VA Bills Fan

Ryan has no class.

Not sure how I got that - I copied/pasted from an email I got. Should I delete? (not like it's booming with interest)

Sorry about low-quality post. I added some paragraph separation. It's from their 2010 Almanac. Save your money -- and your right, 2 of my Pats fans buddies sent that to me, and they worship the guy.

"What a mess. Already struggling in a market no longer big enough to support NFL football, the Buffalo Bills spent the last few months hiring executives who were past retirement age and coaches nobody else wanted who will install schemes for which they don’t have proper personnel. In our last few books, we’ve made fun of the Bills as the league’s least interesting team, stuck on an endless hamster wheel of 7-9 seasons. That’s no longer the case, and not in a good way. The decisions made by the Bills in the past few months would make them the laughingstock of the league if the Oakland Raiders weren’t so reticent to give up the title. Interim head coach Perry Fewell showed some promise after the Bills fired Dick Jauron at midseason. The team finished 3-4, and Buffalo’s overall DVOA in the second half of the season was a respectable 1.3%. Despite Fewell splitting duties as both defensive coordinator and head coach, the Bills had the sixth best defensive DVOA in the NFL over the final two months. Nonetheless, owner Ralph Wilson wanted to clean house after five straight losing seasons, and that meant jettisoning both Fewell (now the defensive coordinator for the Giants) and general manager Russ Brandon (a P.R. guy whose P.R. moves, like signing Terrell Owens, didn’t do much for the Bills on the field). Plenty of big names swirled around the Bills — Bill Cowher, Mike Shanahan, Marty Schottenheimer — but none of them actually came to work for the Bills. (As one former league executive told me, “You really think Mike Shanahan wants to live in Buffalo?”) Instead, the Bills promoted from within, elevating 70-year-old director of college scouting Buddy Nix to be their new general manager. Nix established an excellent record as a scout in eight years serving under A.J. Smith in San Diego, but this is his first time actually running an organization. After the big names that had been bandied about, the Nix hiring was underwhelming, and it seemed to be no accident that the Bills made the announcement on the afternoon of December 31. The prevailing opinion is that the Bills hired Nix because he came cheap. ProFootballTalk.com ran some scathing comments from an unnamed source, who called the hire “a joke and a slap in the face to all hard working people in the NFL… [Wilson] elevates a 70-year-old scout to a position that requires work and energy… The eight years he spent in San Diego he never lived in San Diego. He lived somewhere in Tennessee. Someone who lives in another city is away from the day-to-day operations.” Could the Bills possibly follow up this unpopular executive hire with a less popular coaching hire? Why yes, they could. Three weeks later, the Bills announced the hire of former Dallas and Georgia Tech head coach Chan Gailey, last seen getting fired as Chiefs offensive coordinator before the 2009 season had even started. In an offseason with plenty of bigname, well-established head coaches on the market, the Bills ended up hiring a man no other team was even considering to be an NFL head coach. Gailey’s hallmark as an offensive coordinator has always been his adaptability, like the move to install the Pistol formation when injuries left Tyler Thigpen as Kansas City’s starting quarterback in mid-2008. His adaptability better be on display in Buffalo this year, because there simply is not a lot of offensive talent to work with. Gailey seems to be giving mixed signals about his plans on offense, because media reports have run the gamut from “expect a college-style spread offense like he ran in Kansas City” to “expect a hard-nosed conservative running attack like he ran at Georgia Tech.” While Football Outsiders has generally put forward the notion that passing leads to more success than running, we’re also great believers that you tailor your scheme to your personnel, not the other way around. There’s no question this team’s personnel leans heavily towards running the ball as much as possible. Running back is the deepest position on the team (an issue we’ll get to in a bit). The offensive line was dead last in Adjusted Sack Rate but did a good job on run-blocking (except in short-yardage situations). The team has to pick a quarterback between Trent Edwards, whose ceiling is mediocrity; Ryan Fitzpatrick, whose ceiling is career backup; and Brian Brohm, whose ceiling is higher based on what he did in college but whose NFL performance so far has been in the sub-basement with no ceiling in sight. Worst of all, this team has a grand total of one wide receiver who would be considered good enough to rank at least fourth on an average NFL depth chart. There’s Lee Evans and then dead space. Terrell Owens may have disappointed last year, but he’s a lot better than what he left behind. James Hardy is currently penciled in as the other starting