preference and then doing literally nothing to follow-up on that is exactly the type of backhanded insincerity that requires people to use underlines to try to justify a rather simple yet egregious breech in etiquette. Don't say something you intend to do if you don't actually intend to do it. Preferred.

I encourage you to read my first post in conjunction with my response so that you actually understanding what was being said.

When Buddy Nix responded to the question at his initial press conference, I am pretty sure that he was responding directly to previous NFL coaching experience.

The one thing that this seemingly flies in the face of is the claim by Buddy Nix that having head coaching experience would give candidates an advantage. The reason that I bring this up is because, while it didn't necessarily mean that he'd hire a previous head coach before making a choice, you'd think he'd at least interview one. And we know that Brian Billick, at the very least, wanted an interview. If we hire a Leslie Frazier type, I'm willing to give it a shot. If we hire a Leslie Frazier type without even interviewing some candidates with previous experience, I'm livid. It immediately sets up Buddy Nix as a liar. In the very first thing he does. They can't do that right now.

Jerry Sullivan makes some logical assumptions and/or predictions, but he is a regional writer for a mid-sized market who doesn't have any particularly impressive connections to the team he is covering or the sport as a national entity. Anything he says should be taken only on the basis of his opinion as a long-time sports journalist, and not a reporter.

Seattle is not all that great of a city.

I'll try too! The Cardinals will lose this weekend and Russ Grimm will announce his interest in the job. Monday or Tuesday, a report from ESPN will surface speculating that the Bills had offered a deal to Bill Cowher in excess of $13 million dollars, perhaps with partial ownership stake or a hand in the front office, but that Cowher could not secure a guarantee from Brandon and Wilson that the team was willing to spend an agreeable amount on player expenses. Cowher publicly pulls his name from the mix, and the Bills administration says nothing. A report by Paul Hamilton on Wednesday indicates that the Bills have finally got around to contacting Brian Billick and will be interviewing him. The Bills interview Russ Grimm on Thursday. The Bills fly to Brian Billick and interview him over the weekend. They are generally impressed with his presentation and he has suddenly leapfrogged Leslie Frazier as "their guy" for the job. The Seahawks declare their intention to part ways with Jim Mora Jr. after much speculation over the previous weeks. Desperate to get their deal done before the Seahawks under cut them, the Bills begin negotiations on terms with Billick. Billick is expecting a number in the same range as what Gruden, Shanahan and Cowher were rumored to be receiving from Buffalo, but the Bills do not give him near that as an offer. The Seahawks sign Brian Billick as head coach for 3 years at 5 million per year. Mike Tice signs on as the Seahawks offensive coordinator. Leslie Frazier accepts the head coaching job at a mid-level Division 1 college football program, having believed he was out of the running for the Bills job. An ESPN report claims that the Bills are looking to set up interviews with Cam Cameron, Jason Garrett, Sean McDermott, Jim Harbaugh and Ron Rivera. Jason Garrett declines an interview, likely believing he will be the heir to the throne after Wade Phillips leaves Dallas. Jim Harbaugh declines an interview, stating he has already begun preparation for Stanford's 2010 season. Cam Cameron, Sean McDermott and Ron Rivera interview within 5 days of one another. Russ Grimm is announced the head coach of the Buffalo Bills for 3 years at 3.25 million dollars. The hiring is met with some mixed reaction from Bills fans. Bill Musgrave is announced the Offensive Coordinator. Keith Butler is announced the Defensive Coordinator. Terrell Owens will sign with the Chicago Bears. Buffalo will trade Trent Edwards for a 2011 4th round draft pick and a conditional draft pick to the Carolina Panthers. The Bills draft Russel Okung with their first round pick, and then Jimmy Clausen in the second round. The team trades Roscoe Parrish to San Fransisco for a 6th round draft pick, which they use to draft Freddie Barnes from Bowling Green. Barnes will beat out James Hardy for #3 on the depth chart. Clausen will start the team off with a 2-3 record, despite a horrible passer's rating, before injuring his shoulder in a collision on a running play that will leave him to miss 8 weeks. Marshawn Lynch will demand a trade. Ryan Fitzpatrick will fill in for the 8 weeks going 5-3, despite an unimpressive passer's rating as well. At 7-6 with three games to play, coach Grimm opts to stick with Fitzpatrick for the rest of the season as he gives the team their best chance to make the playoffs. Fitzpatrick and the Bills will go 1-2 and miss the playoffs. Fred Jackson will cross the 1,200 yard plateau, scoring 6 TDs. Lee Evans will lead the team with receptions with 50, Stevie Johnson will come in second and Barnes a distant third. Shawn Nelson will have a break out year. Poz will play in all 16 games, but quietly. Aaron Maybin will see more action, splitting time at OLB and DE. He will get two sacks. Jairus Byrd will come back to earth with a more modest 4 INT year. Two games will be lost on missed Rian Lindell field goals. Donte Whitner will be accused of physical assault by a female significant other. Leodis McKelvin will drastically regress and be replaced by Drayton Florence as the #2 corner. The day after the end of the season, Aaron Schobel will announce his retirement.