receiver, but he barely got on the field as a rookie, tore his ACL late in the year, and missed most of his second year recovering from it. He showed up out of shape to June OTAs and could barely practice. Behind Hardy is veteran Roscoe Parrish, coming off a three-catch year; longshot sleeper hope Steve Johnson; former New England bust Chad Jackson; and fourth-round pick Marcus Easley, a walk-on at UConn who never started until his senior year and will need a lot of time to develop his instincts and route-running. Lee Evans has accomplished a lot in his career, even when double-covered and paired with a poor quarterback, but this is the worst wide receiver corps in the league from number two on down. The Bills are more definitive about their new defensive scheme, but the decision to go with that scheme is puzzling. The Bills brought in Miami linebackers coach George Edwards to be defensive coordinator and will jump onto the NFL’s very heavy 3-4 bandwagon. For some of Buffalo’s current defensive talent, this is a good thing. 2009 first-round pick Aaron Maybin will fit in perfectly as the pass-rushing weakside linebacker. Paul Posluszny would be good in either the 4-3 or the 3-4. But for the most part, Buffalo’s existing roster was completely wrong for the 3-4. The change hastened the retirement of Buffalo’s best pass rusher, Aaron Schobel. The second-best pass rusher, Chris Kelsay, is too small to play end in the 3-4 and doesn’t have the pass coverage ability to play linebacker. A pass-rushing tackle like Kyle Williams doesn’t fit the 3-4. Marcus Stroud will need to move from 3-technique tackle to 5-technique end in the new scheme. Kawika Mitchell should be able to shift inside, but Keith Ellison and all the bench linebackers are far better fits for the 4-3. Worst of all, the only players on the roster in February who fit the role of nose tackle were two practice squad scrubs signed to future contracts. The Bills were active in the free agent market, signing veterans with 3-4 experience like end Dwan Edwards and linebacker Andra Davis, but the massive increase in teams using the 3-4 over the past couple years means that 3-4 teams are no longer getting more bang for their free-agent buck. The demand for 3-4 players has caught up to, and possibly exceeded, the supply. The confusing decisions continued on draft day. The Bills had a desperate need for wide receivers, an offensive line filled with question marks, and a 3-4 defense with a massive hole in the middle. Dan Williams, the draft’s best 3-4 nose tackle prospect, was available when the Bills selected ninth. Every wide receiver was still on the board. So were outstanding offensive line prospects like Anthony Davis, Mike Iupati, and Bryan Bulaga. The Bills also could have traded down to grab a lineman and a quarterback of the future. Instead, the Bills adamantly chucked the concept of “drafting for need” out the window and took running back C.J. Spiller. (Somewhat in their defense, they did take a nose tackle in the second round, Torell Troup.) As with Denver’s pick of Knowshon Moreno in the first round of last year’s draft, the problem is not Spiller himself. It’s hard to find a scout who didn’t see Spiller as one of the top two or three running backs in this year’s draft, and you’ll get no disagreement from the numbers (his Speed Score is 107.5). However, running back was the strongest position on the Buffalo roster. The Bills averaged 4.4 yards per carry, eighth in the NFL, despite numerous injuries on their offensive line. And this is a position the team has tried to upgrade over and over, spending four high draft picks on starting running backs over the past decade. Travis Henry fell out of favor after the Bills took him in the second round of the 2001 draft, so the team used its first-round pick in 2003 on Willis McGahee. He fell out of favor within a couple years, so Buffalo used its first-round pick in 2007 on Marshawn Lynch, but he fell out of favor within a couple years, which led to the drafting of Spiller. Meanwhile, during all this time the most efficient running back on the Buffalo roster has been an undrafted free agent, Fred Jackson. You would think someone in Buffalo might get the hint. The only upside to the Spiller pick is that he might be Bills’ second-best receiver by season’s end, but that itself says a lot about Buffalo’s depth chart at the position. If you can fight your way through the smoky haze of question marks surrounding this franchise, you can find a few reasons for optimism. The biggest, by far, is the team’s health, which was lousy in 2009. The Bills had more Adjusted Games Lost from starters and important role players than any other NFL team last year, ranking in the top three on both offense and defense. The 2009 Bills have the fifth-highest AGL total of any team in our injury records, going back to 1998. They went through three quarterbacks. Three starters on the opening day offensive line missed most of the year. Every member of the opening day secondary missed at least five games during the season. Unless the Bills have been cursed by whatever ghost haunts the St. Louis Rams, there’s just no way they are going to suffer this many injuries again. Often, a team that improves significantly in health will improve significantly on the field. That’s a big part of what happened with last year’s Bengals. It helped the 1999 Redskins and 2007 Browns each follow a losing season with a 10-6 record. Not every team, however, has ridden this injury trend to a strong season, because sometimes the talent that’s been injured wasn’t very good in the first place. The 2009 Lions didn’t suddenly get a lot better. Neither did the 2004 Raiders, the 2005 Titans, or the aforementioned Rams of recent years. The 2000 Carolina Panthers went 7-9 with one of the 25 highest AGL totals in histor; the next year, with above-average health, they went 1-15. So, which category did the Bills injuries fall under: talented enough to be missed, or replacement-level players replaced by other replacement-level players? Trying to answer that question is a bit confusing because the unit that suffered the most injuries was also the unit where the Bills got the best performance in 2009: the secondary. “How did the Bills have such a good pass defense in 2009?” will go down as one of the great unanswered questions in recent human history, along with “What made a bunch of Palm Beach Jews vote for Pat Buchanan in 2000?” and “Seriously, Gary Cherone in Van Halen?” The Bills put up the third-best pass defense DVOA in the league even though the cornerback who started the most games was Drayton Florence, a complete free-agent bust in Jacksonville the year before. Their rising cornerback star of the future, Leodis McKelvin, broke his leg in the third game of the year. Their original starting free safety, Bryan Scott, ended up playing half the season at linebacker because of all the injuries there. (Actually, this is probably a good way to help the pass defense, although it won’t do wonders for stopping the run.) Buffalo’s mystery pass defense was steady throughout the year, as the pass defense DVOA in the first eight games was within one percentage point of the pass defense DVOA for the final eight games. It was steady across the field, as the Bills ranked in the top ten against all five “receiver types” that we track. It wasn’t the product of unrepeatable good play in specifically important situations — the Bills’ pass defense DVOA was best on second down, not third down, and it was no better in the red zone than it was elsewhere. The Bills stopped opposing quarterbacks without a great pass rush — they only hurried opponents on 13.3 percent of pass plays, the lowest rate in the league, and had a league-average 34 sacks. However, when the Bills did hurry a quarterback, they made it count, with the best defensive DVOA in the league on plays with a quarterback hurry. A heavy opponent adjustment was part of the reason for Buffalo’s strong metrics; facing offenses like New England and New Orleans, the Bills’ average sack total translated into a top ten Adjusted Sack Rate, and the Bills’ pass defense DVOA would go from -21.3% to -13.9% without opponent adjustments. But that still would have ranked third in the league, indicating that Buffalo’s high rank is not an issue of opponent adjustments being too strong. No one specific player stands out either, except perhaps for Rookie of the Year (Clean Drug Test Division) Jairus Byrd. That means that the best explanation for Buffalo’s success was scheme — the scheme the new Bills administration promptly chucked out the window, designed by the interim head coach who is now plying his trade downstate. And while strong pass defense is a reason for optimism, the pass defense is also likely to regress a bit, considering that the Bills ranked just 22nd in pass defense DVOA in 2008 — you know, when their defense was populated by all those guys whose return from injury is supposed to make fans optimistic about 2010. As for the long term, we have yet to broach this team’s massive business problems. Buffalo is the 52nd-largest television market in the U.S. and the second-smallest in the NFL (and let’s be honest, the real television market for the Packers is 35th-ranked Milwaukee). The team still sells out all home games, but those tickets are among the lowest-priced in the league. The Toronto experiment has been a flop: “A sports marketing disaster of epic proportions,” according to Globe and Mail columnist Stephen Brunt. The once-a-year game was so darn popular in 2008 that the Bills cut Toronto ticket prices by an average of 17 percent before this year’s game against the Jets. And the Bills are right in the middle of the large market- vs.-small market infighting over revenue sharing that could help lead to a player lockout in 2011. These issues do a good job of explaining why the head coach in Buffalo is someone no other team was considering. Ralph Wilson simply doesn’t have the money to bring a big-name coach to his team. The Buffalo Bills have now gone ten seasons without making the playoffs. Unless the rest of the AFC East completely collapses, 2010 will extend that streak to 11. Usually that’s one louder, but when a team falls in Buffalo, it doesn’t make a sound. " Aaron Schatz

Haha, no - victories do it for me more than anything else. I'm VERY concerned about losing him and having him be a dominant #1 somewhere else. (and having to buy yet another Bills jersey)

On W/L record in was 6th - which still seems harder than this year. But last year we had 6 games against teams that were in the playoffs in 2008. This year we have 8 teams that were in the playoffs, not to mention Road games @ Vikings, Pack, Ravens, Cincy. Maybe I shouldn't have said WAY harder, but it is a worse schedule even though our opponents teams are .500 vs. 2009 when they were .570

The practice shifted to 11-on-11 work. Marshawn Lynch opened it with a good gainer on a sweep around right tackle. Could it be?? Marshawn starting things off?? Yes I'm getting giddy to prove so many people wrong that he should be our #1 back.

This will be huge. Great point, and great overall post except: -Our schedule is harder this year, esp. on the road. We could see tons of improvement and still be 8-8. -Lynch is a better RB than Freddie, and with certainly a better future

Crazy thing is -- we could go 5-11 and still have lots of improvement on both sides of the ball. Our schedule is harder than last year, especially our road schedule.

This year's schedule is WAY harder. Win-able games in bold: @Vikes, Packers, Ravens, Cincy, Chiefs, Jets, Fins, Pats Home vs: Steelers, Jags, Bears, Lions, Browns, Jets, Fins, Pats Win 6 of the 10 win-able games (not like we're favored of course), + 2 (more) upsets = 8-8 I know all games are win-able, I just sayin...it's a brutal road year this year. I love how the Jets and Pats get to play the Vikings and Packers at home and we don't. Weeks 5-11 will be HUGE for the Bills: Jags, bye, @ Balt, @ KC, Bears, Lions, @ Cincy -- we need to win 5 of those 6. if we want to make playoffs.

AMEN!!!!!!!

It's a stretch, no doubt. But Trent wasn't the starter to start his rookie year either. God why am I even talking about this, Brees is way better than Trent. I was just trying to hope we could resemble the 2006 Saints after I saw a Subway ad with CJ.

True. Trent is entering his 4th season. Brees had 11 TDs and 15 INTs his 3rd year, with a passer rating of 67.5. Brees' breakthrough year(s) were 4 and 5. That's why I said based on his "tenure." I can only hope that Trent will match Drew's development, but I won't bet the house on it.

my fault...that one goes to the Saints!

OK having 2nd thoughts about coaching match up - Payton at least was there for a few years before becoming HC, and they weren't doing as much of an overhaul. Also, strength of schedule is about a toss up: 2006 Saints = opponents had 2005 winning record of .539 (T2), 5 games vs. 2005 playoff teams 2010 Bills = .500 (T16th), 8 games vs. 2009 playoff teams

Maybe I'm late to the party on this one, but it looks like CJ joined the Subway team, just like Reggie. http://tigernet.com/view/story.do?id=8704 Do you think he'll have a better rookie year? (see bills vs saints depth chart below) Reggie's rookie year rushing: G Att Att/G Yds Avg Yds/G TD Lng 1st 1st% 20+ 40+ FUM 16 155 9.7 565 3.6 35.3 6 18 27 17.4 0 0 2 Rookie year Receiving: G Rec Yds Avg Yds/G Lng TD 20+ 40+ 1st FUM 16 88 742 8.4 46.4 74 2 5 2 32 0 Rookie year punt returns: G Ret RetY Avg Lng TD 20+ 40+ FC FUM 16 28 216 7.7 65T 1 3 1 2 0 In 2005 the Saints were 3-13. In 2006 they hired Payton as new coach, and Bush was their first pick. Sounds a little familiar. They went 10-6 and won a playoff game. 2006 Saints depth chart vs. 2010 Bills Offense SAINTS WR Marques Colston vs Evans = toss up LT Jammal Brown vs Bell = Saints LG Jamar Nesbit vs Levitre = toss up (generous) C Jeff Faine vs Hangartner = Bills RG Jahri Evans vs Wood = Bills RT Jon Stinchcomb vs Green = Saints (unless Green stops jumping offsides) TE Ernie Conwell vs Nelson/Stupar = Bills WR Joe Horn vs ?? = Saints QB Drew Brees vs. Trent = Saints, only from what we now know - at Trent's current tenure, Drew looked the same. RB Deuce McAllister vs Freddie or Lynch = Bills (and it should be Lynch fyi ) FB Mike Karney vs Cory M = toss up (although Cory was the backup FB for the Saints in 2006) Defense (not apples to apples I know) LDE Charles Grant vs Stroud = Bills? NT Hollis Thomas vs Williams/Troup = generous toss up DT Brian Young vs Edwards = Saints RDE Will Smith vs Kelsay = Bills SLB Scott Fujita vs Davis = Saints MLB Mark Simoneau vs Poz = Bills (if healthy) WLB Scott Shanle vs Torbor/Maybin = tossup LCB Mike McKenzie vs McGee = Saints (sorry) SS Omar Stoutmire vs Whitner = Bills FS Josh Bullocks vs Bryd = Bills RCB Fred Thomas vs Florence/McKelvin = Bills Special Teams = Bills Coaching = 2006 was Paytons 1st gig as a head coach - so at the time, gotta go with the Bills. Wildcard = post Katrina emotions brought the team together, but no one on the Wall seems to take much stock in leadership or inspiration (see "Will Chan inspire like Marv?") Can we pull it together like the 2006 Saints??? Am I off on something on matchups or depth charts? GO BILLS

From BB website about tonight's practice - crazy -- and I know they are facing a weak pass attack, but I believe they are still top 5 in the NFL ------------ All in all it was a heck of a day for the safeties with Byrd (2 INTs), Scott (1 INT, 1 FR) and Whitner (2 INTs) all recording a pair of takeaways on the day. The secondary is looking downright scary for opposing passing games.

you draft 'em, I'll develop them, coach them, and lead them to multiple Super Bowls.. ya know if it was all the players and GM, why don't you blame them for losing instead of Marv? here you go: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dkt2D7MFClI

Bruce showed up his rookie year 22 years old, overweight and with an attitude and had 6.5 sacks -- Marv went to work on him and the next years he had 15, 12, 11, 13 and 19. Is it possible that Jim, Andre, and Thurman (all came to him as rookies) benefited from his leadership and development? How many other teams have gone to 4 straight? Nothing to do with leadership? Are you sure you weren't just breathing in too many exhaust fumes from your AC before commenting on Marv?

I'm as upset as anyone that we lost the SBs, but how in the world can you say Marv didn't win???? This team was dominant - Dallas was better, we got out played against the Skins, and you know the rest. It takes a true leader to turn talent into champions - albeit AFC Champions. Obviously you cannot win without talent, but talent alone won't do it. Especially in the NFL - the talent pool/speed etc is too great. A true leader takes a team (or person/sales team/etc) to a place they wouldn't have gone on their own, and creating a culture of winning. Marv did that, and you have to imagine the challenge he had in keeping them focused to keep going back! Could you possible imagine how hard it is to keep 50 guys that fired up?! Why do you think the love him, quote him, etc to this day? Give the man the respect he deserves!!!

Wow, a lot of posts that have no clue about the importance of leadership...

Just watched an old DVR of "America's Game" on the 1990 Bills from the NFL Network... Great stuff and pulls at all the emotions... I thought I'd share the poem Marv quoted after the first loss: “Fight on, my men,” Sir Andrew Said ”A little I’m hurt but not yet slain. ”I’ll just lie down and bleed a while, ”And then I’ll rise and Fight again.” GO BILLS!!! It's our time to turn this thing around...

Great stuff Mike: Question: Give me your best summary of Marshawn Lynch. Everything I read is great about him -- how's his attitude, work ethic, performance?

I fear nothing more than a week 1 concussion. I hope Chan creates an offense to protect him... His 5-1 start in 2008, given against struggling teams, is a sign of what he is capable of and he's only improved. Am I correct in thinking that there is no way they'll keep 4 QB's? I don't see how they could risk dumping Fitz and cutting Brown just seems silly. Say what you will, Fitz has been around and can win from time to time if TE goes down again.